저자: AlasdairMacleod&MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
중국 은행의 금괴 부족과 상하이금거래소 해외 금고를 통한 금-위안 교환 메커니즘이 금 상승의 촉매가 될 것이라고 주장. 중국의 은 수출 허가제와 희토류 수출 금지로 서방 은 공급이 제한될 수 있으며, 은 역시 금을 따라 오를 것으로 봄. 구리는 금 대비 극도로 저평가돼 있어 상승 여지가 크다고 봄. Faber는 주식 강세장이 2024년 말~2025년에 정점을 찍었다고 보고, 단기적으로 금은 조정 국면이며 달러가 안정되는 점을 우려. 다만 정부부채 증가와 중앙은행의 긴축 불가로 장기적으로 금·은 강세장은 유효하다고 봄. 채권은 주식보다 덜 떨어질 것으로 전망.
다듬은 글
People going into gold, I think the big stuff going into gold. That I think is the next move up and it leaves leads it will leave silver with it. I mean, this is why I think that you know, the big banks members of the LBMA you know, the the active dealers in in on COMEX are trying to get the hell out of silver because they can see what's coming.
I think that gold may be in a correction phase. I don't think that the bull market is necessarily over because I don't believe that central banks around the world given the very high level of government debt that exists in most countries, that central banks around the world can actually tighten monetary policies.
A growing sense of confusion appears to be gripping global markets as traditional signals are failing to behave as expected. Despite mounting economic and geopolitical stress, equities have not declined as sharply as many would anticipate while bond yields have only moved modestly when a far larger rise might normally occur.
Investors are reacting in a familiar way seeking safety in the US dollar, but this instinctive shift may be misguided. Alasdair Macleod argues that this misunderstanding may soon become evident as investors increasingly turn toward physical gold. Reports that major Chinese banks are running short of gold bars suggest that demand in the East is intensifying.
At the same time, China is expanding the infrastructure of the Shanghai Gold by opening vaults in places such as Hong Kong and potentially Riyadh, creating a system where gold can be exchanged directly for yuan. Macleod believes that if China eventually fixes a gold yuan exchange rate during a period of dollar weakness, it could trigger a significant shift in global monetary dynamics while allowing China to frame the move as a defensive action rather than an attack on Western currencies.
Macleod also highlights growing strategic competition in commodities. Following trade tensions and tariff threats, China restricted exports of rare earth elements and introduced a new licensing system for silver exports, which may effectively limit supply to the West particularly significant after the United States classified silver as a critical mineral.
In his view, the broader story extends beyond precious metals to commodities because decades of fiat currency expansion have suppressed real commodity prices. Metals such as copper appear dramatically undervalued when measured against gold. If you found value in this breakdown, please hit the like button, subscribe, and share it with other investors who are paying close attention.
We're here to keep bringing you sharp analysis and voices that understand what's unfolding. Thanks for watching. Well, that's absolutely right. At the moment, there's lots of confusion in the market, I think. I mean, I'm amazed that equities haven't fallen more. They will fall more. It's as simple as that.
I'm amazed that bond yields haven't risen more quickly. I mean, people get terribly excited when uh the 10-year Treasury note yield rises by six basis points or something. Oh, come on, you know. This should be 100 basis points and then some in the short term. So, that's all a bit sort of odd. I think the markets are sort of if you like frozen into inaction in that sense.
And it So, these moves are not major at all yet. And of course, um the other sort of if you like gut reaction is that when things are not looking too good, what do you do as an investor? You go into the you know, you go into safety. Where's safety? The dollar. You go and buy the dollar. So, we've seen the trade weighted uh rise from I think it was what 96 and change up to uh currently what 98, 99, something like that.
Not huge, but you can see that it does reflect this gut this Keynesian if you like gut reaction or macroeconomic gut reaction. I think that's a better description. Which is completely wrong because what you're seeing is the value of credit being undermined. And what is the dollar? It's just credit. But of course, not many people realize that.
They will wake up to it. And I was I read a credible report this morning that major Chinese banks have basically run out of gold bars. So, you know, that I think is probably where the push is going to come from. People going into gold, I think the big stuff going into gold. That I think is the next move up and it leaves leads it will leave silver with it.
I mean, this is why I think that you know, the big banks members of the LBMA you know, the the active dealers in in on COMEX are trying to get the hell out of silver because they can see what's coming. The Shanghai Gold Exchange opened vaults in Hong Kong and also in Saudi Arabia, Riyadh, I I believe.
Um Whether it is actually open in Riyadh yet or what, I I honestly don't know, but it's certainly open and going in Hong Kong. And Hong Kong is also being built up again if you like as China's international financial center. Um The point about this is that with these vaults, you can deposit gold and get paid in yuan or deposit yuan and take out gold.
That's the you know, it's it's it's a gold for yuan exchange mechanism. All China needs to do at some stage is to fix the rate. And I believe they will do that at a time when the dollar is sliding and it is quite clear that there's a currency crisis in the West. It can then claim that it is just protecting its own interests.
It is not deliberately destabilizing the West. This is a very very important distinction. And um to my mind, that's basically what they're doing. Now, the next stage in this um is perhaps slightly more subtle. And that And that is when Trump came in and said that we're going to charge another I can't remember what it was, 100% or something tariffs.
This was last September. So, the Chinese turned around and said, "Okay, we're banning all exports of rare earths, full stop." Now, what we didn't know at the time and Trump backed down, you know, attacker. Trump always chickens out. Um what we didn't know at the time was that they also the Chinese also took a a decision effectively to ban silver exports.
Now, um I mean, all we know is that there's a new licensing silver export licensing regime which came in from January the 1st and it was going to last in 2026 and 2027. That's all we know. But it's quite clear that somewhere the Chinese took the decision that with suddenly America turning around and deciding that silver is a critical mineral and guess what, they haven't got any.
