저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
캐시 우드는 비트코인의 장기 가치를 강조하며 SEC 현물 ETF 승인으로 기관 유입이 본격화될 것이라 주장. 기본 시나리오 60만 달러, 강세 시나리오 2030년 150만 달러를 제시하고, 채굴 공급이 2,100만 개로 제한되며 장기보유 물량이 약 75%라는 희소성을 근거로 든다. 과거 2015년 250달러 투자 이력과 금융위기 시 위험자산·안전자산 양면성을 설명. 뱅가드의 ETF 거래 제외 결정은 전략적 실수라고 비판.
다듬은 글
yes uh so you'll find in our big Ideas so that's at ark-invest decom the building blocks uh for our price forast uh and our base case uh is in the $600,000 range our bull case uh and we think the probability of the bull case has increased with this SEC approval this is a green light our bull case is $1.5 Million by 2030 you can see the building blocks you can see how conservative we are in in terms of those building blocks uh this is a big idea it is a it is the first Global decentralized digital rules-based critical there rules-based monetary system in history uh it is a very big idea yes uh uh our first paper on this was in 2015 the white paper still on our site and uh we tried to figure out could Bitcoin serve the three roles of money store of value as you say most uh people agree with that one uh means of exchange unit of account and the answer to that was yet yes uh we put out a a a Bitcoin brainstorm uh with our part partner Bitcoin Park in Nashville and uh it it examines the convergence of artificial intelligence and Bitcoin and you'll hear uh his nickname's roast beef on that uh podcast talk about that convergence and how it's going to uh redefine the vision of Labor it's probably going to put the gig economy on steroids and it's starting already in the emerging markets in Africa in particular so it's very exciting I don't think people understand how hard at work these the developers around the world have been uh lightning network is a a big part of leveraging uh leveraging the base layer uh Bitcoin so we're very excited and we're so happy that AR KB is is going to be part of the ecosystem Kathy Wood of Aran vest anticipates a substantial 40x increase in Bitcoin over the next few years propelling its current value to $1.5 million per coin having initially invested in Bitcoin in 2015 when its price was a mere $250 Cathy was among the First Institutional investors to recognize the significant potential nearly a decade later her firm Ark invest received approval to launch a Bitcoin ETF in a recent interview Kathy expressed them precedented confidence in Bitcoin noting that the cryptocurrency took a pivotal turn in 2023 during a regional banking crisis transforming from a purely risk-on asset to a versatile risk-off asset Cathy highlights bitcoin's dual nature as both a bet on advancing technology and a safeguard against inflation and dollar devaluation acting as a shield against counterparty risk Bitcoin in Cathy's view serves as both a risk-on and a risk-off asset she emphasizes that in terms of returns Bitcoin stands unrivaled for a deeper understanding Kathy inv invites viewers to stay tuned until the end of the video where she elaborates on why her bullish sentiments for Bitcoin have never been stronger than they are now yes typically in a situation like this where there are a lot of competitors uh the the uh market consolidates so we would expect that to happen um we hope and trust that we will be one of the winners uh and I think from our point of view we have we have some competitive advantages a lot of people are talking about fees and I'll get to that but we there there are three competitive advantages that I think are are very important one is our infrastructure and operations our partner 21 shares uh has built this infrastructure uh and been operating 40 different funds through booms and busts through having and forks and airdrops and you know and and through periods that the ETF industry just has never seen so uh our infrastructure is Battle tested uh the second is research uh as you know we give all of our research away our first uh blog on bitcoin was the year of our founding 2014 our first white paper uh Bitcoin could it serve the three rolls of money we did in collaboration with art laugher in 2015 and we gained our first exposure in Bitcoin at $250 um and and have never left it uh we think the story has Just Begun uh so we've been Pro putting prolific research out there and now we have a Bitcoin monthly um uh report and a Bitcoin uh brainstorm monthly so uh we continue to give our research away as does our partner uh 21 shares and then the third and this is not to be underestimated the third competitive Advantage we have is a Salesforce that started selling uh our exposure to bitcoin in 2016 that's when we partnered with Resolute investment management and I remember in the early days they were saying oh my goodness what is this what's Bitcoin and so they had to figure out what Bitcoin was and they paid a lot of attention to our research and they have developed conviction I mean bitcoin's been a marvelous investment um I don't think there will be 11 spot uh ET Bitcoin ETFs uh some may close some may be Consolidated into bigger companies the more pure playay uh companies may be bought out by uh by the larger players who need that need more of that expertise inhouse so uh I do think the process of closing and consolidation will take take us down to to three maybe four but more likely three uh well you'll see that we did uh even before today we scaled out of uh gbtc as the discount narrowed uh so dramatically into um into pro shares uh Bitcoin Futures so as let's say as a first stop I can't talk about what we are doing or are going to do in the future uh but logic would logic would suggest uh that um we'd be