저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
중국의 무역합의 관련 공격적 발언과 희토류 우위가 지속되며 미·중 무역 합의는 부정적 촉매로 봄. 셧다운이 장기화되어 GDP에 타격이 크고 AI 붐도 정점에 가까워졌다는 판단. OpenAI 사용량 감소와 엔비디아의 OpenAI 대출보증 소식으로 신용·AI 사이클 경계감 표명. MP머티리얼즈는 100 고점 대비 하락해 약세 견해 유지.
다듬은 글
All right. So, China is being a bad friend in my opinion. Now, I'm going to break down what I mean by this, but it has important considerations for this whole Trump China trade deal. Now, look, Donald Trump has done a fantastic thing in the Middle East so far with Israel and Hamas, but I don't know if he's going to be as successful with the China trade deal.
And it's not because I have anything against Donald Trump. It's because of what I'm seeing the Chinese say on a daily basis. While at the same time, Donald Trump is like, "Everything's great. Xiinping is my best friend." I mean, he doesn't say, but but to to some extent, he's sort of like, "We're great friends.
She's a great man. We're gonna have a great deal. It's going to be the one of one of the greatest deals ever." By the way, have I told you how many wars I have solved. Tariffs. Anyway, every time Donald Trump does this, the Chinese dump on us. And I want you to see this directly. These are their words or I'll I'll talk it to you since I'm on an iPhone.
I'm in Hawaii. I'm on a balcony. It's like 6:00 a.m. over here. I've been live for like 3 hours. Okay. It's weird. Actually, it's 5:56 a.m. which is weird because you're waking up at 2:30 in the morning to try to like help people out with the meet Kevin Alpha report in the morning. It's crazy. Which, by the way, MP material, which will be related to what we're about to talk about, keeps going down.
MP material is down another 6.7%. The reason I sort of tangentially jumped into that after mentioning the alpha report was because we wrote in the alpha report this runs to 100 and tops at 100 and it's down 24% since topping at 100. So if you're not part of that yet, join in the meet membership at mikv.com.
Okay. So after Donald Trump met the PM of Australia yesterday, we'll just put this all together here for you. The Global Times, which is basically your Chinese propaganda wing, puts out an article going, "This deal cannot shake China's dominant status in the supply chains for rare earths in the short term." Basically, they're like, "China is way ahead, and Australia should be careful." They're literally threatening Australia by saying that Australia should be careful because if they cozy up to the United States, they risk quote missing the big picture and suffering long-term losses if they keep being a staunch ally of the United States.
This is like I don't understand how that's supposed to reconcile with Donald Trump going is a great friend. We're going to make the greatest deal ever. Nobody knows deals, right? like that doesn't it just doesn't reconcile reconcile like yesterday Donald Trump's like we signed an F-35 deal we have the greatest aircraft ever and then what happens you've got Australia which violates apparently allegedly China's airspace and China runs news headlines about this violation now China is actually alleging that that was done on purpose to show that Australia is trying to align with the United States or at least that's how China sees it and so China's like hey Australians you guys are going to lose us as a friend if you cozy up to the United States.
Just this morning, the Chinese are begging the Europeans to partner with them. I mean, just look it up. China European video conference calls. This is common. China is trying to get everybody on their side in a sort of an us versus them manner, but it doesn't reconcile with this idea that we're actually going to get a good trade deal on November 1st.
So, but is it going to be a not a bullish catalyst? It's actually going to be a negative catalyst, right? So, this is also very interesting. As is classic, Donald Trump announces these sort of deals and most of the time these deals are frameworks of deals, sort of concepts of plans and they eventually hopefully evolve into something unlike the healthcare plan from Trump.
Oh, the MAGA people are going to get pissed for me saying that but whatever. Um, so without the China writes this without revealing any details about that plan, he claimed that within a year we'll have so many critical minerals and rare earths you won't know what to do with them. China then suggests that the United States does not have the processing capacity and neither does Australia to actually pull off these rare earths because they call it an extremely high technical threshold for rare earth purification.
China, by the way, MP Material used to sell the vast majority of their rare earths that they raw collected to China. That's how they made most of their money is they dig the rare earths and they'd send them to China because they can't process it in the United States. Now the idea is that you know with the government equity stake in MP material uh and you know maybe a 5year time horizon MP material will catch up but a lot of people are like wait a minute what'll actually end up happening is you'll have China just continue to advance and they'll still be way ahead of us.
