wooooooooooow

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10월 CPI가 예상보다 낮아 시장 강세 근거로 제시. 주거비(OER) 0.1%로 둔화, 애틀랜타 연은 GDP 3.9%, S&P 글로벌 PMI 양호로 경기 호조 주장. 연준 12월까지 추가 인하 가격 반영, 고용지표 공백 및 미중 무역 협상(트럼프-시진핑)이 주요 리스크. 상승 추세(Nike swoosh) 지속 전제, 채권 강세(TLT 상승) 기대는 낮춤.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Holy smokes. We are experiencing the wildest squeeze in the stock market and today's inflation report clearly contributed if not even makes the most bullish scenario for now. Now, there are some serious risks which I'm going to talk about those risks at the end of the video. But here's something crazy.

02. You might remember going all the way back to the end of 2022 when Kevin said, "I don't know, folks. I think we're going to have this crazy Nike swoosh recovery and it's going to end in some insane euphoria." If you remember, my thesis for that was people aren't going to believe that inflation is going to come down.

03. And the basis that we used back then 3 years ago was that housing inflation would flatline. And folks, it has finally happened now. It took way longer than anybody expected. And it is a miracle, an absolute miracle that the labor market has not collapsed yet. But that's where we stand today. And it's really remarkable because today's CPI report told us exactly this.

04. That owner's equivalent rent moved only 0.1%. This is the lowest that we've seen since January of 2021. And folks, look at the Nike swoosh. It doesn't matter. Liberation, the Chinese uh or the Japanese carry trade, none of that stuff matters. The Nike swoosh is holding. We are just on the perfect path of the Nike swoosh of print print money.

05. In fact, if you look at the Nike swoosh, we haven't even had the euphoric part yet, which is crazy because everything is at all-time highs. Now, does that mean we could be purely and squarely bullish? That depends on the time frame. We're going to talk about that as we review some of the data here. So, first CPI this morning 0.1 lower than expected, which is exactly what I predicted in, of course, the alpha report.

06. Now, again, I I feel like people won't believe this. Like, the last two days I did the alpha report, I put it together, I sent it to course members, even though I'm not I wasn't publicly live streaming. I didn't even get a video out yesterday cuz I was flying back home. It's so great to be home. And I don't think people believe it.

07. But yesterday, I'm like, "Hey, hey, the number to play today, like we go bullish yesterday." Did I say this? The the number to play today is the entire market goes bullish if AMD holds three or 232. Look how many times we bounced. Now, it wasn't perfect, you know, maybe within 20 cents there. But look at that.

08. That's like four or five bounces on 232. And that was such a bullish confirmation in addition to, oh, Trump's going to release the CPI. Of course, it's going to be lower than expected. Duh. They already have the damn data. So he knew exactly what he was doing. That's why we said in the alpha report like, "Hey, this is bullish, bullish, bullish." And look at AMD's launch off of this.

09. So absolutely wild. But wait a minute, why then are we not seeing the 10-year Treasury come down more aggressively? Ah, yes. Well, that's because we don't have enough of a CPI collapse to actually get us really, really rapid cuts. So, we're kind of in this really kind of, dare I say, fantastic spot where the data and GDP are great, but there are lingering risks.

10. Again, we'll talk about those ow just upgraded to 3.9%. Growth seems to be booming on all cylinders. Then this morning we got the US SNP global PMI read and they had a note about both manufacturing and services and the note said the following. We had an acceleration of activity in October, the fastest or I should say the second fastest in 2025 with improvements in both manufacturing and services, modest employment growth and GDP consistent with 2.5%.

11. Now that's not as high as what we had with uh what we got uh in the Atlanta Fed real GDP numbers, but both of those are pointing really bullish. So, the Nike swoosh is pointing bullish, which has been frankly bullish since 2022. There are lingering concerns, which are fair, and we're going to talk about those.

12. Uh, and we've now got new S&P data, which is a private survey, which is indicating bullish for October. We expected CPI to come in low. This isn't really a surprise. Why else would Donald Trump release that and then, oh, uh, yeah, but, uh, but next month we're not going to release the CPI report because we haven't been collecting the data.

13. He's already announced that like the White House has already told us we're not doing it next month. And meanwhile, no jobs reports because why not? And we're just going to rug the Fed on jobs reports because why? Some people in the comments a couple days ago were asking, Kevin, why what benefit would Trump have of hiding the jobs reports?

