IT STARTED: Australia Market is Crashing 🚨 Ray Dalio's Final Warning

요약 보기

호주 부동산은 2021년 24% 상승 등으로 시장 규모가 커졌으나 가계부채 대비 소득 비율(300%)과 주택가격/소득 비율(17.7배)이 지속 불가능한 수준이라고 주장. 대출 레버리지(은행 자본비율 5%)와 건설업 연체·파산 증가를 위험 신호로 제시. 레이 달리오 프레임워크를 인용해 현재 시장이 과열 직전이며 금리 인하 시 광풍이 올 수 있고, 2~3년 뒤 정점 후 폭락 가능성을 경고. 다만 호주 정부 부채 여력과 은행 스트레스 테스트 결과를 들어 미국식 대폭락은 덜할 것이라 언급.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. the Australian real estate market is valued at1 trillion that's $1,000 billion and that's 60% up from 2010 and among those years one surprising thing is that the majority of the growth is actually in 2021 in that year there was a 24% gain the strongest annual growth we've ever seen in recent history so if you do think about it a 24% gain in 1 year is quite significant amount especially when you're talking about real estate because when you factor in the fact that most people have around a 5x leverage because they all put down 20% for their deposit it's actually a a very significant and insane amount because 24% property market gain is around 120% capital gain for them when you times five so that backs the question for me do I think that all of this is sustainable probably not because when you look at the debt to income ratio in 20110 it was 200% but from 2020 until now it's increased significantly to 300% that means for every dollar of income an Australian earns they are paying almost triple that amount in debt now that's just total debt but when you actually look at the monthly outgoing cash flow that people make for their mortgage payments it's currently now at 20% for a household family it's the highest it's ever been in the history but also that's just pre-tax income if you account in post tax income this can come up to 30% and you know how I mentioned that this is all for a household Family household is two people so that's the best case scenario I do know quite a lot of people out there on their own holding a mortgage which is around almost half of their income paying mortgage payments almost half of your income paying the monthly mortgage payments in my mind I always wonder how is that person going to survive with the remaining of their income where we are having such a big High Cost of Living like today because their salaries do not have enough room for motion of Errors especially when the global financial crisis hits how are they going to be able to make it through and I've asked these few questions to them before and they told me two things it's either that they think the market will always go up because the real estate agent told them so or they think that they will just sell right before the top of the market now firstly markets have ups and downs so with real estate financial crisis sometimes the downtime can last 3 to 4 years so can you really last 3 to 4 years of potential negative uh income and negative cash flow or potential you losing your jobs for that long also most people don't see the crash coming exactly like the way how most did not see the global financial crisis coming in 2008 those who aren't prepared well will always suffer because when the downturn comes Landing slows down companies will go bankrupt jobs will be lost and when you no longer have a job to service your mortgage you will lose your home and there are banks and companies that rely on you paying your debt they will go bust and this will trigger a domino effect on everyone and usually that's how a crash happens but right now we still have some time we are not even near the top of the market yet we are just about to enter the frenzy or Mania face we've been hearing about the government hinting that reducing interest rates and when they do the market will Skyrocket people will suddenly become the next waren Buffett and your average Joe and your next door stripper will suddenly own three or four properties out of nowhere so it's quite important to understand where we are in the cycle to prepare if you do want to look into this I would highly recommend looking into Ray diio he's the founder of the world's largest hedge fund and he has predicted almost every single crisis so you have the GFC the China's death crisis and covid-19 crash in the year of 2008 in a GFC he made roughly around $8 billion when the whole Market was crashing therefore I do think his credibility and his past performance do give good guidance about predicting crashes and navigating markets like Australia he's also shared his many systems in many of his books and they usually include firstly the debt to income or debt to GDP ratios which I've already talked about he also includes the property price to income ratio as well this usually indicates how many years of income that a person needs to buy a home usually higher figure of this tends to indicate how unsustainable it's going to get until people can no longer support the market he also talks about the leverage ratios among Banks so really how much debt the banks have it details the amount of high quality common equity and the retained earnings that are ready to absorb losses out of all the exposures like loans and other Investments and lastly He also mentioned the number of defaults and late payments on debt obligations between businesses and Banks and people so when we apply race system to Australia we will kind of see the full picture firstly when you look at the property price to income ratio you can see that right now it's 177 times for Australia this means that Australians would need to spend more than 17 times the annual disposable income to afford a home that means the average Aussie needs 17 years to buy a home outright 25 years ago it was only nine times the average salary right now is $70,000 the average house price in Sydney is 1.5 million so as you can see prices of properties