In fact here China is one of the countries mastering the most advanced technology in this high precision purification technology and achieved larger scale production. Now obviously it's Chinese propaganda. , "Hey, this is us versus them." Okay? If you partner with the US, you're not partnering with us.
We have the technology, you don't. And they're right. Like, you have to like, you have to also give the credit where credit is due. They're right. We don't have the production capability right now. Then China, this is the propaganda part where where they go, they cannot shake China's dominant position in the rare earth supply.
But this reminds China to accelerate its own reserves of critical resources on a global scale. So they pick up on us saying we want to derisk from China as evidence as to why they want to keep trying to get ahead of us. Then they totally dunk on us. Like how is somebody who's trying to partner with China or with with Donald Trump to make a deal, how do they write stuff like this?
The submarine deal that the United States partnered with Australia on, even if it ends up getting approved, will probably not be delivered on time, considering the United States's manufacturing capacity can hardly meet its domestic needs. Bloomberg in September 24 reported that the US Navy's new Virginia class submarines slipped two to three years behind schedule and are projected to run 17 billion over their planned budget through 2030.
So in other words, I mean obviously we're looking at this as as you know the propaganda wing of the Chinese, but this is what they're saying. This is in addition to them dumping on us yesterday. They literally call what we're doing quote band-aid diplomacy. they're dunking on us hard. This comes at the same time as you've got the economist saying so far markets are weathering the loss of confidence.
However, there is a red flag in markets right now. If you look at shares of companies that are called business development companies or kind of like REITs but for not real estate rather like business loans and one ticker you could look up is Maine, M A I N like Main Street. Uh it has a dividend yield of 5.28%.
But it's tanked recently from Yeah, it's tanked about what 15-ish% just on the sort of first brand's news. And a lot of people are of the impression that this is going to keep tanking because people are now nervous that things that are supposed to be AAA rated really actually aren't AAA rated. For example, you look at what Bloomberg is reporting that investors are pulling cash from CLLO ETFs in the biggest outflow since April.
So CLLOs's are collateralized loan obligations. Apparently these were getting inflows of $421 million over the past year every single week. Last week $516 million outflow which is a delta of a billion. And I mean I was joking in the live stream this morning. I'm like man you know if I had to make a 2008 fund I would probably name it something like the Janice Henderson AAA rated CLLO ETF that actually exists.
Apparently, they invest in the highest rated CLLO bonds. These collateralized loan, it just so much reminds me of 2007 to 2008, but whatever. Uh, scary. This comes on top of obviously there's reporting that, you know, the longer this government shutdown goes on, the more economic damage we're going to cause to our GDP.
In 2008, sorry, in 2018, the government shutdown cost the government about point a little less than 0.1% of GDP per week. which means that uh every 10 weeks takes about 1% off of GDP. Uh and part of that is because we actually still have to pay people for not working because we back pay them but then a lot of these government workers who are fur furlowed they didn't do work.
So we lose twice like we're not saving the money because we still have to pay the people when they come back to work but then we don't get the productivity. So that's why GDP ends up taking a hit apparently. So 10 weeks I would guess I mean the shutdown started October 1st. I would guess this is probably going to be done by December 15th, which would be a 10-we shutdown.
Takes 1% off GDP. Not great. Now, AI has been propping up GDP above that, but now you're getting some red flags. I mean, look at what's happening to Google today. Google's down 5% because of the rumored release of Operator, which will be OpenAI's Well, it's down 3% now, so it's popping around, but there's talk that OpenAI is going to release the uh operator browser, and this is leading Google to sell off.
Now, in fairness, it's basically at all-time highs. So, it's like, who really cares? But part of this is because people are nervous that, you know, Google's search mode gets absorbed. Uh, but also consider this. Tele or TechCrunch had a great article. They talked about uh at GPT download growth is slowing down for the app.
They talk about uh daily average time spent on the app is down 22.5% since July and average sessions are down 20.7%. This indicates users are spending less time in GPT and are opening at fewer times per day. Now there's this idea that okay well maybe it's going down because people are getting answers more efficiently but it's not just that uh time is going down uh but it's also that the number of sessions are declining right and so the idea here is that because both are going down people are not only putting in fewer queries into GPT from its peak this summer but they're spending less time in the app.
Techrunch, they could be wrong, but they're kind of arguing that like maybe people have kind of found their way. The people who like Perplexity use it. The people who like Gemini, they use that. Uh the people who use GPT, they use that. But now we're capping out. And then the question is, if we're capping out over there, what does that mean longer term for the AI trend?
