저자: Kevin · 외국인
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로빈후드 인기 탭(top movers)에 오른 종목을 개인 투자자들이 대거 매수하는 현상을 설명하고, 니콜라(Nikola)를 사례로 든다. 니콜라는 워런트 가격 괴리, 공매도 비용 과다, 유통 주식수 비중(약 6.4%) 낮음, 파이프 투자자 주식 52.5백만주의 재매도 등전 위험 신호를 든다. 다만 자신이 전문가가 아니며 니콜라 주식을 보유·공매도하지 않는다고 명시하고, 특정 방향 매매를 권하지 않는다고 말한다.
다듬은 글
hey everyone meet Kevin here if you've ever bought stock on the trading platform of Robin Hood or you've ever been interested in even owning stocks or maybe you own some stocks in another company like even we bowl or TD Ameritrade and maybe you use Robin Hood to follow some trends there's something extremely important that I want to show you and when I show you this what I show you has the potential of saving you hundreds of thousands of dollars over your lifetime if you plan to continue to be an investor this is somewhat coming from something very complicated but in this video I'm going to make this as simple as possible but I do want to give you that disclaimer upfront because I encourage you to watch the video all the way through this time I rarely say this I wouldn't skip around in this video because it all builds on everything and this is big I mean this is probably one of the biggest things that I could possibly put out as a bombshell in the stock market so let's get into this and if you're interested in this sit tight okay buckle up but first let me just make a quick note with Thor's hammer here if you want to free stocks especially since a bunch of people are about to lose a bunch of money make sure to use the link down below for weeble to get two free stocks when you deposit just $100 remember deposit $100 weeble and get two free stocks worth up to $1400 and that life insurance okay all that said here's the scoop how many of you have heard about the SEC well probably many of you and you're like seriously Kevin you're gonna bore me nope hold on the Security and Exchange Commission we've heard of them before okay that's good probably most of us I'm guessing you know 80% plus of us have heard about the SEC or at least we knew there was some regulatory body for stocks right okay hold that thought how many of you have heard about an S PAC how about a pipe in relation to stocks my guess is probably 2% of you have heard about those things and that's okay that's not to make you feel bad but it serves a really big purpose for what we're about to talk about an S PAC is a special purpose acquisition company sounds complicated right almost as complicated as a pipe a pipe is a private investment into public equity like Oh Kevin seriously is this gonna be one of those videos where like I just pass out at the end because it's so complicated no let's go to the simple stuff but keep those things in mind because it's B gonna become very relevant okay here we go first thing I want to do is pop open Robin so let's go ahead and change angles here let's get Robin Hood up on screen here we go we've got Robin Hood under the search tab there's this little section called top movers and this top mover section gives us all a heads up as to which stocks are having the biggest swings upwards or downwards for example here's the bankrupt company Hertz oh look its up twenty eight point six four percent well that almost kind of makes me want to go buy some Hertz because if it's up twenty eight point six percent it must be a good company right yeah it's also a company that filed bankruptcy and this is not a video about Hertz but what's fascinating is when a stock shows up on this top mover section a lot of people tend to add that stock to their Robin Hood portfolio in fact take a look at this research right here that actually shows you how many people do just that Robin Hood had about two thousand seven hundred thirteen people who owned or held shares in Hertz as of March 16th well Hertz then frequently showed up on this top movers trending tab on Robin Hood and that was March 16 now over here on June 12th we have one hundred seventy thousand seven hundred people holding shares of Hertz and their Robin wood platform that is over a hundred seventy thousand people own shares in a bankrupt company with the Robin Hood app okay that's fine but what's the interesting takeaway from this is the run up after Hertz shows up on the trending page what's another example of this and then don't worry we're starting off slow but we're getting do some big bombshells here hold on and it's not these charts this is the basic who groundwork we're going through look at this Nicola as of June fourth we have nine thousand two hundred people who bought into Nicola that's June fourth Nicola motors right is it the next Tesla this and don't worry this video is not to try to rah-rah-rah Bagon Nicola or Bagon Hertz or whatever that would no that's been done too many times before okay hold on here we go a hundred thirty-seven thousand users now hold Nicola as of June eleventh which means we've literally seen this skyrocketing of people holding Nicola shares in the Robin Hood platform after guess what Nicola showed up on the trending tab multiple times on the Robin Hood app okay interesting so basically there's this relation between a lot of people on Robin Hood getting into a stock maybe because it's on the trending tab we don't know that for sure but we're kind of connecting dots here right because there's a lot of thinking that says well come on Robin Hoods is not like a huge community right I mean it's not like not like all the hedge funds in the world and all these institutional investors is certainly not as Vegas like