저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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금 강세와 금광주 매수를 강하게 주장한 영상이다. 결론: 고인플레 환경에서는 과거 버블기 성장주 전략이 통하지 않으며, 금과 금광주 중심 포트폴리오가 유리하다고 본다. 시장 환경: 비트코인이 3만 달러 수준을 지키지 못했고, 테슬라도 10% 급락하는 등 위험자산 랠리가 끝났을 수 있다고 진단한다. 시장이 금리 인하 기대를 너무 앞서 반영했다고 본다. 금 전망: 금이 2000달러 아래로 떨어질 때마다 신규 매수세가 들어와 하방이 제한된다고 본다. 각국 중앙은행의 금 매입과 달러 탈피 흐름을 근거로 든다. 금 가격은 큰 폭 하락 가능성이 낮다는 입장이다. 금리 논리: 대부분 국가의 금리가 물가상승률보다 낮아 실질 마이너스 금리 상태이므로, 현금성 통화를 들고 있을 유인이 없고 금이 상대적으로 낫다고 설명한다. 투자 전략: 금 실물과 은 매수를 권하고, 보다 공격적으로는 금광주와 유로퍼시픽 골드 펀드 같은 상품을 제시한다. 금광주가 10년 전보다 낮아 상승 여력이 크다고 본다. 테슬라 평가: 큰 수익은 이미 나왔고 하방 리스크가 더 남아 있어 매도 대상이라고 본다. 캐시 우드의 포트폴리오도 현재 경제 환경과 반대라고 비판한다. 리스크: 본문에 구체적 목표가나 기간은 제시되지 않았다. 추가 금 가격 하락 시도가 있을 수 있다고만 언급했다.
다듬은 글
This Time It's Different because this time it's a period of high inflation that's very different than a period of low inflation and so everything that worked during the bubble is not going to work this time [itcoin is not acting light gold Bitcoin was not able to hold the 30 000 level I know when it first got above 30 000 all the Bitcoin holders were out in force you know they got their laser beams up again looking for a hundred thousand Bitcoin or higher I mean there's this one guy supposedly I forget who he was that made some big bet that Bitcoin was going to hit a million dollars like in a month or some short time frame and it made a lot of news now maybe he made that bet because he wanted to help push up the price of Bitcoin so he could unload a bunch of it and make a lot more money than what he threw away on that bet which may have been simply a publicity stunt to try to generate some some fomo buying into Bitcoin from people who actually thought it was possible that Bitcoin could actually get to a million dollars a Bitcoin you know in in that sort of time period uh so we've pulled back quite a bit and potentially we've seen being a high not only in Bitcoin but a lot of these risk assets I mean what happened to Tesla today and that 10 percent drop um to me looks like maybe we finally run out of room for these risk assets to Rally the reason they rallied so much was the market really got ahead of itself and looking forward at rate Cuts right well because the FED is going to be cutting rates because the economy is going into recession and everybody just expects that recession means lower inflation and so everybody was trying to get prepared for the next round of raid cuts and QE thinking that this tech stocks would be the place to be because they were the place to be the last time the FED cut rates to zero and went back to QE well I've been saying that This Time It's Different it's not going to be what worked last time that's going to work this time because this time it's a period of high inflation that's very different than a period of low inflation and so everything that worked during the bubble is not going to work this time I so you have to have a completely different portfolio than the one that worked for qe123 and four this time it's going to be the value stocks the non-us dollar denominated stocks Emerging Markets Commodities gold silver those type of portfolios Kathy Wood doesn't own any of these stocks her portfolio is the opposite of what she'd want to own for the economic environment there's been plenty attempts to hammer the gold price down it was down I think it was maybe on Tuesday where it was down 30 or so on the open but pretty much they've been selling off the price of gold every morning it's been hammered back below 2000 but as I've been saying it's not getting too far below maybe 1990 1980s in that area but anything below 2000 is bringing in new buyers and gold is at 2000 it for so they've bashed it down below 2000 several times they may try a few more times try to flush some people out but the problem is more money continues to come into the market now that's not a problem if you're long and you're expecting higher prices but if you're hoping the price of gold is going to go down or you're you know you're wanting the price to go down it ain't working Gold's not going down because too much money is coming into the market there's a lot of money on the sidelines a lot of cash out there that wants to move into gold there are a lot of countries now around the world that have a lot of dollars that they don't want they are trying to prepare for a post dollarized world where the dollar is no longer the epicenter of the global monetary system and so they have a lot of dollars that they don't need why don't they need them because we don't make products that they want to buy we have a 1 trillion dollar per year trade deficit so that's a trillion dollars that the world has every year that they don't really need now wow the dollar is the reserve currency well they'll hold on to those dollars they'll buy U.S treasuries they'll buy mortgage-backed Securities but if the dollar isn't the reserve