Nastiest Warning Yet: What Jerome Powell (Fed) JUST Said.

요약 보기

파월 FOMC 기자회견을 분석하며 경제전망(SEP)의 불확실성이 크게 높아졌고, 연성지표(서베이)는 악화됐지만 경성지표는 양호하다고 봄. 관세 영향으로 4월 이후 3개월이 경기침체 여부의 분수령이라 주장. 장단기 금리 스프레드 축소를 경계하며 부채 축소와 분할 매도를 권고. 시장은 파월 발언을 낙관적으로 받아들였으나 본인은 매수 타이밍이 아니라고 봄. 동시에 자사 멤버십과 하우스 투자 상품을 홍보.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. boom shut down wow jome one heck of op pressor we got a lot to cover in this one from transitory inflation is back two cuts forecast for the year a dirty bear lives inside of the Federal Reserve building we got to talk about that and can we just I mean if we look listen if we took a shot for every time they use the word uncertainty first of all we'd be dead second of all we'd probably start scratching our heads a little bit and wondering maybe what they're telling us isn't exactly what they think is going to happen so we we get a lot to break down here but first of all look overall this is exactly what we thought the Fed was going to give us in fact this morning in our Alpha report we talked about how we thought the NASDAQ 100 via the qqqs would run all the way up to 484 off of the level that we got which was around 476 which by the way intraday is a huge movement for Nasdaq what did we get we did get exactly that we got about 485 this is the kind of stuff we talk about daily you see it on the channel I'll keep bringing it to you but for the alpha report you can now get it all in a very low priced meat Kev membership less than a buck 70 a day really affordable if you want to try it for 30 days give it a shot you get all courses all trade alerts every private live stream Alpha reports course member meetups you name it we got a lot of cool things coming this year so be a part of it and ask uh with me any questions you have directly and join in the fundamental analysis so for now though we got to talk about this fed warning because there was a warning buried in this and I'll tell you we actually did pretty dang well with Bingo as well look at this the green here are the ones we hit we got Bingo twice over when do we get Bingo twice over we'll talk about all of it first let's get into the most critical stuff so Jerome Powell towards the end of the presser gave us something we've really never paid attention to before he brought us to page 11 and 12 of the summary of economic projections saying look we're holding rat steady but something has changed in terms of the forecast we're giving you we're basically telling you to your face that the forecast we're giving you aren't really worth anything anymore he's used the word uncertainty probably at least 50 times during this pressor but he actually even pointed us to the chart in case it wasn't obvious enough that the FED has no freaking clue what's going to happen they pointed at this chart and said our uncertainty is now way higher than it was in December the December projections are the dotted line right here and everything has gone to the higher side higher to the upside in other words we have no idea now why is that happening I think it's happening because the Federal Reserve just spent an hour and a half telling us I mean this is the summary right here this line is your summary the her data is really good things are hugely good the Soft Data okay that's like your your takeaway from this bluntly put the hard economic data like actual real uh uh data that's being reported from January and December and Q4 still great things are still moving wonderfully the leading indicators the Soft Data are really bad but fortunately the FED has a solution for you the FED is letting you know that don't worry this time is different and transitory inflation is back all the Soft Data is going to crap because of tariff uncertainty in fact Jerome Powell bluntly defended the surveys and the soft data by saying look when you look at the details of the surveys they all talk about tariff uncertainty and honestly he's right he is right about that when you look at the isms when you look at the pmis when you look at the University of Michigan sentiment surveys when you look at any report everybody talks about tariff uncertainty Jerome Powell says we'll know very quickly if tariff uncertainty and the Soft Data ends up translating into bad hard data that is a pretty big warning for you now he doesn't give us a time frame for that he just says well no very quickly so what kind of time frame could we potentially know if this Soft Data is going to turn into bad hard data and if we have bad hard data things could probably get bad very quickly talk about why in just a moment what time frame could we potentially have well we know that tariffs are expected to take full effect April 2nd if we kick the can down the road on that may be no big deal right but if tariffs take effect April 2nd when do we start seeing the hard data of pain in April well you're going to see it in May and you're going to see it in the middle of June because in that 6 week period is when you get the hard data for April so we are in the