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good morning everyone how you doing today michael zuber one rental at a time it is wednesday september 22nd sorry i had to think about what day it was uh we should be speaking with anna kelly at 8 a.m so about 30 minutes or so from now so that's how i know it's wednesday as i look for the daily financial news we got to get started by congratulating some people for closing their first or next deal i should have done a couple of these yesterday but i forgot with all the excitement so let me congratulate them now justin stephen joshua mickey and geralyn and mark congratulations for your first or next rental property your cards will be going out and i want to congratulate everybody for doing the work being a part of the one rental at a time community facebook group all that stuff you guys are awesome keep doing it thank you very much as we look at the daily financial news where do i want to start let's start at the bottom of the page so uh don't know if you saw this but it looks like disney came out with the uh a report kind of lowering expectations if you don't know already disney disney plus specifically uh as i said over a year ago kind of came out at the exact right time and um you know now it's time to kind of pay up right the the health crisis is behind us they kind of pulled forward all of that demand and they were certainly going to miss expectations they couldn't keep that growth rate going and they've now acknowledged that q4 subscriptions will be down or lower than expectations to that end fedex fedex also released earnings and this is one we talked about over the weekend like i think fedex is going to be light and we thought it was going to be like because of actually what we saw at retail stores if you remember the weekend conversation we're like you know what a lot of the mall based retailers were reporting above expectations which meant to me shoppers were going to the store they were stop ordering brown boxes from amazon etsy and the like and sure enough fedex hit top line but missed bottom line so it is really interesting to peel this apart so they did hit expectations on revenue or top line but they are really hurting as far as expense management they did highlight labor shortages or difficulty in hiring they talked about rising labor cost and also the cost of transportation for them obviously gas and jet fuel and things of that nature so again they are having a very difficult time managing costs and they missed they missed earnings by 50 cents i think 53 cents so a pretty significant miss most importantly though they lowered expectations going forward again earnings releases are kind of like the rear view mirror looking backwards it's their forward or future guidance that is really moving stocks most of the time and yeah fedex uh lowered guidance this seems to be a theme right we talked about this what was it three weeks ago with ppg uh sherman williams i think polti homes all lowered earnings the same week right all lowered expectations we are no longer getting positive earnings surprises it definitely seems to be going the other way a la add fedex add disney to the mix and why is this important let's just say the price to earnings ratio is stretched in the stock market and if you start getting a lion's share of negative surprises does the pe go down when does the multiple go down it will be interesting to see what happens in the market next up again going bottom up mortgage demand came out strong mortgage demand for the week is strong it's reported every wednesday it looks like they have they saw a significant jump in buying homes and refinance week on week it certainly appears again mortgage demand is very early in the process we'll talk about existing home sales in a minute but mortgage demand was up for the week and they actually highlighted which is i don't remember when they ever did this they highlighted mortgage demand for new homes i don't ever remember them doing that i've been reading this for years maybe they did i just missed it but i saw it today they said this usually goes down as school starts because again mortgage demand starting now probably a closing in november right so maybe late october but probably november excuse me so again mortgage demand jumped for homes jumped for refi and they called out new home construction which i really thought was interesting given what polti and lennar and all these other companies are saying about slowing development or slowing um sales so pretty crazy stuff and again if i didn't say refi's were up seven percent purchases were up five percent uh in the mortgage the 30-year mortgage for the fourth week in a row at 3.03 percent crazy three percent money go get that 30-year money go get it fixed if we have the 70s inflation it could get interesting next up jamie diamond jamie dimon is someone if you don't know when there's article that highlights him i generally read it char warren buffett sam zell jamie dimon or people i will you know it'll catch my attention i'll go okay i'll read that jamie diamond is out saying uh you need to appreciate that the fed is basically not omniscient they are wrong sometimes and jamie dimon says one of his fears not prediction but fears is that inflation will keep running hot through the rest of the year and that the fed will be forced to be reactive instead of proactive the fed generally speaking again according to jamie dimon likes to be proactive they like to get out early they like to do all of this but jamie dimon is clearly saying one of the tail risks in the economy is the fed will be too dovish i.e not taper enough not raise rates and then a market accident will happen and they will be forced to raise rates very quickly which will throw us into a pretty significant recession next year again jamie dimon is not calling for it but it's certainly on the board of risks and i think again my research into the fed president's pre-paul volcker man it just seems to be very similar to what jerome powell has done he's taken inflation from priority one made it priority two taken jobs from priority two made it priority one seems to be a very big repeat of what was happening in the 70s we do have a fed announcement today the big question is do they announce tapering or do they wait till their next meeting in november i don't know what do you think do you think they officially announced tapering today meaning we'll go from 120 to 110 or 100.
