저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
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하워드 막스는 시장 타이밍과 거시 예측보다 개별 기업의 본질가치에 집중하는 바텀업 투자를 강조한다. 현재 미국 주식 밸류에이션(Cape ~38-39)은 높은 편이라 공격성을 줄이고 약간 방어적으로 가야 하지만 전량 매도는 실수라고 본다. 현금 버퍼 유지를 권하며 시장 타이밍은 과거 데이터상 대부분 실패한다고 설명한다. 트럼프 정책 영향은 예측이 불가능하며 선거 기반 투자는 의미가 없다고 본다. 중국은 부동산 침체로 투자 불확실성이 크지만 소외된 자산에서 바겐세일 기회를 찾을 수 있다고 언급하며 JD, PDD, 알리바바, 넷이즈 보유를 소개한다. 장기적으로 투자를 지속하라는 메시지로 마무리한다.
다듬은 글
the world is chaotic the future is never clear I've made my whole career buying assets that other people consider uninvestable and when you do that you have a chance of getting a bargain Howard marks is one of the greatest investors of our time with a net worth of $2.2 billion built through his legendary firm oak tree Capital Management he is a master of value investing and recently he gave us a rare glimpse into his thoughts on the US economy Trump's impact on the stock market investing in China and a lot more so in this video let's check in on Howard Mark see change the great turning point for the US economy he's spoken about so much and how we should thus be investing in 2025 and Beyond the world is chaotic the future is never clear uh some people spend their time trying to figure out the future and pricing it I say it's unclear and we abstract from that to understand how's insights on the economy and future investing Outlook it's important to understand how he thinks as an investor unlike most fund managers that try to make money by knowing more about the economy than the other guy Howard is the complete compl opposite rarely giving economic news any attention at all this is called a bottom-up investing approach focusing on individual companies and focusing on what's knowable rather than trying to predict macro events we just try to look at individual companies and figure out which ones will grow which one will repay their loans and uh deal on that basis we call that bottom up not top down we're not Market timers we're not macro forecasters you could have said if you had a great foresight you could have said in in 2019 I think there's going to be a pandemic I'm going to get out in 2021 you could have said I think that Russia is going to invade Ukraine I'm going to get out in 22 you could have said I think Hamas will attack Israel I'm going to get out you would have been right about the events but it would have cost you a lot of money and that's always the problem with basing your investment decisions of macroeconomic factors it's impossible to know the Market's reaction for example Howard talks about three really big negative news stories in markets over the past 5 years Co Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Hamas attacking Israel which up all this conflict in the Middle East now here is the timeline of those events plotted on the S&P 500 price chart as Howard says if you were making investment decisions based on any of those three major Global events you would have lost out on some big returns so instead of guessing the future Howard's advice is simple analyze what you can control like the fundamentals of individual companies but okay that then brings us to the fundamentals like valuation sure we might not be making a call on the Mac but it's well understood that across the board stock prices are really really high the cape ratio which is like a big conservative PE ratio for the S&P 500 currently sits at 3839 so how does Howard think about this overvaluation in the market and how does this problem which has seen even in bottomup analysis influence his investing you talk about how it is about intrinsic value everything else is baloney but how do you get intrinsic value in a market that's overpriced I mean value ation are skyting especially on the S&P well you say it's overpriced uh I would say it's high priced overpriced is a judgment call you know you think about what you think something is worth you compare how it's selling Rel relative to that uh and then in my opinion that should determine whether or not you're aggressive or defensive so uh I think we would agree that uh us stock valuations for example are on the high side uh relative to history that would uh tell me to be a little less aggressive than usual a little more defensive but not necessarily to get out so Howard agre most stocks are expensive out there but that doesn't mean you should throw in the towel log into your stock broker and just sell your portfolio in Howard's view it simply means you should adjust your portfolio and your philosophy to being a little bit more defensive something that I've been doing recently with my own portfolio on stake also I do just want to give you guys a quick update on my partnership with stake because I have had a few questions um stake are Australia's third Lar share trading platform but no they are not the state gambling site so to those saying that I sold my soul to a gambling company that is not the case at all the stake I'm working with is a highly reputable investing platform here in Australia I've been using them for the past 6 years they're good their big mission has always been about making the US markets easier to access for Aussies and Kiwis now since then they've also expanded into ASX trading as well so if you are from Australia or New Zealand and you're in need of a better share trading platform if you sign up to stake using my referral code code which is new money you'll actually receive $10 of free trading credit for funding a new Australian account and a free US Stock when you fund a new Wall Street account if you're looking to buy American stocks like apple or Tesla Etc and another thing if you already have