have gone up significantly faster than income alone eventually as this figure balloons and things gets out of control people will not be able to afford homes anymore mainly based on the fact that their income will be such a small insignificant amount compared to home prices and eventually this insignificant income will not be able to support property demand and development regardless of government's interventions therefore a higher figure of property price to income ratio tends to indicate how unsustainable it's going to get until people can no longer support the market unless governments thinks of schemes like the 100-year mortgage schemes where you can pass down your mortgage even after you die how good to all of your children your grandchildren your great grandchildren depends on how long you live and uh you might think I'm joking but Japan has done this before uh it has not worked for them but I am not surprised if our government decides to try the same thing again secondly when you apply The Leverage ratios among Banks to Australia right now in Australia it's an average of 5% among Banks it means that every bank has on average $5 of capital for every $100 of debt exposures that means for every $100 of debt they have around $5 of high quity common equity and cash to absorb any potential losses or disasters from their debt now 5% might sound very low and I think it is low so in a severe financial crisis when asset values can drop sharply as they did in 2008 this buffer might not be sufficient to absorb large losses even worse from our research we've seen an increase in riskier loans from Banks so stage two and stage three loans we've increased risk in The Last 5 Years From 133% to 19% exposure lastly when you look into Rising default rates and late payments on debt obligations in Australia right now an area of focus is actually the construction industry so in this year alone we've seen an increase in in overdue payments from them reaching the highest level ever since 2021 particularly we've seen a default rate of 1.77% which is significantly higher than any other Industries and when you look into the construction industry last year alone there was almost 2,000 construction companies that entered into Administration and that's a 33% increase from the previous year not only that our construction sector alone accounts for nearly 30% of all insolvencies in Australia onethird of the whole country is represented by one sector that's quite a significant change if you ask me according to Ray and other investors every debt crisis actually starts with the Construction Industries first then the effects pass down to Consumers so we're seeing the first sign of the main Peak usually when the construction industry is affected it will start the supply constraints since fewer constructions right meaning higher property prices which fuels the Mania now all the property projects that are delayed at the same time meaning eventually these delayed construction projects will reach completion simultaneously by then it will flood the market with Supply to Aid the crash and at the peak of the market most people tend to be very highly leveraged therefore they will have negative cash flows every single month because they are betting the prices will keep going up to sustain their negative gearing however the sad reality is if property prices decline homeowners and institutions who are highly leveraged could struggle to refinance or sell their properties which again will lead to higher default rates and the start of the crash these types of signs are what really worry me about the time to come because everyone around me seems so optimistic so I do hope that people are more aware that not everything go up all the time and that people who can't afford to have short-term losses should know about this you shouldn't take beds that you can't survive from if you lose your job you will lose everything you'll lose your homes potentially your family too your family needs a home to live in so I I I do want people to be very cautious to understand the cycle to know where we are and I know I've been saying a lot of negative things thus far there are a few bright things that we can look at because as bad as things might seem I don't think Australia will get as severe crashes as the US it's because when we look into the de T GDP ratio right now we are at 35% which is still a big increase from 17 .6% in 2010s however when you compare it to other countries like the US which is at 128% we can see that there's a big gap that means we still have a lot of room for our Central Bank to manage debt and to use debt to save the economy in the future when bad times come so we still have that buffer and when you look into the leverage ratio I mentioned before how right now all the banks are really highly leveraged with a lot of safety precautions in case the worst case scenarios come however the Opera or APR actually enforces stress testing where they regularly conduct stress tests to ensure that Banks can survive severe downturns so in the most recent stress test Australian banks remained resilient even when a hypothetical 10% unemployment rate and a 33% drop in house prices occur so as long once we don't go over that we shouldn't be in any bad spot but you never know so always be ready and right now we're around 2 to 3 years away from the peak of the market so I think it's very important to educate yourself to prepare to understand what will happen in 2 years in 5 years in 10 years because the more you know the more you know the thing is knowing where we are might be helpful in preparation but if you truly want to know what to do next during this period of 2 to 3 years and after the market has crashed check out this other video I made