저자: Kevin · 외국인
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미국 2차 경기부양 협상 전망을 정리. 민주당 1,800쪽 Heroes Act(1,200달러 추가 지급, 실업수당 600달러 연장 등)에 대해 공화당은 약 1조 달러 규모와 책임면제 등을 쟁점으로 반대. 유튜버는 1,200달러 지급은 가능성이 높고(약 75% 수준 의견), 실업수당 등은 감액될 가능성이 있다고 봄. 개인 차원에서는 401k 대출, 모기지 forbearance, 임대료 협상, PPP 대출 등 활용을 권함. 자산 가격 직접 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
break down a recap of every bottom line you need to know about the next round of stimulus checks and the stimulus package that way you are completely up to date with all of the bottom lines that we've been researching and talking about for the past weeks so that way up until today you've got all of the bottom lines without all the little boring details in between so if you've been following along daily this would be a good refresher for you to connect the dots and if you haven't been following along this is going to catch you up as quickly as possible and quick reminder this video is sponsored by the links down below for some really really cool programs go check those out now I'm gonna go back to what I was doing first let me start by making sure that you're already taking advantage of the free money that you can already get from stimulus package number one there's zero speculation about stimulus package number one so you may as well make sure you're getting that free money one of the free things that you can do is you can borrow against your 401k retirement account you can borrow up to $100,000 and as long as you pay it back within three years you don't actually have to pay any penalties which is a phenomenal it gives you this amazing flexibility with your retirement account obviously check with your CPA but this could be an interesting way if you've been thinking about buying a house or getting into homeownership could be an interesting way to borrow against your 401k nolte free and actually get into homeownership you've gotten more money that you can draw from now penalty-free if you're a tenant now is the best time to negotiate with your landlord on paying back rent or reducing your rent as soon as we get further and further away from the pandemic and the fear that's happening right now your ability to negotiate will become much harder negotiating is best done when there is fear remember that always remember that that is the most important rule I think you can remember when it comes to money in your life negotiate when there's blood in the streets so to speak and that's not to be insensitive it's just to make it very very clear that the best time to strike a deal with somebody is when somebody else is feeling like there could be more loss coming in the future so if your attendant heat up your landlord get a rent reduction agreed a sign a law or you know come up with some kind of payback plan that's going to work because the last thing you want to do as a tenant is not be paying your rent right now and not doing anything and negotiating with your landlord at all because once the eviction ban opens up you might get the an eviction letter and then you might end up in court and you don't want to do that you don't want to do that because if you get a judgment from court guess what you end up getting your credit screwed and it's gonna be a lot harder for you to build wealth and long run so you have leverage now but your ability to negotiate becomes less and less and less the more this pandemic becomes less severe the more people become more comfortable with it so it's you're incentivized to negotiate now next if you are a homeowner and you do not have a emergency fund at all or you don't have a large emergency fund I highly encourage you to consider taking mortgage forbearance this also applies to you if you are a real estate investor your credit will likely take a temporary hit that's because they put a little notation on your credit that your account is in forbearance I actually have not taken any mortgage forbearance but because I made a video on mortgage forbearance and I called one of my mortgage companies on a rental property I have that note on my credit score now I have not I've made all of my payments and so my credit score dropped about 35 points and has actually since completely bounced back now maybe that's because somehow through their algorithms they're realizing that I'm actually making my payments but the point is if you think you want to build up an emergency fund or build up more of a cushion in case things get weird or your pay gets reduced or you just want to build up money so you can in the future go buy another property or invest or better your financial position in my opinion you ought to consider taking mortgage forbearance and obviously read up on the terms with your bank but most banks are now allowing you to move any payments that you missed to the end of your loan term so check especially if you have a conventional loan this is basically free money for you because most of you probably have between 20 to 30 years left on your mortgage if you have a mortgage and the reason that's free money is because if you take the money you save and you invested it even into like the S&P 500 there's a good chance you might be able to do double that money within the next seven to fifteen years which basically means you're paying off that money you owe in 25 to 30 years now with free money think about that let that one sink in all right but make sure you check with your lenders and read the rules and the options they have I have now if you're thinking about buying you want to keep in mind that you're going to have to have made your payments for three months after taking forbearance so that's kind of how you get back into the buying mode if you did end up taking forbearance alright that's out of the way if you are a business the Eid L the idle that is the emergency injury disaster loan or that grant program may open up again this upcoming week so if you missed out on your ability to apply for that $1,000 grant per employee which you are your own employee so if you have a side house or small business you have at least one employee that's you you basically could qualify for this additional one thousand dollar stimulus check per employee and plus they might offer you a 30-year business loan that you have to pay back you do not have to accept that 30-year business loan if you take the 30-year business loan you have to pay that back over thirty years its amortized over thirty years and you should be using that for working capital for your business if you decide to take the grant that is free money that you do not have to pay back now if you have not yet applied for a paycheck