저자: BeraFinance진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
중국 CXMT의 고용량 메모리 칩 출시 예고와 금리 인상 우려, AI 수요 둔화 우려로 메모리·반도체주가 급락. 마이크론, SK하이닉스 등 주요 메모리주 하락 후 지지선 제시. 다만 CXMT 점유율 제한적, 장기 계약 존재 등을 근거로 과도한 공포에 대한 반론도 제기. 진행자는 HBM 점유율 하락, 실적 발표 일정 등을 체크포인트로 제시.
다듬은 글
Your memory manufacturers' stocks are being sold off because of something that has n't even happened yet. Here's what's happening. A Chinese company called ChangXin Memory Technologies, or CXMT, says it will release a higher- capacity memory chip for servers by the end of this year. That's all, just a promise.
And in just 5 days, SK Hynix shares fell by 26%. Samsung fell 22%, compounded by inflation in the US, oil above $100, and talk of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Oracle is also rolling down due to fears about the " death" of AI. And add to this the report that OpenAI's revenue is lower than investors expected, which hit AMD hard.
Meanwhile, Bernstein says this sale looks pretty attractive. So, how many of you went out and bought Micron or another stock that fell today and then recovered later in the day? Here are six stocks that I'll be covering in today's video . Number one—Micron. Then SanDisk, SK Hynix, AMD, Western Digital, Seagate.
Also, before we continue, earlier in the day I saw Coreweave trading down 10%. But then she fully recovered by the end of the day. If you look at this chart, this is my watchlist after the close of trading on Thursday, which is today. Five of these six companies fell by more than 2%. Seagate suffered the most—over 5%.
And Micron fully recovered until the very end. And if you remained calm enough to continue watching this video, you are exactly who this channel is for. So hit the like and subscribe button, because when the market gets noisy, calm viewers are the first to see the next warning. But first, what does the promise of a Chinese chip have to do with your money?
Which brings us to the fear of China. For months you have heard the same story. And guess what Elon Musk wrote in X today? That China is going to flood the markets with Chinese RAM. Here's what he officially wrote today. Memory is in short supply, and the shortage keeps prices high. No one is trying to rewrite this history now.
Changxin's president says the company has made key progress in creating a denser design, which means more memory from the same factory. Elon Musk even chimed in on X, confirming that China will be producing a lot of RAM in 2028. Then a South Korean newspaper warned of a supply glut in 2029. That's pretty scary, is n't it?
Here are three reasons why it may be too early to panic. Number one: a new design is useless without a high yield of finished products. Shay Benn Branger of Quilter says that at a 50% yield, half of the chips go to waste. Number two, Kevin Cassidy of Rosenblatt says it won't change the supply and demand balance at all.
And number three, John Shu Shoi of Counterpoint points to 3-5 year contracts with upfront payment, which mitigates any downturn. So, is the memory market boom really coming to an end or is it just maturing? Before I continue, here's the thing. In my personal opinion, if you watch our videos every day, if you look back, you will see a few YouTube buttons.
I've been making videos on YouTube for a decade now . Having a computer is simply necessary. So I'm constantly upgrading my computer with graphics cards, RAM, and hard drives. So every action I mention in today's video has been a part of my life for over ten years. Now about the shares later. But then again , I now have a team that edits my videos and helps me with all the things.
And for these computers, I'm really thinking about upgrading. So whether it's hard drives, RAM, or processors—all of these have become significantly more expensive. So, what should I do? Let us know in the comments. Is it worth waiting, or is it better to buy new hard drives from Western Digital or SanDisk, or buy new RAM from Micron?
Let us know in the comments. Now, continuing our video, let's move on to the issue of inflation and risks. And now the part that no one wants to talk about. So if you look at this graph, the blue bar shows how fast prices are rising compared to last year. Consumer prices, what you pay at the store and at the gas station, rose nearly 3.7%.
Producer prices, what businesses pay to make goods , jumped 6.3%, the biggest gain since 2022. The dotted line is the Federal Reserve's 2% target . So why should an investor in the memory market worry about this? Number one, the business pays more now and passes those costs on to you later . Number two, with Brent crude oil prices above $ 100, traders are betting that the Fed will raise rates, not cut them.
Number three, higher rates make borrowing extremely expensive , and AI data centers run on borrowed money. And one of our viewers said that he sold half of his chipmaker shares last year and bought them back at a higher price. Sound familiar? Is that you? So, if rates continue to rise , who will be hurt first?
This begs the question: who pays for AI then? Here's a question that keeps me awake at night. Is the AI boom paying off? The Financial Times reported that OpenAI's annual revenue is nearly $50 billion, not $70 billion as some had expected. Oracle then fell nearly 9% as bond market panic spread throughout the week.
Think about this chain. First, AI companies promise huge spending. Secondly, a significant part of this is financed through debt. And thirdly, memory cards are one of the most important products they buy. So, a contract is worth as much as the client behind it. So if your biggest customer sneezes, will you catch a cold?
