저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
미 연준(Fed)이 트럼프 행정부 영향으로 흔들리고 있다는 주장. 정부 셧다운 후 ADP가 연준에 주간 고용 데이터를 중단한 것을 근거로 든다. 중국 수출통제 협상 기대와 함께 10/31~11/1 이벤트를 주목하며, 자신의 알파 리포트 매도/약세 콜(비욘드미트, 오픈도어, MP머티리얼즈, 코어위브)이 적중했다고 주장. 해외 대형 펀드 First Brands 대출 관련 AI 활용 사례도 언급.
다듬은 글
Holy smokes, the Federal Reserve just got rug pulled by a Donald Trump, likely by Donald Trump. Don't sue me, bro. We've got to talk about it. It's a big deal in addition to obviously markets selling off today. Now, I personally was not expecting a market sell-off today. In fact, on the Alpha report this morning, I said that I was leaning slightly bearish at least until we get CPI, mostly because of the reaction we saw to Netflix yesterday, which Netflix would have beat had it not been for a Brazilian money export tax fee that they had to pay for basically the last 3 and 1/2 years in retrospect or like, you know, after the fact.
So, now if you know, if you didn't have that charge, Netflix would have actually beat. And the fact that you've got multiple Wall Street banks downgrading Netflix after that is, who knows, maybe an opportunity to buy it. But frankly, an example that institutional investors are like, "No, man, take profits.
Everything's too high. Everything's too high." And they're looking for every reason to sell. And that's sort of what drove me to be like, "All right, well, it could be a little bit of a slightly bearish omen so far." That obviously comes in addition to Trump's tariff software release this morning, which we'll talk about.
But I will so I I will say I'm surprised to see the Qs now off 1.8%. It's probably because of the China news, which I'll touch on as well, which came out a little bit more suddenly. But I really want to talk about Powell and briefly I want to shout out that the trade I 'm like, "Guys, what's Beyond Meat?" Which we mentioned back when it was a $60 million market cap company, penny stock, like 50 cent stock.
We're like, "Oh man, this has mean potential." Freaking thing skyrockets to like $7. This morning in the course member live stream, you know, 'm like, "Guys, it's on the homepage of CNBC. You know what that means, right? Like, you know, $6 to $8 is probably the top for the sucker. It's at $7. It's on the homepage of CNBC.
I'm getting MarketWatch notifications on it. It's probably at the top. And even if it's not at the top, everybody's going to leave OpenDoor and flock to it. But be careful cuz it's probably at the top. That was said in our Alpha report this morning. And dude, the thing tanks at the open. Absolutely tanks.
The thing was up at like $7. Now it's down at $3.90 as we're recording this. And OpenDoor sells off 8% and you've still got another 8.7% sell-off on MP material. Now, all of those are momentum examples. And so you have to remember that. Yes, there is a fundamental argument for MP material, but it's a 5-year argument.
Somebody in the course member live stream this morning, you know, they use coupon code shoemr siesta and they join and they got their lifetime access before the price goes up. They're like, "Kev, it Well, when do I fundamentally buy MP material?" I go, "When all the traders are gone. When all the short-termers because Trump took an equity stake are gone and people are trading MP material on its fundamentals, which are basically nothing." They only just stopped exporting their minerals to China to gain revenues.
So, now they lost all of their sources of revenue. Now, of course, they made a deal with Apple and they're getting pre-commitment revenues, but those aren't actual revenues yet. They're going to be pre-earned revenues. So, you you basically have this liability of deferred revenues. You don't actually have revenues yet cuz you can't fulfill the service yet.
Anyway, you got to get the traders out. That's that's the whole point of that. But anyway, what the heck with the Powell rug this morning? Dude, listen to this. Nick Timiraos had a whole piece this morning. He's like, "Hey, remember at the end of August how Mr. Waller over at the Federal Reserve was like, 'Yeah, don't worry, guys.
We have a lot of data. Nobody has' I don't know why he sounds like Trump now. 'We have a lot of data and nobody has more data than we do. In fact, we use this this private release of weekly employment data.' And I remember making a video. I'm like, 'Dude, I wish we had that We only get the ADP data report once a month.
The Fed gets it once a week. Damn, bro, that's nice, man. I wish I had that kind of data. That's not really fair, but all right. All right, you guys got the data. Maybe that's why you're pivoting to become dovish. Maybe that's why the 10-year Treasury yield is falling and why mortgage rates are going down cuz you're all pivoting dovish.