a brokerage account if you transfer an Aussie portfolio larger than $1,000 across to stake you'll get $0 ASX brokerage for 12 months so you can transfer from any existing platform in Australia and you'll also keep your hin your holder identification number so it's a pretty good deal sweetener and again I just want to say a big thank you to stake for being awesome and agreeing to be long-term supporters of the channel they're actually the first company to ever reach out to support my channel back when I had absolutely no subscribers uh the referral link will be in the description or the pinned comment and don't forget that code new money when you sign up but back to Howard marks and how to adjust your investing approach in the overvalued market and as he says it's not about giving up rather just adjusting to be slightly more defensive but what does this mean in practice well for one it means checking in with your portfolio to ensure you're not really over exposed to an overvalued stock or an overvalued sector so making sure you've got some level of diversification and protection against say a big correction in US tech and then the other defensive strategy that Howard goes on to talk about is to have a little bit of a cash buffer to prepare yourself for any eventuality it's what he's doing it's what Buffett's doing it's what I'm doing because here's the thing about stock markets yes we know that the market can stay irrational for an extremely long time but the way markets work is they go through through Cycles cycles of excitement and overoptimism and then they swing back down through fear and pessimism but given time they'll always at some point revert to where they ought to be if they're running hot eventually the earnings lift to justify the price or the market Falls to correct and on the other end of the slope in recessions and depressions the earnings will either fall to justify the low valuations or the prices will pick back up once investors realize that things aren't that bad somewhere in the middle of those swings is where the market price ought to be and the market will eventually get back there so if the market is up super high it pays to have some levels of cash on the sidelines in preparation for that correction whereas you know during the GFC or during the bursting of the tech bubble or in the depths of the Great Depression you want to have all of your money in the market because you want to be fully invested to maximize the opposite Trend the swing back up to where things ought to be so there's no predictions that the market is going to crash next Tuesday as how it says it's just about adjusting your approach between more aggressive or more defensive based on the market conditions you're currently presented with you know it's just a matter of calibrating in my opinion your behavior between aggressiveness and defensiveness when things are a little high as they are a little more defensive than usual but this notion of uh risk on risk off in or out buy or sell that's too black and white it's not fitting for the world we live in you know getting out uh is is really a big step most most of the time in my 55 years in this business has been been a mistake so if you've been seeing the news stories of YouTube videos the podcast telling you to sell now please ignore them and this is overwhelmingly backed up with data shout out to the visual capitalist for this one this is a chart showing the value of $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 but what then happens if you miss the 10 best days or the 20 best days and so on now this is across a 20e period from January 2003 until December 2022 and as you can see if you stay invested your 10 , would have turned into 64844 but if you miss the best 10 days your portfolio drops by 35 Grand down to just $27,000 and as you can see you can only miss the best 30 something days before you actually end up with less than what you started with and a quirky stat they've included here in 2020 the second best day happened immediately after the second worst day so if you think you can see the up and down Trends in the market think again not only do we never know what's going to happen in the bigger world but we also don't know how the Market's going to react and so to be dogmatic and to say it's high I'm getting out is a mistake and with that context under our belt surrounding how Marx views the current investing landscape I also wanted to touch on two big issues that were covered in this interview and the first is Howard Mark's opinion as to how Donald Trump's presidency will impact markets this is the first time I've seen Howard speaks since the results of the election and this is what he had to say you talk about about how it's hard to do it on a short-term basis okay let's take a longer term basis four years the Trump Administration how are you looking at that how might that impact Market sentiment and how this plays out again these things are very hard number one what's going to happen nobody knows his appointments are not firm they have yet to be confirmed his policies are not known what is he going to do nobody really knows what he's going to do number two what else will be going on in the world he's not the only show it it's complicated number three how will the market react to all these things number four uh the president's influence on most things is usually quite limited number five as I said before our economy is in good shape so in general things are going well in the United States and or better than most other places and that's why things are high in the United States the situation is generally good but you're paying a lot