Um what China China was not going to supply silver to the West only to um find it ends up if you like providing a strategic silver stock pile from America. Well, I mean, there is an argument if you like that you could rotate out of um you know, gold into into commodities because the effect of the of um of um you know, the sort of the declining purchasing power of fiat currencies has been to lead to a massive underpricing of of commodities.
And in the article that you referred to, I put in one chart showing copper, which of course is the most important non-ferrous metal because of its its quantity and its role. And I mean, it's quite interesting just how divergent prices are. I mean, if you look in dollars, there's a huge great bull market in copper.
Look in gold, it's down at roughly I think it was about 16 or 20% of where the long-term value its long-term value should be. Which tells us that copper, measured in real money, the real price of copper if you like, is has is very very suppressed. So, we would expect that to correct. And so, if you if you can see that the price of copper measured in gold could go up three or four times.
Um And at the same time, gold is going up against the dollar. You know, [clears throat] in dollars, this is going to be you know, a fantastic bull market if you like, on paper anyway. Mark Faber explains that global markets experienced a long secular bull run in both stocks and bonds until around 2020, largely driven by persistent monetary easing and money creation.
Since then, bond prices have weakened while asset prices have generally remained elevated because of continued liquidity in the financial system. Although interest rates were raised between 2020 and 2024, they were never high enough relative to inflation or rising living costs to truly tighten financial conditions.
Faber believes that while bonds may not offer strong returns, they could still perform better than equities in 2026, potentially losing less value than stocks if markets decline. In his view, the powerful equity bull market likely peaked around late 2024 or early 2025, suggesting that investors may increasingly rotate towards safer alternatives such as bonds or high dividend stocks instead of the previously dominant Magnificent Seven technology leaders.
Faber also notes that gold has surged dramatically over the past 2 years and may now be due for a short-term correction, particularly as the US dollar appears relatively stable. However, he does not believe the long-term bull market in precious metals is over. With global government debt at extremely high levels, he argues that central banks cannot realistically pursue sustained monetary tightening without causing severe economic damage.
As a result, continued money printing is likely, which will steadily erode the purchasing power of paper currencies. Faber suggests that this long-term decline in currency value, combined with persistent government spending and war expenditures, will eventually push investors toward historically trusted stores of value such as gold and silver.
Let's get back to the interview. Well, as you know, we had the very long-term secular bull market in equities and in bonds until 2020. And since then, bonds have been declining. But, in general, asset prices have tended to go up because of continuous money printing and monetary ease. I mean, they increased interest rates since 2020 to 2024.
But, basically, afterwards, they cut rates, but they didn't cut rates from a very high level when you compare the bond yield to the rate of inflation, to the rate of cost of living increases. So, we had essentially interest rates that couldn't go down all that much. They went down somewhat on the short end, but on the long end, they didn't go that much down.
I'm reasonably positive for bonds because I think that in bonds this year, 2026, you will lose less money than in stocks. Not an endorsement to be long bonds, but to essentially own bonds as a as a substitute for something that may go down much more. And I feel that the bull market in assets, notably stocks, may have come to an end last year or in December 2024.
And then, we build the major top in 2025. From where we may go down for a while. And uh my sense is that possibly bonds and high-yielding stocks, high dividend stocks, may be a substitute for the Fang Seven stocks that and the Magnificent Seven stocks that were the leaders of the market in the last few years.
Yes, but you have to say that gold has gone up like a rocket over the last 2 years. And it became very overbought. And I think a correction is due. Moreover, many people bought gold as a substitute for the US dollar. But, it looks as if the US dollar is now stable or even appreciating against other currencies.
So, I think that gold may be in a correction phase. I don't think that the bull market is necessarily over because I don't believe that central banks around the world, given the very high level of government debt that exists in most countries, that central banks around the world can actually tighten monetary policies.
The damage would be very considerable. So, my sense is that they will continue to print money and that this will continue to diminish the purchasing power of money. In other words, your money depreciates in value as it has over the last 4 years. I mean, 40 years ago, you had a dollar, you went out, you could buy a much larger basket of goods and services than you can do that than you can do now.
So, money has lost its purchasing power. And if I look at the leadership in the Western world, both in Europe and especially now in the US, which is Mr. Trump, I think that under him, the purchasing power of paper money will diminish even at a more rapid pace than until now. In other words, the rapid depreciation of purchasing power of money.
And that means that people will opt for something that has throughout history been a stable currency. And that is gold and silver. It's possible, but a billion dollars a day for the US government is uh very common. I mean, the budget in the US is something like 7, 8 trillion dollars a year. So, they spend more than a billion dollars a day anyway.
And the war expenditures, that is true that it's a billion dollars a day or more. But, the Pentagon's budget is more than 700 billion dollars or they're talking now about a trillion dollars for 1 year. So, you you're right there, you have more than a billion dollars a day anyway. So, I don't think that it's all that disruptive.
But, for sure, the war is contributing to prices not going down as they should. These developments suggest that the long era of easy gains in traditional financial assets may be entering a more uncertain phase. Rising debt levels, persistent government spending, and the structural inability of central banks to maintain tight monetary policies point toward continued currency depreciation over time.
While equities could face deeper corrections and bonds may only offer limited protection, the broader trend of declining purchasing power is likely to push investors toward real assets. In that environment, commodities, especially gold and silver, may remain central to preserving value as confidence in fiat currencies gradually erode.
How might continued currency depreciation and rising government debt reshape investor demand for real assets such as gold, silver, and commodities over the next decade? So, stay tuned for clear, data-driven insights into the financial system. Don't forget to like and subscribe so you never miss our weekly updates. Thank you for your continued support, and we hope you enjoy the video.
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