저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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첫 줄 결론: 모비우스는 인도 증시 강세 지속을 낙관하며 중국 대비 인도를 선호한다고 밝혔다. 인도 시장 전망: 2021년 인도 시장은 두 자릿수 수익을 냈고, 강세장은 명확한 악재가 없는 한 지속된다고 봤다. 단기 조정은 10~15회 정도 예상되나 경미할 것이라고 했다. 포트폴리오 운용: 펀드의 인도 비중이 높고, 20% 이상 보유 중이며 계속 매수하고 있다고 했다. 하락 시 오히려 추가 매수할 계획이다. 중국 및 타 시장 비교: 중국은 정부 규제 리스크로 대형주를 피하고 중소형주 위주로 투자 중이다. 그러나 기업 지배구조, ESG 측면에서 인도 기업이 더 우수해 인도를 더 선호한다. 2022년 및 코로나 변이 전망: 2022년도 두 자릿수 수익이 가능하다고 봤다. 연준 긴축 우려는 후퇴했고, 정부의 유동성 공급이 시장에 우호적이라고 평가했다. 오미크론 변이는 전염성은 높지만 사망률은 낮아 과거처럼 큰 패닉은 덜할 것이라고 했다. 포트폴리오 구성 원칙: 지수 편입 종목을 피하고 중소형주를 발굴하는 전략을 유지한다. 보유 30개 종목 중 지수 편입 종목은 극소수다. 두 종목(Polycab, Apollo Tyres 등)은 원자재 소비 기업이지만 원가 상승 영향은 제한적이며, 프리미엄 가격 전가가 가능한 기업이라 유망하다고 봤다. 리스크: 중국 규제 리스크, 원자재 가격 상승에 따른 마진 압박, 코로나 변이 확산 시 단기 변동성 가능성. 출연자 전망 요약: 인도 주식 중기적 강세 지속, 단기 조정은 매수 기회로 간주.
다듬은 글
from the same place twice last time you were in dubai this time also you are in dubai exactly of course i've been traveling between that i've been to turkey i've been to cyprus and to egypt but uh i can't go to singapore as you know i have a place in singapore i want to return to but it's impossible now because of the covet situation all hopefully soon hopefully soon mark we are in a good spot if you are an indian investor we have done rather well this year the gains have been double digits but if i look at the world around us there is a currency crisis in turkey korean markets have plunged to a new record low hong kong as we speak is at a fresh 12-month low so the world is shaky and indian markets have done rather well for themselves so do you think this kind of an out performance what indian markets have exhibited is real and is here to stay uh well it's real that's no no problem about it and thank god for the indian market because as you know we have a heavy weighting in india and our funds have done very well as a result of uh india and taiwan and so those two countries have done very very well and uh look you have to realize that a bull market is not over till it's over in other words you have to assume that the bull markets will continue unless there's some good reason to believe that uh they will not continue and if we talk to the companies in which we invest in india we see that they continue to do very well in their earnings they're growing uh they're innovating and uh we believe that there's no reason for us to panic or get out even if the market goes down we probably would buy more of what we have so uh i think we have to assume that things will continue to do well of course there'll be short time corrections maybe 10 15 corrections along the way but these will be minor corrections in an ongoing bull market in this lack of decline in indian stocks 10 percent on the index 15 20 percent in individual stocks are you a buyer ah yeah we have continued to look and buy indian stocks of course in our funds we have certain restrictions on how much we can buy in any one company or any one country uh but we're up there you know 20 plus in india so that's quite a big waiting mark given that the difference between indian markets and i'm using valuations for reference purpose and i'm looking at one year forward the gap between indian stock markets and the chinese stock markets the valuation difference between let's say korea and india that's very large i've been told that this is an historical gap like never seen before isn't that tempting tempting enough for a global investor like yours to reduce exposure to india and go to other markets which have under performed and which in a sense offer better entry points well there's no question yes china has really come down a lot and of course this will continue because the government is continuing its reform program which will affect a number of companies industries now we are in china we are invested in china but we're not in the large companies that are vulnerable to government regulation we're in the medium size and small size companies and we're finding opportunities in china but we find that the opportunities in india are actually better the companies are more responsive uh their the corporate governance has improved dramatically in india uh they're very much aware of what we think is very important uh esg and culture so all these things combined to make us a little bit more optimistic about our holdings in india rather than china but we're not ruling china out by no means we continue to look at china but we just haven't found the terrific bargains that we can see in india mark i'm also happy to share with you that our hindi channel that is also live with this interview so maybe you want to say hello to all our 80 now swadesh vivas also love everyone hi maybe greeting in hindi would look better mark okay mark you said that you you like china but you are still inclined towards india so what is your sense for 2022 uh are we in for another year of good double digit returns because 2020 was an aberration first you fell and then you recovered so i'm keeping that aside but 2021 has been a year of