저자: Kevin · 외국인
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테슬라 주식 보유자 Kevin이 자동조종 차량 안에서 촬영. 2019년 테슬라 목표가 상향 후 주가 급등을 확인했다고 밝힘. 연 100만대 생산 시 2022년 말 주가 약 900달러, PER 26~38 적용 시 1,100~1,300달러, 거품 시 3,000달러 이상 가능성 제시. 리스크로 보증 청구(자율주행 칩·배터리), 마진 하락(15%~22.5%)을 언급. 이후 주당 약 905달러에 66주 추가 매수했다고 공개.
다듬은 글
what's up everybody this is my Tesla Model X and today I want to talk about Tesla stock and whether or not it's a bubble should you buy it what are the risk factors do I own any of the shares how many of the shares do I own and what did I pay from tell you all of that in this video as well as my basis for well what I'm doing but I thought the best way to film this video would be in the car on autopilot so let's do that what's up everybody we are officially on the road to Santa Barbara while the car is driving on autopilot now I am supposed to jiggle the wheel every so often and you probably shouldn't do this but they have these little sand bags that you could just put on the wheel so that you don't have to jiggle it every so often it's always very important though not to rely on the car or make youtube videos while it's driving so kids don't do this at home probably also not a good idea that I have a laptop stand with the charger built into my Tesla alright so here's the scoop last year I made a video and posted it on YouTube called Tesla stock will double by 2020 well folks I was wrong it doubled by 2020 but it's since essentially quadrupled what I made the video so I think I want to start by establishing a little bit of credibility that I actually own Tesla shares rather than just saying I do so here's a snapshot of my TD Ameritrade oops one of my sandbags fell down hold on let me just put my back up sandbag right there there we go okay good so here's my TD Ameritrade you'll see that I have 323 shares in this TD Ameritrade account and my basis is 266 dollars per share which basically means every extra dollar that the stock is now worth is pure profit for me it looks like on this TD Ameritrade I bought in at a total cost of 86 thousand dollars and that's currently worth almost $300,000 I also own 43 shares in a retirement account another 58 shares in a chase you invest account which I've really started liking investing in another 23 shares in a TD Ameritrade HSA and I've got another two shares in a fidelity account so that's how I get to my total of 449 shares now just a heads up I filmed this entire part in the car as well but it took way longer and I respect your time so I'm just gonna show it to you here by sharing my spreadsheet screen with you so we can walk through it together and you can see it happen watch this because it's mind-blowing especially if you like money you need to understand this alright so here we go Tesla currently makes a four hundred thousand cars per year approximately that's about a hundred thousand cars per quarter I made a projection in the summer of 2019 that what if they could make a thousand cars per week well that would be five hundred twenty thousand cars and I thought they could accomplish that with the Chinese Giga factory and the factory in Berlin Germany that's now in development by the end of 2020 now Tesla makes about fifty six thousand three hundred dollars per car that they produce that's the gross money that comes in of the revenue but obviously expenses come with that and the margin for those expenses used to be about eighteen point nine percent that is 18.9 percent of 56 thousand three hundred dollars would come to the bottom line because there are expenses like materials labor the factory all that good stuff but that was quarter to 2019 in the last quarter of 2019 the margins gone up to twenty two point five percent which keep in mind Elon thinks he can get that margin up to thirty percent but always remember this if a sentence starts with Elon thinks you just want to be a little bit careful especially if you're gonna hang your money on it all right so for the sake of the rest of this math we're gonna assume that twenty two point five percent of every fifty six thousand three hundred dollars goes to the bottom line which just for giggles fifty six thousand three hundred times twenty two point five is twelve thousand six hundred sixty seven dollars of every car goes to the bottom line now with this margin we have a profit for Tesla of about six point five billion dollars but there are operating expenses like research and development administration making EDM tracks and AI parties those expenses currently set at about 4.4 billion dollars which leaves a profit after tax of a roughly 1.8 billion dollars which if you divide 1.8 billion dollars by a hundred seventy six million shares of Tesla available you get an earnings per share of of about ten dollars and 52 cents if Tesla produces 520 thousand cars now this is where the real fun part happens with this number we can now compare Tesla using the price to earnings ratio to other companies now in case you don't understand price to earnings don't worry here's a quick primer for you I even have a real estate analogy which you all know I love investing in real estate which if you're currently faux mowing because you didn't buy into Tesla stock like 500 points ago don't worry you could still get yourself some awesome below market value real estate check out those courses in the description below so you can not only but manage your own property to increase your cash flow and maximize your wealth as soon as possible you can use the special Tesla coupon code down below price to earnings is basically the multiple of the earnings that the actual company makes per shareholder that the company is selling for this is kind of like in real estate in real estate we have something called a gross rent multiplier that's like if a building makes a hundred thousand dollars in rent and it sells for 1 million dollars it's selling for 10 times gross it's kind of like a price to earnings ratio of 10 well stocks work very similarly so now we understand what a price to earnings ratio is well let's use this spreadsheet that we just created which is exactly what I did in the