저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
인도 시장과 거시 환경에 대해 신중한 단기 입장을 밝힘. 유가 급등(100달러대)과 루피 약세로 단기 리스크를 경계하나, 기업 실적 모멘텀과 국내 자금 유입(SIP, 국내 기관)에 힘입어 장기 전망은 낙관적. 동부 인도(서벵골 등) 정치 변화가 성장에 긍정적일 수 있다고 봄. 10개월 단위에서는 신중하고 10년 단위에서는 낙관적이라고 정리하며, 10% 조정 가능성도 언급.
다듬은 글
But we can't let you go without only discussing the numbers and we'll try to squeeze in a couple of more questions, but what about the market setup, sir? I mean crude oil prices have just spiked up. You know, the bulls would have been looking forward to a longer weekend and you know, earnings have been pretty okay, but suddenly that war fear has come back.
Crude has spiked, the rupee is at a fresh low. How are you reading the Indian markets as of now? Are we in for a difficult period? See, it is because of the resilience, because of great management of the fiscal monetary. This is the great time. All the good things they have done is paying off. Our forex management, I mean the economic managers, they have to be congratulated for the kind of resilience we have created despite literally poor country in the sense that two and a half $3,000 per capita.
See, right now who is suffering and any kind of this global crisis, who suffers? The poorest of the poor. So, we are in that lower bottom rather than upper bottom. With 1.5 billion people. So, I think the the resilience of Indian economy is clearly visible and one of the sources also retail flow. That is allowing the when FI's are going out almost half a billion, one billion they're pulling out, the domestics are buying.
So, that is also giving a lot of lot of resilience to the general mood in the market and of course the forex the rupee is a little weaker, so it complicates the matter in terms of high crude prices, high current account deficit. Maybe it will also be inflationary if it is not resolved very quickly. So, it's just I mean I have no insights.
In fact, I think there is some economic advisory from central government that we have to be from the chief economic advisor that we have to be very careful and for for short-term growth, we should not jeopardize our long-term resilience. So, that directive is very very important. And but I think we also have a good news in what's happening in the east of India.
That is almost one third of the country and there it looks like there is a resurgence to the ruling party, BJP coming back in power. That's the expected thing. I mean let's see what comes out on 4th, but it is very important in the sense that it is one third of the population, but one sixth of the GDP.
Their per capita GDP of all those five six states, Assam, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, they're the I mean like Bimaru, sorry those uh what do you call sub sub you know kind of a 2000 2500 dollars per capita, economically weaker and they're pulling down the India's growth and they they are very large in kind of so once the catalyst like Calcutta or West Bengal, they rise, it's industrial basically the industry started from there.
So, they have all the ingredients, they have entrepreneurs, they have the everything they have. Just that political setup was not right. So, if this gets corrected, I'm see I'm being optimist. I'm just taking all the positives on our side. One third of the economy, one third of population, if they start getting the boost it can actually in next three four years, it can give a booster of almost a percent to the national GDP growth.
Sir, you said maybe you know, light at the end of the tunnel is what you're talking about. DII's are buying. We have SIP inflows that come in every month, every time record. But the concern is when you see so much volatility, if we don't see the support coming in from DII's, FII's are not coming. Earnings even though they may be stable, it's a concern that is there, right?
So, it just goes further away, the positives. Yeah, so I'm I'm confused in the sense that like yesterday market was up so much, then they said it's because of Bengal exit poll and all, but I'm but the $125 oil for the short term, it's a big challenge. I only hope that this doesn't become new normal in the sense that now we have to live in the world of 100 and I don't think market is pricing permanent pricing of $100 plus oil.
Right. And the finance ministry as well had put out this directive, right? That maybe the markets are under pricing and there appears to be more haze than visibility. So, do you think we're being a little too casual about this if this is somewhere close to the new normal because we got used to very you know, depressed oil prices.
60 to 80 dollars, we were very very content out there. Suddenly you're dealing with you know, 40 50 dollars higher cost, which which is an issue and it's a big macro risk. You know, it's a policy as well will get tightened and you know, things will get very difficult. Yeah, I I would remain cautious, but look at the momentum.
I mean if you look at the earnings momentum, that's been fabulous and many more results are going to come like you might have seen Nestle result, you might have seen actual result right now. You might have seen all the banks. I think I think aggregate growth of the earnings, see ultimately stock market is about the earnings.
You can keep talking about a lot of concerns, but at the end of it if earnings are intact and it is it remains intact for the next quarter also, I think markets will market is saying market is saying that next quarter earnings are going to be good. Now whether market is right or wrong, I mean they're judging that this situation in West Asia is temporary.
You know, but if it becomes permanent, obviously market has to give in. So then see, one month right now at least for April, for Q1 if we talk about it, we've seen crude oil prices very volatile, more on the higher side. We're seeing packaging cost higher. WPI data that came in last month also showed concerns on that front.
So, Q1 maybe would see an impact, Q1 Q2, right? Because of this and if 126 or something continues, then that's a concern then what should we look at over here in such a market right now? I mean I can only say that you have to be very corporate specific because there are always beneficiaries also of this thing situation, but on the whole it is a negative.
It's a big negative for Indian economy which is 80% dependent right now. Because there's a short term is it a short term concern or long term concern? That itself has no answer. If if it is a long term concern, if you say that it is going to be now oil is not going to be $100 and it is going to be $100 then there is a readjustment has to happen.
Till $100 at least I think the market would be No, I think 60 to 90 100 is too punishing. So, till $90 the market You are already seeing I mean apart from energy cost and supply chain cost, I think even the weaker rupee itself will start hurting the hurting the translation cost in terms of higher raw material prices and all inflationary pressure.
So, current account, you know, and so I would think till last week our forex balance was very good. I think we got plus I mean we again come back to 700 plus. So, to that extent it is very resilient. This I would be very cautious at this juncture in the market and we'll look for the developments. And it's a bit of a rarity to you know, put that that term when you join us as well, cautious and Mr.
Agarwal talks about being a little bit cautious. But again, you have to be very careful No, no, 10 months dialogue or 10 year dialogue? They're all 10 months dialogue. On 10 months dialogue, I'll remain very cautious. On 10 year, I am as happy as ever. In the next 10 months, you know, if you have to talk about the near term, say 10 to 20 months
You have to worry about next 10 hours. You're sitting here at CNBC. So, CNBC is all about 10 hours, you know. No, sir, but we we also you know, are looking to guide our viewers as well for the longer term, you know. That's what I'm saying. So, you have to be very careful about 10 hours, 10 months and 10 years.
Right. So, the longer term looks good for India. I see the speculators have to worry about the next 10 hours, but I'm I'm not I'm not in life I'm not written money for no contract. So, so I'm not worried about the short term challenges. In any case, we are always fully invested. So, yes, we'll see a correction of 10 20 again we should be ready for whatever recovery we have seen, you have to be mentally ready for again giving in to 22,000 or whatever had come to.
So, you wouldn't rule out a 10% correction from here if in case the current you know, the So much is happening, I mean who am I to Yeah, things are not looking good here. At $122, I mean it's It's crazy. Yeah. Okay, Mr. Agarwal, you know, thank you so much for joining us this morning in the studios and giving us and talking to us about your numbers, outlook over there for the capital markets as well as in terms of equity markets.
Always good listening to your views as well. So, thank you so much for joining us this morning.
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