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hey everyone kevin here multiple updates we're going to do a very quick and brief update regarding the fed minutes what to expect but more importantly we're going to talk about what i've learned from some earnings reports and i think they're quite fascinating so first fed minutes could be totally nothing could be a nothing burger the last few minutes i'd say like the last two minutes that we've gotten absolutely nothing the minutes that we got from december on january 5th complete disaster really started tanking uh the market even more in january so yeah uh you could end up having a very bad earning or very bad day after and i would expect low volumes to start the day and then things to uh uh you know trading to actually take place after these minutes come out and uh for people to relax a little bit hopefully because what are we looking for we're looking for a fed that's going to tell us all right look we're already seeing demand start to moderate that's what they want to do they want to see demand moderate and uh we're hoping that they give us some kind of guidance on what their terminal target will be for that fed funds rate the market is pricing in 2.75 to three and we talked about this yesterday that boss stick started talking two and a half and the market's like oh crap you guys are gonna pause earlier than expected goldman sachs put out a note going that's basically what the market needs right now in order to really have a chance of actually going up is basically a softer fed right and so we're going to be looking at uh at core what what is the fed's expectation on core inflation are they seeing any meaningful signs yet so far they've been saying yeah we're seeing some signs but not consistent enough yet so we'll see if the minutes give us any a color i do want to talk about some of these earnings so ryanair i thought this was really interesting they're the low-cost carrier in europe which is actually where i am right now i'm in germany and they say that quote it seems evident we are going to have an economic downturn if not a recession they say the recovery is fragile and that people will ultimately end up moving into more price sensitive uh companies when they spend money so kind of like they made this analogy of shopping at ikea or flying on ryanair cheaper discounted this makes sense but i do think it was very interesting that they said it seems evident that we're going to have an economic downturn that could be because of europe which we expect europe's going to have a harder time than america toast on the other hand and i thought this was really interesting toast says that dining in at restaurants is a 46 in q1 uh compared to q1 of 2021 and they see that uh demand is high restaurants still have pricing power and they quote don't see any evidence of a slowdown or material risk on that front yet so well that's a good sign lowe's talked about how when home values are going up people see spending on their home for home improvement or remodeling as a quote investment not an expense but this was also very interesting for the housing market they believe that excess demand is somewhere between 1.5 to 2 million homes that represents about 21 to 28 uh of of the amount of homes that we sell they believe that's how much excess demand there is for for extra homes right now what's really interesting about that is it kind of gives us a little bit of guide well if interest rates uh you know have gone up three percent and that stops about 30 purchasing power is it possible that real estate could just end the year flat it's possible but lows could also be wrong and other people could also pay and excel like if investors start panic selling well then not only have you now absorbed the excess demand but now you potentially end up having over inventory in real estate right so obviously with the home builder or the home numbers miss that we had yesterday you started seeing homebuilder stocks fall and that's not a surprise lowe's did notice a slowdown in sales in april but they blamed the weather as an excuse for that john deere sees no improvement in freight which is important for inflation until next year although kind of i'm wondering if they're not seeing an improvement because they're john deere and they ship massive things uh so i think that's kind of interesting there's also an interesting report this doesn't matter so terribly much but it's just kind of funny that california has the world's two worst ports long beach and the port of los angeles that and it's like no surprise to me that california taxes people in their state the most yet they have horrible infrastructure and can't get their act together it's quite sad uh x-ping motors they said they had a massive slowdown in april much like tesla obviously uh because of the lockdowns but they are already seeing a robust and uh robust rebound and that momentum is strong already for may and getting those those orders coming back so that's potentially something nice to hear for tesla although they do still complain about the chip shortage and what's fascinating about the chip shortages they gave a little bit of color they're like look we have like 5 000 chips in every single car uh and it's not the big chips that matter it's all of the tiny little cheap ones that are like pennies for a chip those are the ones that we're struggling getting and i thought that was really interesting because i got to think to myself like yeah i mean they're probably like five chips just for me to push a button and like roll the window down you know for a window and then you know obviously multiply that by all the functions of a vehicle anyway best buy talked about how consumer electronics the consumer electronics industry is in decline but not to worry because we've been planning for it and they don't see a full-blown recession but they definitely see a decline obviously we saw the snap disaster and the line that really ended up killing trade desk was them going we believe platforms more exposed to brand advertising are likely experiencing a greater impact overall so that really hurt uh canadians are really unhappy according to a poll 41 of canadians have worse finances today than a year ago and 28 of canadians believe their finances will continue to get worse that's not good uh job market starting to see some layoffs take up this is kind of expected when we expect demand to pull down and the schwab ceo he bought the dip on his own stock this stock's down 11 uh then one thing that i did want to end on obviously in addition to suggesting you should check out because obviously you should uh remember that coupon expires at the end of the month but get this many stocks with the highest dividend yields in the s p 500 have been soaring past the broader market broader markets down like 20 18 though up 12 this year and uh it seems like the s p 500 high dividend index is up 2.8 so far in 2022. anyway i gotta go now see ya
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