14. If he hides the jobs report and it's low, wouldn't that help rates come down? That's not all you want. What you really want is you want just enough data to get the Fed to give Trump his 25s, 25s, 25s. You can do that with the CPI, but if you're running the data, what you don't want is to panic the Fed with big negative job prints because it's not just going to panic the Fed, it'll panic the job or the stock market and then you have a crash and then that unwinds Donald Trump's tariff trade or his tariff plans because he loses a lot of leverage and credibility.

15. Now, that's we're not saying that's what's going to happen, but it's worth noting that could be one of the reasons if you happen to be a magician who wanted to control this, you want to give the Fed enough to give them 25 bip cuts because it keeps the markets going up, but you don't want to give them so much that the stock market starts going, "Oh crap, we're dropping into a recession." Now, we don't know that's what the jobs numbers are going to say.

16. But it is really interesting because it does at least for uh stock number eight, nine and 10 that we add to the next 10year best stocks to buy. Those are for the next 10 years, my opinion of the next 10 best stocks to buy, which of course we talk about in the Meet Kevin report. We've already released the first seven.

17. We've got three more to go. Remember, if you're not part of this yet, use the link down below. Just go to meet Kevin.com. You join once, you get all of the courses. Uh you get all the lectures, the new lectures, archives of all the course member live streams. You can go back and look at the alpha reports and you can not only get the new ones but also the archival ones if you want to see.

18. No, when we go live in the course member liveream together, we build them out together and so you could see ah okay yeah Kevin like this like I had course members yesterday they're like all right like I didn't even mention it. I've just mentioned it so many times. I'm like, guys, you know, 414 line on Tesla.

19. Like, they don't even need to mention it. They know because they're learning by using the alpha report. Look at that. Yesterday, what did you get after the open 414 bounce within 10 cents of 414? Actually, within 60 cents of my line, but dude, look at that. It was straight up after that. That was really impressive on on a bounce there.

20. Today, we were actually bullish. Coreweave uh and MP Material for a bounce because they've been selling off so much. core's up 7% today. It's kind of remarkable. Uh now the risk of course for any interest rate trades was that the 10-year Treasury would go up. Okay. Well, why did the 10-year Treasury go up?

21. Because we got a good inflation report, right? Not enough because that super core level is actually running at the hottest level that it's been running in about a year. It's running at 2024 levels. So super core still decently excessive or aggressive and this is probably the hardest one for the Federal Reserve to kind of put a lid on.

22. So yeah, we're seeing tariff components pop up like household furnishings up the most since the middle of 2023. Audiovisisual equipment up the most since 2021. Super core services skipping 25 paces for going to the highest pace in 2024. Not great. Uh we got our cost of living adjustment for social security at 2.8%.

23. So all of these numbers obviously well above 2%. And it's nice that owner's equivalent rents are anchoring Donald Trump's tariff inflation down. But Trump's tariff inflation is showing up. We know that owner's equivalent rents because rents are flattening. That doesn't mean they're falling. They're still ridiculously high, right?

24. Uh but because they're flatlining in a lot of areas, it's it's enough to get the Fed to give us 25s. Now, the Fed pricing right now is actually ind indicative of more than two cuts this year, but not by much, which is really interesting. If you look at the current futures pricing, let me see if I can pull it up here.

25. Futures pricing right now has a 96.7% chance of a rate cut uh next Wednesday, which is pretty much guaranteed. Uh, and then we actually are pricing in uh a uh slightly more than two cut uh opportunity for December 10th. Now, it's it'll end up being 25 and 25 and a nothing program. Maybe we'll get our jobs data at some point this year.

26. I expect it'll either be right before Thanksgiving or right afterwards. It'll be this year we'll get it. Uh but that's probably the leftover pisser for any of the bears. It's jobs in China. Now, you already know that. Now, we're supposed to have the Trump meeting with Xiinping next Thursday. We'll see how that goes.

27. Either way, I would bet on a taco. And so far, the data that we're seeing on state-based unemployment claims that are sort of coming out weekly since we're not getting the federal data weekly, they're not indicating some sort of major shock to employment. Yeah, we just had announcements of layoffs and white collar jobs.

28. Amazon says the robots are going to take over. Elon says the robots are going to take over and I'm going to be a trillionaire. Uh, and yeah, you've got, you know, some layoffs at Target and otherwise, but none of those are enough to really offset what is actually still some hiring happening here, happening before the holiday season.

29. So, so far so good. Now, that actually adjusts, in my opinion, uh, with this data that we're getting here, the bare bull scale. My biggest fear has obviously been the rise of 27 weeks of unemployment, but if we soft land here, then that will just prove to be wrong. It'll have proven to be too conservative, and it would have made more sense to be more aggressive going into, well, frankly, the continuation of the Nike swoosh recovery, especially since we're not even at euphoric levels of the Nike swoosh yet, which is crazy to think that there could be a whole another stage to this.

