저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 그랜섬은 연준의 금리정책과 누적 부채·신뢰 붕괴가 슈퍼버블 붕괴를 촉발하며, 주식 저점은 내년 말 이후에야 나올 수 있다고 본다. 금융위기 및 버블 역사: 연준은 무언가 깨질 때까지 긴축한다는 격언을 인용. 일본·1929·2000·주택버블 등 대형 버블은 낙관, 최고 이익률, 정점 부채 확대 후 붕괴했다. 붕괴 시작점은 예측 불가하나 충격은 대개 놀랍다. 경기침체 강도: 버블 후 침체는 대체로 발생. 당국이 잘 대응하면 경미한 침체(2000년), 잘못 대응하면 공황(1929년). 서브프라임 규제 실패 등 정책 실패 사례를 비판. 주식시장 전망: 나스닥 등 지수는 인플레이션 조정 시 실제 하락폭이 더 크다고 지적. 첫 금리인하 이후 하락의 대부분이 발생하는 경향이 있어 하락 국면은 내년까지 깊게 이어질 가능성이 높다고 봄. 이익률·자본지출: 최근 20년간 자본지출 감소, 독점도 상승, 주주환원(자사주 매입) 증가로 이익률은 높으나 노동자 임금과 경제 성장은 둔화. 자사주 매입은 주가를 밀어올리는 효과가 있다고 비판. 리스크: 실물 펀더멘털 조정 깊이와 기간은 예측 불가. 인플레이션 및 실질 임금 하락 가능성. 출연자 관점: 장기 가치투자 관점에서 이익·성장을 중시하며, 단기 주가보다 펀더멘털 조정을 중요하게 봄.
다듬은 글
and so as things unravel of course the pressure the combination of declining confidence and Peak debt is a very bad one my question really is does it take the fed or would it find the weak spot anyway sooner or later in today's video billionaire and legendary investor Jeremy Grantham blames the U.S federal reserve for creating a bubble in asset prices he believes that it has a long way to go before it's fully deflated as a result stock prices may not reach bottom until late next year what are your general views about the recent banking crisis and what can history tell us of the events unfolding in the banking system and I guess the overall markets today I was reminded of the old aphorism that the FED keeps on tightening until something breaks and in a situation like this and it reminded me of a conclusion that I had come to on the study of the great bubbles to the hand folder the five or six including Japan in the last 100 years because it seems to be the same when you come down from a high the ultimate sugar high of a Super Bowl almost infinite optimism a belief that good things will go on forever that record profit margins etc etc and it's always the bubbles always form at the end of a long heroic economy and everything in the garden is perfect and it always has taken cooperation on the part of the fed and the administration so everything is perfect and then when something Pricks that confidence and it begins to to leak out there's a long way down to go from the peak of optimism to at least mild Panic if not severe Panic it's a long drop and at the top people have always in their confidence have always expanded their their debt levels so they're always Atlant near the old-time peak in 1929 or 2000 housing bubble and so on and in Japan in 89 and as they were this time this time you had record levels of debt to GDP all over the world but certainly including the US and so as things unravel of course the pressure the combination of declining confidence and Peak debt is a very bad one my question really is does it take the fed or would it find the wig spot anyway sooner or later and maybe the FED raising rates accelerates the breaking point and I think of it as like water behind a damn you you're never going to be able to predict which brick goes first in fact you should expect the unexpected by its very nature it's a complicated Financial system a complicated economic system and you build up the pressure and you build up pressure as your confidence comes down and the debt begins to herd and particularly if the FED is Raising raids and then something blows and each time it seemed to be unexpected who imagined their Sterns would go hey the bearer as we used to call them they were the guys that always inflicted the the nasty paper on other people and when the music stopped they always had a they always had one of the Jets so when best earns went in 07 it was a major surprise and Silicon Valley until you think about it and look at the balance sheet it did appear to strike the world as a complete surprise and maybe that is my point from sixty thousand feet is that is the nature of the Beast you should expect that the first thing that goes well generally speaking be a surprise and then how it Cascades is virtually unknowable but let it be said after the handful of the great bubbles that has always been a recession if people behave well the the leaders are sensible it's a mild recession 2000 was about as mild as it comes if they behave very badly and get unlucky like 1929 you get a depression if they've behave badly and refuse to regulate subprime instruments in the housing bubble where Larry summons and the boys lent on brooksley born who had the legal right to control subprime regulated on the ground you didn't need to regulate Banks they were by their nature capable of self-regulation this was the Federal Reserve levered of the SEC and Larry Summers arm wrestling to make sure that they were not regulated I'd love to bring that up because I call those guys the Teflon men and it doesn't seem to stick with them they brought the system to its knees on the mistaken beliefs that capitalism could self-regulate and what a horror show it was and anyway here we are back again and we're going to find out how good the the regulations have been since the housing bust how effective the weaseling of the corporations was to push it back we all know now how Silicon Valley CEO personally lobbied joined the lobby really to roll back the regulation so that they could be unregulated on the supposition once again somehow the capitalism is responsible enough to regulate itself well it just ain't so and capitalism needs a policeman at the corner of Broad and wall as FDR said