저자: BillHolter및MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
Holter는 은 현물 인도(failure to deliver)가 발생하면 파생상품 체계가 붕괴되고 자금이 금·은으로 이동할 것이라고 주장하며, 상하이·인도 프리미엄 괴리를 근거로 제시한다. Faber는 금이 2년간 급등해 과매수 상태라 단기 조정이 예상되지만 중앙은행 부채 부담으로 장기 강세장은 유지된다고 본다. 또한 미국 주식은 MAG7·반도체 비중이 높고 에너지·해외는 저평가돼 있다고 지적하며 구체적 가격 전망은 피한다.
다듬은 글
Uh, once you see a failure to deliver in silver within, I'm going to say within 72 hours, it's pretty much game over because the entire derivatives edifice is going to crumble because credit {slash} derivatives are based on trust, based on confidence. And if you fail to deliver on a contract, it it displays to the world that that contract was a fraud.
And if you've got uh fraudulent contracts out there, you're going to have capital fleeing looking for a safe place. And that safe place But you have to see that gold has gone up like a rocket over the last 2 years and it became very overbought and I think a correction is due. Moreover, many people bought gold as a substitute for the US dollar.
But it looks as if the US dollar is now stable or even appreciating against other currencies. So, I think that gold may be in a correction phase. Uh, I don't think that the bull market is necessarily over. Storm clouds gather over the precious metals market as gold and silver move through a moment that many analysts believe could reshape global finance.
Prices have surged dramatically in recent years, drawing attention from investors who see the metals not only as commodities, but as indicators of deeper financial stresses. With silver recently rebounding toward $82 per ounce and safe haven demand rising amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, the debate over whether precious metals are approaching a decisive turning point has intensified.
Bill Holter, financial commentator, argues that the silver market may be approaching a critical test centered on delivery obligations in futures markets. He believes that if a major failure to deliver physical silver were to occur, the consequences could extend far beyond the metal sector. In his view, modern derivatives markets depend heavily on trust and confidence.
Should exchanges fail to fulfill physical delivery on contracts, Holter suggests that investors might interpret this as evidence that the system is operating on claims rather than actual assets. Such an event, he says, could prompt capital to rapidly exit paper markets and move toward tangible stores of value like gold and silver.
Holter also points to structural changes in the silver market. Historically, many futures contracts that initially stood for delivery were later settled in cash rather than physical metal. However, he notes that in recent years more buyers appear willing to hold contracts through expiration and request physical delivery.
According to his interpretation, this shift has placed increased pressure on available inventories. With registered silver stocks estimated near 100 million ounces and open contracts representing significantly larger volumes, he believes the possibility of supply strain cannot be ignored if delivery demand continues to grow.
Another development Holter highlights is the apparent divergence between futures pricing in Western markets and physical demand in Asia. If this insight added value for you, consider supporting the channel by liking the video, subscribing for future updates, and turning on notifications so you stay informed whenever new analysis is released.
Well, we're we're looking at a ultimately a failure to deliver. And a failure to deliver, I mean, I've I've said for years now that silver was the fuse that would blow up the gold gold's derivative bomb, if you will, and that immediately spills over to credit markets. It must be understood that the reason gold and the reason silver have been suppressed since 1975, since they started uh futures contracts on the metals, The reason for the suppression is to allow or was to allow uh the financial world, the media to point at gold and say, "See, gold bad, dollar good." And a low gold price allowed the US government basically to borrow unlimited amounts of capital.
I mean, had gold been left to its own and traded to uh uh at levels multiples probably of where it is right now. That scares uh that scares money away from uh US credit. So, it was a way uh suppressing gold and silver was a way to uh support, if you will, the dollar and also, most importantly, the ability of the US Treasury to borrow.
Uh once you see a failure to deliver in silver within I'm going to say within 72 hours, it's pretty much game over because the entire derivatives edifice is going to crumble because credit {slash} derivatives are based on trust, based on confidence. And if you fail to deliver on a contract, it it displays to the world that that contract was a fraud.
And if you've got uh fraudulent contracts out there, you're going to have capital fleeing looking for a safe place. And that safe place just happens to be gold and silver that they've suppressed for so many years because they can't bankrupt, they cannot default in a world that is in the process of the the big picture.
It's exactly what you said in December, and it's just continuing to play out. What What did you say of what would happen in in March? Well, I said, "Watch out for the the March delivery month simply because the the game has changed." It used to be that and I'll just use the number 100. Uh it used to be 100 contracts would stand for delivery on first notice day, and by the time it came to deliver, there might only be six or seven or or three or 12 contracts that actually stand for delivery.
They they they all got basically paid in fiat to walk away and not take the metal. What was happening is if you go back five years, 10 plus years, it used to be that the the pricing of gold, the pricing of silver was strictly done in collusion between LBMA and the CME, New York and London. But what's happening now is the the demand for silver because it has so many different uses, the tail, meaning the derivatives market, is no longer wagging the dog.
The dog is standing up on its own and it's starting to wag the tail. In other words, the cash markets are pricing silver, they're pricing gold, the the futures contracts in New York and London be damned. And that's proven, just look at the price in Shanghai. Look at I mean, look at the price in Shanghai.
the price in India. They're both at a premium right now. Shanghai's $11 higher. In what world could that exist without arbitrage? And the reason the arbitrage is not closing that gap is because if you sell a contract or sell physical metal in Shanghai, now you're short and you buy it on the you buy it in in New York and if you don't get delivered on, you're short, pure and simple.
