저자: Kevin · 외국인
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Kevin은 2만 달러를 고금리 예금(연 약 1.8%)·채권펀드(5%)·S&P500(9%)·사모 신디케이션(12%)에 넣는 것보다 30만 달러 주택을 매입하는 것이 20년 후 더 큰 자산을 만든다고 주장한다. 주택 현금흐름은 0으로 가정하고 연 3% 가치 상승, 8% 매도비용을 반영해도 약 36.7만 달러가 남는다고 계산한다. 레버리지 효과, 자산 통제력, 실물 경험, 세금 이연 등 네 가지 이유를 든다. 주택 가치 상승률 3%와 주식 9%를 비교하면 주식 수익률이 더 높다는 점은 영상에서 반영되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
what's up everybody my name is Kevin and today I'm gonna make a little bit of I think an unpopular argument but even if you think the title is something that's upsetting you because you like stocks know this I like stocks as well and I'm starting this video off with the uphill battle of saying why stocks always lose to real estate now I'm going to set this up and can explain everything here and if you're going into this thinking Kevin you're mad you might learn something you haven't thought of before so give it a shot and if you already like real estate well stick around as well because you might also learn something let's get right into this challenge now I think this goes without saying but this is for entertainment purposes only and don't sue me bro just debate me in the comments if you have more than five hundred thousand dollars to invest right now or your net worth is already millions of dollars fine maybe this video isn't for you but if you are part of everybody that has less than five hundred thousand dollars to invest and your net worth is not millions of dollars then this video is specifically for you now I'm not here to tell you that some hedge fund billionaire is going to make more money investing in small real estate deals like houses and duplexes and for plexes but I am here to tell you that if you don't have a lot of money and you want to finally build wealth you're probably going to be able to do it the fastest through real estate and here's the proof let's say today you had twenty thousand dollars to invest and you were wondering alright well where should I invest this and you think okay well I could put it in high yield savings and let's go ahead and invest that in high yield savings for let's say 20 years well after 20 years of your twenty thousand dollars in high yield savings you will have twenty eight thousand five hundred dollars congratulations if you have made money on your money or you've matched inflation okay let's a now say that you invested this into a bond fund like a municipal bond fund or something like that and you made five percent so you get some tax benefits and all that let's just say you made five percent okay cool your twenty thousand dollars after twenty years would be worth fifty three thousand dollars cool you two and a half X to your money that's awesome now what if instead now you invested into the stock market like Dow Jones index fund or the S&P 500 index son and you reinvested all of your dividends and you are able to make nine percent on your money that's pretty awesome nine percent that's great a lot of people would love to make nine percent on their money banks and most people would love to make that kind of money well that twenty thousand dollars after 20 years would turn into a hundred fourteen thousand dollars it's also pretty good right what if you now invested in a crazy really good syndication that said oh my gosh we're gonna return twelve percent we'll give you some cash flow in the meantime we're gonna get you twelve percent on your money sweet you're twenty thousand dollars would turn into almost two hundred thousand dollars after twenty years at 12% that's really really cool now forget about all this compound interest math for a moment and let's think about the other option investing in real estate see right now I just went through a bunch of fictitious sort of potential returns that you might make investing in savings or an index fund or stock market or a syndicate or whatever and that's not to say that you're definitely gonna make twelve percent in a syndicate you're definitely gonna make nine percent in the sp500 I'm just making things up but all of those numbers are pretty good I mean if you picked one of those vehicles that's probably what your goal would be and you'd be thinking alright cool my $20,000 is gonna mean something in 20 years all right well I mean that's just boring compound interest math right now before I say this though just remember what I mentioned for the other options I said you'd reinvest your dividends in stocks I said if you had a syndication you'll be making twelve percent on your money and you would turn twenty thousand dollars into like $192,000 almost two hundred thousand dollars so it was really generous to all of these options I think those are very generous rates of returns now on real estate I'm going to be as modest as possible here and I'm gonna say you're going to take that twenty thousand dollars and you're going to buy a basic three hundred thousand dollar property maybe it's a duplex maybe it's a single-family I don't care what it is but what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna strip all of the potential cash flow that deal has that is rent increases after five years rent increases after ten years nothing you literally have zero cash flow for the entire 20 years maybe you live in it for the first few years and your payment kind of matches what your rent is you're putting aside money for fix up but all in all your potential cash flow on that deal for the entire 20 years is zero it literally makes you no money you spend all of it on repairs and fix up that's it so I think I'm being really really fair to the other options and I'm robbing a big benefit from real estate which it is true that even if you put $20,000 down on a $300,000 house