저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
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3월 캐시 우드 포트폴리오 중 최애 종목으로 로블록스(Roblox)를 꼽는 영상이다. 로블록스는 팬데믹 수혜 후 매출 성장률이 둔화(2021년 120%대 → 최근 분기 1.8%)했지만 매출이 음(-)으로 꺾이지 않고 유지된 점을 긍정적으로 평가한다. 매출·성장 흐름: 팬데믹 중 급성장 후 재개방으로 성장률이 80%→40%→1.8%로 둔화했으나, 일일 활성 사용자(DAU)와 참여도는 팬데믹 고점 위에서 유지·증가 중이라고 설명한다. 수익성 및 회계 특수성: 영업이익률은 최근 분기 -41.52%로 악화됐다. 로블록스는 Robux 충전금을 24개월에 걸쳐 나눠 매출로 인식하므로 영업이익률 해석에 주의가 필요하다고 언급한다. 현금흐름: 주식보상비용이 매출의 29.27%로 증가 추세이나 비현금성 비용이다. 12개월 영업현금흐름은 팬데믹 고점(7.2억 달러)에서 약 50% 감소한 약 3.69억 달러로 여전히 양(+)이다. 잉여현금흐름은 감소 추세이며 최근 12개월 마진은 16.6%다. 사업모델: 개발자에게 선지급하지 않고 게임 수익의 일정 비율만 나눠주는 구조라 히트작만 비용이 발생해 리스크가 낮다고 평가한다. 넷플릭스와 대비되는 장점으로 제시한다. 발언자 본인은 로블록스 주식을 보유 중이며, 통상 캐시 우드식 비수익 성장주는 보유하지 않고 이익·현금흐름 중심 투자를 선호한다고 밝힌다. 영상은 2023년 2월 기준 발언이다. 언급된 종목 및 방향: 로블록스 긍정(보유), 테슬라·쇼피파이·코인베이스·트윌리오·드래프트킹스는 최애로 꼽지 않음(언급만).
다듬은 글
what's my favorite Kathy Woodstock to buy in March I'm gonna answer that question in this video I'm also going to support why it's my favorite right what I like about the stock now it might not be what you like about it but I'm gonna highlight the reasons that attracts me to this stock so let's go through Kathy Woods portfolio and I will highlight which one is my favorite of her stocks to buy in March it's not Tesla it's not Tesla I know some of you may have been thinking Tesla is the top one to buy but I am not saying that and it's not Shopify it's not coinbase it's not twilio it's not DraftKings now you can see she's attracted to a lot of these Innovative growth stocks and now we've reached my favorite Kathy Woodstock to buy in March which is Roblox Roblox the metaverse Pioneer that has attracted over 50 million daily active users to its platform so Roblox is my favorite Kathy Woodstock to buy in March now let me support that with why I like Roblox stock so if we were to look at a chart of Roblox Revenue growth over the last three years you can see that it was a prime beneficiary of the pandemic look at this growth over 120 percent year-over-year Revenue growth in uh the March quarter of 2021 now it's sustained this elevated level of growth over 120 percent again in July of 2021 but it started to decrease as economies reopen right uh 80 Revenue growth in January of 2022 40 in March of 2022 less than 40 in July and then in its most recent quarter just 1.8 percent Revenue growth uh in in its recent quarter however however I will say that I was impressed that the company's Revenue has remained at elevated levels and built on top of that so what I was fearing with Roblox was that okay it surged with the revenue growth right it exploded during the pandemic and then when economies reopened I was concerned that Revenue would turn negative right it would lose all of that Revenue all of those customers that it attracted during the pandemic it would lose all of them and then turn negative right it would just reverse those gains but that hasn't happened right all that's happened is that it stopped growing at those elevated rates it just said okay we exploded now we're kind of just maintaining right sustaining at this high level which which I was attracted to I like that they didn't lose all those customers just as economies reopened they stuck with the platform right they tried out Roblox during the pandemic and they stuck with it they're still there right they're actually building uh daily active users on top of where they were uh during the heights of the pandemics or they're adding daily active users it's just those daily active users are not spending as much time or as much money on the platform which is to be understood right nobody thought that they would be as um popular when economies reopen but I was relieved to see that Revenue hasn't turned negative the next metric that I will show you is the operating profit margin over the trailing 12 months now we saw growth in this metric even though it was negative it was proving that it was making progress towards profitability until after the July quarter when it turned even worse to negative 41.52 percent but Roblox is one of those companies where I kind of look at the operating profit margin with a bit of an asterisk just because of the unique way that Roblox um runs its accounting so let me let me explain that how let me explain what I mean by that so if you're not aware Roblox is free to join right people can join roblox's platform for free they don't have to put any money and they can play the games they can interact with their friends all of that stuff right but if you want to experience some of the premium activities on the Roblox platform you have to deposit money and buy Robux that's where you have to deposit money and buy Robux okay but when customers deposit money to buy Robux let's say you deposit a hundred dollars Roblox does not account for that as 100 in Revenue that's what I mean by the unique accounting of Roblox so what it does is it takes that 100 and spreads it out over 24 months and counts it as Revenue over 24 months