So, the reason the arbitrage that spread exists is because in my opinion, traders are afraid to go short in Shanghai because they don't know 100% positive that they're going to be delivered on in New York. Swiss investor, economist, and author Dr. Marc Faber offers a somewhat different perspective. While acknowledging gold's strong rise over the past two years, he believes the metal may experience a temporary correction after becoming technically overbought.
Faber suggests that some investors initially bought gold as a hedge against weakness in the US dollar. And if the dollar stabilizes or strengthens against other currencies, short-term pressure on gold prices could follow. However, he does not view this as necessarily ending the broader long-term bull trend.
Faber argues that the larger economic context still favors precious metals over time. Governments around the world are carrying historically high levels of debt, which limits the ability of central banks to significantly tighten monetary policy. He also observes that financial markets remain heavily concentrated in technology and large-cap growth stocks, while sectors such as energy and certain international markets remain relatively underweighted.
Faber notes that investment flows can shift significantly when valuations become stretched in one area of the market. Combined with geopolitical tensions and volatility in commodities like oil, this imbalance could create unpredictable movements across global markets. In his view, economic and political events rarely produce immediate financial outcomes.
Instead, their impact tends to unfold gradually over time. Let's get back to the video. To see that gold has gone up uh like a rocket over the last 2 years, and it became very overbought, and I think a correction is due. Moreover, many people bought gold as a substitute for the US dollar, but it looks as if the US dollar is now stable or even appreciating against other currencies.
So, I think that gold may be in a correction phase. Uh I don't think that the bull market is necessarily over because I don't believe that central banks around the world, given the very high level of government debt that exists in most countries that central banks around the world can actually tighten monetary policies, the damage would be very considerable.
So, my sense is that they will continue to print money and that this will continue to diminish the purchasing power of money. In other words, your money depreciates in value as it has over the last four years. I mean, 40 years ago you had a dollar, you went out, you could buy a much larger basket of goods and services than you can do that than you can do now.
So, money has lost its purchasing power and if I look at the leadership in the Western world, both in Europe and especially now in the US with Mr. Trump, I think that under him the purchasing power of paper money will diminish even at a more rapid pace than until now. In other words, rapid depreciation of purchasing power of money and that means that people will opt for something that has throughout history been a stable currency and that is gold and silver.
You can have a gold go up a few hundred dollars in say a week and the next day next week it is down a few hundred dollars and you could have oil moving up now and then they announce that they are negotiations about a ceasefire and gold tumbles. I mean, oil tumbles $10 a barrel. You understand, it's very volatile and that's why I'm reluctant to make any precise projections, but in general, financial institutions are still overweight the MAG 7 stocks, the Nvidias of this world, the semiconductors, and so forth.
And these stocks are highly priced. They're underweight still emerging markets, they're underweight foreign markets, European markets, and they're underweight the oil and energy stocks that if you look at ETFs, the size of ETFs, and you compare them to the market capitalization, the money that is in energy ETFs.
Very true. You know all these correlations when people ask me, "In a war, do stocks go up or go down?" Well, there wars during which stocks go up, and there wars during which stocks go down. As I It depends what's the stock market low or high before the war. If before the war stocks were very low, a war can actually be positive for stock prices.
In other words, if if the market is in a bull phase, a war may actually propel stocks even higher. [clears throat] The impact of a policy is immediate, but it's seldom immediate. Normally it takes time. But secondly, I want to stress here the public is of course misled by the government. The government will say, "Well, we have inflation.
Why? Because of Putin, because of the late Khomeini, because of Xi Jinping in China." And there were all kinds of excuses. Really excuses that are only used by lunatics, but that the government is serving it to the public in because they will never admit it to the public that money is losing its purchasing power at an alarming rate.
Every inflation has not been noticed by people vividly. You understand? People go to work, then they get a salary increase, say 5%, and then they're happy. They get more salary. They don't realize that the prices on the shelves in the supermarket have gone up 10%, but they get a 5% increase in the salary.
They think, "Oh, I earn much more. I'm so clever." No. Prices in the supermarkets go up by 10%. So, the real purchasing power of money is going down because the prices have gone up at a more rapid pace. Both perspectives ultimately point toward a period of uncertainty rather than a single predetermined outcome.
Holter focuses on structural vulnerabilities within the silver futures market and the possibility that physical demand could challenge established pricing mechanisms. Faber, meanwhile, concentrates on broader macroeconomic forces such as monetary policy, government debt, and the long-term erosion of currency purchasing power.
While their interpretations differ in tone, both acknowledge that precious metals continue to reflect deep tensions within the global financial system. In the coming months, investors will likely watch several indicators closely: delivery volumes in futures markets, price differences between physical and paper trading hubs, central bank policy decisions, and geopolitical developments that influence safe haven demand.
These factors together may determine whether precious metals enter a phase of consolidation, experience heightened volatility, or begin another significant upward move. The interaction between physical supply, investor confidence, and global monetary policy may ultimately define the next chapter in the gold and silver markets.
Could rising physical demand and shifting global financial conditions eventually push precious metals markets into a moment where paper pricing mechanisms face their most serious test? If this discussion gave you useful perspective, be sure to like the video, subscribe to the channel, and share it with anyone keeping an eye on the gold market.
Appreciate you watching. Stay informed, stay thoughtful, and see you in the next update.
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