저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
Marc Faber는 정부 부채 급증과 이자비용 증가로 정책당국이 금리를 낮추고 통화를 더 찍을 압력이 커진다고 본다. 이는 금 가격에 우호적인 환경이며 장기적으로 실물 금을 꾸준히 보유할 것을 권한다. 반면 AI·반도체 버블이 꺼질 경우 해당 종목들이 가장 크게 하락하고 일부는 파산할 수 있다고 경고한다. 다만 금 가격 상승을 보장하지는 않으며, 하락장에서 상대적으로 덜 떨어질 것이라는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
Now, interest on government debt could theoretically be deflationary, but if you print money, then of course it becomes extremely inflationary. And in such conditions, gold is a means of preserving value. For the last 40 years, I have been arguing that central banks can no longer be trusted. You should be your own central bank and store some gold yourself.
This is documented in my books, in my articles, and in my interviews. I have always advised people to buy gold every month and continue to do so myself, but I am not sure that gold will go up—it may fall less than other assets, however. The gold market could face serious changes if rising public debt forces politicians to ease monetary policy.
Marc Faber argues that monetary inflation is a fundamentally positive factor for gold. He worries that as public debt and interest costs rise, policymakers may face pressure to lower borrowing costs, even if it means printing more money. This pressure could become particularly strong in the United States.
If interest rates remain high and the federal debt continues to grow, it will be harder for the government to manage interest payments. This could increase political pressure to lower rates and ease financial conditions. But Faber sees another risk in another part of the market—stocks of companies in the field of artificial intelligence and semiconductors.
He believes that the current “bubble” may eventually burst, with AI and semiconductor companies likely to suffer the most. Some of them may even go bankrupt. In his opinion, gold may prove more resilient during such a sell-off, but he does not guarantee that the price of gold will necessarily increase.
It may also become cheaper. The key point is relative performance. During a serious market downturn, gold may lose less in value than speculative assets. That's why his long-term approach is quite simple. Constantly accumulate some physical gold instead of trying to predict every market move. The rationale is simple .
While governments and central banks cannot always protect purchasing power, owning a physical asset outside the financial system provides an additional layer of protection. There is also a much more extreme risk that is worth considering. Faber suggests the possibility that a future government could restrict private ownership of gold or require citizens to exchange gold for newly minted dollars.
He presents this as a hypothetical political scenario, not a forecast. If you found this analysis useful, please like, subscribe, and share it with other investors who are following the situation. We are here to continue to bring you sharp analysis and expert opinions from people who really understand what is going on.
Thank you for watching. The role of central banks in financing these deficits, which in turn leads to higher or lower rates of cost of living and asset inflation. And all these factors are very complex. And we also don't know exactly how the economy works . We know about demand, supply, etc., but we don't know for sure whether interventions are desirable or not.
In most cases, they are undesirable. But it may be that in some cases they are desirable or that some policy measures are favorable, while most policy decisions are unfavorable. So all of these factors make the life of an advisor or someone who looks after money increasingly difficult. And while history repeats itself, we have certain conditions in the world today that are unprecedented in the history of the capitalist system and the free market.
And this unprecedented condition is the high level of debt that we have in the world. And is it possible to reduce debt to a more manageable level without causing significant harm to society or the economy. And all these questions constantly arise in my mind and make me relatively cautious or prudent in my investments.
And then there are these cyclical theories that point to a slowdown in global economic growth or a recession. And all these things don't confuse me or keep me awake. I sleep relatively well, but they occupy my thoughts as a newsletter writer. What is the size of the economy and how do you measure whether it has actually grown or shrunk?
Because theoretically we can have a stagnant or contracting economy, but you and I print enough money and pump it into the system , which causes debt levels to rise and asset prices to rise, whether it's housing or stocks or whatever, and then people can think they've made progress, when in fact, as you just hinted, in real terms, adjusted for inflation, they're worse off now than they were 20 years ago.
It is possible. They think they are richer, and nominally they are . They had $1 million , their assets grew to, say, $10 million, but the purchasing power of that $10 million is lower than the $1 million they had 20 years ago. It is possible. And some members of society who do not have or did not have any assets, their well-being has not increased at all because they do not have any assets, and their wages have not increased in real terms.
In other words, in nominal terms they have a higher hourly minimum wage than they did 20 years ago; but the cost of living, i.e. rent, insurance premiums, taxes, payments to municipalities, etc. , has increased more significantly than salaries. So, taking into account inflation , they are barely making ends meet .
