저자: SmartXCapital진행자 · 외국인
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호주 부동산 시장은 최근 1조 달러 규모로 2010년 대비 60% 상승했고, 2021년 23.5% 급등이 핵심이다. 그러나 GDP 성장률(2024년 9월 0.3%)과 1인당 GDP 7분기 연속 감소, 실업률 약 4%와 대비되며 금융시장과 실물경제 괴리가 크다. 가계부채/GDP는 2010년 200%에서 300%로 올랐고, 원리금상환 비율은 세후 약 30%에 이른다. 레이 달리오의 부채·가격소득비·은행 레버리지·연체율 지표를 적용하면 버블 경고 신호가 뚜렷하다. 건설업 연체율과 파산이 급증하며 18.6년 부동산 사이클상 2026~2027년 정점이 예상된다. 대응으로 부채 축소, 정점 전 자산 매도, 금 보유를 제시한다.
다듬은 글
the Australian real estate market is valued at $1 trillion that's $1,000 billion and that's $ 60% up from 2010 and among those years one surprising thing is that the majority of the growth is in 2021 in that year alone there was a 23.5% gain the strongest annual growth in recent history if you think about it 24% gain in one year is a significant amount as especially when you're talking about real estate and when you factor in the fact that most people have 5x leverage because they put down 20% for the deposit a 24% property market gain is around 120% gain for them with such gains from the financial Market you might think we are in a bullish and very healthy economic environment well the story is a bit different since the financial Market only serves those who have capital or assets the economy on the other hand includes everyone even those who don't have any capital or assets which are the majority of people as a matter of fact in September 2024 Australia's GDP grew by only 0.3% the slowest since the early 1990s excluding the covid period of course per capita GDP declined by 0.3% in the same quarter representing the seventh consecutive quarterly Decline and the longest St stretch of negative per capita GDP growth ever lastly as of late 2024 Australia's unemployment is around 4% with projections of it rising to around 4.2 to 4.3% in 2025 therefore you can see a big gap and a big difference between the financial market and the economy and with such contrast it begs the question do I think our Market is sustainable probably not do I think we are in a bubble oh 100% so in this video I'm going to discuss the current1 trillion Australian housing issue I'll then reveal Ral system and how it relates to the current Australia's debt problem and lastly I'll uncover how you can protect your assets and your Investments throughout the pending crashes before we start if you guys would like all insights about real estate cycle property stock or crypto make sure you subscribe to my newsletter in the description down below it's all free and it got a lot of source some make sure you check it out all right let's start with the current $1 trillion Australian housing problem with the housing market the first area of focus we need to look at is the debt to GDP or debt to income ratio in 2010 this was 200% however from 2020 to now is a stacking 300% this means for every dollar income Australians earn they got to pay triple that in debt now that's just total debt but when you look at the the monthly outgoing cash flow for mortgage prepayments so debt servicing cost it is now at 20% the highest it has ever been in history but that's not all that's just pre-tax income if you account in post tax income this can come up to 30% and this figure is for a household family as well and household is usually two people pay so if you're a single parent out there and I know quite a few that's almost 60% of your income paying mortgage repayments meaning more than half your income paying the monthly mortgage in my mind I always wonder how is that person going to survive with a remaining salary with High Cost of Living like today their salaries do not leave room for margin of Errors if the GFC hits they probably won't make it through if they lose their jobs so out of curiosity I've asked the people that I know with these questions to them and they've told me two things it's either they think the market will always keep going up because the real estate agent told them so or they think they will just sell right before the top of the market and there's a few flaws with those uh answers now firstly markets have ups and downs and with real estate financial crisis sometimes the downtime can be 3 to 4 years secondly most people don't see the crash coming just like how most people don't see the GFC coming therefore they aren't prepared and they will always suffer because when the downtime come and it will come Landing slows down company go bankrupt jobs will be lost and when you no longer have a job to service your mortgage you will lose your home Banks and companies that rely on you paying your debt will go bus and this will trigger a domino effect on everyone but right now we still have some time we are not even near the top of the market or we are not even at the peak yet we are just about to enter the frenzy or the Mania phase at the same time we've been hearing about the government hinting at reducing the interest rates and when they do the market will Skyrocket and when that happens everyone will suddenly become the next waren Buffett your average Joe and the next door stripper will suddenly own three five 10 properties so it's very important for us to understand where we are in the cycle to prepare which brings us to the second Point Ray Dalo system and how it relates to the current Australia's debt problem now who's Ray Dalo Ray is the founder of the world's largest hedge fund and he's predicted almost every crisis the GFC the China's debt crisis co9 crash etc etc in fact he's so good that in the 2008 GFC he made roughly $8 billion when the whole Market was crashing therefore I do think his creditability and his past performance do give good guidance about predicting crashes and navigating markets like Australia specifically there's one system he's used and shared in many of his books and I'll uncover them right now the system includes firstly an analysis of the debt to income or debt to GDP ratio I've mentioned this before at the start but it's mainly just describing the portion of your income that represents your debt level the higher this figure is the more unlikely it will be for you to pay off your debt the second figure is a property price to income ratio this ratio depicts how many years it will take to buy a home a higher figure indicates how unsustainable it's going to get until people can no longer support the market the third ratio is the leverage ratios among Banks or debt to equity ratio this is an important one since Banks banks are the backbones of our country this ratio indicates how much debt banks have it details the amount of cash and short-term assets they have that are ready to absorb the losses out of their loans and Investments