a TD Ameritrade or Schwab and I mean no skin off like not trying to bag on Robin Hood they're great and they're growing but I mean come on how much impact could Robin Hood investors have on the stock market right yeah well we need a little bit more information to determine that so let's think for a moment we saw that people in Nicola that people holding Nicola shares went from nine thousand two hundred to a hundred thirty seven thousand over the course of a few days over those same few days Trevor the CEO a former CEO and founder of Nicola mentioned that three hundred thousand new investors into Nicola Motors had been buying their shares which means it's quite possible that over thirty five percent of people who have been buying Nicola shares based on what Trevor said are actually using robin hood' way that's that's actually a lot okay well here's the big problem and you can't really fault Robin Hood for this but we're gonna bring it up because it is a big issue all right but who cares what's the problem with that maybe Robin Hood users see something the rest of the world doesn't you know this is a great opportunity it's a company with great growth prospects it's got a massive market cap bigger than Ford I mean why would you not buy into Nikola Motors well we're not gonna talk to again about hydrogen or the semi trucks are all that stuff in this video we're talking about Robin Hood in this video and the problem with Robin Hood's trending tab is that it could lead to a frenzy of buying without a care for any of the fundamentals of the actual value of the company or the growth prospects for the company now not that big of a deal right I mean come on let's let's be real how many of us when we go to buy Apple stock or Tesla stock actually go to the SCC's website and pull up the earnings report most of us don't right let's just be real it's totally fair to say that but those are also very established companies right they're not in bankruptcy and they didn't just IPO okay I mean that's fair so let's keep going for a second with Nicola and see what Nikola has to do with how terribly dangerous that trending tab is let's dig deep because we're about to see some crazy bombshells that I've never seen before in the stock market the easiest way to start with this is by talking about some red flags in order to pull up some red flags it's helpful to look at a few charts so let's go ahead and pull those things up okay here we go the first chart is that Nicola obviously it was selling for around $21 a share and then it's had its run-up you know which sold fir in the mid 30s and then it shot up to the 60s and then it shot up to 78 dollars or 79 dollars in after-hours it went up to $90 and right now it's selling for $64 a share okay sixty four dollars a share maybe that's reasonable you know the company is growing it's a growth company hey a lot of people just doubled their money some people even tripled their money right fine fair true but what's this and this is promise you this is just one of the red flags so this is why this video is gonna be a bombshell at least in my opinion this is big so this is just one part of this this is something called a Nicola warrant okay well what does that even mean look it's selling for twenty two dollars and seventy five cents well a Nicola warrant allows you to five years from now buy one share of Nicola at a cost of $11.50 okay so what that means is five years from now if I buy one Nicola warrant for twenty two dollars and seventy five cents I will pay an additional $11.50 and I will be the rightful owner of one share of Nicola for thirty four dollars and twenty five cents that makes sense right but wait a minute why is the share price today $64 usually when you have warrants like this the warrants would be selling for somewhere around fifty three dollars right because I'm fifty three dollars he had the eleven dollars in your basically at sixty four there'd be this parody in the market they'd be similar in price why is there such a big difference here is this is this like a sudden crazy opportunity to arbitrage this stock and make money where nobody else is seeing it this is instead what I call a big fat red flag so that we're gonna call red flag number one well that's just number one let's get into some more red flags and then let's put the pieces of the puzzle together because so far that's interesting like if that hasn't piqued your interest that you could basically buy this warrant for like thirty dollars off the actual value then you obviously don't care about money because the bottom line of that red flag right there is for some reason Nicolas shares are thirty dollars more per share than what you could pay if you were just buying the warrants Oh fun fact you can't buy the warrants on Robin Hood hmm interesting keep that in mind thanks Robin Hood red flag number two let's say I wanted to short Tesla stock that is I thought Tesla was going to decline in value and let's say I was right but not only was I right let's say the company dropped 50% in value and let's say I shorted the company with three thousand shares I bought 30 put options on Tesla which basically meant i shorted three thousand shares worth of Tesla and then I was right by August the company had fallen 50 percent in value well guess how much money I would make net after option fees if I was right that Tesla is going to decline by August 50% if I did that with 3000 shares I would make 1 million dollars in profit that's pretty crazy right but it's also pretty crazy to think that