저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
금리 인상 기대가 금 가격(4,410)과 달러지수(101)를 떠받치지만, 실질금리는 인플레이션 상승으로 하락할 것이라 주장. 경기·주택시장 약세로 금리 인상은 불가능하며 주식시장은 더 약해야 한다고 봄. 5월 무역적자 확대(상품적자 1,065억 달러)는 관세로 해결되지 않는 구조적 문제이며, 부채 주도 소비와 제조업 쇠퇴가 지속된다고 비판.
다듬은 글
Gold traders believe this. I think this is the main reason why gold is still worth 4.4100. This is due to expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates. The economy is weak. The housing market is weak. The last thing the markets could endure is a rate hike. In fact, this is the main reason why the rate hike was canceled altogether.
But the goods deficit was $106.5 billion . This is a huge amount. One of the worst commodity shortages we've ever had. Trump should solve this with tariffs. If our trading partners can now use artificial intelligence to perform services that were previously performed by Americans, then those Americans will be out of a job.
We have a deficit because the public wants something. You know, the public wants healthcare. No, this is not the government's job. People say: well, people want housing. Well, how will they get housing from the government? The government has no housing. Elizabeth Warren said that the big beautiful bill is the rich stealing from the middle class and the poor.
You have to do something. The Fed can't just talk about raising rates. She will have to really raise them. And if this does not happen, then the remnants of trust in the Fed will disappear. So the markets should be weaker. Stock markets should be much weaker right now because of this threat. Unless no one believes it.
But gold traders believe. I think this is the main reason why gold is still at 4.4100. This is due to expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates. That's why the dollar index is at 101. The dollar has risen on expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates. If this does not lead to an increase, it will be tantamount to a decrease .
In fact, it will be a big decrease. Even if they raise it, it will be a decrease because they will not raise as much as inflation is rising. So real interest rates will fall. I've been discussing this point of view for months on this podcast . Investors do n't seem to understand this. But it doesn't matter what the Fed does with rates, because even if we get three 25 basis point rate hikes, it will be 75 basis points.
This is nothing. Inflation will be much higher than expected. And so real rates will fall even if nominal rates rise. But the problem is that we have so much debt . The economy, the job market...I discussed how bad the employment numbers we got, uh, on Thursday were on my last podcast. But the labor market is weak.
The Fed continues to threaten to raise rates, but markets are acting as if the warning no longer has any consequences. Peter Schiff argues that even a few 3/4 point rate hikes will still leave real interest rates negative if inflation accelerates faster. This gap, he says, helps explain why gold remains resilient despite a stronger dollar and hawkish rhetoric.
Investors should focus on purchasing power, not on underlying interest rates. The economy is weak. The housing market is weak. Uh, and the last thing you know the markets could endure is a rate hike. In fact, this is the main reason why the rate hike was canceled altogether. That's why when Pal was president, they lowered interest rates.
This wasn't just to try to, you know, help re-elect Biden or elect Chloe Harris. This was because banks started to fail. This was because the economy was in jeopardy due to the huge amount of debt we have, and our debt problem was getting worse. In fact, look at the trade deficit that just came out.
We got the May, no, June trade deficit report , there was a single trade deficit , the May deficit, and we had a huge increase compared to the previous month, a 42% increase in the trade deficit. The previous month was 54.66 billion, and May was 77.6 billion. This is actually a little less than the markets expected.
So the markets were expecting huge growth, and we got huge growth, and this huge growth was driven by both a 3.2% drop in exports and a 3.3% increase in imports. So the situation worsened on both sides . And actually, if you just look at the merchandise trade deficit for May, because we have a services surplus, but the goods deficit was $106.5 billion .
This is a huge amount. One of the worst commodity shortages we've ever had. Trump should fix this with tariffs. The trade deficit is growing, while politicians continue to insist that the economy remains fundamentally strong. According to Peter Schiff, the sharp increase in the trade deficit reflects a structural weakness that tariffs alone cannot solve.
Rising imports, coupled with weaker exports, suggest that domestic demand is being supported by rising debt rather than productive growth. Schiff argues that this combination gradually erodes long-term purchasing power. Peter Schiff goes on to explain why this growing trade imbalance could force policymakers to make increasingly difficult monetary choices.
And again, I've said this from the beginning that tariffs won't work, and they haven't worked. They didn't work during Trump's first term, and they're not working during his second. During his first term, he campaigned on reducing the deficit, the trade deficit. However, the trade deficit has reached record highs during Trump's presidency.
I predicted this would happen. I said that tariffs would have no effect, that the trade deficit would continue to worsen, because tariffs did not fight the disease, they fought the symptom. And by doing so, they allowed the disease to worsen. The same thing happened this time. These tariffs did not lead to a revival of production.
The manufacturing decline continues throughout Trump's term, and we will continue to become increasingly dependent on foreign manufacturing. And by the way, artificial intelligence will initially be of great importance in the service sector. Many services that America now exports.
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