저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 3분기 인도량이 애널리스트 예상(약 22.3만대)을 상회한 241,300대로 발표됨. 공급망 부족에도 선방. 테슬라는 아직 S커브 초기이며 2025년 주당 1300~1700달러 적정가치 제시(현재 약 780달러 대비 상승). 테슬라 PER은 장기적으로 하락해 30배 수준 정상화 전망. 로보택시·FSD 매출이 수익성 개선 핵심 변수라고 주장. 세율 인상 리스크와 에너지 사업 수익성 언급.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me kevin here so something went very wrong tesla actually beat expectations which is incredible tesla on the basis of 12 analysts surveyed by bloomberg projected that tesla would bring it deliveries to 223 677 the average projection was 221 952 and that's what tesla mentioned to investors so tesla mentioned 221.9 analysts expected 223.6 well we ended up folks with 241 300 cars being delivered in the third quarter those are the three months obviously preceding october so going backwards that's september august july which what's interesting about those dates is it's in the midst of the supply crisis the supply chain shortages in fact if you have a tesla that gets into an accident these days it's very difficult to get new parts for your tesla because the parts are so uh needed and in such short supply that they're difficult to come by it takes a very long time the parts are probably sitting on a on a ship somewhere and a lot of the parts are destined for for new vehicles so how do we fix or how do we fit rather uh what just happened with tesla into the future of tesla especially at the same time as individuals like chamath paper hantila have suggested that they have completely sold out of tesla and now i will say in fairness regarding the chama thing it actually turns out that he didn't just sell tesla it actually looks like he has not owned tesla at any point in 2021 so uh it sounds like he uh he's out of it which he was obviously one of the early investors in tesla i've not owned any tesla since before 2021 he wrote i was speaking only as an enthusiastic supporter of the company and its mission okay so in other words he's just sort of reiterating that hey i don't own any tesla so he's already he paper-handed last year basically on tesla which is fine because tesla actually hasn't done so much so far this year it's kind of been a sideways mover up a little bit but certainly lagging the s p 500 but what i want to do is just take a look at our spreadsheet again and forward projections for tesla now these are obviously bullish estimates here but the estimates that i'm about to show well we'll go through sort of bare a bull and base case we'll go through the cases here in just a moment uh but uh what we're trying to do is we're trying to project out for 2025 and what's very important when it comes to any kind of growth companies recognizing especially with tesla that even though it already seems like your stock price has moved so much it's always useful to consider what the s-curve of manufacturing looks like so before we hit the spreadsheet it's important to remember that the s-curve of manufacturing looks a lot like this and so hence this kind of sideways looking s and basically this is where you you start off with production at basically zero you very very slowly ramp up production which is hard to do lordstown motors just sold their factory to foxconn so they can essentially contract manufacture nia which is my second ev position is a contract or they contract out their manufacturing to jac which is 50 owned by volkswagen 50 owned by the chinese communist party so it's it's worth noting that manufacturing is very difficult sure the legacy automakers manufacture their own vehicles but they're also trying to create essentially a brand new s-curve see the legacy auto manufacturers they might be right here with their manufacturing where they've essentially plateaued with what they're uh making that's tesla toyota 4gm right with them starting anew with evs sure they have experience to get factories up and running in scale but you wonder how that legacy experience translates over to to a new uh essentially product electric vehicles this is i mean a lot should be similar right paint body airbags things like that so many things should be pretty similar so you'd think that might give them some competitive advantage but oftentimes legacy companies are slower to adopt new technologies or adopt new machinery they're dealing with unions that in some cases might help them advance but in other cases could hold them back against automation for example which is something tesla doesn't have an issue with tesla doesn't have a unionized workforce but anyway the s-curve is really essentially this right here and when you have companies like lordstown motors fisker canoe arcamodo a lot of them get stuck here and the reason the companies go public is is to essentially sell a vision and hey if if the public gives us the opportunity of raising money then we can scale our manufacturing and then we can actually get going on the s curve so in my opinion and this is just my opinion the the most difficult part of manufacturing for evs is this right here this first inflection point and uh lucid actually is probably somewhere right here they're at their first inflection point now they got billions of dollars a lot of it coming from saudi arabia and we're able to build a factory in arizona and they're rolling out vehicles that people are going to start getting deliveries on within the next two to four months whereas again a company like canoe or lordstown they're still at zero then you've got the retrofit companies this is totally different world like the xl fleets or the highly on or whatever i don't even really consider that vehicle manufacturing that's more like taking a vehicle that's already been manufactured by somebody and then adding an electric drivetrain and calling it an ev right semi trucks have a lot of space so you can you can uh doink with the systems i shouldn't say doink with you can upgrade the systems but anyway tesla in all realities even though the tesla stock price if we zoom in and this is always worth noting even though tesla stock price has kind of done this right it kind of feels like we've already been on an s curve and i'm trying to align these by time tesla's manufacturing is still really only what maybe here uh i mean it is it is really at the beginning of the s curve sure it's and if we zoom in on this it becomes a little bit more apparent we are well uh well ahead of the competition you know maybe neo is probably somewhere like over here you're actually in the manufacturing stages but if if the end goal is for tesla let's say to plateau around what toyota manufacturers let's say 10 million vehicles per year then uh you know you might be somewhere around uh gosh the inflection point the rate of change you'll probably ramp up pretty heavily to about five million vehicles a year and then you'll start to see this inflect and slow down and this curve is going to become very important in terms of valuation because when what happens with growth companies is you tend to very very early on you have and i can't even remember if i know how to draw it there we go you have an infinite e ratio with uh with companies when they're early on because they have negative earnings right if you have negative earnings you essentially have uh an infinite price to earnings ratio because your earnings are undefined uh but as you get to a neo neo right now trades for something like a forward p e ratio of 60.