Okay. Guess what happened? Apparently, this is my guess, the Trump administration heard about it. And when they heard about it, they're like, "Oh, hell no. We shut down the government to keep this jobs data away from the Fed. ADP's giving the data to the Fed on a weekly basis? Oh, hell no." And all of a sudden, poof, the ADP is no longer reporting weekly jobs data to the Fed.
We're not talking about weekly claims data. We're talking about that private weekly data that nobody got but the Fed. Poof, gone. And so people are like, "Oh, is it a mistake? Jerome Powell, come on over here, Jack. Jerome Powell, can you hit up ADP? They're like, "Yo, uh well, the government is shut down and especially, pretty please, could we pretty please please please have that weekly ADP data back?" And ADP's like, "Nah, bro.
We ain't doing that anymore." And so that's leading a lot of people to go, "Well, well, well, why? Why wouldn't they do that?" Folks, it's obvious. The whole private sector is rigged right now to get on the knees. You've got to get on the knees and you've got to do your business for Donald T. Because guess what happens if all of a sudden, you know, some company like Pfizer, you know, whom Donald Trump is doing everything to rub elbows with right now.
How many employees does Pfizer have? Well, I don't know. We could do a quick Google on it. Pfizer has 81,000 employees. Guess what payroll processor they have? ADP. Guess what happens if ADP or Pfizer goes, "You know, we like Trump so much. We're going to go to a different payroll processor." Dude, ADP starts losing lots of money.
So, not saying definitely that's what's happening, but it's likely that's what's going on. Donald Trump wants the Fed rug because he doesn't want the actual bad data out. And it should be scary for you. Now, it's weird because before this market started selling off, I actually sent a buy and sell alert to my course members this morning.
And again, this is not only where I issue sell alerts on my top or buy alerts on my top 10 stocks to buy for the next, you know, 10 years, but I also issue some when where if there's like cash raise or, you know, cash raise that I'm doing or whatever. I'm like, "Hey, this is what I'm selling for whatever reason." And this morning I sold two particular stocks and sold net a lot more, like 20x more of a sell than I bought of my our number seven top 10 stock to buy over the next 10 years, which we just announced today.
So, I was kind of saying, "What's up, buddy?" Did you tell me what a sell alert Pepsi's? No, son. So, anyway, um the Look, this ADP rug pull is kind of crazy. Uh what's wild though is in addition to this ADP rug pull, in addition to uh this this you know, what's it called, this Chinese uh software export rules regulation uh where basically Reuters is leaking that we now have information on what the export controls are going to look like.
And people are like, "Why is this happening?" It's leverage. It's people trying to get leverage for for, you know, negotiating with Xi Jinping, which Donald Trump thinks he's going to get a great trade deal. Not not that he actually will. Uh did I finish saying what I was going to say? Anyway, join the Meet Kevin membership and you can get all those alerts, too.
I think that's all I wanted to say. And then then Jack popped spawned in. But anyway, the other thing that was wild this morning was, and this was sort of a small note, but there's literally a company called Athleon Capital Partners, who had a quote unusually concentrated position in loans of First Brands, and they used an AI-driven platform, aka ChatGPT-like LLMs, to identify risks.
And what they identified was, "Yeah, we're going to buy more First Brands loans." And they had an unusually high position of 1.29%, which is still relatively small, but I guess amongst CLOs was the highest position in First Brands. And they were bragging about how they use LLMs. Crazy. So, there's that.
And then obviously, you know, the China news is probably just what has people nervous this week. Of course, because remember, that's our big catalyst coming up. We've been talking about that. Coming up to October 31st and November 1st. Probably going to be seeing some clown catalysts, too. But that's when we're going to be getting, "Hey, are we going to get a deal with China?" So far, my guess is no.
On top of the Fed rug, man, I don't know. I don't know what's going on, man, but I'll tell you, dude, the Alpha report freaking killed it this morning. Bearish on Beyond Meat it tanks. Bearish on Open it tanks. Buy sell alert with like a 20x sell compared to buy this morning and then all of a sudden the market walks off a cliff and MP sells off another 8% and Coreweave, which I went bearish on when it lost 137, also falls off a cliff by 7%. All of those are in the Alpha report.
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