currency if they don't need dollars to buy oil anymore or other Commodities because nations are now de-dollarizing and setting up mechanisms for bilateral trade in other currencies then was everybody going to do with these dollars get rid of them and what are you going to do uh with the proceeds of the sale I think most sellers of dollars would rather own gold than just pick another random fiat currency like the Euro or the Yen or the pound or something like that I mean just look at a chart of the price of gold gold is in a bull market in every single currency on the planet so whatever currency you're looking at if you compare it to gold gold is still better and interest rates everywhere around the world despite the fact that they've gone up pretty much every country has interest rates lower than the inflation rate so every country is offering negative interest rates well how does that compete with gold when countries were offering positive interest rates that was competition for gold because gold had no interest and so uh governments in effect said hey don't hold gold you're going to lose out on the opportunity to collect all this interest hold pound sterling hold the Euro hold the dollar right all these currencies uh the central banks were giving people an incentive to hold them now they're providing the opposite they're incentivizing everybody to buy gold if you hold British pounds you are going to lose purchasing power the inflation rate is well above the interest rate so we're not going to pay you anywhere near enough interest to offset what you're going to lose to inflation so what's your alternative buy gold everybody is now being incentivized to own gold instead of fiat currency to avoid that loss you see gold is now a higher yielding asset than any of these currencies not that it has a higher positive yield it just doesn't have as big a negative yield because gold has got a zero percent interest rate and all these other countries have a negative interest rate that's much larger than that even if you factor in the cost of storing your gold and figure okay so it's 15 basis points a year so I've got a negative yield of 0.15 that's still a higher yield than any of these currencies so that's what's going on people central banks around the world are divesting and they are building up their gold reserves and that's why you don't have a lot of downside risk in the price of gold there's too many buyers beneath the market looking to buy and they will take advantage of any opportunity that's why the opportunities are not going to get that big so if you're looking to buy a dip you may get a small dip but you're not going to get a big dip so you have to just step up and buy because the people who are too greedy who are waiting for too big a sale are going to be left out in the cold and they're not going to end up with any gold and they're just going to watch the price uh Skyrocket so I'd be buying now and again the same thing with the um the mining stocks the mining stocks have pulled back a little bit you know with gold keeps getting hammered it doesn't crack but you know these gold mining stocks are correcting now even though the price of gold is really not yes it's off its high gold got to like 2040.
so we're off the high but the fact that we keep closing above 2000 dollars an ounce to me represents significant strength that you're getting buying at this number you're not getting a rush to sell you're getting a lot of people coming in to buy because they know that 2000 is an expensive 2000 is cheap so again you want to buy your gold I've been pounding the table call up the guys at shift gold buy gold you want to be more aggressive buy silver of course they're not mutually exclusive you can buy both but if you want to get really aggressive and go for the home run and get the 10 Baggers or more you want to look at the mining stocks you want to look at the Euro Pacific gold fund you want to talk to our representatives there about buying that fund or about setting up a managed account where you have individual uh mining stocks I think this is where the biggest potential is instead of you know following Kathy Wood and buying Tesla because you think that thing is going to be a 10 bagger either you have a much better chance of making that type of return with a gold mining stock and a lot less downside risk the big money has already been made in Tesla maybe Kathy Wood hasn't noticed that right so where the big money is yet to be made is in these mining stocks because these mining stocks are much lower than they were ten years ago 15 years ago whereas Tesla has already gone up dramatically and so that stock should be sold uh and a lot of these mining stocks should be bought there may be a time in the future when Tesla's a buy but this ain't that time there's still a lot more downside risk in that stock
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