and in recent times some of the policemen have been taking time off or being regulated off their beat would this be any indicator in your mind that we are say somewhat towards the end or or more like halfway it will make a big mistake to average all markets and bear markets that this is not about that this is about something quite singular and different that happens on rare occasions in the great bubbles the two and a half Sigma ultimate Euphoria episodes this is like a phase change people go from Fairly sensible behavior in an ordinary bull market to absolutely crazy as it could be in these great Bubbles and throw the rest of the data away and look at the bubbles and the data is clear first of all they're always easy to spot and it is always claimed that they are not but they stand out in terms of the data on the market like a Himalayan peak out of the plane two and a half standard deviation events that the kind that occur every 5200 years these are not hard to spot 1929 you had to try to miss that 2 000 Lord knows you had to try it went to 35 times earnings beating everyone on the head with a hammer the housing bubble was even bigger than that the U.S housing bubble in 06 that was a three sigma that was literally over a hundred year of Bandit had never happened before most unlikely it took the undivided attention of Greenspan and Bernanke pushing and pushing interest rates down to finally get the entire U.S housing market to go into warp drives simultaneously famously it had been Diversified before that it would bubble in Florida crash in Chicago and so on so it never happened until they got their undivided attention and so just concentrate on these few they always have a recession and when they want to take their time they really take their time most of the decline in these Great Bear markets only happens after the first interest rate cut so you tell me when the first Enterprise rate cut is then I will tell you when the second half of the pain is going to start and it it would be unlikely from a historical point of view that this was not run this financial and stock market event would not run deep into next year and that's what it that's what it looks like it's not hurrying but let me bring up another point on your chart we have forgotten to inflation the just because we haven't had inflation for 20 years in the old days all data like this everything you read in The Economist Etc was always inflation adjusted we have had for example over 10 inflation the market isn't down 15 the market is down 25.
in the housing bubble there was no inflation in 2000 there was no inflation you can't compare this one with 10 inflation with that one that had a couple and 25 is a pretty decent down payment on this bear Market I would say the passage of time against the market that has a trend line and in an economy that has inflation the passage of time is pretty painful if you even stay flat you are losing money at a decent speed and people have forgotten that the blunt truth here is I don't really care I try it and concentrate on what I consider the realities which are profits and growth and I assume that if you're patient that the paper side of it will wash through the system and we had a very obvious first phase of the bubble we print the confidence it's easy all you have to do is shake that complete and absolute Euphoria we did that it popped nicely then you have a classic bear Market rally and we we knew from the beginning didn't we that we would have more by the dip this time than almost ever before because of the trillion dollars plus lurking around in in the piggy bank from kobit stimulus and from the behavior of the meme stocks we knew this was not going to melt away too quickly and so we had the spectacular rally and we may very well have more and then you get into the third phase and that is the fundamentals and that's the difficult one how long and how painful will the actual reality the adjustment so to speak how badly will the economy slow down how badly will profit margins shrink let me point out the most genteal one was two thousand we had a very mild recession we've never had anything like a soft Landing but that was the closest that was the least hard landing and what happened that NASDAQ went down 82 s p went down 50 real estate was cheap it was not involved the bond market was cheap it was not involved everything that was favorable could be favorable and still it drowned on for three years and the NASDAQ went down 82 that is what I'm interested in profit margin Scott hammered and the growth rate slowed down moderately in the housing bubble the GDP slowed down even more profits basically disappeared completely 1929 of course was even worse so we're going to have an unknowable bad time it will depend on how effective the administration is and so on but the truth is we come into this with very high profit margins we come into it with a form of capitalism that was Raising prices for the first time ahead of the workers so they didn't unexpected inflation very quickly profit margins went up and real wages went down this is not what happened in the 70s I can assure you profit margins went down and real wages went up but this is a corporate system that we could talk about which is really quite quite interesting the American corporate system has developed a style that makes it almost possible to break the law legally the way to