tesla trades somewhere around a forward p e ratio closer to 50 right now this is trying to prog project forward to 2025 let's say that's about what uh at least in terms of wall street estimates what they trade for my estimates are a little bit more bullish see if i believe uh well we'll get into the spreadsheet and i'll explain this a little bit better but the point is and these these are forward ps so what i should really do is get to current pes because it'll make a little more sense in in terms of this chart forward pe is really looking at what what's the company potentially going to be worth in the future so neo is actually still at an infinite pe ratio i just looked it up on bloomberg and tesla's at about 393.
and so what happens is this is the market essentially pricing and growth and eventually when you get to this lower area over here this is kind of like where your fords and the gms are right this is where you're going to be a lot closer to a 10 to 15 times pe ratio and and that's because you're pricing in less growth because you essentially have less growth you've plateaued you're growing at you know three to four percent a year or whatever this is why when people say oh well that company has a high p e ratio i'm not interested in buying that because it's overvalued or people say oh like oh this stock has a 10 p e ratio that's undervalued no they're just at totally different places in the s curve and when you're buying a company over here you're buying into way less growth than you are over here that's why the market values things like this but it's worth noting that when you chart uh an s curve here your p e ratio on tesla is going to decline right it's going to get back to normalcy so i would say you might go 300 200 100 over here at 5 mil because you still have a lot of growth ahead of you and then as we round the corner over here you're going to start going to 50 and 25 and you you might actually because there's so much technology involved in tesla i would say tesla probably is going to end like an apple around a 30.
so you might have a whole lot more of a curve that looks something like this this would be a little bit more appropriate you know who knows maybe this is around seven and a half mil maybe this is around 10 million vehicles and and there's still some growth to get it to 12 million vehicles or tesla goes bankrupt right but this again becomes very very important because when we look at the spreadsheet this will all make a whole lot more sense right here so this is my uh my old spreadsheet uh this is my 2025 uh essentially base case scenario we're only going to look at this here really quick i want to keep this nice and simple so revenue per vehicle 40 000 might honestly be low they are monetizing full self-driving very well and i expect the price of that to go up substantially when full self-driving is actually full self-driving i was complaining on twitter the other day that i still have not gotten my opt-in button and there are a bunch of idiot twitter trolls who are like well you should drive safer apparently these are folks who either don't follow tesla or they're just trolling because if you don't have the button to push they don't actually start monitoring your driving the way it works is you click the button then they monitor you for a week then you get invited to the beta maybe but the button isn't even there for me and it's really annoying because i have the full self-driving computer i had that upgrade done i verified with tesla i have all of the hardware that i need even though i don't have the in-cab and camera on my 2008 tesla so it's kind of just frustrating that i haven't been able to push the button yet like it's kind of like you go to disney world and you see a long line i'm not bitching about the fact that there's a long line i'm complaining about the fact that i can't even get in the line right and i think that was a customer service faux pas by elon musk because he said tesla owners are going to be able to push the button well i'm a tesla owner and i haven't been able to push the button so i get a little pissed about that because i just feel like it's misleading and sure like i get the like it's one thing if it's like hey we're gonna roll this button out to people over time fine but just be transparent about that so that just bothers me a little bit but anyway uh so if we go with 40 000 and we assume by 2025 about 4.8 million vehicles uh with this services and energy doesn't matter so much in fact they'll delete this in a moment you'll see it that's going to get us about revenues around 235 billion dollars we do have expenses here and now i did not include any semi-revenue robo taxi revenue insurance revenue uh for the sake of this presentation here these are all zero now people complain sometimes in the content why are you not including this well i'm not including this because it's hard to value and i don't need to in fact this is all just bonus it's just going to make my estimate uh look lower which is good because i still have a bullish estimate so so these are what i call the conservative buffers where it's like the icing on the cake like hey if that gives me an extra five percent return annual compounded like great i'll take it but i don't need to estimate this for the purpose of this video uh if anything it's just a safety net for me so i'm gonna go with a 28 margin on the vehicles that they're selling uh and we're gonna take 15 off for operating expenses and 250 ml for interest that's about where they've been hanging out that could fluctuate that doesn't matter so much so that's going to bring us to about a 25 billion dollar profit and we're going to take off a corporate tax rate of about 22 we do have a risk factor here that taxes could be going up uh but anyway shares outstanding that would bring us to about 17 in earnings if we project to a 100 p e ratio in the future that brings us to about 17 uh sorry 1757 gosh 1757 as a share price the present value of tesla has gone up it's about 780 right now and it's probably gonna be higher on monday maybe it'll cost 800.
