'Markets Are Tired From Volatility & Washington's Comments On Trade Issue' | Ed Yardeni On Markets!

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미국의 관세 관련 발언이 줄며 시장에 긍정적. 7월 1일 90일 유예 종료 전까지 여러 국가와 무역 프레임워크 합의 기대. 미중 협상은 진전이 더디고 고통이 더 있을 수 있으나 점진적 타협 전망. 달러는 DXY가 유로 비중이 커서 약세가 유로 강세 반영, 연준 무역가중 기준 약 5% 하락에 그쳐 큰 의미 없음. 통화보다 무역이 신흥국 핵심 변수이며 인도가 미국과 최적 거래를 얻을 가능성.

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※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. But one of the big factors apart from reliance industry is also going to be what happens globally. How global markets are poised and uh the commentary coming in day in and day out. Let's decode all of that with Ed Yadini. Uh very good morning to you uh Y and good evening to you. Thank you so much for joining us Yadini.

02. I wanted to understand what's your view on the back and forth uh commentary coming in from uh Donald Trump because uh this weekend I think it's been pretty good. We've not got any uh sharp comments from him. Yeah. Any uh day or weekend without the president commenting on tariffs is likely to be a good day for the markets when when when they're trading.

03. Uh and look, I I think we're all getting a little bit uh tired and maybe jaded about the the volatility and the the comments coming out of out of Washington. I think there's been a movement in a more dovish direction on the whole trade issue. I think the the markets uh perceive that by July 1st which is the end of the 90day postponement period you know liberation day was April 2nd and uh then on April 9th uh we were liberated from liberation day for 90 days and I think by then there'll be lots of pieces of paper signed by various countries with the United States coming up with frameworks for improving trade relations and I think that'll help a lot.

04. I don't quite know that we're going to make as much progress on on China. There may be more pain in that area. And I guess the two countries want to see who can take the pain the most and and blink first. Uh but I think even there we'll that there's some accommodation maybe um product by product. Uh yet what happens if China does not blink?

05. I mean what happens? Well, I I I think the United States will blink. I think the United States has already blinked. Uh the uh the president uh has said that numerous times that uh he uh welcomes discussions with China. He's even said that there have been discussions with China. Um although the Chinese say there haven't been any discussions whatsoever.

06. Th this is a very strange situation uh where usually when you have a negotiation, you got two people in the room uh arguing and shouting with each other and finally coming up with a deal and coming out of the room smiling like everything's fine. In the current situation, we have Trump going into the room by himself and coming out every now and then and telling us that things will be okay.

07. So I think we have to kind of uh conclude that it's in both countries interests to come up with some accommodation and so I think it'll be incremental but um I think clearly there will be some some pain in the relationship uh the trade relationship between the United States and China. So yet for our viewers who is are now interested Swami sir good morning.

08. I'm just coming to you in a second but I've got Adini so I'm going to just throw in a question to him. Um yet I've got you know one of the most senior journalists of India who would be joining us in a second from now. Uh if you're free I would request you to perhaps stay back with that conversation but Swami sir I'm just going to ask yet one question and then just coming right back to you.

09. So yeah for emerging market investors and for our viewers who invest in India should they say dollar has peaked America is going to slow down and even though the quarter gone by numbers were not great in coming quarters the slowdown would be visible. So, one should buy emerging market equities. I'm I'm not bearish on the dollar.

10. I mean, it's it's gone down about 10% based on the Dixie, the DXY index, but the DXY index is very heavily weighted towards the euro. So, the weakness in the dollar is basically reflecting the strength of the euro. And I don't know what the excitement is about uh running into into the euro. I mean, obviously stocks are are cheaper there, and maybe that's part of the story there.

11. Uh but uh on a trade weighted basis as calculated by the Fed, the dollar is down about 5%. No big deal really. Um I I don't think currency is the going to be the big issue for emerging markets. I think it is going to be trade and I think India stands out as probably likely the the biggest emerging market to probably get the be best deal uh with the United States for both countries. All right. .