protection program loan there's about a hundred thirty billion dollars available it's basically a big pot of free money and you should go take it now this is not sponsored but I encourage you go to cabbage calm and apply you do have to attest that your income has been affected by the pandemic so if legitimately your income has been going up you probably shouldn't apply now the Treasury Department says you're not going to get audited if you apply for less than a two million dollar loan program but they can also change the rules anytime they want okay so do the right thing now last thing on the old thing and then let's get into the new package if you're self-employed and your income has gone down and you were laid off and you have not yet applied for unemployment pay realize you are sitting on a treasure chest of free money you should be taking this as long as your current income is under the threshold to where you qualify for state unemployment you would also qualify for a $600 weekly federal boost retroactively so if you haven't taken advantage of the federal pandemic unemployment assistance payments yet and your state unemployment and your self-employed you're working half as much as you used to and even with the income you're making now you'd still qualify within the partial unemployment rules you should consider applying because you're possibly leaving a bunch of money on the table if you don't go to your state's unemployment insurance website to learn more and you really want to look for pandemic unemployment assistance payments those are the details you're looking for that's the $600 boost well the federal version of that so look for the F P UA all right moving on to the next round number one Democrats passed an 1800 page Heroes Act and that provides more stimulus relief including another round of twelve hundred dollar stimulus checks plus up to twelve hundred dollars for up to three dependents so if you've got a stimulus check last time you'd get another stimulus check and this time instead of your dependents getting a $500 they would get $1,200 for up to a three dependents regardless of their age which also means that college students who should have gotten a stimulus check last time but didn't because they were let's say over 17 and they were claimed as a dependent it's like seriously because I was independent I didn't get stimulus well they would now be eligible for a five hundred dollar retroactive stimulus check if the heroes Act passes the heroes Act would also extend these $600 federal unemployment assistance payments which are currently expiring July 31st all the way to January 31st of 2021 and possibly up through March 31st of 2021 depending on when you applied now this bill also includes tax deductions money for a date money and daycare excuse me for essential workers relief for homelessness more money for food stamps and makes many other changes including changes to the cannabis industry prisons tax benefits and a more it also provides relief a to state and local governments and gives more money to the SBA's the ideal program which is that grant and loan program we talked about but before we get carried away with this we got to talk about the elephant in the room in this case those are the Republicans and that is not me suggesting that I'm taking sides with Republicans or Democrats I'm just saying that right now the Senate has received the bill that the Democrats passed which I just described to you and they're sitting on it while they wait and see for more economic data their current complaints are that Republicans want to see liability protections for businesses like restaurants who open up so that way they don't get sued if somebody goes and orders food and then leaves with dessert and kovat no liability pour of it protections for businesses are in the heroes Act which is the big 18 hundred page bill that Democrats put together I was personally shocked when I saw that and maybe Democrats are doing that because they're trying to they know they're going to have a negotiation with Republicans so they're not making it easy on them it's an interesting POV but it remains to be seen why that was not included the first time around although we do know that Democrats don't want liability protections for businesses they want people to have the right to sue now and I think that frustrates a lot of people and a lot of businesses but we'll see how that plays out because it also makes sound like both I see both sides okay now Republicans reply to this and say hey look we're not saying everybody should just have blanket lawsuit immunity what we're saying is if as long as businesses prevent the spread of the corona virus as much as possible because they do masks or hand sanitizer or they have you know safety rules whatever they have some sort of procedures as long as these businesses comply with that then people should not be able to sue those businesses if they end up getting sick with kovat now if businesses are negligent and it's like well we have rules that say we're supposed to use hand sanitizer and wear masks but then they don't do either of those things and then a customer gets sick then the Republicans are saying the customer would still be able to sue that business okay next issue Republicans believe the Democrats three trillion dollar bill is too expensive they say it should cost closer to one trillion dollars either way there's a still massive numbers Obama's stimulus package in 2009 was about 880 billion dollars which is less than one trillion dollars just to give you a little bit of money perspective these are both mass numbers number three we Republicans are saying that we shouldn't extend unemployment of $600 because it makes people less likely to go to work because 60 to 80 percent of people currently receiving the six hundred dollars per week and unemployment are actually making more money than they would be making if they were working and they say that that disincentivizes people from going back to work to which a lot of people say I'd like to go back to work but I don't have a job to go back to because either my company is not open or they're not rehiring or whatever so you should continue unemployment because like I can't go back if I wanted to it's not that I'm being disincentivized I'm number four Republicans say we want targeted money is what they say and instead of just sort of what what they're calling a democratic wish list that gives money to everybody more broadly I think what they're really trying to say is they want a short version of an eighteen hundred page bill that only gives money to the things