30. Wild. Yes. So, where do we stand with all of this? Well, look, I'm really excited because you know me personally, I have built what I think is an amazing baby uh of a real estate startup that has no debt. I just announced that I personally am also debtree. Got some more videos coming out on that. Uh but we also just launched the total rebrand of the House Hack website.

31. I still wear it because you know the corporate name is still House Hack. It's the same thing, House Hack Reinvest. We just think this is such a cool name because it's like real estate invest or reinvest your money into diversified American real estate. But what I wanted to show you about this is on reinvest.co.

32. Now, I didn't pay the million dollars for the M. Uh but on reinvest.co, it's amazing this brand is even available. And so we snagged it. We're like, "Oh, this is going to be an awesome app name." We uh we listed our app. Uh, and so you could see sort of some of the graphics for what our projections, I shouldn't say projections, but what our hopes are, uh, for our time frames for the app, revenues for the app, where our pricing might end up being, uh, how we're going to give notifications.

33. It's all about wedge deals and helping people build their net worth with uh, AI and our custom MLS. Some of y'all had, by the way, really, really smart uh, questions like, "Hey, Kevin, you know, you said you're running your own blackwells with Houseack/reinvest. you know why like is that cost effective the answer is yes for our training so when it comes to uh the the ML the very niche ML training that we're doing we can actually utilize our own blackwell chips in a very cost-effective manner probably about five to 10 times as costefficient uh because of not being in a rush to utilize the uh this ML training so we don't need as many black wells And the black wells we're using are efficient enough.

34. They're actually more efficient than some of like the 4090 chips which obviously are, you know, fractionally as as powerful. Uh but the black wells are ironically more efficient than some of those chips which is like mind-blowing on an energy basis. So long and short of it, we do some of our ML training locally.

35. Uh but when it comes to inference, when we actually, you know, run this app, it's it's all going to be uh uh you know, cloud-based because it needs to be fast. We can't have latency from, you know, sort of in-house Blackwells and waiting for for them, you know, we're not going to do that. But it's really exciting because to me, I'm like, dude, if we're going to Nike swoosh and we're going to go euphoric rally here and everything's going to kind of keep booming, this fine with us, man.

36. This will be like the most fantastic environment for growing uh our our AI product. And we're like, dang, you know, if we could soft land here, maybe we can move up our IPO schedule. You know, I I just sent a message to course members yesterday. I'm like, hey, you know, should we do something here uh with um with with revenues at House Hack where, you know, not only can we offset a lot of our operating expenses beyond what we're already doing, but we might be able to utilize some of that to reinvest more into real estate, our AI, and accelerate IPO time frames.

37. uh and the vast majority of people are are like super excited about that. So, we've got a lot of really exciting things cooking. Now, obviously, uh this probably means that uh you know, this this idea that bond yields are going to fall or TLT is going to run before Halloween is not going to happen. So, we're going to have a cool Halloween setup.

38. Uh but that's okay. You know, it's okay to be wrong. Uh not can't always be right. Uh, knock on wood, the alpha report has been smoking lately. So, people have really been enjoying that and sending us messages about how quickly they're making money to pay for their investment, even though the investment is a tax writeoff anyway with enjoying the alpha report.

39. But broadly, I do believe Donald Trump is going to taco uh with with China. And the biggest risk is that employment data, but we're not going to see that employment data for quite a while. Now, if you want, what you could do is you could actually um go to meet Kevin.com/data. I'm going to update the Bearbull scale here.

40. So, go to meet kekevin.comdata uh and you'll see uh some links to the latest house hack videos. You'll see uh the Trump taco scale. You'll see the bull bear or bear bull scale. Uh and uh what you'll also see is I want you to sign up here potentially to the uh the daily wealth here if you want. So, drop your email in here for the daily wealth and I'd love uh you to be part of what we're doing with the daily wealth.

41. You can get it through the Meet Kevin app or you could get it via email. If you drop your email here, you'll get it through email. And I think it's absolutely fire. And so if you're not part of that yet, consider joining this. But anyway, go to meet.com/data uh and get my latest update on the um Bearbull scale.

42. All right, folks. We'll see you in the next one. Good luck out there. A pretty wild a wild position that we're in. And uh it just sort of makes us scratch our heads like, man, what's Donnie T going to do to derail this? Cuz right now this is good. Again though, what's jump going? What's going to happen with China? It's the leftover ris.