Who will be left with nothing if AI spending slows down? That's a big question. Which brings us to Micron, because it is at Micron that fear and facts collide. Sales jumped 379% last quarter, a record, and the stock still fell. They fell about 11% in 5 days and are 28% below their peak. Why is that?
First, CXMT already accounts for about 8% of global DRAM sales compared to Micron's 22%. Second, Bernstein says that price growth has stopped accelerating. And third, workers at the Taiwanese factory in Taoyuan fully sanctioned the strike . What is there, what is there is bad. So if you look at this graph, think of it as floors in a house.
The red line is Thursday's close at $907. There are three floors below where buyers have already intervened before. First 858, then 771 and 795, where Micron bounced in July, August, and also today as it fell below the $900 mark . The main level is $700-751. Approximately 17-23% below today's level.
Oversold status does not guarantee that a bottom will be reached . It only shows that sellers are now in charge. And Rosenblatt's Kevin Cassidy still has a $1,900 price target on Micron. And remember, before we go any further, members see what I'm buying into my portfolio , what I'm selling, what I'm tracking, and my market commentary.
And my VIP members in our Bear Finance community get an overview of their portfolio right here on the channel and a chance to be featured in our videos. So if you want to join us, click the join button below or directly on Finance with Bear. And remember, this is not . So, going back to the video, how low does Micron sink?
That's a big question, right? Which brings us to SanDisk. That's what confuses people . SanDisk doesn't even make the chips that China is attacking . It produces flash memory. However, it has fallen sharply this week. Why is that? Because it has grown by more than 450 % this year. And when you've grown this much, every disturbing headline seems like an excuse to go to the cash register.
So, here are the highlights regarding SanDisk. First: SanDisk has multi-year contracts with pre-paid customers. Second: Bernstein says some of the memory and drives are sold out. And third: Bernstein also notes that price growth has stopped accelerating. After its August report, SanDisk beat expectations but still fell about 11%.
So, when stocks are priced as perfect, good news is not enough. What happens to stocks that have risen 550% when good news is not enough? This is a big question. This brings us to SK Hynix , as SK Hynix is a South Korean company and China's CXMT is its direct competitor. That's why it's the most punished asset in today's video , down almost 26% in just 5 days.
There are two reasons that add fuel to the fire. First: its share of dedicated AI memory, HBM, fell from 69% to 56%. Second: she has an unpleasant habit. In July, it beat profit forecasts by 92%, and the stock still fell. The earnings report will be on October 27th, I'm really looking forward to it.
And here's an unpleasant thought: what if the market is waiting not for good numbers, but for proof that nothing can go wrong? So if SK Hynix beats expectations again and still falls, what does the market really want? There is something to think about. Which brings us to AMD, because AMD needs China to suffer.
The stock closed at $555, almost 15% below its record high on October 6. The trigger was OpenAI's earnings report, as OpenAI agreed to purchase 6 gigawatts of AMD chips. So , here are the main points regarding AMD. First: Meta and Anthropic also signed big deals. So AMD is not relying solely on OpenAI.
Second: history is still defined by a handful of large clients. And third: AMD's newest chips have slightly lower profit margins than the rest of the business. And the game direction is shrinking. The report is released on November 3. I'm looking forward to the earnings report. And remember: a customer who can't pay is not a customer.
So, with only a few customers holding AMD's success in check, how much room is left for one bad day? Now let's move on to Western Digital and Seagate. We usually combine these two names because they are from the same sector. Here is an important nuance that people miss. Hard drives are not memory chips, and CXMT does not manufacture them.
However, shares of Western Digital and Seagate also fell. And Seagate fell the most today. Bernstein's Mark Newman told CNBC three things. First, hard drive manufacturers see orders and prices about five quarters ahead. Second, he changes his mind about Seagate. And third, Western Digital faces a technological risk in catching up with the next generation of drives.
Both companies are expected to report in the last week of October. So, when everything is sold at the same time , good companies are dragged down along with the bad ones. This is exactly what should scare you. So is today's fall a gift, or a warning that even safe corners are not safe? This brings us to our final verdict.
So is this the bottom, or just the first crack? This is what you think when you see your briefcase today. That's what I'm watching. First, CXMT. If they deliver products on time with good returns, pricing pressure will become very real. If they are late, the fear will disappear and we could see new all-time highs in our portfolio.
Secondly, profits. SK Hynix on October 27th, followed by Seagate and Western Digital, and then AMD on November 3rd. So you should look for stronger predictions, not just expectations being exceeded. Third, price minimums. For Micron, it's first $858, then from $771 to $795, and then from $700 to $751.
And here's my rule that I follow. If a 25% drop forces you to sell your position, it is too big. When rate hikes are on the agenda , only risk the money you can afford to leave untouched . And again a huge thank you to every Bear Finance participant, you make these daily videos possible, and we'll see you in the video tomorrow.
Comments 0