somebody would be crazy enough to actually make a bet that Tesla is gonna be 50 percent cheaper in August I mean let's be real it's June July August that's two months in two months and a week I would guess that Tesla's gonna go down 50% in value I mean something crazy would have to have and then in that case if I made that bet I would deserve to get rewarded with a million dollars right well let's say I want to do the same exact thing with Nikola and I short the company 3000 shares that means if the company's value or the share value goes from $60 to $30 I would have been right the company would have gone down 50% in value and I should make money like in the Tesla example right well three thousand dollars or three thousand a dollar decline in the share price means I would make around ninety thousand dollars that sounds good but I got to pay for the option right what would the option cost me that is if I'm right and the company declines 50 percent in value well with Tesla made a million dollars here I'd make 90 thousand dollars - the option fees and the option fees for that contract are a hundred and six thousand dollars which means I would lose sixteen thousand two hundred dollars if I'm right that Nikola goes down 50 percent by August 21st that my friends is red flag number two stand by it gets way worse number three remember when Nikola went up to seventy to eighty dollars per share and $90 per share overnight why do you think Nikola a growing company didn't do what Madonna did the drug manufacturer when their company's stock value skyrocketed Madonna instantly sold shares so they could put more money into their pocket at a high valuation make sense a company developing a new drug I need some new cash Nikola they could probably use some cash to build the hydrogen and infrastructure they're trying to build right they didn't do that keep this in mind it's not gonna make complete sense yet but this is red flag number three and you're gonna see exactly why because you might be thinking in cells what they don't need to sell any shares there Nikola they're the best that's that's fine and I'm not here to argue with with that opinion it's totally fine but there's actually a more dark reason why they didn't in my opinion just my opinion some dude on YouTube so that's red flag number three might not seem like that big of a deal yet but stand by red flag number four according to the SEC Nikola has approximately 300 sixty million shares outstanding in fact I could show you exactly what the SEC says about the shares outstanding so we have three hundred sixty million shares of Nikola outstanding guess how many of those actually publicly trade well here it is public shareholders will own twenty three million shares wait a minute twenty three million divided by 360 million wait what yes only six point four percent of the total shares outstanding are actually trading and thirty to forty percent of the people who were trading and buying niccola of those three hundred thousand new account holders that Trevor mentioned are using Robin Hood so basically a huge amount of people on Robin Hood are trading a proportionately tiny portion of the outstanding stocks at the niccola corporation wait why are only six point four percent of the total shares outstanding and Nicolette's weird now in case you're wondering why it says here current Nikolas shareholders will own two hundred seventy six million shares what that means or refers to can actually be seen right here on this filing where you see that basically people like a Trevor Milton Mark Russell Kim Brady all these people they own almost two hundred million shares plus these other companies here so a lot of the shares that are outstanding are not in the public hands right now instead what's really in the public hands is basically what they bluntly say here in this report and this is from May 8th the public stockholders will own 23 million shares okay got it so the public has access to the 23 million shares because on some websites like the Wall Street Journal or Market Watch you could see that the public float is higher like around 153 million shares which is interesting so if you've got commentary on that I'd love to hear in the comments but it's something to pay attention to in the SEC filing we see 23 million shares of vecto IQ common stock representing 6.4 percent and that has obviously now been named and KLA nikola all right let's keep that in mind so we've got a very very small percentage that the public actually currently has access to let's keep moving on so now we've got some real red flags out of the way we talked about those warrants that are totally mispriced for some odd reason we talked about the fact that it's really expensive to short the company right now and usually that's because a lot of institutions are shorting the company that is a lot of smart people are shorting the company that's a red flag we talked about Nicola not raising money when the stock was at all-time highs and we talked about the fact that the public only currently has access to 23 million shares being somewhat of a red flag especially when Robin Hood traders seem to be representing around thirty to forty percent of the new buyers of the company now let's talk about the bombshell but I want to be very very clear I'm a dude on YouTube I could be missing something very important here I don't know but if you use Robin Hood and you use or buy Nicola shares what I'm sharing with you if it's something that you haven't seen or noticed before it should be a red