저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
장기 국채 가격 하락과 금리 상승이 지속되며 국채가 안전자산 역할을 잃고 있다고 주장. 금은 안전자산으로 부상할 것이며 금 4,000달러 지지, 은 60달러 지지 유지 전망. 인플레 기대 5.1%, 고용 악화 및 주택시장 침체 우려, 채권시장 붕괴 가능성 경고. 해당 영상은 자신이 운영하는 금 판매 채널 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
If investors were looking for stability and security by buying bonds, and now they can't do that because they're losing too much money, especially considering inflation , then where should they go next? Gold. This is the last safe haven left. I already said this. And you just need to take advantage of the opportunity that the markets provide.
People are so stupid that they think stagflation and rising debt are bad for gold. They are wrong, but they are giving you a chance to take advantage of their ignorance by buying what they are selling. So again , make sure you head to Shift Gold and take advantage of this drop while it lasts. Buy more gold and silver.
If you don't have gold or silver, go and buy some. The traditional safe harbor may be losing its edge. If Treasury yields continue to rise, bond prices will continue to feel pressure, and investors holding long-term debt could suffer losses, even despite more attractive nominal rates. Peter Schiff argues that this shift could increasingly direct capital toward gold and silver.
The key contradiction is that higher yields are usually seen as competition for precious metals . But Schiff believes that this connection eventually breaks down, as rising yields can become a signal of deeper problems rather than a sign of higher returns. He expects the supply of US government debt and sustained inflation to continue to push bond yields higher.
In his view, this is different from a simple growth story driven by a strong economy or investment in AI. As more debt enters the market, investors may demand more compensation for holding it. And if inflation continues to erode purchasing power, real bond yields become even less attractive. This creates a second problem.
If bond prices continue to fall, investors seeking capital preservation may begin to reconsider their understanding of what “safe” really means. Schiff expects central banks to be part of this shift. He believes that if central banks reduce their Treasury bond portfolios, some of that capital could instead move into gold.
He expects gold to remain around $4,000, arguing that even a temporary dip below that mark is unlikely to last long. He also identifies the level around $60 as an important support zone for silver. But the broader argument is more important than any specific price level. Schiff believes that bonds are gradually losing their traditional role as a safe haven, especially given inflation .
In his opinion, gold may increasingly take on this role as investors face falling bond prices, persistent inflation and a growing burden of public debt. If you need clearer, data-driven analysis of markets, economics, and the forces driving global capital, subscribe and stay with us. New analyses are published every day.
Yields rose again yesterday, so it's been 2 days since I recorded my podcast over the weekend. So you got another 2 days of rising yields because of the increase on Friday and what happened on Monday, the gold market crashed hard yesterday . Gold prices fell to about $170 per ounce. Silver fell about 3.5.
Metals recovered a bit today. Gold has recovered almost $70, but is still down $100 in 2 days. Silver also rose slightly today. Looking at the prices, gold is worth 4,180, 4,180. And silver is about $61.40. But what was significant about this sell-off was that gold held strong above 4,000. And I said on the podcast that 4,000 is a support level for gold.
Can it go a little lower? Of course. I wouldn't expect it to stay there for long, if it goes down at all. And silver has a lot of support around 60. So, we are holding the support zones. But markets were wrong again, assuming that these rising bond yields were bearish for gold and silver. This is not true.
In fact, they are bullish. Bonds are falling in price. People lose money on bonds. That's why profitability is increasing. And if you lose money on bonds, if you want to avoid further losses and sell your bonds, what will you buy? You will buy gold. Central banks that sell Treasuries will certainly buy gold.
But the main reason I think bond yields are rising is not because economic growth is so great and there are lots of opportunities to invest in AI capital spending, although there are, but that's not the main driver. I think yields are rising because of the supply of debt and the specter of rising inflation, and because we are currently in a long-term bear market in bonds.
Bonds will continue to fall, rates will continue to rise, and in such conditions you want to own precious metals. You want to own gold and silver because that's how you hedge bonds. Until recently, people viewed bonds as their hedge. But bonds have performed the worst in the last 10 years in the last 100 years.
And that's not all. Bond prices will continue to fall. So, if you need a safe haven from what used to be your safe haven, if investors were looking for stability and safety in bonds and now can't do that because they're losing too much money on them, especially considering inflation . Where to go next?
In gold. This is the last safe haven left. I already said that. And you should take advantage of the opportunity that the markets provide you. People are foolish enough to think stagflation and rising debt are bad for gold. They are wrong, but they are giving you a chance to take advantage of their ignorance by buying what they are selling.
So, again , be sure to head over to Shift Gold and take advantage of this discount while it's still available. Buy more gold and silver. If you don't have any gold or silver, go and buy some. What's even more important about today's bond sell-off is that it occurred against a backdrop of weak economic data.
Just like during the Friday sell-off, which I mentioned on the podcast over the weekend: bonds fell in price, despite the pullback in oil prices. And you know , one of the reasons for the drop in oil prices was optimism about some kind of deal. The Iranians have proposed certain conditions for a ceasefire or the resumption of traffic in the strait.
But Trump, you know, over the weekend strongly rejected all of that . So, all these hopes were in vain, as I had predicted. But what was significant about Friday's rise in bond yields was that falling oil prices didn't help. You would expect, based on the last few months, that bond yields would fall along with the price of oil, as they were highly correlated.