Well, now there's literally a report that Nvidia is going to issue loan guarantees to OpenAI, which is crazy because Nvidia is going to uh invest in OpenAI and what is it? For every gigawatt of power centers that are opened up, Nvidia is going to essentially unlock $10 billion to OpenAI. But now OpenAI is going to turn around and use that to buy Nvidia chips.
Some of these are going to be loans. Nvidia is now going to backs stop from what we're hearing some of Nvidia's lo some of OpenAI's loans. Now guaranteeing loans works great when the market is going up. But what happens when all of a sudden the market goes down and all of a sudden OpenAI stops buying chips or they stop generating revenue which mind you open AAI spending like a hundred you know billion dollars uh over the next five years on on investments probably honestly a lot more on infrastructure uh you're probably looking at closer to to half a you know trillion dollars uh is are sort of the projections from Sam Alman uh and so they generate revenue of about $13 billion ion dollar per year.
So you're losing money hand over fisk, not even including the investments. You include the investments, it's insane. But yeah, eight hours ago, Nvidia discusses loan guarantee for OpenAI, guaranteeing some of the loans OpenAI is planning to take out to build its own data centers. That's scary cuz it just means like we're getting to that phase where people are getting so nervous about credit markets and debt.
Part of it could be related to China that people are saying, "All right, if we're going to lend to OpenAI, we need a loan guarantee. We need Nvidia to guarantee it and let them put their $4 trillion, you know, market cap behind this." And it suggests we're kind of getting to the last innings of the run here.
Now, that's not to say that things are going to fall off a cliff anytime soon. You know, obviously the last couple days have been great. We were very optimistic in the Meet Kevin Alpha report on Friday and Monday. Less so today. Not very optimistic today because a lot of people get nervous before Netflix earnings.
It's very common. Still bearish MP material right now because we capped out at 100. And I'm a little under the weather too. Sorry about that. But uh hey, shout out though to the Meek Kevin Alpha board. Still putting it together. So if you want it, you still get it. Go to meet meekke.com, sign up, use coupon code Schumer Siesta.
Probably gonna expire that coupon code soon. I going to end until probably either before Thanksgiving or after Thanksgiving. Like right around then is when I think the shutdown ends because remember Republicans, this is my opinion, Republicans want to solve the healthcare issues because they don't want to be branded as the, you know, the face of, hey, you increased healthcare premiums for everyone.
And Republicans are like, oh, just pass a clean resolution. We'll debate healthcare later. They know Democrats won't go for that. So, they get their shutdown. They get the opportunity to delay jobs reports and data collection and fire a bunch of people, which is what Donald Trump wants. Donald Trump invites everybody for dinner to say, "Thank you for being so unified." That was yesterday.
To all the Senate Republicans and otherwise, which is not a surprise. And come around Thanksgiving before, right before or after, Trump will be like, "All right, we did the work we needed to do. Let's go ahead and give them their healthcare and it'll reopen." That's part of, you know, the Trump 4D chess.
But this is all coming at the same time that this China deal, I know Trump is talking really optimistically about it, but based on what China's saying, man, I'm much more nervous than they are or than than than markets are about uh about this China deal. Actually, don't think China benefits much from doing the deal with us because they want this to be us versus them.
They want people to partner with China because they make fun of our manufacturing capacity every chance they get. They make fun of our economy. They make fun of our government structure, our capitalistic structure. They make fun of everything they can to bag on us. So, I think they see us as the enemy.
That's scary. But the good news is you can get yourself an ally by going to meet Kevin.com. We'll see you there, folks. I appreciate y'all. And check out Reinvest. That's the doing business as for Houseack. So, just go to you're always welcome to invest. So you get or like a little hund00 million startup.
And uh you know we think uh kind of like Beyond Meat, you know, Beyond Meat was like $60 million. It got so low and we we looked at this in the uh uh in the Membership. We're like, man, this has meme potential. Like his revenue keeps going down, but it has meme potential. Dude, the thing like two and a halfxed.
It's crazy. But anyway, uh I think, you know, we're we're a little small cap with really good assets. $80 million of uh of assets, real estate, cash, uh no bank debt, a little bit of bond debt, and u convertible. Uh and we're really excited. So, if you want to check it out, go see our uh AI website now, which is really cool, too, with what we're going to be launching soon here.
So, go check that out over at reinvest.com or just go to houseack.com. It'll redirect you. Thanks, folks.
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