the higher this ratio the more debt a bank has the more unlikely they are to repay the debt if this ratio across banks in Australia is high it's a very very bad sign so prepare to see risk of Bank crashes Bank runs currency devaluation ation and home losses and lastly to Aid the leverage ratio is the number of defaults and late payments on debt obligations between businesses and Banks and people this one is one powerful one because it literally shows you the reality of if people are paying back their debts on time or even at all of course the higher it is the more alarming the state of the economy is well there you have it those are the ratios that R Delo uses now let's apply them to the Australian Market regarding the property price to income ratio in Australia is now at 17 times it means Australians would need to spend more than 17 times their annual disposable income to afford a home that means the average Aussie needs 17 years to buy a home outright 25 years ago it was only nine times so as you can see prices have gone out of control and it's gone up significantly more than it was before eventually as this figure goes higher and higher people's income will no longer be able to support the property demand regardless of government's intervention unless the government somehow thinks of schemes like the 100-year mortgage where you can pass down your mortgage to your kids and grandkids you might think I'm joking about this but it's actually a real thing and Japan has tried this before and I'm not surprised if the government even tries this again but at the end there's always a limit on how far this can actually go now now let's look at the leverage ratio among Banks as of now the average leverage ratio is 2.67 the nearing the GFC high of 3.02 this means for every dollar of equity the bank has it has more than 2.5 times of that in debt we have to be cautious of this it's because in this very severe financial crisis when asset values can drop sharply as they did in 2008 the cash and assets banks have might not be sufficient to absorb large losses and debt repayments even worse we've seen an increase in riskier loans from the banks stage two and stage three loans increasing risk in The Last 5 Years From 133% to 19% exposure now to really confirm our hypothesis let's also refer to some numbers on the rising default and late payments on debt obligations I want to look at the construction industry since it's the only thing I've been hearing on the headlines lately in 2023 overdue payments for construction companies reached their highest level since 2021 particularly we have a 1.77% default rate which is significantly higher than any other Industries and last year alone almost 2,000 construction companies entered administrations a 33% increase from previous year Additionally the construction sector now accounts for mainly 30% of all insolvencies in Australia 1/3 of the whole country represented by one sector that's quite a significant change if you ask me and the fact that this is happening to the construction industry out of all industry is a very big thing because according to Ray Delo and the 18.6 year real estate cycle that predicted all crisis from 1999 internet bubble to 2008 GFC to co crash every debt crisis starts with the construction industry first then the effects gets passed down to the consumers this is extremely true especially for the property Market how does it work usually when we are near the peak around 3 years from it the construction industry tends to have profitability problems because around this time the commodity cycle is usually in its Bull Run thus the commodity prices go up increasing the cost of building for the construction industry this means fewer and delayed property projects reducing the apply to the market this pushes property prices up and fuels the Mania which is the last stage of the cycle now just a reminder if you don't know the 18.6 year land cycle it's a cycle developed by Fred Harrison a famous British Economist that has built the cycle based off the last 200 years of economic data and it's the same system that many well-known property investors have used to leverage their wealth now back to the issue at hand once property prices get pushed up and the projects get delayed due to to increasing material cost developers have to wait for a while to finish their projects as a result all property projects are delayed at the same time and eventually all the delayed construction projects will start all together at once where property prices are now Skyhigh and it becomes profitable again to build and after that they will eventually reach completion simultaneously and flood the whole Market with Supply to Aid with the crash even worse at the peak of the market most people are still highly leveraged having negative cash flows every single month betting that prices will keep going up forever to sustain their negative gearing however if property prices do decline homeowners and institutions who are highly leveraged will struggle to refinance or sell their properties leading to higher default rates and start of the crash so knowing all of this how does one protect themselves against crashes well there's a few ways firstly a very common approach among the best investors would be to reduce your exposure as we head near to the peak in this case somewhere around 2026 2027 according to the 18.6 year land cycle this means if you have a lot of crypto stocks or properties perhaps selling them as we gradually get there the second approach is for those who are handly leveraged with properties this includes trying your best to pay off your debt and reduce your debt level once you're at the peak you want to have zero debt since the peak tends to be associated with an increase in interest rates which will mean higher repayments while your property prices go down the third approach is to buy assets that tend to do well during crashes one asset that stands out to me is gold for example in the 200.com bubble gold prices from 2001 to 2004 increased by 53% in the 2008 GFC gold initially dipped and dropped as investors sold their assets to cover losses but quickly rebounded with a 63% increase and lastly in 2020 Co crash gold showed a 36% increase in 8 months well there you have it do let me know what you think of this issue of the Australian Market in the comment section down below and if you do want to see further insights about the market of real estate crypto and stocks of the Cycles make sure you subscribe because I will be revealing the rest of my findings very soon
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