even with mortgage insurance and all that if you don't cashflow day one you'll cashflow after a few years of rent increases in time so super simple here twenty thousand dollars to lock up a three hundred thousand dollar house no cashflow and let's just say you paid market value for it you didn't even get a good deal on it which if you've watched this channel before you probably already know that I'm all about teaching you how each you how to manage your own property I teach you how to cashflow better I teach you how to save money on renovations that's all in the links below but for now we have a three hundred thousand dollar house that we bought with twenty thousand dollars now let's assume the value of that property goes up by just three percent per year averaged out over the next 20 years that's worse than the return that I was suggesting on the municipal bonds of five percent way worse than what I said about the S&P 500 which I think was nine point one percent with dividends reinvested and worse than that syndication example I made at twelve percent it only beats high-yield savings and obviously to keep all of these examples similar we're not considering inflation in anything well now after 20 years at three percent gains that house would be worth five hundred forty-one thousand dollars and you might be thinking yourself okay we'll find Kevin but after 20 years I'm gonna have to have selling costs when I go to sell have to pay a realtor you know it's expensive to sell a house you have to pay commissions and escrow I can trade stocks for free that's fair well let's compare their $20,000 at 12% over 20 years in the syndication fund and then after 20 years you sell and let's say they don't even charge your fees to sell so you literally turn $20,000 into $192,000 cool you got a hundred ninety two thousand dollars best-case scenario with one of these other options well now over here you have a 541 thousand dollar house and we're gonna have to pay some selling costs to sell it so five hundred forty-one thousand dollars and let's go ahead and take off 7% to sell the house Realtors escrow title you know what let's do 8% because let's put a little bit money into fixing it up again at the end even though you've been putting all of your cash flow into fixing the place up let's just be ridiculous here and take off 8% great so you're left with four hundred ninety seven thousand dollars now you got a loan on the property so we have to subtract out the loan that you have on the property well since you got a 30-year fixed-rate loan you've been paying off principal every month not cashflow I've just been paying off the loan every month because you got to make your mortgage payment we're gonna take off the remaining debt well the remaining debt after 20 years is a hundred thirty thousand seven hundred thirty-eight dollars now oh wow you're left with three hundred sixty-six thousand nine hundred eighty two dollars wait what why why is that possible it's like did I screw up the math what is going on the high-yield savings you turn twenty thousand dollars after twenty years into twenty eight thousand dollars the municipal bond fund you turned it into over fifty thousand dollars the SMP you turned it into over a hundred fourteen thousand dollars and the twelve percent returned twelve percent every single year on your twenty thousand dollars you turned into a hundred ninety two thousand dollars after 20 years but wait with buying a $300,000 house that breaks even cuz you keep investing the money back into the house to keep it fixed up all the potential cash flow you've now turned twenty thousand dollars into three hundred sixty six thousand dollars what that's almost twice the return that the Syndication created now just a quick note this example that I came up here with this twenty thousand dollars invested and the three hundred thousand dollar house that was me ten years ago see the thing about me is I always like to look at the things that I did well and the things that I did wrong so that I can learn from them and do better going forward so I always try to revisit this example and I go what am I missing what am I missing like why is it that I was able to make so much freakin money with real estate and I finally found the answer and I could break that down into four reasons first control of value notice control of value is actually different from control of money see when I first bought that house I had $20,000 into the deal so I had $20,000 that I had control of my twenty thousand dollars worth of money had control of same thing when you first invest in that syndication you first invest in that index fund or whatever you got twenty thousand dollars great now you're just waiting for compounding to happen over time and realistically over the long-run you don't see real estate going down and stocks going up or vice versa everything kind it tends to move together which makes sense because as soon as one thing starts outperforming another thing like if real estate starts making a lot more money than stocks then you get stock people moving over to real estate and sort of equalizing the value same thing stocks start doing really well people leave real estate go over to stocks you equalize the value again so the whole market kind of moves together but the first big difference is control of value with $20,000 I was able to take control of a $300,000 asset when I invested in the syndication or the index fund I took control of twenty thousand dollars worth of value now I know you might be thinking well come on Kevin I can use leverage in stocks too sure you can but it's a different kind of leverage a dramatically different kind of leverage in fact let me put it this way on