저자: SmartXCapital채널운영자 · 외국인
요약 보기
레이 달리오의 4대 힘(성장·인플레이션·할인율·위험프리미엄)으로 시장을 분석. 성장 둔화, 인플레이션 고점 유지, 금리 인상 가능성, 위험프리미엄 최저 수준을 근거로 현재 시장이 고점 후기 국면이라 주장. 대응으로 현금·단기채·금 비중 확대와 고품질 방어주(헬스케어·실물자산·유틸리티·에너지) 보유를 제시하고, 2029~2030년경 저점 매수 구간을 기다리라고 함. 특정 기업 매수 추천은 없음.
다듬은 글
So, a few weeks ago, I was evaluating the various stocks I currently own and looking at new ones that seemed more attractive to me in the market. I used the four forces that Ray Dalio always applies to his investment portfolio. And for those who don't know, Ray Dalio is the owner of the most successful and largest hedge fund in history.
In examining these four forces, I found that three of them actually warned me to stay away from the market. So I thought it would be worth creating this video to share with you what these powers are. In this video, I will cover three main points. First, the four forces that determine the real value of any asset on Earth.
Second, I will apply these four forces to what is happening in the market right now. Third, I'll show you exactly how I'm positioning myself today because of this: what I'm holding, what I'm avoiding, and what I plan to buy. Let's get started. Quick note: I am not a financial advisor. Everything I share here today is just my personal opinion for educational and entertainment purposes.
Always do your own research before investing. Point one, mechanism. I want to share with you something we were never taught: every asset we own— stocks, bonds, gold, or your house— is fundamentally just one. This is a claim to receive money in the future. And the price of this demand comes down to four basic forces.
These are the same four forces that Ray Dalio has used to evaluate the markets for decades, earning over $55 billion for his investors. The first force is growth, which focuses on whether the economy is earning more or less. When the economy earns more, companies earn more profits, and so do your stocks, right?
It's all profits up. The second force is inflation. Does money buy more or less? Inflation works in the other direction . Inflation reduces your company's profits. It reduces the real value of every future dollar these companies will pay you. So, high inflation pulls real prices down. The third force is the discount rate.
Essentially, it is a percentage rate used to value today's stocks based on the future. When it rises, each future dollar is worth less today, and prices fall with it. I'll come back to this point in just a second. And force four is the risk premium, the additional reward you demand for taking risk instead of holding money in cash.
Now let's talk about shutter speed. When investors feel afraid, they don't want to pay and they don't rush to buy. Therefore, they demand a much lower price to take on the risk and increase their margin of safety. So, all value estimates are compressed and falling as a result. So, in a simplified version of these four forces: growth lifts your portfolio, while the other three, when growing together, destroy it.
Of these four, the most important is the discount rate . And Warren Buffett said it best. Interest rates affect asset prices the same way gravity affects everything else. When interest rates are low, prices soar higher and higher. And when rates rise , prices usually fall because borrowing becomes more expensive.
And you saw it in real time in 2022. As the discount rate rose , the first to suffer were not boring profitable companies, but “ dream stocks,” loss-making technology stocks, “ hyped” cryptocurrencies, and assets priced based on cash flows expected perhaps a century from now. Some of them fell by 70-80%, while the broader market fell significantly less.
The same thing happened when the dot-com bubble burst in 2000. The scenario repeats itself every time the discount rate actually increases. So, you don't need to predict the next news headlines. You just need to know which direction these four forces are pointing . Point two: analysis of the situation or how I see the action of these four forces today.
The first force is growth. Let me show you what's really slowing down, and it's massive. First, if you look at US GDP growth over the past few years, the overall trend has been downward, reflecting a slowdown in the real productive economy, while the financial market, particularly the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, have been rising.
And the engine of the entire economy— consumer spending—is also slowing down . This is partly a result of the rising cost of living and the fact that profits flow to the owners of assets and investments—that is, the rich people—while the poor are left behind, and money flows into the financial sector rather than into the real productive economy.
Even real estate, on which this entire cycle is built, has begun to slow down. The number of building permits has become negative. Sales are slowing, and housing affordability is one of the worst on record. Prices have now started to fall in countries like Australia, but this is what the peak market looks like.