flag as to why you want to be very careful using that Robin Hood trending tab because there are so many weird things that could happen with these companies that just IP owed with these speculative companies that skyrocket up and down a hundred percent in a day they're usually a lot of things that we don't understand that are going on so I want to make this very clear before I drop the bombshell I do not know everything that's going on I don't understand everything as well as I should this is why I do not own any Nikolas shares this is also why I am NOT shorting the company even after what I'm about to show you I am NOT shorting the company because I just don't know enough but this is the same that you've got to be careful with the Robin Hood because watch what you could potentially be getting exposed to are you ready for him let's go on May 8 Nicola registered their prospectus with the Security and Exchange Commission remember I asked you earlier what an S pack is and what a pipe well vecto IQ was an S pack and they created fifty 2.5 million shares known as pipe shares right private investments into public equity complicated right all you really got to know right now is that there are 50 2.5 million shares that were bought for $10 a share in niccola and this is all really complicated hedge fund crap this is like the rich people invest in this stuff and it makes a lot more sense to them right but we know that fifty two point five million pipe shares were sold at $10 per share okay well that's interesting because if we now pull this page up in the SEC report we'll actually see that reference this is from they May 8th filing and take a look at what happens with this all right so here we go this all looks pretty boring right like who's the crazy guy that would actually go through and read all this well certainly not any of us using Robin Hood here we go let's read you this part right here Veck doe IQ agrees to sell to the subscribers 52 point 5 million shares of vecto IQ common stock which is now nicola right known as pipe shares that's what I explained to you for a price of $10 per share with a total price of 525 million ten times 52 point 5 that makes sense okay well following the agreement that exists the company which is now nicola agrees that within 45 days after they basically IPO the proposed transaction okay basically the IPO 45 days thereafter the company agrees to register a statement registering the resale of these pipe shares through something known as a resale registration statement i told you this would get complicated but don't worry i'm gonna simplify this exactly what this means so basically 45 days after may 8 vecto IQ now nicola agrees to register the resale of 52 point five million shares of Nicola so now simply put this means that Nicola by June 20th which is that 45-day mark will register an additional fifty two point five million shares that are now available for sale so let's now think about that for a moment if you're a pipe investor that is you're somebody who somehow had access to the pipe right this private investment and you bought these Nicola shares which were then called vecto iQue shares that are now Nicola shares you bought them at $10 a share so think about that okay really like really picture yourself like it you're your life insurance and weeble hammer and go okay Kevin alright I'm listening now like you lost me with that black and white crap but okay I got it okay so I bought a share of Nicola $10 okay well it's now trading for $60 which means your $10 turned into $60 which means you 6x to your money Wow man I'm feeling really good about myself then well what if about when it was at $70 or $80 or $90 in after-hours how do you think you're feeling about a company that has no revenue a fledgling company with a market cap bigger than Ford and an enterprise value a fraction of what the market is valuing it at and you own a bunch of pipe shares yet you're up like five - six - seven - eight X like you're probably like get me the heck out of here like let me sell heck you know what I'd be happy to dump these shares at 30 bucks a share because I've tripled my money you know what I'll not be greedy I'll dump these shares at $20 a share because I've doubled my money I'm still a hero even if I sell my pipe shares at $20 a share and the company's selling for $64 for $60 whatever it is now I'm still a hero so what happens when the SEC approves that resale registration statement the pipe investors have the right to sell fifty two point five million shares now have the option of flooding the market which let me qualify this and say look that doesn't mean they're all going to sell but if they do Nikolas share price is in for some really bad news but folks if right now the public only has access to six point four percent of all of the shares that exist for Nicola and all of a sudden you have this pipe investment group which is coming out with fifty two point five million shares in fact it was right here I didn't point it out to you earlier but it's right here the pipe investors will own fifty two point five million shares your all of a sudden potentially saying to the SEC hey we're gonna make this fourteen point six percent public which used to be six point four percent so now of a sudden we are two-and-a-half Xing the amount of shares that are available to the public it's not very good wait a second this means we can actually put the dots together now and I could still be wrong about this okay I get excited about things and then I'm wrong I want you