so if you deposit a hundred dollars on Roblox it's going to count only like five dollars in Revenue each month over the next 24 months okay so that's why I say it's a little bit murky in terms of looking at its operating profits and and revenue right so I look at a few different metrics with Roblox that gives me uh more insight into what's going on into the company and I mentioned a couple of those daily active users I look at engagement both of which have been building on top of the elevated levels in uh before the outbreak and then another interesting thing about Roblox is it pays a massive amount of its expenses in stock based compensation and it's been rising so this is roblox's stock based compensation 29.27 of revenues in its most recent quarterly quarter and that's been rising the interesting thing about stock based compensation is that it's a non-cash expense it's not cash so the company pays their employees their their people in stock grants or stock options and this it needs to account for but it doesn't pay cash out okay so that's the interesting thing it doesn't it's not a cash expense and what that has allowed is Roblox to operate at positive cash flow from operations you see here trailing 12-month cash flow from operations it peaked that over at 720 million during the height of the pandemic and that's come down by about 50 percent it's at about 369 million in its most recent trading 12 months but it nevertheless it's positive it's positive and then looking at its cash flow to sales cash flow from operations to sales over the trailing 12 months also positive it has been declining that's understandable you're not expecting Roblox to do as well as it did during the heights of the pandemic and over the trailing 12 months at 16.6 percent here's another interesting thing I'll point out about Roblox so Roblox platform it doesn't pay developers to create the games on the platform until those games prove to be valuable to users let me explain that further so Roblox tells developers hey you guys make the games put it on our platform we're not going to pay you we're not going to promise to pay you anything what we'll give you is a percentage of the revenues that those games generate so if you develop a hit game you're going to make a lot of money because you're going to get a percentage of the revenues that game generates but if you develop a flop you're not going to get any money at all and on top of that Roblox doesn't pay the developers until after the games start earning Revenue right so developers are continuously creating games creating uh engaging activities for the users on Roblox attracting users and Roblox is not paying these developers unless they turn out hits right so in that way it's not as risky right it's not spending all of this money paying developers having them on their salary and with the risk that they're not going to develop any hits right so they they've kind of done that and I I like that about Roblox the business model I like that they've put it in they've kind of outsourced that game development and the way they've structured the pay ensures that they only pay for things that are valuable to the users so Roblox is not wasting any money on content or games that really suck right it's kind of in my view it's kind of like the opposite of Netflix Netflix pays for all of this content some of it turned out to be really big hits some of it turned out to be flops doesn't matter Roblox uh Netflix has to pay for all of it Roblox gets the benefit of only paying for the items that become hits and not paying for the ones that are not hits and so I kind of like that business model that's one of the things that's attracted me to Roblox is it the way it's structured its business in that pays a lot of stock based compensation so it's not money out of pocket up front and then the way it outsources development of the hit games so these are unique little aspects of Roblox business that has attracted me to it I own Roblox stock and I typically don't own any of the type of stocks that Kathy Wood owns right I'm not very much of an uh Innovative stock investor I tend to look at Prof I tend to Value profits and cash flow and earnings a lot more than most investors do and most of Kathy Wood stocks are you know unprofitable growth stocks with really expensive valuations which is not my kind of style I'm more in in the camp of looking at profits looking at cash flow and which is a bit surprising that I would be attracted to Roblox but it's because Roblox has those unique aspects of the business that I talked about earlier all right so that's all I've got for this video if you liked this uh video I'm gonna link to this video up here that's going to talk about the 20 stocks that are the best stocks for 2023 I'm also going to link to another video up here about more Kathy Wood stocks so there might be flipped like this I'm not sure but go ahead and click those and I'll see you over there
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