저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
인도 소비 구조가 퀵커머스로 바뀌며 조 달러 규모 기회가 열린다고 봄. 인도 GDP 성장률이 연 9% 수준으로 장기 복리 효과가 크다고 주장. 주식의 장기 기대수익률은 연 14~16%이며 3~5년 기준 두 자릿수 수익 확률이 높다고 봄. 하반기 실적은 상반기보다 개선될 것으로 전망, 금리 인하 사이클 기대. 공기업(PSU) 은행은 지수 대비 강세를 보였고 민간 은행은 밸류에이션 조정 국면이 끝나간다고 언급.
다듬은 글
shaping up that's the management of Readington saying that there has been strong growth in India as well as for the UAE business and they will maintain a gross margin at 4% plus levels all right to the big Market voices as promised that continues on the channel and a glimpse of our Diwali special programming where we had a very special chat with moal oswal group's Ram aaral talking about the Samad ganai and more importantly what he foresees for the markets down the line let's listen in see the quick Commerce is a I mean it's a revolution I mean India is the place where delivery should happen there's a highest competive Edge I mean the lowest cost of delivery is Possible only in India because this two wheeler the guys are affordable then you can so I think and it's a very dense population in cities and we have a lot of population so I think for 50 60 bucks you can have a profitable delivery Which is less than a dollar nowhere in the world is possible to deliver in uh 10 minutes for 60 bucks so I mean now and if you and me have to go and pick up stuff I think it's a lot of pain in the sense that uh you have to park your car you have to you have to go to for three things for a say Breaky and then the grocery and then uh Pharmacy or you to go to as many shops here in one click you get everything and that to in 10 minutes before you can even go to the car so I think and price is also competitive so my sense this is a changing the consumption pattern in every household not only top ends across everybody's looking for convenience so I think that's where I think there's a big Revolution and it's a trillion dollar kind of an opportunity in that even there is a 10% transition we in next 78 years I think you're looking at 50 to 100 billion kind of uh fmcg plus plus uh whatever they are going to deliver it's a evolving category it's a revolutionary kind of a thought process now they are not making money which I don't like they should be making money now Z has shown some profit making but I think blinket sorry swiy and zepto zepto is an early stage so I think we have to see all these Warriors when they make money but very promising field for money making today we are at $4 trillion and growing at the same PA of still a young country and Young country so in next 25 30 years when you have full demographic dividend and we go from we are growing at about 9% so every 7 years uh 8 years we double so uh in 302 in 32 years you get four doublers so do Sol so 16 XS to the current so you have a potential to go to 65 trillion from 4 trillion W That's The Power of compounding in the MS when it is so I'll move forward now we discussed the sambath year gone by now the current sambath first question which everybody wants to perhaps understand from you if the starting point is today considering the last three years have been great you enumerated the returns for next three to 5 years I'm not using one year what should be the return expectation from equities always have a fixed rate 15% It's a Wonderful rate to have this is a 15% country I'm telling you I mean 40 years 30 years 25 years you do it it's all anywhere between 14 to 15% you know even 5 years postco uh 5 years pre-o just about 90 to 24 it is 111% for Last 5 Years so it works out about 16% so the moment you do five 5 years you are you are set you'll be about 14 to 16% you know so if you think Market is high you might make 14% if you think Market is low see Market goes down by another 10 15% you are set for 16% kind of return but next 3 to 5 years the kager to your mind now whether it is 11 or 15 that's the base effect and that's the market cycle impact but the probability of getting double digit Returns on a kager basis the next 3 to 5 Years From equities is reasonably high now let me now you ask about probility next year 15% return probability I have no idea it can be zero it can be I mean it can be anywhere it's a toss of coin 50/50 okay you go to say 5 years double digit 10% plus I would say 90% chance okay if you go to 10 years 10 years 14 15% are done like probability is like 98 99% okay great second I'll move to what defines return ultimately is growth and earnings we've discussed India's GDP growth you've given us the numbers let's understand earnings for the second quarter on the Trot now earnings are down the Slowdown is visible you can smell it and you can feel it do you think this is a temporary blip in earnings will earnings revive and if they will revive what will drive the earnings yeah so I mean people who are know of things I'm not a macro guy so I I keep hearing the chief economic adviser or RBI or our FM whatever they say we have because they are they're talking from data and their understanding of things and they're going to make things happen so RBI just said that uh they still stick to 7% kind of growth projection they are the guys who are doing the numbers they are The Economist on the ground and everything so they are saying that first half was impacted by weather and all sorts of things and also election so that slowed down the government expenditure big time okay so I think second half will be best of government expenditure and private capex whatever it has to pick up and consumption so all I mean all cylinders should fire in second half so I would say Q3 and Q4 should significant should be better than Q first first half of the earnings that's what is being touted by uh you know kind of regulators or people who know of things so so clearly second second half should be better and then it should pick up so lot of things are going to happen in the s that policy decisions will happen why should we think that nothing will move rate cycle is all over the world it is coming down okay RBI is saying that they will not make a hory move right now but direction is very clear maybe if not in this 2 months then after 4 months 5 months it will happen your inflationary pressure which is there right now is also going to subside as the fruits and vegetables come uh post uh Diwali and all so I would think that uh the earnings Outlook I think this is the worst we are if it is 6 7% maybe it will be 10 12% for the second half and then from there we'll take it as a lower rate cycle lower uh crude prices I mean us election will be behind Trump will be there to stop both the wars so World be a far more peaceful so let's take it as we go forward two sectors which have uh been in Limelight for right reason and wrong reason psus and Banks nobody expected psus to go high and nobody everybody expected Banks to recover where are PSU stocks headed and will Banks make a come back see Banks has two aspect one is the PSU Banks and other is the private seor bank so Banks PSU banks have done exing well actually almost two three Act of index they have done I think they have WR about 25 30% against 10% of the index so they have done very well it is the private sector bank which were flying for last 10 15 years they had their kind of some kind of balancing between public sector and private so whoever wanted to buy public sector they sold private sector and bought into private so I think correction in private sector in terms of valuation and all sorts of uh uh earnings you know all management transitions are happening in kotak HDFC all everything is now over it's a second ending for the private sector bank
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