to make your own conclusion you have to put the pieces of the puzzle together but if I were gonna put the pieces of the puzzle together wait a minute why is it that you could buy warrants for such a discount right now because the stock ain't gonna be selling for sixty dollars any more very soon hmm that's jaded but that answers why there's such a big spread in those warrants right now okay but what about the shorts why is it so expensive to short the company ah crap because the hedge funds have already priced in that this stock is way overvalued and every Robin Hood investor who's buying off the trending tabs about to get screwed no that's not good okay well well what about the the fact that the company's share price went up to 70 to $80 or $90 and the company didn't sell remember I told you that wasn't really clear that red flag number three like why wouldn't the company sell and raise money because pipe investors are people you want to do business with again in the future and remember how we did this analogy where I'm sitting here with the hammer I'm like ha I'm up like 6 X I'm up like 7 X this is awesome how would you feel if you're that guy who's up 6 x in it and you're like ah by June 20th I get to take my profit well Nicola what the heck you guys dumping shares on the market before us what are the ones who put you on the map and you're gonna dump shares before we can man we ain't don't business with you again think about it the pipe and the pipe investors got to get out first Nikola can't give them the big fat middle finger red flag number four fact that only 23 million of the 360 million shares are actually available for trading right now and given the fact that Robin Hood puts it on their trending tab and all of a sudden you get a hundred thirty thousand accounts accounts not shares accounts that now hold a ton Nikolas shares Robin Hood is disproportionately suggesting via the trending tab that people fly in to companies like Hertz that are bankrupting companies like Nikola and and again you can't really blame Robin Hood here I just this is a warning for you as a user of Robin Hood because did Robin Hood tell you about this did Robin Hood tell you that fifty two point five million pipe investors could potentially dump their shares now they might not this doesn't mean there's a guarantee that the share price is going to fall but fifty two point five million shares is a lot of shares at a strike price of ten dollars you got happy people selling the stock even if it's at fifteen dollars a share you got unhappy people if it's below ten dollars a share which I will say I talked to my buddy Jeremy at financial education he's like hey I'd buy it under ten dollars you know what those pipe investors probably would buy it under ten dollars as well because they've been buying it for ten dollars but anything over ten pere profit so Holy Smoke as guys this is something to pay attention to this to me is the big warning as to why you gotta be careful using something like Robin Hood and following the trends on Robin Hood there's a reason the shorts are so expensive there was no reason why the institutional investors who are trading warrants aren't valuing them any higher because that company's value in five years might just not be there the way we expect it to be right now so keep this in mind if you're a Robin Hood investor I'm not here to scare you I'm here to show you that we don't even know what we don't know and let me be really clear level one knowledge is on conscious incompetence you don't even know that you don't know I'm at level 2 which is conscious incompetence I know that I have no idea I am NOT claiming to understand all this stuff I don't know if the way I put the pieces of the puzzle together it makes sense I'm not shorting the company I'm not going to short the company I'm not going to buy the company at least at this point I haven't done any of that and I don't plan to I mean maybe if the company Falls to like $10 a share maybe I'll buy some at that point but I'll tell you and I'll make a video or whatever but really this video is designed to be a big fat warning for you we have to be aware of how little we're aware of especially with these spec companies final note it is also very important to recognize that hedge funds hedge things so even though they're pipe investors and they might have made a lot of profit they're also very likely to be the people shorting the same stock so that way they're kind of burning the candle at both ends of the stick which means if you own Nicola I'm not recommending that you sell and I'm not recommending you buy all I'm recommending is that or saying is that things could potentially be very crazy or volatile over the next few weeks because of this kind of stuff we don't know what's going to happen to the price we just know that some big changes are coming and there's some big red flags that could signal a lot of pain in the short term for the stock but that pain could go away and then the stock could continue to go up so I have no idea I just want to put this stuff out there so if you liked this insight I really encourage you to smash that like button share this with somebody you care about who owns Nicola shares probably or anybody who uses Robinhood and consider joining me in my programs link below get your life insurance because you're gonna need it after watching this video because it's stressful and gave you 2 free stocks with we but we need 2 possible hundred dollars ]
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