summer of 2019 show you the numbers I came up with approximately then and then show you what I think could happen going forward so what I did then is I took a price to earnings ratio of just 26 which at the time Google or alphabet had a price to earnings ratio of about 26 times earnings now that number has since changed some of these numbers are a little dated now but anyway if I put 26 in I get my expected of a Tesla share price $273 and a biunder this price of $232 that was then though what the heck is happening now that's different well I think there are two main things that are different let's make the change right now first I think the market is pricing in that there's no way Tesla would not be able to produce 1 million cars by the end of 2022 it's obvious that must could make a million cars this year and he still wouldn't be anywhere close to meeting the demand for these things but you can sort of forward project your profits then and the stock market tends to do that and the price goes up now this is why you hear things like oh the stock dropped on missed expectations is because people set expectations now they price the stock based on that or start buying based on that and if expectations get missed then the stock loses value anyway if we put a million cars into this production here we're also gonna have to increase our operating costs so let's go down here and add a billion dollars to the operating costs so now we have a billion dollars more of operating costs but we're making a million cars which is good because now our Tesla's really gonna see the benefit of scale now you have a profit of twelve point six billion dollars you're bringing 6.1 billion to the bottom line watch what happens to the share price this is insane and then stay tuned for the risk factors and what I'm doing in just a moment with a price to earnings ratio of 26 and my belief for an uninflated Tesla value by the end of 2022 once they produce a million vehicles per year their stock should be priced at nine hundred and nine dollars which is crazy that's just at a $26 price to earnings ratio though which that's the crazy part because Google right now is trading at about twenty nine dollars as an earnings per share which would put Tesla over a thousand dollars per share note this by under this recession protection number here this is just taking 15 percent off the value above now I know when a recession stocks could fall more but I'm putting in a 15% protection level there in other words buying under the second number here is like the biggest no-brainer for me at least okay this is this is just for entertainment purposes only so don't sue me bro if I'm wrong okay but this is where it gets a ridiculous because remember we're using a price to earnings ratio here of just 26 to 29 well what happens if we use a price to earnings ratio of a company like a visa at 38 if I just put in a price to earnings ratio of 38 look what happens to the stock it goes to a value of 1328 per share or 1129 as sort of the bear case scenario okay but wait a minute what company is kind of like Tesla where you have a really awesome leader like Elon Musk you've got a really good product and service it kind of mixes online and tech and innovation Oh Amazon well what's the price to earnings ratio of Amazon a company that also happens to prefer losing money for the sake of growth which is kind of like what Tesla's been doing well Amazon has a price to earnings ratio of and this to me this is bubble level okay so don't think I'm endorsing this but Amazon has a price to earnings ratio of 88 let's change this to a price to earnings ratio of 88 and look what happens to Tesla stock that folks is crazy like this crazy turn coming up I used to be nervous going into this and it's probably gonna throw my sandbag on the floor but lately I've been pretty chill about letting this car do its thing sometimes I feel like it's a better driver than I am well if Tesla's not going to go bankrupt there's no reason why Tesla would not be able to produce a million cars per year worldwide now am I suggesting that the price is gonna go that high am I saying that Tesla is definitely gonna produce a million cars no no I'm totally just saying if Tesla produces a million cars with a gross profit of fifty six thousand three hundred dollars per car and a margin of 22.5% and operating expenses around five point four billion dollars then Tesla is pretty reasonably valued between 900 to possibly as high as 13 $1400 and if then additional speculation happens kind of like what happens with Amazon well then you could see it kind of bubble up or froth up to all the way over $3,000 and folks that a little bit gives away my opinion on the Tesla valuation now there's a lot of belief that the Tesla valuation is so high that we're in a bubble that this is bubbling up it's another bit connect that this is just gonna come crashing down and you know what it might I'm not a soothsayer but I'm gonna tell you in a moment the risk factors for Tesla and what I'm actually doing but first I'm gonna finish this belief and the belief is right now this is not Tesla bubbling up this is the market realizing that a company that was losing money for a decade just became really profitable and there's a path for a whole lot more profit and what do investors want a share of profit so to me the current Tesla price isn't a symbol of a bubble a lot of people are texting me going congratulations Kevin you're doing great on Tesla stock you're gonna sell now are you gonna sell and that's a very common reaction in fact a lot of other people like people in my private disc or channel which by the way you could join the public section of my private discord group the whole stock market chat section is public so you could join that and chat with me in there links down below under the courses and that coupon by the way but some people in there saying hey you know what like why is this happening and this doesn't seem to make any sense why is Tesla valuation going up all of a sudden so high and make sure you stick around because I'm about to show you exactly what I did this