But no, bond yields still rose. Well, today's weak economic data would normally be a positive signal for bonds because it would be interpreted as, "Oh , the economy is weakening." Maybe the Fed won't be able to raise rates, right? As the economy weakens. This will slow down the rate hike. But the market simply ignored it.
The next serious warning for financial markets may not come from stocks. This could happen because the bond market will react poorly to weak economic data. Peter Schiff expects inflation expectations in the US to remain high, potentially exceeding the level of around 5.1% that consumers had been expecting next year.
He believes that real price increases may ultimately be even higher. At the same time, he expects the labor market to weaken. Schiff suggests that the upcoming labor market report could be worse than the previous month, and the initial numbers could later be revised downward. But employment figures themselves are not the signal he watches most closely.
The real test is what happens to Treasury bonds next. Typically, weaker employment figures can reinforce expectations of looser monetary policy and support bond prices. If weak employment data comes amid further falling bond prices and rising yields , Schiff argues, it would indicate the development of much more serious problems in the bond market.
And this pressure will not be limited to Treasury obligations. Higher yields could increase the cost of borrowing in the economy, putting additional pressure on stocks. Schiff believes that the successes of big AI and tech companies could mask weakness in other sectors, and more stocks could come under pressure if rates remain high.
The housing sector faces an even more immediate problem. Higher mortgage rates make monthly payments less affordable for buyers, while homeowners with older mortgages at lower rates have less incentive to sell. This could result in potential buyers being unable to afford housing, and the supply on the market will remain limited .
Now let's get back to the interview. Think about what has happened in the last 12 years. In particular, about the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, when people were afraid they would die. It was as if the entire economy was shutting down. It was like, you know, an apocalypse, like something out of a science fiction movie .
And even in the midst of this hysteria, people were more confident in the future than they are now. These are bad figures, and one of the reasons is that inflation expectations for next year, in my opinion, have increased to 5.1%. So, again, the Fed claims that inflation expectations are securely anchored at 2%, but consumers expect 5.1%, and they are probably wrong, because it will actually be even higher.
In fact, the figures are even higher if we do not use the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to measure inflation. If you look at real prices and what is actually happening, not what the government is trying to show through the CPI. But despite this unexpected drop in consumer confidence, bond yields still rose.
So, they didn't benefit from this weak data. Bonds also did not benefit from the JOLTS data, which turned out to be weaker than expected: 7.225 million vacancies were predicted, and the figure fell to 7.079, which is even below the lower end of the range. It was expected between 7.15 and 7.30. So fewer vacancies should usually be a positive for bonds.
Employers don't plan to hire that many people. Signs of a crack in the labor market or even larger fractures. However, bonds did not react to this. Tomorrow we will get new data on jobs. They may already be out by the time you listen to this podcast, as we await the ADP private sector employment report.
The main report will be released on Friday— government data on the number of jobs outside of agriculture. I will record another podcast at the end of the week to summarize and analyze these numbers. My forecast is that the figures will be weak, because last month's data turned out to be much better than expected, and I expect them to be revised downwards .
I don't believe last month's numbers, as I've already said, and I expect them to be revised, and on Friday we'll see a weaker report. So, let's see if I'm right. But more importantly, if the numbers are weak and the bond market fails to rise, and even starts to fall on the back of a weak labor market—watch out, it will be bad!
We may be on the verge of a bond market crash, because so far the rise in yields, while methodical, has remained very orderly. It was not like a bond market crash. They just continue to gradually become cheaper day by day. It's like slow water torture if you're in the bond market. Meanwhile, the stock market ignores all of this.
Yes, I mentioned that 60% of S&P companies are actually in a " bear" market. So, despite such weak market breadth, AI-related stocks and other tech companies are doing so well that they are masking the poor performance of most other stocks, which will continue to suffer from rising rates. But the housing market and the economy will be hit the hardest.
And I want to talk about it now because the media doesn't pay enough attention to this topic. Yes, they may highlight rising mortgage rates, but the story is much more complicated than just rates. First, the JOLTS report reported that employment in housing-related industries—realtors, appraisers, or mortgage brokers— also fell to a 12- year low.
Of course, there are many more people living in America now. The population has grown over the last 12 years, but we have fewer people working in the real estate market. I think they said about 50 thousand or something like that. I think the number was exactly that. And it's not because, you know, they've all been replaced by robots.
This has not happened yet. The reason there are significantly fewer people working in the industry is that there is minimal activity right now because no one can afford to buy a house. And of course, homeowners can't afford to sell them because they have nowhere to go, they're stuck there with their low mortgage rates.
But those who don't own a home can't afford to buy one because prices are too high, and now mortgage rates are too high. The real warning is not simply that yields are rising. And what will rising yields mean if the economy is simultaneously losing momentum? A weakening labor market, stress in the housing sector and pressure on stocks would normally have contributed to lower rates.
If Treasury yields continue to rise, it will reveal a deeper conflict between economic weakness and the market's willingness to absorb inflation and government debt. For investors, this is the main conclusion. The bond market can be a key signal linking inflation, borrowing costs, asset valuations, and the economy as a whole.
The question is whether higher yields remain an opportunity for profit or become a warning of financial instability. Which signal would you follow most closely? A weakening labor market or rising Treasury yields ? Stay with us for in-depth, data-driven analysis of markets, money, and global finance. Like and subscribe. Thank you for watching.
Comments 0