middle of March right now which means the next 3 months will probably be the tail as to whether or not we are going to dump into a recession or not in other words Jerome Powell is telling you to your face hey everything's good right now as we expected him to say but he's also telling you the next 3 months could be an sh9 t-shir because if this Soft Data turns into hard data it's a problem and the bond Market's already reacting to this somewha down 5.7 basis points and the 10year down 2.7% you can see the spread is actually widened today not much we're still only at somewhere around 27 28 basis points spread apart but the fact that the two is falling faster than the 10 suggests both of these sides are saying okay all right we're going to go with a lower growth Outlook why because their GDP forecasts were reduced by about 10% we'll show that in just a moment but the spread widening is a concern once we get to a spread of about 50 to 90 it's usually because we're in a recessionary shock and that shock could appear within the next 3 months which is interesting because what I'm telling a lot of folks is now could be a potential time to look at the debts you have and the margin you have and get out of debt take advantage of the little rallies that we're getting the bounce that we're getting on Powell get out of debt don't get screwed if we go into a recession if we don't go into a recession in the next three to six months no problem all in by the dip baby let's go we're going back to the moon but I'm just telling you where my money is going and where my mouth is going it's very clear I just put $5 million this isn't it's not like oh I just bought a stock and I bought $200 of a stock and I'm trying to make a YouTube video on it to farm content I'm being blunt with you $5 million right into something that I think does well counter cyclically in a recession and pays me a yield oh spoiler many of you already know this it's house hack yeah it's my company I'm biased okay house act.com you already know about this non accredited investors by the way I haven't announced that yet but it's open right now we're quietly launching that but what's remarkable is I think that as you get towards the end of this year you're going to have the answer did we stick to soft Landing or not and you want to be prepared for both realities are you going to buy the dip on on uh stocks now now or are you going to wait for when jpow actually freaks out because that's the next warning he gave you and I want to be prepared for that jpow freak out that's the best time to buy stocks that's the best time to buy real estate that's what we're prepping for so what is the jpow freak out and how are we going to get the Freak Out based on what he told us today we made it very clear nationally we are not seeing layoffs right now however and these are his words an increase in layoffs would move up unemployment fast that's a huge warning because I want you to put this puzzle together for a moment he just told you we have no fracking idea what's going on our forecasts are worthless that's that's in writing he told you we have no idea what's going on what we do think is that things got a little bit worse in fact we wrote down our GDP projections from 2% to 1.8% but we don't really think the UN employment rate is going to go up really so in your forecast you say you don't think the unemployment rate is going to go up but in your discussion you go yeah if we see a an increase in layoffs the unemployment rate is going to go up immediately so the only thing the only glue holding this all together is we don't see broad National based layoffs yet Jerome Powell if you listen very closely said if we see National level layoffs we're going to have to move very quickly in English they're going to have to cut rates very rapidly which is very interesting it presents some Curious um opportunities for investing but I want you to know the FED just got more bearish at least well one person did look at this this is the December projection of GDP forecasts in 2025 nobody was under 1.6 in 2026 we got one person at 1.4 27 we got one person at 1.4 that's not that dirty of a bear but what happened in today's summary of economic projections you may have missed scroll down to it look at the dirty bear One Soul at the Federal Reserve is panicking we have never seen one person at the Federal Reserve panic yet this cycle this is the start of panic this is the start of panic where one person at the Federal Reserve says crap this Soft Data could roll over into layoffs very rapidly and things could change extremely quickly now who knows maybe it won't happen maybe we won't have the bearishness and we don't have a that would be great because the suffering is going to be terrible it's going to be really hard to get J jobs when layoff Skyrocket thanks to AI in part it's going to be really hard to get people to hire again so I'm not looking forward to that but I do think as a human being person to person like you want to join the me Kevin