We have been in the 18.5-year real estate market cycle for about 14 years now. We are now in the late expansion phase, the " winner's curse" phase . So technically, the slowdown in growth here is not a surprise. This is part of the script. For us, secondly, inflation. She is still tall now. And what's worse, according to the latest Fed forecast, inflation is rising , not falling.
And the indicator that worries them so much is significantly higher than the target level of 2%. So, with inflation moving in the wrong direction, it will be difficult to expect interest rates to fall anytime soon . Which brings us to the third point, or the power of three—the discount rate. The central bank's own forecasts now indicate that the next step will be an interest rate increase, not a decrease.
At this stage of the cycle and market, where everything is very volatile and expensive, people are too dependent on " easy" money, affordable loans, and low rates, which is a bad sign. This could be one of the triggers for our next peak and crash, given that many market peaks typically occur 8-10 months after the initial rate hike following a long period of affordable credit.
And we've seen so many loans available over the last few years. When the government added almost $3 trillion, guys, $3 trillion in new debt in the last 12 months alone, pushing the total to over $39 trillion. Now, the power of four—this is what should worry you the most, the risk premium. Currently, investors are paid almost nothing extra for taking on additional risk.
Credit spreads are now near their lowest levels in all cycles. You get paid the least for the risk. And that's why the most expensive assets, the long-term names, the big AI winners that everyone owns without any fundamentals, are the most vulnerable when prices are revised. Stock valuations are currently at the most extreme levels in market history, very similar to the Great Depression of 1929 and the dot-com peak of 1999.
So, we have what we have. Now everything is clear, isn't it? We now know the current state of our market situation. But the real question is what to do about it? And this is where people get everything upside down , which nicely brings me to the third point— my action plan. I have to be careful here because these are two completely different tasks, two different jobs.
And people mix them into one, and nothing comes out. Now, the number one task in the late stage of the cycle is preservation. What should we do now? Our main goal here is not to get incredibly rich, but to not lose money . When all four of Ray Dalio's forces line up like this and issue similar warnings, it's common for "smart money" to start flowing out of expensive growth stocks and technology companies into what I call "halo" stocks.
So, the "halo" is healthcare, real assets like gold, land, and infrastructure, and the base of the old economy— utilities and energy. The emphasis at this stage is on projected profits, not on exciting prospects that may never come true. I pay special attention to gold because if the government's plan is to constantly pay off debts by printing money, gold is my protection against the gradual depreciation of cash.
All of this. Task number two is the opposite, right? It occurs a little later, when the cycle finally reaches its bottom. According to my estimates, it will be somewhere around 2029, 2030 at the latest. This is the window for purchase. This is the moment when you take all your savings and buy quality companies that others are afraid to buy.
These could be financial, industrial sectors, real estate that has fallen in price, or the best technology companies at a discount. The "halo" stocks I mentioned earlier allow you to reach this window with your capital intact. This is not something you buy during this window. This is not something you buy at the bottom of the market.
To clarify, the "halo" portion that I plan to hold is a very small portion of my portfolio, as the bulk of it is rebalanced to be held in very safe assets: cash in various currencies, gold, and bonds. So, what exactly am I doing today ? My stock portfolio consists of only the best companies that meet all four of my criteria: high profits, the presence of an " economic moat", a solid balance sheet, and a fair price, including "halo" stocks and smaller holdings in technology stocks .
The cycle is the only thing holding me back from making larger purchases. In addition, I hold more cash and short-term safe assets than usual. I have a position in gold and I have a list of companies I want to own. So when the window opens, when prices and valuations come down and there's a greater margin of safety, I'll already know what to buy instead of panicking.
I'll be honest with you, okay? I could be wrong about the terms. Governments can stretch the cycle out longer than anyone expects. All I do is make a high-probability bet based on historical events that have proven accurate time and time again. That's why my own money is allocated to make a profit if I'm right and survive if the cycle drags on.
And here is the main conclusion. The point was never to actually predict the next crash. The point is to recognize the four forces before the others and take a position in advance, while it is calm and quiet now. This is exactly what Smart Investor does. It tracks these four forces, the cycle, and fundamental indicators in one place.
You saw the macro panel, the cycles panel, and the four-pillar investment analysis screen and fundamental analysis that I used for each stock analysis in this video. There is a free 7-day trial available now, link in the description. And if you want to learn about the concept behind it all , download my free price cycle report, it's also in the description.
And the question for you: be honest, is cash a safe haven right now or is it a slow drain on funds? I will read your answers.
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