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Uh so that is also something the Fed uh pays a lot of attention to. When all is said and done, when you uh tally it all together, including the 0.4% average hourly earnings increase, uh income is fine. Uh but it's just dispersed uh um you know it's been skewed as we know towards the higher income uh level and that skewing probably is continuing as we move into toward the end of what we're calling this rolling recession.
Hey guys, welcome to Everyday Finance. Major players in the Bitcoin market are beginning to take action and the signals they are sending could signal the start of a massive upheaval in the cryptocurrency market. At 3.57 million BTC, whale wallets, which are usually held by institutions, wealthy people, and long-term strategic investors, are getting closer to reaching their peak of 3.74 million BTC in 2021.
This modest but significant accumulation demonstrates the growing conviction of smart money which sees every decline as a window for strategic buying rather than as a cause for alarm. Their actions are successfully removing supply from the market, offering solid price support and possibly setting up Bitcoin for its next big surge.
Bitcoin miners, meanwhile, are in a difficult situation. Recently, a minor capitulation warning was flashed by the hash ribbons indicator, a popular signal used to monitor minor health. This usually indicates that miners are under pressure and might have to sell Bitcoin to pay for operating expenses, which would be detrimental in the short term.
However, historically, a strong price recovery has frequently followed this stage. Why? because it tightens the supply, pushes out weaker miners, and lessens selling pressure. All of which create the conditions for significant upward movements. While all of this is going on, technical indicators such as the development of a bullish cup and handle pattern indicate that Bitcoin may soon break through $18,000.
The charts suggest a potential moonshot toward about $120,000 if it does. As far as the rest of fiscal policy uh all eyes on the bill and when it will or will not be passed. Uh we do think it will be passed. Uh and uh the question is will it be by July 4th uh as President Trump is hoping or in August as we're hitting up against the debt ceiling?
Well, the way Congress works is it it responds to pressures much like the debt ceiling. Uh so our bet is on August and with that clarity um we will have you know a lot of uncertainty taken off uh the table. Most importantly uh the the tax hike that would otherwise occur automatically at the end of the year.
uh and so businesses um will probably make more decisions and in fact if uh if there's immediate expensing of uh equipment and structures uh then that alone could take the effective corporate tax rate uh down to 14 or 15% which is one of the uh president's goals. Um now let's go to monetary policy. Uh uh but in terms of thinking about um uh chairman J Pal's testimonies recently, he's really focusing on core core consumption and core investment and you know not looking at trade inventories, government spending and uh some noncore uh consumption and investment.
So uh and in the first quarter while real GDP was negative uh 0.2%. Uh this measure of core that uh um chairman Powell is focused on was up more than 3%. Uh now if you take out everything that hit GDP of course it's going up. uh well in the second quarter uh according to GB GDP now uh it's going to slow down that metric is going to slow down to 2% but core investment alone is dropping down 2.2% 2% capital spending is getting hit.
Again, companies are pulling back until there's more certainty. Um, and so, uh, I think that measure will, uh, give chairman Powell pause, especially if inflation remains well behaved despite tariffs. And what we have seen recently is that companies have been uh taking the hit more to their margins than trying to get pricing through.
And why would that be? Well, the consumer is fed up with high prices. And we're seeing a lot of companies report uh increased prices, but unit growth dropping. uh and that's in uh the uh necessity space as well as in the luxury space. uh so I think uh I think companies are uh changing their behavior a bit here.
Um, and you'll see when we go to the charts, it seems as though the high yield spread is saying all the coast is clearing here for a uh a nice recovery when we have more certainty um from the tax policy and tariffs of course. Uh on to economic indicators. Well, employment Friday, something for everyone, as has been the case in most employment reports over these last few years during what we've been calling this rolling recession.
This one was no different. You had non-farm payroll uh employment up 190 uh 139,000, which looked better than the 125,000 expected. Uh but when taking into account the 95,000 in revisions, that was a disappointing report. And um it's also important important to remember that a nearly a 100,000 of those 139,000 were due to the so-called birth death ratio of businesses.
So new business openings and those get revised. So I think the employment numbers are going to be revised fairly significantly um when we we look uh uh backwards in time they they revise those on that basis uh I think every five years. Uh the other thing uh that we learned is that the diffusion index for employment uh is right at 50%.
So half of the employment categories are increasing and half are decreasing. That's down from 80% increasing uh in uh the I at the peak in 2122 and uh I think 70% compared to the peak in 201718. So quite a bit below that. We also saw household employment, and I don't believe this number at all, but down almost 700,000.
And the labor force down almost 700,000. That's that's uh flaky. Um I'm sure that's uh there's there's some mismeasurement there. Um and we had uh uh besides the number of industries showing uh declines, we saw the participation rate uh dropping here. Uh so that is also something the Fed uh pays a lot of attention to.