they care about but given that Democrats control the house even though the Senate controls the is controlled by Republicans and Republicans control the White House they can't do anything without the house so they're going to have to have this sort of balancing act even though they got two thirds over here and you know Democrats have one third they need to negotiate something because nothing's gonna happen unless they all agree to something all right that brings up this the Senate has ideas in the works in terms of how to solve these issues one of those solutions is a solution that would give people two hundred fifty to four hundred fifty dollars per week if they went back to work through a certain date tentatively that would be July 31st but this bill might not get passed by then so it would be some date maybe it would be that January 1st 31st a deadline or the March 31st a deadline of next year but basically giving people money to go back to work a little bit of a boost back to work boost another option is hey if you get off unemployment maybe you could have a couple extra weeks of unemployment pay while you're going back to work which is just another version of an unemployment boost now all of these things so far they don't help people who aren't working like people on disability or Social Security retirement which there are a lot of people in America who are retired so that's very frustrating to a lot of folks but the good news is Republicans have not bagged on the idea of a $1,200 stimulus check we haven't heard any indications of Republicans saying no way not happening we've heard Republicans say oh we don't like money for the cannabis industry your salt tax deductions changing or money for food stamps we've heard things like that 1,200 all the stimulus checks haven't been mentioned but we'll talk more about that in a second and Trump has some ideas of his own he has ideas I can let's give people tax benefits so that way they go to restaurants and they go on vacations again maybe travel credits if you go on a plane or or you go travel within the United States so that way I mean think about it if you travel in the United States you're actually spreading more money through the economy you're going to a different area you're spending in that economy that makes sense okay I get that but let's be real it only makes sense if we actually have money to spend which again reiterates the $1,200 stimulus check right you can't really do tax deductions of people don't have money to spend even though you got certain economist like well people savings went up and stuff come on folks even if people savings ones up there are there's a lot of uncertainty out there and still most of us don't have money to spend right now because we got laid off or furloughed or our incomes went down because of the roni rona and for those of us in the comments why do you say roni roni Kevin it's because it when I actually say the word too many times YouTube ends up categorizing me into some roni role in a category and and it's bad okay YouTube blame YouTube not me Trump is also talking about a payroll tax deduction which means you would take home between 7.5 to 15% more in your paycheck depending on how it was structured each week it would probably be closer to 7.5% but it could be up to 15 ish percent and I'm rounding a little bit here and you would receive this benefit for all the money that you made up to about a hundred thirty eight thousand dollars and then you'd see receive a smaller benefit if you made more than that I'm just roughly looking at how payroll taxes are defined the details of that will come later Trump has also suggested a possible capital gains tax cut which would help people who sell real estate short-term or who sell options contracts and stocks or who sell stocks in general in the short term which remember if you want two free stocks link down below get two free stocks it's right next to the link for life insurance so if you want a really good life insurance link down below it's inexpensive it's easy to sign up for you click the link and you get a quote in as little as five minutes and you could sign up for an app we'll pay for it with the two free stocks make sure you deposit $100 because ll right let's move on Joe Biden has suggested increasing the capital gains tax so this is a little bit different from what Trump has suggested now Democrats have also some Democrats have also suggested this idea about a $2,000 per month stimulus plan or maybe even giving people money retroactively Lee for the last few months - how as a way to sort of help stimulate the economy the issue with this is this has not gained any traction other than you know co-sponsors of people on the left it hasn't gained any traction from Republicans and it hasn't even gained enough a track or any attention really from leaders within the Democrat community in the house to actually even consider including it in their 1800 page bill in other words if the $2,000 per month stimulus check had a chance it would have probably appeared in the heroes Act and it would actually be at the front of discussions now but it's not then we know that the Federal Reserve is also pushing Congress and the White House to do more now when would we potentially see this next stimulus package well it's possible that we'll see a draft or more ideas about this package over the next 30 days but serious negotiations on the bill likely won't take place until July 21st which seems crazy and frustrating because right now it's June 13th which means we're really looking at five weeks before we have more real insights on this and on July 31st the unemployment boost of $600 expires so we kind of have this like 10-day window where we're expecting to see more negotiations and and of course some kind of bill that we can actually review and have more real detail song now we're gonna see right now we're just trying to put pieces of the puzzle together now there are two things that could happen here number one Republicans can write an entirely new bill if Republicans write an entirely new bill this substantially decreases the odds of us getting another $1200 stimulus check and also her the odds of getting $600 per week aka the $2,400 per month in unemployment pay I'd say the odds of Republicans writing a new bill though is only about 25% likely I'll explain why in a moment what's more likely is that the Republicans are going to counter the Democrats on liability protections possibly money for prison salt tax deductions the cannabis industry and unemployment insurance payments is $600 a week and food stamps that is we have