an index fund or stocks yeah you could get a margin loan the problem with margin loans though is you're usually paying higher interest rates of somewhere between five to sometimes as high as nine percent on your money we're in real estate now you're paying around 3.75 percent interest but beyond that with stocks if you have $20,000 in value for stock you might be able to take out $10,000 worth of a margin loan but with $20,000 of cash I could take out an essentially two hundred eighty thousand dollar loan the power of leverage is significantly larger in real estate and then you might think well come on Kevin but that's riskier you have more debt but the flipside is in real estate you could usually rent out the property and have a tenant pay the debt for you and even if you don't cashflow day one you usually cashflow after you raise the rent after a few years but again with our real estate example we're assuming zero cash flow for the entire 20 years whereas in stocks were reinvesting dividends but okay let's say we took that margin loan upfront and you know what I'm not even going to talk about the interest let's just go ahead and say with stocks you took the margin loan and you put thirty thousand dollars in for 20 years cool a nine point one percent you're left with one hundred seventy one thousand dollars still half of what you made on the real estate deal the other thing to keep in mind is if the market flash crashes in a margin situation your stockbroker can automatically sell your stock at the bottom in real estate if market values plummet the bank can't call you up and say give us our money back because you signed a 30-year contract that the bank won't foreclose on you as long as the payment is made so your ability to control more value in real estate puts real estate way beyond the returns of any other asset class that you can invest in and this continues to be true until you're a multi-millionaire and you can't take advantage of these golden ticket opportunities where you can get 10 to 20 of these 30-year mortgages and take advantage of this massive blow up in value in theory you could buy a property every year with three to five percent down and extrapolate this even more ridiculously in fact that brings up your potential for control which is another thing that can increase your returns in real estate when you own this $300,000 property that over time is worth 350 400 450 thousand dollars you could take out safer forms of leverage again like a home equity line of credit and use that money to go buy another property and another rental property so not only do you upfront control much more value with real estate but you also have much more potential to control more value on top of that you get a third benefit that a lot of people only value once they actually get into it once you start owning real estate you start gaining a lot of experience experience that comes with being an owner you start learning oh that's how you replace a faucet oh that's how you do a light fixture that's how ceiling fans work that's how painting and drywall works wow these are all these experiences that generally you don't get when you're a tenant which means you're forever stuck in this fear of oh my gosh what if I have to do maintenance to my house whereas when you talk to any savvy real estate investor you wonder why when you talk to them and you ask him hey aren't you worried about maintenance all the real estate you own oh it's easy because you get jaded into realizing it's not that big of a deal oh but what about the roof and what about this you know oftentimes when I get comments like that by the way I think to myself I feel like people think that when they go to buy a house they don't inspect the roof and get a reasonable expectation upfront as to the life of the roof if you get your roof inspected and a roofer goes hey for 200 bucks I'll give you a roofing certification that is a guarantee that this roof will last another five to ten years well there you go slam dunk you've just insulated your roof risk there's so many ways to solve these little things that come up I talk about so much of that in detail lso be in Vegas by the way on the 20th the so if you're gonna be there the 20th of this month February here I'll be having a 1-day in-person crash course you can meet me ask questions and just the heads up I don't sell anything at my crash courses in fact all I'm doing is providing you food and info per honest now the fourth thing that we didn't even get to value in these returns we talked about is what you can do in terms of taxes see when you go to sell you're gonna have to pay some taxes but real estate makes it surprisingly easy for you to take all the money you made reinvest it into real estate again and not pay any taxes on it you could tell the government hey I'll catch you later I'll catch you later and in fact when real estate there are ways to never pay taxes on the money that you made so all of a sudden when you put this whole pie together and you start thinking yourself wow I got $20,000 to invest I got fifty thousand oh I had a hundred thousand dollars I got two hundred thousand dollars to invest you ought to start thinking about the four things that we talked about here your ability to control more value your potential for controlling more value the experience you gained owning real estate and the tax benefits that you get from owning real estate over some of these other investing strategies and so this is why to me the best answer for building wealth the best answer for how to invest your first twenty thousand dollars your first hundred thousand dollars is go buy real estate and then wait you
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