When all is said and done, when you uh tally it all together, including the 0.4% average hourly earnings increase, uh income is fine. uh but it's just dispersed uh um you know it's been skewed as we know towards the higher income uh level and that skewing probably is continuing as we move into toward the end of what we're calling this rolling recession.
More than just statistics drove last week's crypto drama. It became politicized as Bitcoin briefly fell below $11,000. A sudden public dispute between Elon Musk and Donald Trump shook investor confidence and led to a wave of liquidations, wiping out nearly $1 billion from overleveraged positions. However, rather than plummeting even more, Bitcoin made a spectacular comeback, swiftly rising back above $15,000.
This V-shaped recovery demonstrated strong underlying buying power in addition to price, supporting the notion that Bitcoin is becoming a more reliable asset. Institutions and traders seem to have greater faith in its longterm direction and demand is responding quickly to declines. Bullish patterns are gaining momentum and technical are supporting this story as well.
Bitcoin may experience a price acceleration that converts short-term volatility into long-term gain if it is able to break significant resistance levels. All of this is taking place as open interest and futures market interest are increasing, indicating that major players are setting up for the next big move.
Here you can see home sellers uh versus home buyers. home sellers in green and home buyers in purple. And there's a a big imbalance uh developing here. Uh suggesting that the market is very weak and that the buyers are probably not going to move unless they have a good reason even either interest rates come down or prices come down.
And uh you can see here what's going on with volume very low by historical standards. I can tell you in in the late 70s when I was in college and started in this business uh this metric was at 5 million units and uh and to see it at 4 million now after years and years of population growth is really really saying something.
Uh you can also see here pricing. So again many people fear that uh inflation will con will go up for all kinds of reasons. One of them is uh the supply demand imbalance in the new uh home sale space. Um and uh in the existing homes uh what we're seeing is prices decelerating. The reason this is important is this gets into uh the CPI indirectly and into the PCE indirectly.
Um PCE core I think it uh housing accounts for 15 to 17% of that index. Uh PCE total I think it is close to 25%. Allin shelter in the uh CPI is roughly 40% of that index. Uh here you can see new uh uh family one family homes sold. They have they have come back in uh in tandem as interest rates went up.
Uh they they they stalled and uh you can see new home sales are well below the peaks. certainly during the housing bubble and they're kind of middling. If you go back to the 70s again, they're at that level which is really quite astonishing. Uh and here you can see what's happening with new home prices.
They are falling. So this again is going to get into the price indicators. uh it gets in with a lag, but it's been going on for long enough now that uh uh think we think we're going to see it soon. And and you'll have more people talking about deflation then. Not for a great reason. Uh this is, you know, buyers just saying, "No, we're not going to we're not going to buy unless you give us a better price, sellers." So, as the sellers pile up, probably having no choice, they'll probably cut their prices.
Uh now into market indicators. So starting with the dollar, we hear so much talk about how horribly weak the dollar is. Well, if you look at this chart in the context of history, and I know we go through this every time uh but we keep hearing that that uh mantra, that narrative uh is just not true. If you look over the last 15 years, we've gone from roughly 70 to 100.
And taking out the bubble in the early 80s, we're closer to the top end of a very long-term range than we are to the bottom. And uh you can see this on the next page. Uh in Bloomberg Commodity Price Index um is still going nowhere. it is where it was in the early 2000s, the early 90s, the early 80s.
Uh so this is not an inflationary period. The period from 2000 to 2010 was highly inflationary by this metric and um and by uh the measure of gold. Well, gold certainly looks like it's uh um playing its role as a hedge against inflation, but other prices are not following gold. And amidst all of this market activity, there is a much more serious and perilous issue.
The US federal debt has skyrocketed to an alarming approximately $ 34 trillion with an additional 11 trillion added in the last four years alone. Even more worrisome is the fact that interest payments alone now account for half of the federal deficit. A development that is starting to raise red flags on Wall Street.
Jaime Diamond, the CEO of JP Morgan Chase, didn't mince words when he said that the US debt situation is a real problem. The Federal Reserve may also be compelled to resume aggressive monetary stimulus, which would flood the economy with new fiat and increase inflation if the US Treasury market collapses under the weight of ongoing debt issuance.
In this case, Bitcoin becomes a financial safe haven rather than merely a speculative asset. Although other cryptocurrency assets like Ethereum, Salana, and Cardano might also gain, Bitcoin stands out as a digital stronghold due to its decentralized structure and limited supply. GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen has already invested over $500 million in Bitcoin, describing it as a potent inflation hedge, demonstrating that institutions are starting to take notice.
Bitcoin might fully assume its role as digital gold if this debt crisis worsens and fiat currency declines. And the potential for growth could surpass even the most optimistic forecasts.
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