저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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Fed가 금리를 100bp 인하하면 이자비용 약 3000억달러 절감, 자본이득세 증가로 약 300억달러 추가 세수 등 총 약 6000억달러 재정 개선이 가능하며, 이는 미국 자산으로의 자금 유입과 위험자산 랠리로 이어질 수 있다고 주장. 크립토 측면에서는 Fed 인하가 유동성 확대를 가져와 비트코인 등 가상자산 강세 촉매가 될 수 있다는 논리를 제시. 단, 금리 인하 시점과 인플레이션 추이에 전적으로 의존한다고 단서를 달았다.
다듬은 글
Why? Because we can't focus on that conversation, Jason, because we're focused on how do we give amnesty to folks whose initial action was breaking the law. Absolutely correct. And this is where the whole immigration conversation devolves. We are missing the bigger picture. And you need to deal one second.
You need to deal with the illegal immigration thing in an extremely foundational way where you can defend the decision. You started illegally and you have to now go and conform to the law. Hey guys, welcome to Everyday Finance. What if I told you that without creating a single new dollar, the US government is only a few weeks away from discovering a hidden boost to its balance sheet of about $600 billion.
In the most recent episode of the All-In podcast, billionaire investor Chamath Palihapatia makes precisely that prediction. A perfect storm, according to Chamath, is developing. Rate cuts are imminent. Inflation is rapidly declining and a fiscal tailwind is subtly accumulating. One audacious question lies at the heart of this explosive claim.
Why hasn't Jerome Powell begun lowering interest rates already? According to Chimamath, pressure is increasing as inflation approaches the Fed's 2% target. If the Fed lowers interest rates by a full 100 basis points, the government could immediately save about $300 billion in interest payments on its current debt.
That's only half of it. the other half. According to Chamath, a significant increase in capital gains tax revenue could boost the Treasury's finances by an additional $30 billion. Together, they represent a fiscal swing of about $600 billion, which is sufficient to virtually instantly alter the outlook for the US budget.
Should this materialize, it may trigger a surge of capital into American assets, propel markets skyward, and alter the macro environment. We dissect Chamath's argument in detail in this video, showing how inflation patterns, Fed policy choices, and unforeseen revenue increases are coming together to create a once- ina decade financial turning point.
We'll also examine the implications for investors, how this might lead to significant capital flows, and why the upcoming Fed meeting might be the most significant event for markets this year. If Chimamath is correct, the US economy is about to undergo a dramatic change, and those who anticipate it could be in a position to benefit greatly.
Keep a close eye on things. For more videos that follow the latest developments in economic transformation, please like, share and subscribe. What he said is there are people that have worked for example on farms for 20 to 25 years or they work in the leisure industry and he said we have to take a common sense approach to those people because if you do take those people then it's creating a vacuum where these jobs could get filled by folks that are essentially criminals or other things.
So I believe that that's a reasonable starting point. What I would say is where do we go? There are seven and a half legal, not illegal, legal immigrants in the United States waiting for their adjustment of status. Those are doctors. Those are lawyers. Those are scientists. Those are family members of existing American citizens.
There's an entire body of people that I think we have to recognize that have been waiting in line and their first act in America was a legal action to come in and contribute. And every time we start this conversation, we go to the plight of people whose fundamental first action was an illegal action without understanding that there has to be actually a more balanced approach.
So yes, I think the president is right. Common sense for the folks that have now been here for a very long time, but we have to prioritize the people that started by saying we're going to wait in line properly. And then there's people in the middle. I think that there needs to be a way to give those folks a chance to get their affairs in order, but they should be playing by the rules.
Got it. And I think it's unfair to reward not playing by the rules. One example that I saw online, Jason, was give folks a stipend and a year. Yes. The stipen's been out there for a while, right? To get their affairs in order and then Kaizen said that, right? Kaizen Kaizen said that exactly. And I think I think Kaizen's clip is actually the most the most rational for the middle chunk.
But I would really focus on these legal folks and say what are we doing about those folks whose first action was to raise their hand, stand in line and say I want to contribute by the rules that America sets up. Can I say something? Because I Tucker is saying something really important which I agree with.
What should immigration be in a highly developed nation like the United States? And my perspective is you have to come and say, well, what is the goal? I think the goal should be to maintain supremacy. The United States is the most vibrant economy in the world. It's the most important military power in the world.
