저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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Cathie Wood은 금리 인하와 규제 완화로 경기순환 회복(롤링 리세션 탈출)이 예상되며, 생산성 향상이 인플레이션을 낮출 것이라 주장. 테슬라는 로보택시·휴머노이드 로봇 중심으로 전환 중이며 6/12 로보택시 실행이 핵심이라 봄. 비트코인은 장기보유자 MVRV 기준 $140,000 부근이 심리적 목표로 제시됨. 테슬라 일부 매도 사실도 언급.
다듬은 글
Hey guys, welcome to Everyday Finance. Kathy Wood offers a comprehensive analysis of the state of the financial system, covering topics ranging from the recent market surge to more profound macroeconomic factors influencing the future. She analyzes how the Fed's changing stance on inflation and interest rates reflects a larger shift away from aggressive tightening and toward possible easing could release enormous amounts of liquidity into growth sectors.
In her analysis of the inflation battle, she contends that policymakers who are still using antiquated models are ignoring productivity gains and technological deflation. would also delves into Illan Musk's most recent audacious predictions, especially those pertaining to Tesla's energy, robotics, and artificial intelligence road maps, which she believes are essential to a generational change in capital allocation and innovation.
According to her, Tesla is evolving from a car manufacturer to a hub for disruptive technologies that have the potential to completely transform entire sectors. According to Wood, a new economic paradigm is upon us, one in which macroeconomic errors and exponential innovation collide to produce both risk and previously unheard of opportunities.
Understanding where the future is being built and putting yourself in a position before the mainstream catches up are more important than short-term market movements. Well, I think we have been um climbing a wall of worry. I mean, a lot of people expected tariffs and wars and and the the uh the controversy between the Fed and the president to to really shake markets up.
And of course, there has been some volatility. Uh but uh these are the kinds of bull markets that I think are are the most durable. When the market climbs through all of that controversy, um it's really signaling something. And I think the the the things that it is signaling are interest rates probably are coming down.
Uh and if I think what many people are are not focused on in the in the inflation statistics are the housing numbers. Uh and they get in there with a long lag. uh we think that uh that the shift or the concentration towards just a very few stocks which was a very unhealthy bull market uh that that is changing and the market is broadening out and I think deregulation is uh is is probably one of the most important things that this administration is doing uh to unleash animal spirits.
Yes. Um well, I think um we've been pretty consistent on this idea of we've been through a rolling recession. If you look at housing, which is actually having a little bit of a relapse today, housing uh plummeted in 2022 when interest rates shot up and it has not recovered. Manufacturing has not recovered.
uh uh and and so we do believe that they will recover as interest rates come down, deregulation takes hold, uh some certainty about tax cuts and so forth um uh occur including immediate expensing perhaps of capital goods which would be very positive. So we think we'll move from a a rolling recession into a recovery.
uh but what what happens early in a recovery if that's if you will allow me to call this that I know many people think we never went into any kind of slump but we have sector by sector what typically happens when you come out of a recovery is productivity kicks in uh because companies have been very conservative uh and especially amid all of the uncertainty so productivity kicks in and actually drives inflation down much lower than anybody anticipates.
Uh, and I think that's going to happen this time as well. Well, I I think I think what happened um and this could be considered a conspiracy theory, but you know, uh with Trump and Musk so close at one point, uh and with China, uh President Trump's primary focal point when it came to trade negotiations at the end of the day, um you know, Tesla's plants, uh plant in Shanghai became a leverage point.
So I think they've separated naturally. Now I think I think it went a little overboard in terms of the drama. Uh and I think the same is true today. Uh I I do think uh that Elon Musk is getting back to business and he does want to transform transportation. Uh continue to trans uh form space exploration uh really uh address some incredibly difficult health issues with with Neuralink uh and and introduce productivity the likes we have never seen with humanoid robots.
So I think at the end of the day he'll become very focused on those very difficult uh problems. Uh and this two shall pass. I guess uh in terms of dependence on government uh space X I believe has $22 billion in government contracts uh and really is uh has has catapulted the US into the lead when it comes to space exploration.
I don't think the president that formed the space force wants to change that. Uh and in terms of transportation, uh of course we've got a patchwork quilt of 50 states from a regulatory point of view that have to bless uh autonomous travel. Uh we were thinking and still think that that will move up to the federal level.
uh and uh so maybe that's maybe that's in question very short term but we think it makes sense for the United States if we want to be number one in autonomous travel uh FDA is another consideration when it comes to Neurolink you know I think what's happening is pretty miraculous if you've been following Neurolink uh and the FDA if anything if I I think we've been most surprised by the deregulation that is taking place within healthcare and the desire of the leaders in healthcare uh to really either cure disease uh get rid of chronic decision uh uh conditions.
So you know Elon Musk is contributing to that cause as well. So, uh, you know that I'm sure there's political tit for tat. Uh, that's how these things work out. But, uh, Elon Musk is working on the largest AI projects in the world, the largest projects in the world. And I don't think longer term he wants to be thrown off um really transforming the world.