make a lot of money is to get on the telephone call up your competitors and withhold production the bad news is if they can't you you go to jail and what we have today increasingly now for 20 years is a style of capitalism whether stockholders are leaning on the corporations to take it easy on capex why I mean basically it generates an economy of mild shortage all the time you want to make money that is the world to live in so mile shortage all the time pressure on the workers in the good old days they always build an extra plant it was the bane of of stock analysts like me in the 60s and 70s whenever things started to improve eight paper companies would all start to build a giant plant at the same time and they would crash the prices was great for jobs great for GDP growth pretty good for productivity terrible for stockholders and now we don't the capex has dropped as a fraction of the total pretty steadily for 20 years the degree of concentration or Monopoly if you prefer has risen pretty steadily for 20 years and it's all legal because it's the stockholders breathing down your neck saying dudes buy your stock back don't build a risky new plant it might work well it might be mistimed in any case it's risky better to wait and see which of the hundreds of BC firms work out well and then grab one or two of the best ones it's a capital transaction doesn't go into the income statement all that dangerous volatility that you used to have associated with your own Endeavors you can now smooth out and wait to see who wins in any case so the profit margins have risen steadily and even in adversity they are good even in covid they're good even as the economy slows down even as in inflation unexpectedly bursts on the scene you suddenly find yourself oh what a surprise in a world of male shortage any surprise and we assured capacity and this is wonderful profits terrible for the economy terrible for equality and the wage rates of the workers who basically are still stuck back in the level of hourly rate adjusted inflation of 1975 to 1980.
that is not an exaggeration check it out and yet we have grown as fast as other countries about say France I like to say whose bottoms we have been apparently kicking for the last 40 years if you read business week because of eurosclerosis because of too much government control their average alley our work has increased its remuneration by 160 in Japan by just shy of a hundred the Dopey bridge by 60 or 70 percent and the hard driving capitalists in the U.S less than 10.
I mean basically our workers have been royally screwed have not participated in the substantial productivity since the mid-1970s and the main culprit is now completely legal that is the stockholders bullying management into doing what management always wants to do anyway which is uh live in a world where you control everything you buy your own stock back and Warren Buffett instead some very interesting things about stock buy bags recently like anyone who suggests there's any damage done there's a enumerator villain of course he did say all BuyBacks anyone who says all BuyBacks are damaging of course that word all can be used to make there's always some exception there's always some part of anything that is useful but what stock BuyBacks do is facilitates this world that I'm talking about you don't want to do any capex you want to live in a world of shortage so you just buy your stock back instead of building a new plant and let me just point one thing out to people who think it's identical to a dividend when you pay a dividend you distribute it evenly between your most enthusiastic stockholders and the one who's discovered adjusted with you and is about to sell you on Monday morning a stock buyback does not do that the stock buyback says who is the least enthusiastic about my stock here's the pseudo dividend you hand him cash and you take his eager stock you are constantly retiring the least enthusiastic shareholders and if you think that that does not remorselessly push up the price of stocks you are not exactly innumerate but unimagined of course it does secondly it was illegal for the first 15 years of my career and forever before that since FDR because they argued that the Insiders in the company knew everything and going out into the market and buying from the uninformed was stock manipulation how ridiculous how ridiculous to think that the corporate insiders know more than you do as an institution buying from the outside of course they know more of course it is facilitating stock manipulation and in my opinion of course it should be illegal people say well it's the same as dividends well in that case would be pay a dividend and nothing has changed you pay out a dividend I'm happy and apparently you're happy and Warren will have to pay some taxes I'm sorry about that but it is much healthier in the long run for the total economy to have corporations paying simple dividends and then some of the incentive to buy stock back rather than build a new Factory disappears and there will be a little bit more growth in capex which has really done badly GDP growth has slowed you know in the US for the last 30 years as this new fashion came in productivity has irregularly but but obviously slowed down the state of U.S capitalism is not that healthy with the I believe with the exception of the VC industry which is still pretty good
Comments 0