저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 시장이 과열 막바지 신호를 보이며 중앙은행의 재양적완화 시 급격한 상승(블로우오프)이 나올 수 있으나, 이후 큰 위험이 따른다는 취지. 미국/글로벌 시장 과열론: 지난 몇 달~1년간 일부 자산이 매우 빠르게 올랐으며, 90년대 말 나스닥이 6개월 만에 두 배가 된 사례를 들어 블로우오프 상승을 예상. 중앙은행 정책: 중앙은행이 다시 돈을 찍어내기 시작하면 블로우오프가 재현될 가능성이 높다고 봄. 투자자들이 중앙은행이 보호해 줄 것이라 믿는 시점이 가장 위험하다고 경고. 중국 규제와 부동산: 중국의 부동산 진정책은 과도한 버블 해소를 위한 옳은 조치로 평가. 다만 통제 가능한지, 붕괴로 이어질지는 불확실하며 역사상 정부의 진정책이 통제되지 못한 사례가 많다고 언급. 중국 투자 유지: 중국 주식은 보유 중이며 최근 소량 추가 매수. 중국 부동산은 보유하지 않음. 중국 규제 강화가 전 세계와 투자자에게 미칠 영향에 대해 구체적 수치 언급 없음. 인도 디지털 기업 과열: 최근 상장한 신생 디지털 기업들의 밸류에이션이 어지러울 정도로 높다는 인식에 대해 공감하며, 시장이 오를 때 새로운 자산과 투기 열풍이 등장하는 것은 역사적으로 반복된 현상이라고 설명. 가상자산/NFT: 암호화폐와 NFT 열풍을 과열의 신호로 지목. 인도의 암호화폐 법안 및 디지털 루피(CBDC) 논의 역시 같은 맥락으로 언급. 배우자가 NFT에 관여하고 있다고 밝힘. 역사적 패턴: 1960년대 말 미국에서 제목에 '컴퓨터'가 들어가면 주가가 치솟았던 사례, 그리고 스팩(SPAC)이 300년 역사를 가지며 강세장 말기에 반복 등장한다는 점을 과열 신호로 제시. 리스크 및 조건: 강세장 후반의 투기 열풍이 전형적 패턴이며, 이후 붕괴 가능성이 존재한다는 암묵적 경고. 구체적 목표가나 기간은 제시되지 않음. 출연자 전망: 단기적 블로우오프 상승 가능성을 열어두되 그 이후의 위험을 강조하는 신중한 낙관/경계 입장.
다듬은 글
accordingly and the impact of the rate hike would be nullified look back at markets anywhere in the last phase whether it's the last six months or the last the last few months a year some really crazy things have happened you look back at the end of the 90s the nasdaq the nasdaq the whole index like doubled in six months at the end and it's always that way people get really excited and exuberant and they see things going up they want to get don't want to miss it they want to jump in and you have really wild crazy moves and in america we sometimes call it a blow-off you know the market blows off uh it goes up so far so fast so i would expect that is going to happen again it has often happened in markets and it will probably happen again when they start printing again because then see when when things get bad and the central bank comes riding in and prints more money everybody says oh we don't ever have to worry the central bank will protect us that's when you get really really worried jim i'm not getting into why chinese are doing what they're doing but let's understand the impact of what china is doing if the chinese government maintain this policy or where they want to slow down the economy where they maintain a policy if they want to continue to have a tight leash over fintech and other sectors especially especially in the in internet space what implications do you think it will have a for rest of the world and b for investors who up up until now have invested in china are not really getting worried about their investments and are saying that look should we switch out of china well every country in the world wants to have strict control over its industries whether it's india and agriculture or america everybody that's the way politicians are i don't like it but who care that that's the way they are china has been trying to slow down property as you know and in my view that is correct for them to do that property is got wildly overpriced a huge bubble in many chinese cities and in my view they're doing the right thing to try to calm it down now can they control it or does it turn into a huge collapse i don't know most governments in history have not been able to control when they try to slow things down and it gets out of control i still own chinese shares i bought more a few recently not many but a few i am not selling out of china although i i don't own property in china i do suspect that china will continue to try to calm property because it got into a wild bubble jim uh there seems to be popular belief here in india that there is a froth slash exuberance in the new age digital companies many of them have ipo'd uh in the last three or six months or so and one has seen quite a bit of dizzy in terms of their evaluation while you know that subject aside just wanted to understand what is it that you're making of this entire fad which is emerging for digital assets i was just reading the other day that there has been a two and a half million pound auction uh for a digital real estate uh not just that we all know that the nft fad as well is uh very fast catching up distance news that you know india is looking at uh presenting a crypto bill on whether or not to legalize crypto assets or well whether india is going to have its own sovereign a digital currency or not which is going to be tabled in the parliament shortly as i said there are always new new things coming in uh any market when it goes up for a while and that's what's happening now you know in the late 60s in the american market for instance at one point anything that said computer in its title did well there was a laundry a laundry that changed its name to something laundry or something computer and the stock went up went crazy for a long time and that's what we're having now the cryptocurrencies the nft my wife is involved with nfts you know many people get involved with these things and but that's the way all markets work when you come towards the end a lot of new people come a lot of new instruments come a lot of new ways to get rich come you know spax you see spax are coming again well spax have been around for 300 years and every time not every time but nearly every time a market goes up for a long time spax come back well here we have spax again these are all signs of things that have happened before and they will happen again the next time we have a bull market
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