According to new data from CryptoQuant, before long-term holders, those who have owned Bitcoin for more than 6 months experience the same level of euphoria as at previous bull market peaks in 2024, the price of the cryptocurrency may need to hit the $140,000 mark. Many of these seasoned investors have been taking profits even though Bitcoin has recently reached new all-time highs, suggesting that the psychological payoff of earlier surges hasn't yet been matched by the current rally.
The MVRV ratio, a crucial indicator that contrasts the current price of Bitcoin with the price at which each coin last moved, is at the heart of the analysis. Even though the typical long-term holder has gained roughly 220%, the profit margins of 300 to 350% during the March and December highs are still significantly higher.
Dark Foss, a contributor to CryptoQuant, claims that this gap has produced a gravitational pull around the tilda dollar14 level, a price point that now serves as the market's psychological and financial target. This discrepancy between new all-time highs and comparatively small realized profits tells a more complex tale.
Despite the rally strength, the most patient and astute Bitcoin investors have not yet been entirely satisfied, but overall sentiment is still positive. Bitcoin's recent recovery from a multi-week decline is cited by analysts such as WCT Capital as evidence that the market is picking up steam and may be preparing for a significant peak in the current cycle.
Everyone is still watching the $140,000 range as consolidation continues in long-term holders either hold firm or gradually release pressure. This is because it's not just a speculative price target. It could also be the tipping point for the emergence of true long-term euphoria. Uh we did all told net uh sell nearly a half a billion dollars of Tesla expecting uh some other reason for volatility.
Uh so we we try to use the volatility to our advantage. And of course as Tesla was taking off after the election, there were other stocks uh that uh were not. And so we recycled and and so forth. Um just to finish off the scoring system, uh in terms of people management and culture, some might question, should our score there, uh go down?
Well, as I just mentioned, we've lived with Elon uh and through many cycles and um we are used to this as as you will remember uh the SEC uh did come after him. That was the one time we dropped the score because that was going to be a huge distraction for everyone. Uh the board employees, Elon Musk himself, uh the management team.
Uh and and we pretty much have left the score there uh for this kind of reason. Uh the second is execution. Uh I think the robo robo taxi is our big focus here. Uh June 12th is the day. Uh so let's see how that goes and how how uh we change that score over time. The other is product and service leadership.
That one has come down as um as Tesla has lost some EV share uh because of all of the drama and uh we are betting that the news cycle is going to change here and move towards robo taxis uh to to change that score and move it back up and moes and barriers to entry. This is where it's going to be very hard to beat Tesla uh at robo taxis and at humanoid robots and that's becoming a bigger part of the story than even we had been modeling in.
Uh so stay tuned for that. Um, and as I mentioned, dialing down exposure as the stock sword is part of active management in the ETF rapper. Uh, which before we really happened upon the scene in 2014, wasn't even a thing. Uh, most of the ETF world was passive. But now as I'm sure you all know uh a lot of other uh management teams are uh moving towards the ETF rapper as well.
So just felt we should uh explain a little bit uh uh given all of the drama out there and how much Tesla's uh stock price did drop uh yesterday on Thursday, the day before employment Friday. It's rebounding nicely now. And so, uh, let's see what happens here. Uh, as far as the rest of fiscal policy, Michael Sailor's impactful eight-word statement asterisk, "Everyone gets Bitcoin at the price they deserve," has reignited the cryptocurrency world.
The quote has gone viral because it is straightforward, incisive, and profoundly meaningful. But it is much more than just a catchy catchphrase. embodies Sailor's steadfast belief which was developed via audacious multi-billion dollar action as well as words. Under his direction, Micro Strategy now owns more than 597,000 BTC which is valued at almost tilda 64 billion with an average buyin of only tilda dollar 7,982 per coin.
This astounding position puts the company up over 50% and solidifies it as the most successful institutional holder of Bitcoin as well as its most outspoken corporate advocate. Sailor views price and timing as lived realities supported by enormous financial wages and an enterprise valuation that is currently close to tilda dollar 120 billion rather than as theoretical concepts.
Currently, Bitcoin makes up over 61% of Micro Strategy's value, and the company's stock NSTR is trading at about $373.30, which is highly impacted by the performance of BTC. His message is unambiguous. The outcome is ultimately determined by one's belief in Bitcoin and the guts to act on it. In the meantime, Bitcoin has experienced extreme volatility following a historic quarter close of about $17,146.
The market swiftly fell back to about $15,100 before starting to rise again, leaving traders unsure if this is the beginning of a new rally or just more noise. Sailor's philosophy, however, cuts through the commotion regardless of transient changes. His quote is a challenge as well as a viral one. He suggests that the cost of purchasing Bitcoin is a reflection of your knowledge, your belief, and your readiness to accept what he views as the most revolutionary financial system of our time.
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