that means uh over five years we'd have a compounded annual return of about 17 investing in tesla if this ends up being true which is not bad okay so now obviously we can play with this spreadsheet a little bit if for example i went in here and i said hey what if tesla's revenue per vehicle is higher because maybe they're selling that full self-driving that's forty five thousand dollars uh per vehicle that might bring us to nineteen for uh you know 79 but what i'm actually going to do is i'm gonna go ahead and drop my estimate to be a little bit more conservative and so i'm actually going to just drop this to what if we're only at a 75 p in the future that's 1300 per share that's still on almost 15 annual compounded growth rate between now and 2025.
so and that's with a 75 in the future and again very very important to compare this to uh what you have on the s curve which is right here in my opinion extremely important and uh and it helps visualizing the p e ratio in the future because then it gives you a little bit more of an understanding that okay so high pe does not necessarily mean overvalued now i'm going to make a few more modifications so the first thing i'm going to do is i'm going to change this 22 percent tax rate to 26.9 just in case democrats get their policy through and you'll see this number change when i hit enter here that difference is how much that tax increase is worth in share price so we're going to go from 1757 to about 1647 so that's 110 of a difference if this tax increase goes through a hundred twenty ten dollars as your punishment just because of a higher corporate tax rate which would change your court your um compounded annual rate of return right uh here let's see if we go to the 800 or let's say it's 800 on monday right so 800 on monday present tax rate it gets you about a 17 annual compounded if you got a higher tax rate at 26.9 you would be oh yep let's actually put the little percent sign in there there we go so you'd lose about a percent and a half in return annually because of that higher tax rate by about 4.9 percent another thing that we can do is we can kill uh energy here which is a marginally profitable business so if i kill this and hit enter we should see this go down yep okay so energy business worth about 38 or so so if i kill the energy business we lose about 38 here if i bump the vehicle average selling price this is where you should see a larger move so from 1609 if i bump this up we should yeah see it goes to 1812 so it more than makes up the tax increase and the loss of energy you know if we wanted to play those sorts of scenarios here now one additional thing that i thought was very interesting is if i go in here and i just take uh if i say we make about two billion dollars let's say we're roughly one percent in robo taxi network because the robo taxi network is extremely high margin which i'm just going to assume it has a 30 expense ratio so if you bring in about 1.92 billion you only spend about maybe 570 million in terms of like software engineering development customer service whatever a really high ratio of profit right that's like 70 profit margin you could really see with a lower tax rate you could really see that the stock price move with just a relatively small take rate on robo taxis and so this is where because this is so high margin whereas all of these other items are low margin like services you lose money because it's not just the 95 operating expenses but it's all the other operating expenses on top of that so you're really losing money on services right now you're tentatively losing money on energy or roughly prop barely profitable i expect that to obviously get better in the future but for something like robo taxi income this could have a substantial impact to the bottom line so for example if i bump this to five percent here and we actually make this formulaic here there we go bump this to five percent because we're going to be bringing so much the bottom line expenses are so little we could see that share price move dramatically five percent uh full-time self-driving revenue over about 10 billion dollars of full self-driving revenue uh in addition to car revenue per year in 2025 would would substantially change the profitability for tesla well beyond where we sit now so uh those that's kind of my belief this i would say you know 1300 to 1700 is pretty reasonable for me by 2025.
the thing is the stock might soar before that we could end up getting a euphoric rally between now and uh and 2025 quite frankly we could have a euphoric rally in evs at the end of this year as we get out of the supply chain crisis we could have a euphoric rally in evs and this is why when kathy wood says hey if we hit 3 000 before 2025 it might be time to sell she's right because then the stock would be running way ahead of the fundamentals which some say has already happened but hey uh given where we are in the s curve i think we've got another big rally to go and i'm very happy about the way deliveries came in so congratulations to tesla congratulations to tesla shareholders monday should be a beautiful day thanks so much for watching folks and we'll see you next one you
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