absolute good returns from a decent base could that continue for 2022 also uh yes it could continue uh you know the interesting part of all of this uh situation with uh kovind is that um as you know a few months earlier uh the fed in america was saying well look now it's time for us to tighten up and to increase interest rates and so forth and so on uh now uh with the threat of a new variant uh they're having second thoughts now when that happens of course it means that the party is not over because we continue to see governments pump money into these economies and we continue to see them trying their best to maintain a healthy economy with low interest rates so this kind of situation uh is actually good for the markets it's very ironic on the one hand you see uh covert cases going up but you also see the stock market going up at the same time so uh that's quite a uh interesting thing that you got to think about you know you can't see the covert situation is necessarily bad for markets because government policy is arising from covid actually are beneficial to markets our market secretly pricing in uh tapering whenever it starts uh well you know that's the question mark the tapering was uppermost in the minds of people just a few weeks ago now it's fading into the background because there's a realization that perhaps the fed will take cognizance of this new variant of covid and maybe we will not tighten the screws as much as we expect so mark if the covered variant spreads could be in for a severe correction or a minor correction because post when covered was discovered that time markets just went through went through excruciating fall uh i mean hell broke loose markets were down 40 45 percent across the board if the covet variant spreads what happens then how do you think markets would adjust well uh as you know when last year when this coveted situation hit there was panic the market came down dramatically but recovered very very quickly um this time around i think people are inured to the bad news in other words they've been hearing over covet covert big disaster big problems blah blah and now they're beginning to say well wait a minute uh you know last time it wasn't so bad the market did well so why should i panic uh with this situation and by the way the news coming out of south africa is that yes the new variant is highly contagious uh but is not necessarily fatal in other words the deaths are so far are very very minimal so um you may find a situation where people will begin to realize that this new variant is not as serious as some people believe but nevertheless people will tend to uh not react as strongly as they did in the first panic mark when we spoke last we spoke about your india explosion it was limited to three stocks have you made it four or five i know we're sticking with those stocks and we are very happy with them of course we continue to look at what the possibilities are but so far we're not making any changes these are mid cap stocks any any any reason why you let's say opted for a persistent not a frontline name like tcs or infosys uh yes the whole idea of our fund was to be different from the index as you know uh nowadays index uh investment is very common the exchange traded funds etfs are the instrument that many many investors are using and of course those etfs are based on indexes so in order for us to offer anything different from what people now have is to do something where the index is not involved so we make a point of not investing in companies that are in the index i think uh in our portfolio of 30 stocks maybe two are in an index and not the main index so uh that's one of the overriding principles that we have in our portfolio the second thing is that we want to go after medium and small size companies that people have not noticed in other words that other people are not into the idea is to see these countries companies grow and see uh gradually other people recognizing the value of the companies of course then this prices will go up but mark two stocks which you own one is polycarb and the second one is apollo both of them in a sense are commodity consumers at a time when we are seeing a serious re-rating in the entire commodity complex and companies are struggling with maintaining cost and which is having impact on their margins does it make sense to bet on commodity consumers and not producers uh not necessarily uh if you look at let's say uh uh looking at the the tube uh manufacturing um yes they're using steel and steel prices are up but it's only one part of their overall costing the other part of course is labor and all the other aspects of manufacturing so uh the impact on pricing is not that great uh the good news in addition to that is that with the apollo quality excuse me with the apollo quality they're able to get a premium price so they can raise prices without having too much of an impact on demand so it really depends on the individual company you'll find that a lot of these studio
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