for it we'd like to get a good situation at a bargain price it's rarely the case I don't think things are crazy high now and I don't think it's time to get out by now nothing Howard has said should come as a surprise and he's right you know so many investors will try and make stock market bets based on elections or policies but honestly it is a Fool's errand you can lump it in with macroeconomic data it's interesting but it shouldn't drive your investment decisions and just to prove how irrelevant it is take a look at this stock returns under Democrat and Republican presidencies since the S&P 500's Inception are almost identical Howard also touched on the resilience of the US economy which we've seen play out even with Rising interest rates you know employment figures and output remain strong but as he noted that resilience is part of why valuations are so high and that brings us to the other big topic that Howard was asked about which was China now Marx holds positions in companies like jd.com pinu Ojo Alibaba and net e and these stocks face the opposite problem they've been beaten down along with China's economy in recent years and some see this as a rare opportunity While others are calling it a value trap so with recent stimulus measures announced how does Howard Marx approach this controversial topic you know I I mentioned before that the US situation is doing well but high priced the Chinese situation has fundamental questions but it's bargain priced which is better you know you can't it's all investing it's a matter of relative choices but with the risk that it's nent recovery might be jeopardized by Trump's policies and further tariffs on on economy well if you if you can tell me what Trump's really going to do as opposed to his rhetoric uh and and and uh if you can tell me whether Trump's rhetoric is going to induce behavior on China's part that makes Trump back off from his rhetoric then I'll I may know the answer but nobody can do that but as we know the long-term performance of Chinese stocks won't be from tariffs or a trade war with the us while the reporter zeroed in on the newsworthy topic of the day of course the bigger problem with Chinese stocks is that their recovery is going to depend heavily on whether or not China can turn its own economy around and the answer obviously lies somewhere in its property sector which has been a key driver of economic growth for decades but now as we know faces significant challenges declining house prices stored projects developers going bankrupt but as we're about to hear if China can stabilize and reignite its property Market as they're now trying to do with this large stimulus the hope is that it could fire up its economy as a whole and that's really the focal point of Howard's perspective Ive on long-term investing in China anytime you have a a an amount of building which is highly stimulated by by the availability of capital then you have to go through a period of adjustment in which the buildings that have been built are absorbed you have to grow into that space that doesn't happen over night and it doesn't happen because the government uh turns a policy lever the question is not whether they have to do it the question is will it bottom out will they stop adding excessively to the property stock and uh will they put in place policies designed to create the absorption my bias is that they will you know uh many people in the investment Community describe China as uninvestable to me that word is music to my ears I've made my whole career buying assets that other people consider uninvestable and when you do that you have a chance of getting a bargain so I think that clearly China is on the on the pile of things that people feel ill about and it's on that pile that you find the bargain that doesn't mean that you should buy everything on the pile but that's where you look for the cast offs and the bargains and it's that philosophy that's led him to make those four Investments I touched on before JD pinu oo Alibaba and net e uh even just a simple look at the PE ratios of these businesses show that they're quite a bit less expensive than their us counterparts with all values under 20 sure it's definitely not for everyone and Howard himself acknowledges that there are risks there but as he noted being a contrarian is one of the core reasons he's built such a successful investing career and it's not something he's afraid to do so there how's thoughts as to investing across the next year um definitely have to balance optimism and caution stay focused on intrinsic value over noise be a contrarian where it makes sense to do so uh but I think the most important message was just to stay the course don't get sucked into short-term thinking investing in the short run is very uncertain and nobody should think they really uh know what's coming and most people uh should take a an almost passive approach the idea is it's good to invest it's good to invest in the United States it's good to invest overtime and it's bad to try to Mastermind it in the short run with get in get out now if everybody gets gives up on getting on getting in and getting out you may lose a few viewers uh but the point is investing is a good thing do it early do it a lot so that you can build the nest EG don't screw it up but with that said guys please leave a like on the video If you enjoyed it and if you're an oiwi be sure to check out steak using the links in the description and the pin comment I would really really appreciate it but with that said guys thanks very much for watching and I'll see you all in the next one
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