membership that's fine you want to invest in house that's fine but just as a human to Human whether you whether you support the channel whether you're a hater whether you're a lover a subscriber an investor or just a watcher whatever please protect your downside because you might look at this fed meeting and go oh J jpow told us everything is fine and the stock market went up you're missing the boat I think you're getting blatantly lied to because frankly if the Federal Reserve told you what they truly thought instead of them telling you our forecast isn't worth anything uncertainty is up and they actually said Soft Data is a leading indicator of pain to come this Market would be dumping now I want you to look at and and I I don't have any puts or calls okay this doesn't matter well with the exception of the bond market but that's a hedge um so but I'm not you know benefiting in one way or another in my opinion off off of this stuff I'm just trying to give it to you straight because I like I I want to be here for you for the next 60 years talking to you about Powell you know in 60 years I be no guess what fans doing you know like so I I want to preserve that Integrity of always giving you my honest opinion of what's going on look at what we got on Bingo I've never been this damn good at bingo before okay so please like the video for that but damn this was good Bingo okay jpow brings a Windows laptop son of a gun brings a Windows laptop okay damn anyway we got the classic do a mandate hey why did you remove the balance of wrist oh that's not that useful anymore okay pal labor market is healthy yeah right now it is hire for longer if the data continues on this course fine JP asked somebody to repeat a question and abruptly cut somebody off about politics says right now we don't have a recession in the data he doesn't see layoffs coming right now and the economy is in good fa shape I even WR wrote everything is fine picture SpongeBob with the fire in the background but him saying everything is fine avoid suggesting the labor market could roll over he does but he makes it pretty clear that if it does they're going to have to move very fast and this this if you listen to the conversation honestly like I kind of want to go through and pull a transcript of this I don't know if we'd be able to get it this quickly but it would be fascinating to go to the Federal Reserve board and pull a transcript of this meeting and count how many times they use the word that's not up yet count how many times they use the word uncertainty and it is going to be the most the largest count we've ever seen before now now that I've gone through some of these warnings here the bear inside of the fed and this talk about we're sort of like on the Teeter of potentially Soft Data turning into bad hard data within the next three months let's go through a little bit more of what jpow said so recent indications point to a moderation in consumer spending okay duh it remains to be seen how this affects future spending he literally opens up with yeah some of the recent data sucks and we don't really know what this is going to do yet I mean I think he's being as blunt as he can telling you just be careful then he talks about how there are four major changes underway because of trump trade immigration regulation fiscal spending okay red flag because we don't know what the outcome's going to be he says if the economy remains strong we can maintain if the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly or inflation were to fall faster we'd be able to lower rates I think both of those are going to happen I think you're going to get a weaker labor market rapidly and you're going to get rapid disinflation because of that and they're cutting to zero so that's my that's my opinion I'm always trying to separate though my opinion from fact so you can make your own opinion I think you're smart enough to make your own opinion uh short-term inflation expectations are up we need the tariffs though fine okay this was interesting then he gets into this whole thing about how inflation's going to be transitory because of tariffs and he had this sort of like mic drop moment where somebody's like wait isn't this the same thing you said last time and then Pal's like well what do you mean last time are you talking about the last time we had tariff and the guy's like no no the pandemic and this was hilarious Trump or um pal was like oh okay just checking because the last time we said inflation was transitory on tariffs we were right inflation was transitory and we think inflation is going to be transitory again this time on tariffs and then like oh you know but the pandemic caus inflation and then Pal's like well this time's different okay there are a lot of funny memes we can make out of that let's just be like straight about it if Soft Data weakens is not not going to be any inflation you're going to have a deflation uh in which case power will prove to be right that these tariffs are transitory now the