It's the most technically advanced entity in the world. If we do not focus on maintaining our supremacy, I don't think any American wants to go through the process of going from first to not first. And if you look back in history at all of the other countries that have had to go through that transition, that is where revolutions and chaos happen.
So we should avoid that. So where does immigration play a role? It needs to play a role first and foremost in technical, military, and economic supremacy. The problem, as Tucker says, is when you have five or six times the number of illegal immigrants as legal immigrants, all of a sudden the idea of using immigration as a cream skimming technique to reinforce the most capable people in the world to come here goes away because you can't have that conversation.
We have people languishing for 10, 15, 20 years on visas, okay? Their kids age out. They all go back to India and other places. Why? Because we can't focus on that conversation, Jason, because we're focused on how do we give amnesty to folks whose initial action was breaking the law. Absolutely correct.
And this is where the whole immigration conversation devolves. We are missing the bigger picture and you need to deal one second. You need to deal with the illegal immigration thing in an extremely foundational way where you can defend the decision. You started illegally and you have to now go and conform to the law.
Would anybody I came here because I wanted to be American and everything that American meant. If I was bigger, I would have played football. You know, like there's all these things that I would have done to assimilate more and more. I believe in the culture of the United States. That's why people should come.
What if I told you that this 600 billion shift is about a unique economic window that has the potential to completely change the macro narrative. Shamath Palihapatia is painting that larger picture. A perfect storm is brewing. According to Shamath, even though the US economy has been balancing record high debt interest with cooling inflation and slow growth, the Fed has the political cover it needs to cut interest rates due to declining inflation, which could have a devastating effect on the financial system.
Rate cuts send a strong message to the world that the tightening cycle is over. They are more than just small adjustments. Stocks, cryptocurrency, venture capital, everything could see a sharp risk on rally if Powell pulls the trigger. Overnight, investor sentiment could change, business investment could soar, and borrowing would become more affordable.
The deeper twist is that Shamath is discussing more than just monetary policy. He is highlighting a change in the economy. The federal balance sheet will receive a lifeline if the US government can reduce interest expenses by about $300 billion and collect an additional $300 billion from booming capital gains taxes.
This implies more space for investments, stimulus, or even debt repayment. It's a secret turning point with farreaching effects. None of this is assured, though. Everything depends on the Fed taking decisive action, inflation remaining under control, and markets responding as Chimamath anticipates. If those factors come together, a completely new economic cycle may begin in the second half of 2025, one in which growth picks up speed, liquidity is unrestricted, and investors who are watching now have the opportunity to ride the wave before it bursts open.
wrong. Yeah, the wrong people won in the early in the early 2000s. I think that there was a war of ideas and there was a group of people that advocated for this reckless form of free trade and this globalist view like every country is going to meld into one mega monolith country organization that'll get governed out of New York by the United Nations and its slave organizations.
And that worldview won. But it was the wrong worldview. And it didn't acknowledge that we have competing philosophies, competing priorities, competing ideals of what the future looks like. And I think that we need to go back and reset all of those things. If you just take where we are, if you can just put the Sanki diagram back up, there's a couple things that are really worth noting that people need to fundamentally understand.
I said a couple weeks ago that I thought the GDP print was going to come in hot. I think everybody now is sort of where I am. So, let me give you the next thing. Ask you though, why is it hot? Do you have a thesis on why GDP spikes so much or potentially did obviously a forecast I don't know the puts and takes yet?
And I think when we see the print, we have I have a way of forecasting this stuff, which is a bunch of signals that my team and also many macro teams all around the world, the bond vigilantes to the hedge fund guys, they all feed it to me. And what I was noticing was that we were going to come in, I said in the low 3s.
And I think, you know, if Atlanta Fed is right, I don't think they are, but I think it's going to be in the low to mid-3s. is going to be meaningfully greater than what people are expecting. So let me just give you my next prediction. My next prediction are two really important things. What this Sanki diagram looks at which is a snapshot of the balance sheet and the health of the United States in May misses in my opinion two very important things that have to change.
The first and this is a positive for the Trump administration and the United States economy is we are run rating 300 to400 billion dollar above forecast in terms of our receipts meaning the revenues that we will take in and you get to that number by looking at the last three months of tariffs and forecasting forward assuming a reasonable balance here.