this list of maybe five to six items that Republicans might counter with they might even then include some things that Trump wants like the trub payroll tax deduction and some credits for traveling and put that in so really we have a short list of about eight things which we could really put on a post-it note I'd say that this is 75% likely given the fact that Congress is only going to have about ten days after their July recess to negotiate and pass something into law I would say this is again most likely 75% likely and we're gonna have this short list of things that are going to be negotiated and then we'll probably see the bulk of the heroes Act again passed again 75% likely that's my opinion now if Republicans counter the odds are in my opinion that's $1200 stimulus check is likely to stay because it has not been the subject of debate at all over the past few weeks since the heroes Act was introduced and Republicans and Donald Trump have expressed openness to more direct payments and Trump even went as far as directly mentioning that he would be open to another round of stimulus payments directly to people we also have Republicans saying they want people to have money and they want to incentivize growth they want Donald Trump's rocket ship to be huge and be able to take off and that is we want enough fuel in the economy to actually be able to lift off in our recovery rather than try to get up and then fall over now a payroll tax deduction an extra duck tax deductions would obviously be on this list as well now these changes like you know we could write those things out on a post-it note but realistically it probably be putting a little amendment at the end of the 18 hundred page bill that would make changes of maybe two pages worth of text that really isn't that difficult to negotiate and I think that c have I don't think they're that far apart especially since both sides have indicated that they want more stimulus in some form Kevin Hassett went as far as saying it's a hundred percent likely now you might think well why don't they just write a two-page bill then like why wouldn't Republicans just put a two-page bill together and and then push those two things through you know or the thing the eight things on that post-it note why don't they just pass that in the form of a two-page bill then and that's because again the Senate needs the Democrats on board they can't pass a bill without Democrats and guess what happens if it's the Senate writes a new page a new two-page bill Democrats are going to rally against or rally for rather every single person who just got cut out of the heroes Act which means firefighters doctors nurses state and local governments essential workers people on retirement people on disability you supposedly who are supposed to get these stimulus checks and people on food stamps everyone who benefits from the heroes Act that 1800 page bill would just instantly get cut out if the Senate writes a new page bill a narrowed bill would very likely be political suicide for Republicans it would create such a massive rallying cry for Democrats especially right before an election that would help so many people that the Republican and it helps so many people who are a rapport with in a Republican base that the Republicans if they push through an error or bill would really be putting their election on this next bill and it could potentially lead to a democratic sweep this November which means Biden's president Democrats control the House Democrats control the Senate and then they push through whatever the heck they want I'm not taking sides but I just wanted to make this very clear I think the Senate writing their own bill when they need the Democrats is probably a really bad idea it could happen we know that Republicans want less money spent on this bill but they could have less money spent without writing an entirely new bill we'll see this is why I believe Republicans are more likely to what to appease all groups and counter on things that they can easily defend countering on that's why we see so much talk about countering you know we shouldn't be incentivizing people to stay home we should be helping people try to get back to work and making sure the economy is stimulated fine I don't think anybody would blame them for trying to make tweaks that's a negotiation that's reasonable but thrashing the other bill I think is politically and massively risky so we'll stick to those eight things on the post-it note right the liability protections payroll protections you know maybe some deductions maybe a back to work boost maybe some form of unemployment the stimulus checks will be in there and all of the other things that are within the bill just modifying some things this gives everyone a win for the election Trump gets to say hey look I got the payroll tax cut through and some deductions Republicans win with liability protections and Democrats win on the stimulus check and food stamps and other benefits heck Trump and some of the Republicans will also take credit for the stimulus checks and food stamps and some Democrats will take protect you know take credit for well look how we perfectly crafted the liability protections basically everybody will be able to go back to their districts in September and October and and do speeches and rallies about how great they have worked on this heroes bill and it ended up getting through the way they wanted it that's the way the message will be crafted this is why I believe the $1,200 stimulus check is highly likely however some form of reduction will very likely come to the twelve or $2,400 per month stimulus which is that $600 per week unemployment pay there you go there you have a complete summary of everything that's going on and if you appreciated this summary check out the life insurance on the link down below get your two free stocks with Weibo and check out my amazing programs on the psychology of money and stocks real estate investing if you want to be a real estate agent there's a program for you and if you own rental property there is a do-it-yourself rental property management and renovations program as well use the coupon code in the link down below and then you can bundle up after you check out for one of your program oh and if you want some more content go check out Lauren's channel it's linked in the description as well Lauren posted a vlog a couple days ago and she would appreciate your support it has to do with when our second child was born and a little oopsies I made alright folks thank you so much again we'll see you soon
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