저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 빌 애크먼이 포트폴리오 최대 비중(23.53%)으로 보유한 로우스(Lowe's)의 펀더멘털이 개선되고 있어 그의 투자 논리가 타당하다는 분석. [매출] 팬데믹 중 홈임프루브먼트 수요로 분기 매출 성장률이 24% 이상 급등. 장기적으로 그 수준을 기대하기는 어렵지만, 경영진이 급격한 수요 변동을 잘 관리했다고 평가. [경영 대응 비교] 펠로톤은 과잉 설비투자로 어려움을 겪었고, 아마존도 과잉 투자로 수익성이 악화됨. 반면 로우스는 이런 상황을 잘 다뤄 경영진 신뢰도가 높다고 봄. [영업이익률] 2014년 이전 7.5% 미만에서 최근 12개월 10.74%로 상승 추세. 변동은 있었지만 전반적으로 효율성이 개선됨. [EPS] 2013년 약 2달러에서 최근 12개월 10.21달러로 크게 증가. 팬데믹 이전에도 꾸준히 성장. [영업현금흐름/매출] 2014년 이전 8% 미만에서 최근 12개월 9.45%로 개선. 공급망 대응으로 재고를 선구매해 현금흐름이 실제보다 나쁘게 보이는 역풍이 있었음에도 개선됨. 비부패성 상품이라 재고 위험은 낮다고 설명. [밸류에이션] P/E 19.69배로 최근 10년 중 하단 수준. 2018년 이전에는 이 가격대에서 매수할 기회가 거의 없었음. [종합] 매출·이익·현금흐름 개선과 경영 역량, 낮은 밸류에이션이 맞물려 애크먼의 로우스 보유를 설명할 수 있다는 결론. 로우스 외 종목에 대한 가격 방향 언급은 없음.
다듬은 글
23.53 percent of billionaire investor Bill ackman's portfolio is in this one stock lows so I wanted to take a deeper dive into this one stock and try and understand what billionaire investor Bill Ackman really likes about this stock what's attracting him to this one investment over you know all of the other choices that he might have in the market today this is the one stock that he's choosing to put hit the the highest share of his portfolio of investments in so let's get into this I'm going to look at um five different metrics for lows and starting with Revenue growth I wanted to look at Lowe's Revenue growth over the last several years and look at how it's been doing and what I notice here is this peak during the pandemic of course we're all aware that I think we're all aware that Home Improvement was an incredibly popular Pastime during the pandemic and revenue surged for Home Improvement retailers like Lowe's to a level over 24 percent in a few quarters now uh that's not something you should expect from Lowe's and I'm sure that Bill Ackman doesn't expect this kind of growth from Lowe's over the long term but it was just something that was nice to see that the company surged like this and that management demonstrated it was able to run the business even with this kind of surge in sales right a lot of other companies that it's experience this big up and down because of the pandemic they didn't handle it well at all they didn't handle it well at all and I can name a few examples uh two of which I'll say Pat Peloton did an absolutely terrible job right they over invested capacity they got too excited with the sales growth thinking that that was going to be long lasting right and just they just put poured in money into the business preparing for that and that didn't end up happening and when sales fell after the pandemic the business is in all kinds of trouble right now another one is Amazon right when sales exploded the company couldn't really handle that explosion and it had to make a choice to significantly invest in capacity and they kind of didn't know at what rate to invest in capacity right and so they chose to say hey let's over invest rather than under invest and now all of those over Investments are weighing down profitability for the company right so just two examples there of companies that experience the Boom in sales and didn't handle it well at all and lows it was the opposite of that and I think that attracted Bill Ackman thinking okay this is a good management team it knows how to handle challenging situations in the business that is on that is ultimately going to happen again right businesses go through something unusual uh quite usually right something unusual happens usually and so this is something that I'm sure Bill Ackman noticed and said okay I like the way this team handled it and I'm confident in going with them as an investment the next thing I wanted to look at is Lowe's operating margin over the trailing 12 months and what impressed me is not just the overall number 10.74 for a brick and mortar retailer is impressive No Doubt but what also impressed me is the upward Trend like in before 2014 it's operating profit margin was less than seven and a half percent and that's just moved upward like yesterday it did experience fluctuations but if we just look at the the trend line it's it's moving upward from less than seven and a half percent to 10.74 percent in the trailing 12 months so the company's getting better at what it does it's learning its business better it's becoming more effective more efficient and that is undoubtedly another reason that attracted Bill Ackman to this stock it's getting better at what it does the next metric I wanted to look at is earnings per share over to trailing 12 months I wanted to look at how lows has been increasing its earnings per share over the years or if it has been and again another impressive metric here from Lowe's look at the earnings per share growth absolutely explosive even if we even if you ignore the time after the pandemic you could still see a very healthy upward trajectory there so it's not just exclusively because of the pandemic now the pandemic did help right that it did ex increase earnings per share explosively but even before that the company was doing a nice job increasing its earnings per share from let's say two dollars of earnings per share in 2013 all the way up to ten dollars and 21 cents in the trailing 12 months another metric I wanted to look at is the cash flow from operations to sales over to trailing 12 months I wanted to see how good Lowe's was at turning its sales into cash flow from operations this is a popular metric that I know investment managers pay attention to so I I have a feeling that Bill Ackman could be paying attention to this metric as well and looking at this metric also again upward movement in the metric from less than eight percent before 2014 up to 9.45 in the trailing 12 months and that's even with an inventory challenge that's built into this valuation now lows because of supply chain shortages one of the ways Lowe's dealt with it was to bring on a lot more inventory to make sure that its shelves were stocked because consumer demand was soaring and the items that it sells are non-perishable in nature right things that Lowe's sells doesn't really go bad it's not like groceries or it's not like clothing where it could go out of style and then they would need to uh discount prices in order to get rid of this inventory right it didn't have that kind of inventory risk so it just decided to front load its inventory purchases and that is a use of cash flow and so that's causing cash flow from operations to look worse than it actually is but still even considering that headwind it's cash flow from operations has improved over the years and finally I wanted to look at the valuation because investment managers don't just look at the performance of a company they also look at the price they have to pay right you you it could be the best stock in the world it could be the best company in the world but if it's trading so expensively there is little return available for you to get in that investment right you got to look at the the valuation you got to look at the value you're getting for the money that you're paying and in this metric look at the p e ratio of lows here at 19.69 it's at the lower end of its valuation over the last 10 years especially if you look at the time before the pandemic before 2020 let's look at 20 let's look at 2018 and and before you hardly had an opportunity to buy lows at this valuation it was barely ever below this valuation at maybe one or two brief moments at other times it was more expensive so you have a company that's showing Market improvements in earnings per share in operating profits and cash flow from operations and revenue all improving showing uh management that that showed skill in merchandising the business during difficult times while it's trading at a price that's at the lower end of the valuation over the last 10 years it makes sense though it makes sense why Bill Ackman is attracted to this stock and holds it as one of his top Holdings so I hope that provided some insight in why Bill billionaire investor Bill Ackman is holding Lowe's stock as one of his highest Holdings and hope you see me again
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