reality is the Tariff and the uncertainties around tariffs could actually be leading to this massive pull forward in demand inappropriately leading the economy to look a lot stronger than it is and it just comes crashing down when we get the hard data between now and June who knows but what I've never seen before is japal discounting surveys japal multiple times H you know the relationship between surveys and data isn't very tight we're going to wait for data like real data blah really jpow now all of a sudden discounting the same surveys they used to pay very close attention to hm red flag to me but okay uh National level of layoffs not that high yet that's fine he says hey yeah the odds of recession have gone up based on what forecasters see but those odds have only gone up from a very low level so maybe we're not seeing that uh 2 months ago the odds of recession were very low the latest bad University of Michigan data is an outlier this is weird this sort of like discounting it's unusual hard data is still pretty solid Soft Data reflects uncertainty uh we we slowed you know we didn't obviously change rates today we slowed the balance sheet runoff to me them slowing the balance sheet runoff is the reverse vacuum cleaner like they're they're sucking up less money from the economy cuz FR frankly the economy needs the liquidity right now uh mostly because I think they see there is a real chance you could fall off the cliff over here uh he literally said phrases like uncertainty is remarkably High never seen this sort of uh phrasing from him before he says we're well positioned to move in either direction the hard data is in good shape but the Soft Data signals quote significant concerns and downside risks so in other words he says the the incoming data sucks it's not hard data yet but the leading data really really sucks and then his response to that is but we don't want to get ahead of that oh man okay so you want to be behind it again all right then he's asked about the Doge dividend and he says of course I'm not going to speculate on that so interesting kind of blowoff but I mean if you put all of this together on balance yes it it was a Powell who gave us what we wanted it was a Powell who came out to you swinging and said damn that me Kevin membership is hell of a good deal Kevin's going to be raising the prices on those soon CU you know that's what we always do they start out with a low price and the price goes up over time but to get access to all of that for less than a buck 70 a day why would you not sign up for that and at least give it a shot especially since you can cancel after you know anytime if you don't want your subscription to renew but I don't think you will I think you're going to love the alpha report and the course member lives and the access to the courses and the new content the trail whatever anyway reality here is to sum this all up there's a bear inside of the Federal Reserve and jpow is ignoring the Soft Data in favor of the hard data we haven't seen this from Powell before but he gave markets What markets wanted to hear he gave by the dippers what they wanted to hear and honestly like I feel responsible for being part of the buy the dip generation because I mean we got the song by the dip I'm just personally not in that that mood right now maybe I'm just broken and I'll be back soon I can't wait to be back to Mr buy the dip I really can't I I prefer Mr byy the dip but it's just not me right now I don't believe that this is a time to buy the dip I think this is a horrible time to buy equities uh and I I would be trimming my risk on any bounce that we get and I'd be diversifying to something else that's my take I'm sorry I'm a dirty bear but I think like studying Powell for as long as I have in the Federal Reserve I mean I've been making videos on Powell since the end of 2017 okay maybe the beginning of 2018 like we went through the whole last tariff cycle and I'm like buy the dip this is all and it was great 2020 buy the dip you know beginning of 2022 I'm like this is going to suck you might consider selling markets go down for eight months nine months in a row and then we talk Nike Swoosh and we got the recovery yeah this this Trump Euphoria and this pull forward this has been pretty euphoric and that's why I think it a good opportunity to takes some Mone off the table do I think it's going to continue no that's my opinion in terms of facts though I've never seen Powell this uncommitted to the Future and this discounting of survey data that we're getting I think it's a red flag that's my take anyway thanks so much for watching really appreciate y'all we'll see yall in the next one and uh good luck out there a wonderful day go check out me kevin.com house.com if you want and um really appreciate y'all you know it's uh it is nice uh being able to do these live streams and and and chat with y'all uh so um uh good good to see you anyway we'll see you in the course member live streams and other videos thanks so much goodbye good luck