morning it's a little bit of a shocker yet I think what's happening is we had this initial run-up of the Tesla shares doubling to about $400 like I predicted they would and that brought a lot more attention to Tesla to where more people are sitting down doing projections on Tesla kind of like this math that I'm sharing with you here and there lysing oh crap this is a good deal and to me looking at something going oh crap this is a good deal is not the sign of a bubble it's the sign of people taking advantage of what I call in real estate a wedge deal like when I buy a house for $400,000 and it's worth $600,000 after I'd put 40 grand of lipstick onto it and I pocket the hundred sixty grand of profit that folks is being an investor that is not me speculating in the sake of real estate that's me taking profits and making money folks all right so what now are the risk factors for Tesla stock well my very wise brother-in-law love my brother-in-law he came up with the biggest risk factor that I agree with what's going to happen if there are potential warranty claims on things like the self-driving chip the computer software here which we all know I mean you get a new iPhone every single year the stuff gets dated fast and this is self-driving technology what's to make this exempt from that kind of same shelf life so if Tesla has to start honoring a lot of warranties on computer chips and worst-case scenario batteries that could really hurt Tesla's margin a lot and a lot of the math we were just working out was based on a margin of 22.5% last summer we did see a margin as low as 18 point nine percent but my brother-in-law believes that margin could go as low as 15% so you've got my brother-in-law being conservative have 15% you've got a Elon Musk being super excited at 30% and you've got kind of what's happening now and me at about twenty two point five percent so you have to decide where you are in terms of that margin what is it going to end up being now the good news is we haven't even considered things like Tesla solar or Tesla energy or Tesla roof which I know some of those things are more speculative and that's why they're not even a part of this discussion really but I just thought they deserve an honorable mention because look Tesla settled their lawsuit with Walmart they're actively working with Walmart to solve the issues that were happening I read every word of that lawsuit I made a video about that lawsuit and Tesla also came in and took the whole solar industry by surprise with their no hassle will move your Tesla solar lease when you move programmed but anyway topics for a different video now there are also other risk factors like what if electric cars aren't desirable anymore as time continues what if another company comes out with some kind of AI technology that can self-drive these cars better than this or maybe a company comes out with a cell flying car which would be kind of cool like I would totally sign up for that and you know gas prices are going down as well as the cost of oil keeps going down so this is getting a little bit tricky you know there are a lot of factors to consider here but all of that said I'm going to reveal right now what I just did I don't even think I'm ready for this because I don't want somebody to make a meet Kevin exposed video in three months going Wow look at that idiot did yeah oh well I'd rather be transparent with y'all and show you exactly what I'm doing then only show you the things that are rosy so this morning and by the way this is one of the reasons I really like chases you invest platform I transferred sixty thousand dollars from my personal checking account with Chase into my you invest account at Chase which this isn't sponsored by them it's just really I like it the money was available like right away and then I bought 66 shares of Tesla at nine hundred and five dollars and 49 cents now we'll see if that was a big mistake but given that my cost basis is around two hundred sixty six dollars before this trade and even with this trade my cost basis is still pretty low I'm not super worried about it now there are two more things that I owe you an explanation on a first expect volatility in fact the shares that I executed at 905 dollars went up from 905 to 962 dollars and then 10 minutes prior to the close of business for the stock market the stock pulled back to eight hundred sixty dollars and currently trades at about eight hundred ninety-eight dollars bouncing right around between 898 and 905 which is what I paid now if you're thinking about getting into Tesla stock realize there is going to be a lot more volatility and personally I kind of want the stock to fall if the stock falls to 800 700 600 500 I'm sure they're gonna be people going haha Kevin bought some of those shares like 11 percent of the Tesla shares that he bought he bought at 905 haha what a loser but know that if you see that stock go red I'm gonna be shopping again just like I did when the shares were under $200 and that's because I so strongly believe in what I'm sharing with you in this video now last thing market cap there is a lot of conversation on the internet right now about market cap that because Tesla's market cap is so much larger than any other company in the world that Tesla must be in a bubble or it must be overvalued but to me market cap has nothing to do with a company's profitability all I care about when it comes to a property is how profitable is it all I care about when it comes to a stock is how profitable is it that's exactly what I do in my real estate investments that's what I teach you my real estate courses is it doesn't matter what the purchase price is whether the purchase price is r five million dollars or a hundred million dollars you got to figure out how to buy something below the value that you think it's worth I personally think doing that in real estate is a lot easier but I like dabbling in stocks as well so thanks so much for watching if you like this kind of content make sure to subscribe for more of my perspective thanks again ] you
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