making another move at some point so um that that we will uh we we will not lose exposure to bitcoin um we're probably more excited about the possibility of price appreciation now that uh despite the controversy the SEC has given a spot Bitcoin ETF uh the green light I think finally institutions will feel more comfortable stepping in and what's so interesting right now is that already outstanding there are I think it's 19.6 million Bitcoin there will never be any more more than 21 million 15 million of that 19.6 are in what we call strong hands uh they their wallets have not moved Bitcoin in 155 days or more that's you know that's 75% of the outstanding so now we believe there's going to become as institutions enter real scarcity value and each dollar moving in will have more more of an outsized impact now than it did before we got the green light and what Vanguard is doing is basically saying you know the world's not going to change uh these new Financial rails are not going to be successful we're still going to have seven middlemen between uh merchants and consumers each one taking a toll and we just don't think that's that's going to prove correct uh truth always wins out Innovation solves problems there's a lot of friction uh in the financial system uh and we believe that Bitcoin uh block blockchain technology generally are going to take a lot of the friction out of the system the other reason I think this is a terrible mistake is you know they're going to deprive the investors who stay with them of really the the first Global decentralized private no government oversight rule based critical phrase there monetary policy monetary system in history my mentor art laugher you may know him from the laugher curve he's also aary scholar he said this is what I have been waiting for for uh for 50 years since they closed the gold window in 1971 um he is so excited about this uh new asset class and that is the other mistake I think that Vanguard is making it's depriving uh its clients of access to a new asset class and what do we know about new asset classes well if it's truly uh non correlated or or exhibits very low correlation of returns to other assets then uh what what a diversification into this new asset class will enable is increase return per unit of risk uh that I think that advisers have a fiduciary responsibility to look at this new asset class and to the extent uh they're working with Vanguard they will be prohibited so again I think it's a strategic blunder but again uh we're all about disruptive innovation that's all we do right uh this is the most profound disruptive innovation taking place in the world today yes our base case is roughly 600,000 our bull case and we think the probability of the bull case has gone up now that institutions have the green light our bull case is closer to $1.5 million uh in the next 10 years so uh what is the what the the biggest risk we were running was our Regulators chasing Innovation from a American Shores uh and so that was the biggest risk we we we were concerned about um I think after 2022 and all the crises we uh we saw back then including the bankruptcy an unwinding and ultimate bankruptcy of FTX that actually proved uh the case for Bitcoin you know it's interesting Sam bankman freed did not like Bitcoin why didn't he like it well it's a completely decentralized Network it's completely trans parent you can watch wallets move uh Bitcoin from one address to the to the other um and uh and you look at FTX it was completely centralized completely opaque and it turns out completely fraudulent uh so I I think in terms of the the risks to bitcoin that The Regulators have been so staunchly opposed mostly Gary gendler I would submit but uh there is another regulator opposed um that I think we have uh we have studied and you know done as much due diligence about the health of this network that's why we put out a Bitcoin monthly um that it would be very difficult to perpetrate fraud in the base layer of Bitcoin any of the hacks you've heard about are are on applications built on top of the base layer and and those are software errors uh that uh abled the hackers in but the base layer which is the monetary system after all has not been hacked so uh I I think that the Regulators while while it was very frustrating and while and and while the the courts had to uh rule make make some rulings in here uh the the regulatory resistance I think has hardcoded if for want of a better word the security and safety of the network Kathy Wood the Visionary investor from Ark invest remains steadfast in her belief in the future of Bitcoin her bold forecast of a 40x surge in bitcoin's value reaching $1.5 million per coin in the foreseeable future underscores her unwavering confidence in its potential from her initial investment in Bitcoin in 2015 when it was only $250 to the recent launch of Arc invests Bitcoin ETF Cathy has consistently been a Pioneer in embracing opportunities in the crypto space in a recent interview Kathy reiterated her confidence emphasizing bitcoin's Evolution into a dual-natured asset serving both as a risk-on and a risk-off investment her insights into Bitcoin as both a technological bet and a hedge against inflation and counterparty risk are compelling as we conclude it's essential to recognize that we are merely at the beginning of a transformative journey into the realm of digital assets Cathy's perspective provides a glimpse into the vast possibilities and returns that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies hold
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