저자: TomNash · 외국인
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테슬라 실적 발표를 앞두고 실적 자체보다 후계자 계획과 자사주 매입 여부가 핵심 관전 포인트라고 주장 테슬라 4분기 실적은 매출 약 250억 달러, 이익 약 40억 달러 수준으로 큰 서프라이즈는 없을 것으로 예상하며, 실적이 좋으면 주가가 급등하고 나쁘면 급락한다고 봄 테슬라가 CEO 의존 리스크를 줄이기 위한 명확한 승계 계획을 제시하는지와, 2023년 50~100억 달러 규모 자사주 매입을 실행하는지를 주목. 자사주 매입 축소는 머스크가 경기침체를 예상한다는 신호로 해석 마이클 버리의 새로운 경고는 2000년 직전 시장 상황과 유사하다는 차트 주장. 그의 예측은 합리적이며 가능성도 있으나 확정은 아니라고 평가 구글이 전체 인력의 6%인 약 1만 2천 명을 감원한 것은 경기침체를 강하게 확신하기 때문으로 해석. 보잉의 실적 부진과 비용 상승, 수요 감소는 경기 선행지표 신호라고 설명 마이크로소프트는 클라우드(Azure) 성장이 둔화됐으나 여전히 약 30% 성장 중이며, 반복 매출 구조가 견고해 매도하기 어렵고 여전히 최고의 기업 중 하나라고 평가 힌덴부르크 리서치가 역사상 최대 금융사기를 폭로할 예정이라고 예고했으나 대상 기업은 공개되지 않음. 공매도 세력은 테슬라를 기대하지만 발표자는 그렇지 않을 것으로 봄
다듬은 글
hey everybody this is Tom and I know I sound like crap I sound like Bane and Batman just had a baby and that's a compliment but guess what I just beat pneumonia so suck at pneumonia now look I can't wait to go back into this conversation mode with you guys so maybe I'm rushing it but it is what it is I just want to get back out there and have a chat with you now in today's video I want to cover Tesla Michael burry's new warning Hindenburg research dropping a huge bombshell Google Microsoft employing some important updates now look before I start this video I gotta update you about something important I've been watching The Last of Us on HBO Max huge fan of the video game by the way my bathroom just locked itself there's nobody here so instinctively I ran to the kitchen to grab a knife and then I realized the latch broke and then I realized I should not be watching The Last of Us in the middle of the night fabricating a chef in the kitchen oh my goodness anyways let's start with Tesla real quick Tesla's reporting earnings today huge day look not gonna be a lot of surprises 25 or so just under 25 billion of revenues about just under 4 billion of profits not a lot of surprises everybody's talking about recessionary fears competitions coming Elon Musk is you know hurting the brand and what are the interest rates it's going to do to Tesla price drops EV tax credit all of this is already on the table the truth is very simple for the people who actually trade test around earnings which I don't it's very simple the numbers are good the stock is going to fly the numbers are bad the stock is going to drop like a stone simple what I'm curious about is two things that I don't think get covered a lot and are even more important than these short-term nonsense the two things I'm looking at is number one will Tesla provide a proper succession plan to show there's a limited keyman risk with Tesla it's not all about Elon it's not a one-man show it's been already on the kind of docket for a long time institutional investors are looking forward for something like that maybe now is a good time to actually showcase that more importantly I want to look at the BuyBacks will Tesla announce BuyBacks and I'm not rooting for one way or the other I know Gary black wants them I know other people are not so sure that's the right way to spend Tesla's money maybe more factories or whatnot but here's why BuyBacks are important BuyBacks essentially if it's a company actually buying back its own shares it's a vote of confidence now for me Elon Musk is one of the smartest people on the planet so what Elon does here is very important now in October Elon said we're gonna probably implement share Buybacks in the realm of 5 to 10 billion dollars in 2023 now he said it now the reason that I'm curious to see what is actually going to do if it's going to follow through or they're not it's not because I want to name call him a liar which some people have made a career out of is because I want to see what he thinks about the recession if Elon Musk says anything about this that this basically eliminates his previous statement and he backtracks on it basically tells me that he thinks a recession is coming and it's going to get worse and if that's the case there's no sense in buying back shares now if things are about to get much worse why would we buy bike shares now when everything is about to get worse if he kind of follows through with that and he actually talks more about BuyBacks and the BuyBacks plan actually goes forward it shows me that Elon Musk is not on that recession bandwagon so I'm looking forward to see what Elon does not says that will indicate what he really thinks about the recession that's my main takeaway from this Q4 earnings not the [ __ ] that everybody is focused on now Michael Berry just issued another warning he's basically saying that this is kind of the period when the market shut up slightly before the big crash of 2001-2000 and there's a very famous chart that he pulled up on this Twitter I guess Michael Berry is like one of them and page trees some people love them and swear by them these pastries and some people just hate them some people love Michael Berry and love his predictions other people absolutely hate him I think he's been right a lot he's been wrong a lot but at the very least it's very entertaining and I don't know if he's right or wrong but let me tell you what he's definitely in love with the attention we're all giving him and absolutely love it because I totally get where he's coming from is this a reasonable prediction yes um is it possible yes and is the indicator is there to Showcase that what he's saying is correct yes will it happen I don't know but guess what I'm not Michael Berry I don't have to make this prediction now another company that thinks that Michael Berry might be right is Google Google is laying off 12 000 employees six percent of their Workforce you don't do that as Google because of the pr nightmare you're gonna have as you've seen over the past few days unless you are 100 certain recession is coming because Google is now not looking so hot now it tells me that Sundar and the Sergey and and the entire management team in Google they think that it's really going to get bad because this is the sort of decision you kind of make with the founders so a six percent cut is usually not something you do unless you're convinced of a recession so we know where Google is at now if you want to look at other indicators boy just announced that they basically missed revenues in EPS it's a very simple thing costs are going up cost of Labor going up demand is going down when flights and Airlines have always been a leading indicator in the recession so whenever things get really really bad airlines are the first one to get hit it's the first thing that people stop doing luxury travel and all that stuff is the first thing that actually suffers so you can really see that Boeing is showing slight signs of a pre recession environment now I want to talk about Microsoft for example as a different kind of way of looking at stock NOW Microsoft just reported earnings and they were fine they were fine nothing out of the ordinary the only thing is that Azure their Cloud business is slowing down and it's slowed down significantly but guess what they were flying so high that even post slow down they're at like 30 annual growth look um is this a good time to bail on Microsoft I don't know but let me tell you what it's very hard for me to bet against Microsoft because the cloud business is just absolutely insane they have a recurring revenue from just office as as horrible as their as their Computing business is they're creating a lot of recurring Revenue they're dominating the business to business software industry it's very hard to say hey Microsoft is going down I think it's more like Microsoft is adjusting to post kind of pandemic realism then Microsoft is dropping like a stone so to me Microsoft is still one of the best companies to own out there a final word from Hindenburg the company that have predicted the downfall of Nikola among others just dropped a tweet that they're about to uncover the biggest financial fraud in history and it's exciting because they very rarely get things wrong of course they haven't said which company it is I'm sure that Gordon Johnson sitting there like saying I wish it's Tesla a lot of short sellers are hoping it's Tesla and I doubt it but let's see who it is I can't wait a shout out to Nate from Hindenburg research terrific work and wait we made it through this video and I still have my voice I know it sounds really horrible for those of you who lost it through this video despite my voice thank you so much I'm slightly embarrassed by more happy to be here with you so my happiness from sharing this time with you is outweighing my embarrassment by my dead cat bounce voice I see you next video
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