The next phase of the global economy may be defined by one problem that governments are trying to solve: debt. Marc Faber expects a weakening of global economic growth with the possibility of an outright contraction. He sees in the economic cycle itself a warning that the world could be heading towards a period of significant slowdown.
But a bigger concern is the unprecedented level of global debt. The difficult question is not simply how governments will reduce this debt. And whether they can do it without causing serious harm to the economy or society. Faber is skeptical that there is an easy way out. This presents politicians with a difficult choice.
Central bank decisions and government deficit financing may remain the main drivers of inflation and asset prices. If governments continue to run large deficits, the way they finance them could have a significant impact on everything from consumer prices to stocks and other financial assets. This creates an extremely challenging backdrop for investors.
Let's get back to the interview. Monetary inflation is a gift for gold prices. An even bigger gift to gold prices are fools or buffoons like Mr. Trump and an arrogant and ignorant Treasury Secretary like Mr. Mnuchin. Mr. Warsh is not necessarily the kind of scientist who is very useful for gold, because he is a truly educated economist.
I have to admit this. I read his speeches and articles. He is very knowledgeable in economics, and not just in modern economic theories; he understands the theories of the classics from Adam Smith to Hayek, von Mises, Schumpeter, and so on. And he knows that printing money is disastrous in the long run.
But, of course, theoretically he would like to raise interest rates. However, now he is a politician. Will he be able to do it? He can. He may find himself under great pressure from his colleagues at the Ministry of Finance. The Treasury Department is essentially praying for lower interest rates, because at this level—let alone an increase—the cost of servicing the debt is growing very quickly, as the debt increases and rates are higher than, say, 5-10 years ago.
We didn't have problems before, and all these economists said that debt didn't matter, you know, these modern monetary theories, these absurd theories. But in a " bull" market, people believe in everything, even absurd things. Debt levels exploded, and this was possible as long as interest rates were falling, because interest payments were not increasing.
When interest rates started to rise after August 2020, it became a burden, and now it is the largest expense item at $1.1 trillion per year— interest on the national debt. Theoretically, interest on government debt could be deflationary, but if you print money to cover it, it becomes extremely inflationary.
And in such conditions, gold is a store of value, and for the last 40 years I have been advocating the view that central banks can no longer be trusted. You should be your own central bank and hold some gold yourself. This is documented in my books, in my writings, and in my interviews. I have always advised people to buy a little gold every month and continue to do so myself.
But I'm not sure that gold will go up, but it may fall less than other assets. So, if I had to make a list of what would fall the most when the bubble bursts , I would include semiconductor stocks and stocks related to artificial intelligence. Many of these companies are going bankrupt, going bankrupt.
And gold will remain, although, as you know, there 's always the risk that the government, especially under someone like Mr. Trump, will say, "Well, gold is good, but private ownership of gold is unpatriotic." That the government can hold gold, but private individuals are not allowed to. You see, if the government could lock down the population during COVID, and the population accepted it, they agreed to be locked down and forced to take vaccines—they all agreed—then they probably wouldn't do anything if the government came along and said, " Excuse me, we have to take your gold ." We will pay for it.
We'll give you some dollars that we'll print, they can issue freshly printed dollar bills with Mr. Trump's signature on them, because by then America will be called " Trumpland." Markets rarely change direction when everyone is ready for it. Large-scale shifts often begin quietly, as investors begin to question whether old assumptions about growth, valuations, and public finances are still valid.
A world with record levels of debt may have less capacity to absorb higher borrowing costs, while weaker economic activity could increase pressure in favor of policies that support markets at the expense of the purchasing power of the currency. Physical bullion may become more attractive precisely because it is outside the company's balance sheet or government promises.
And if policymakers respond to economic tensions with a new wave of monetary expansion, the consequences could go far beyond interest rates or stock prices. They can completely change the way investors approach capital preservation. The key issue may not be whether a particular asset is rising or falling, but whether the financial system is entering a period where protecting purchasing power becomes more important than the pursuit of profits.
If this shift begins, could gold become one of the key alternatives when investors begin to doubt the stability of both markets and currencies? So stay with us. If you like financial system analysis backed by real data, like and subscribe so you don't miss weekly updates. Thanks for your support, I hope you enjoy this video.
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