So, back to Tucker's point. Yeah, we all thought that this was like a boogeyman that you weren't allowed to touch it and that if you touched the stove, you were going to get burned. The mathematical reality is that this is actually going to work out much better for us than we anticipated and it's going to be somewhere in the range of 300 to 400 billion of extra revenue per year.
That's a huge win. So, why is that important? That then sets up this next cataclysmic thing that we're going to see over the next 60 days, which is what does Jerome Powell do? If Jerome Powell stays politicized, his incentive will be to keep interest rates where they are. If Jerome Powell looks at the conditions on the ground, especially when you start to see inflation stay in the low twos and approach 2.0, The real thing that he's going to be under tremendous pressure to justify is why are you not cutting?
And just to give you a sense of how important that is, if we cut by 100 basis points, that's another $300 billion. Now, in that case, that's not money that we get in, but it's money we don't have to spend. So if you add these two things together, we are in the next 60 days going to have to reforcast the American balance sheet where this is or we're actually going to be able to positively forecast an extra 600 billion.
300 billion of incremental revenue and 300 billion of savings. Jason, if that happens, watch out. What does that mean, watch out? It means that every single risk dollar is going to run to America. Every single one. Yum. Yum. Forget Japan. Forget Europe. There is no place to put your money except the United States.
So, I think that we have to figure out how to get Jerome Powell on the side of America versus on the side of what could happen politically. Because I think that there's probably a version in his head that says, "My gosh, if I do this, it helps Trump and if I don't do it, it hurts Trump." Practically, that is true.
But the reality is the conditions on the ground justify cutting. I believe that these decisions are political. I think that the Federal Reserve has veered away from actually controlling the money supply in the best long-term interests of the United States and more towards what benefits the short term.
And this ties back to how I started this. What is Pal's motivation? Somewhere in the 2000s, Jason, we transitioned away from having the strategic 20-year conversation about what's in the best interest of America, and instead we started to have these uniolar globalist conversations. And the people that got into these centers of power, the IMF, the World Bank, the Federal Reserve, the central banks around the world, they all worked towards an agenda that is now being undone.
I'll give you an example of where this is now being undone. Just today, the World Bank undid a rule around being able to fund nuclear energy. And you would have thought, well, hold on a second. The World Bank steps in to backs stop all these developing countries when they're in the middle of all this nonsense, right?
And if you think about a country that's developing, what is the single biggest input to that country? Energy. And you think for the last 40 years of multi-t trillion dollar bailouts, we never demanded abundant clean energy in the developing world? Of course not, because it was a political decision. What if I told you that the next cryptocurrency super cycle may be underway and that everything depends on a single Fed action?
David Saxs and Chamath Palihapatia are describing the highstakes scenario. Historical evidence and a deep understanding of politics, policy, and market psychology support this thesis. It goes beyond speculation. One simple but powerful catalyst is a Fed rate cut of 100 basis points. It could mark the end of tightening and the start of a liquidity resurgence.
So, it won't just affect interest rates. This is huge for crypto investors. History shows what happens when the Fed is dovish. Bitcoin rose from $5,000 to almost $65,000 in one year after the Fed cut interest rates to zero in March 2020. Even during a weaker 2019 easing cycle, Bitcoin doubled. Why? Because liquidity fuels speculation and cryptocurrency is its first manifestation.
If Powell signals the return of easy money, treasuries lose their appeal and cryptocurrency becomes the high octane bet institutions cannot ignore. However, it is deeper. Another benefit of a rate cut is political momentum. Washington may emphasize innovation, growth, and technological leadership if the economy improves.
These traits have historically increased cryptocurrency adoption. This means venture capitalbacked blockchain projects, tokenized assets, DeFi platforms, and stable coins could catch fire. Not just Bitcoin optimism, capital rotation, and reflation are driving an ecosystemwide upswing. As reflexivity takes over, markets rise and cryptocurrency becomes a leveraged proxy for global risk appetite.
Thus, the question is, are we on the verge of a new regime? Not will the Fed cut? If Chamath and Sachs are right, cryptocurrency may benefit most. Will Powell resign under political pressure? Will inflation data approve him? Will fear paralyze the Fed? Discuss in the comments. To be the first to know about the next cryptocurrency market shift, like, subscribe, and enable notifications. This could start something
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