as far as buying mortgage bonds not what they should do it's what do you think will happen and um i'm gonna guess i'm gonna guess they don't announce it don't know why just they should don't get me wrong this is not a should they i just don't think they are i think they're going to say that the jobs picture is so murky and all of those things the this and that we're going to wait so yeah i don't think they're going to announce anything i think it's going to be a more you know rates will be low forever we're not going to raise rates all of that stuff uh lots of things got announced in the last couple of days out of congress congress is back in session this week i have seen calls for 50k student loan forgiveness back on the table i've seen somebody propose eviction moratorium in congress that's again what the supreme court said is it has to be an act of congress so somebody put out a bill also looks like uh somebody put out a bill to continue the federal unemployment bonus again and uh it looks like they just passed this one past the house they're trying to avoid a shutdown and suspend the debt limit man can you imagine congress without a debt limit scary so we'll see i don't think i don't think most of those go anywhere but we shall see what is going on again the debt limit is something i've been highlighting for a month it is in crunch time now we shall see where that goes uh and then lastly we can we can actually two things existing home sales existing home sales actually dropped two percent kind of expected we've been talking on this channel about buyers kind of taking july and august off so it didn't shock me that existing home sales and again existing home sales are actually closed contracts new home sales that come out tomorrow are signed contracts so it's a little fuzzy but existing home sales are actually closed escrows ownership's been changed all of that so that dropped two percent not a surprise uh year on year value increased almost 15 percent again nationally speaking to 356.
there are this one surprised me uh available homes were down last month they were 1.32 it is now 1.29 or if what did they say that was like an 8 drop that is the wrong way we need home we need home inventory to go up so i would love to hear from you our listings especially if you have a buy box if you're following what we talk about at one rental at a time is inventory up now first a month ago let me know in the comments below i want to hear from you what's going on i did not expect this it's not what i'm hearing from real estate agents but maybe maybe my data is too west coast specific maybe there's no inventory out east or in the central uh us so if you're following me and you have a buy box let me know last 30 or 60 days is inventory up or down you can just leave a comment up or down in the comments below either two letters or four i will know what's going on just just curious what my community is seeing and then finally kind of uh what's going on with the evergrande thing a couple of market moving things first and foremost they have settled notice i didn't say paid settled settled domestic bond payments for the week remember we had payments due on thursday which oh by the way it's on thursday morning out or almost thursday morning there or it will be thursday morning soon out in china but they resolved or settled domestic payments so it doesn't say they paid that means they could have traded you know apartments or something and also notice they said domestic payments they are clearly paying people in china china banks first if you are international banks you might be left holding the bag as we step back from this what are we really thinking about you got to remember the chinese economy is slowing down slowing down pretty significantly we've talked about that i think it was last week where retail sales of the consumer was only up two percent when they expected to be up nine that is a significant miss i suspect when you see ever grande in the news and you actually see chinese citizens protesting that is not normal i suspect there may be some the consumer in china may be getting scared right we talk about in the us about watching the consumer because they drive the economy it will be interesting to see what happens with the chinese economy if the consumers really retreat uh if they really have all their wealth in housing and now housing is proved to be not the place to have it what will happen will they sell will they retreat will they save it is going to be very interesting to watch if you do not have faith in your personal balance sheet or your what you own you will save money and spend less lastly president xi i think it's a president i think he's called the president anyways the top guy at china he is saying housing is for living not for speculation so again i think what is going to go on is they're going to whack property developers who got too rich too big for their britches just like jack ma and all the tech executives just like all the education companies just like all the video game companies they are clearly whacking big parts of their economy and they want to punish wealth they're going to take them down a notch and i really think that this is just going to raise the cost of capital in china which actually might be good for the rest of the world right china was sucking in a lot of commodities a lot of money or debt if that stops or gets more expensive their economy will slow down but that money will go somewhere else so it is going to be very very interesting so you guys have a wonderful day it is wednesday that means we should be speaking with anna kelly at 8 and matt the mortgage guy at 9 30. have a wonderful day take care bye
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