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영상 결론: 주가 예측 대신 기업 스토리 이해에 기반한 투자가 리스크를 줄인다는 피터 린치식 원칙을 테슬라에 적용한 사례 소개. 주요 주장: 시장 단기 방향은 예측 불가이며, 장기적으로 기업 이익이 늘어나면 주가도 따라 오른다는 입장. 근거 사례: 1990년 하락장 당시 페니메이(Fannie Mae)가 약 42달러에서 26달러로 떨어졌지만 이익은 증가 중이었고, 이는 좋은 매수 기회였다고 설명. 2020년 코로나 패닉 때 테슬라 주가가 약 60% 하락했으나 판매·수익성 기준으로 과도한 하락이라고 봄. 테슬라 전망: 완전자율주행(FSD), 로보택시, 에너지·배터리·태양광으로 사업 확장 여지가 크고 아직 초기 단계라고 주장. 글로벌 기가팩토리 확장과 원가 절감으로 마진과 경쟁력을 유지할 수 있다고 봄. 100여 개 영상을 통해 테슬라 투자 논리를 설명해 왔다고 언급. 리스크 관점: 리스크는 기업 스토리에 대한 확신 정도의 척도이며, 스토리를 깊이 이해하면 리스크가 낮아진다는 입장. 단, 예상 밖의 변수 가능성은 인정. 언급 종목 방향: 테슬라 장기 상승 전망(긍정). 그 외 종목 직접 예측 없음.
다듬은 글
if you're one of those people that pour over graphs economic statistics or astrology charts trying to figure out what the stock market is going to do next you are wasting your time no one can predict the market so in today's video i'm going over some investment principles from legendary investor mutual fund manager and philanthropist peter lynch for those unfamiliar with lynch here's the short version over a 13-year period he absolutely destroyed the s p 500 returns in the fund he was managing averaging over 29 per annum for more than a decade running in other words the dude knows what's up i know a lot of you watching the channel are actually tesla stock investors so what we're going to do today is actually apply some of peter's stock investing principles his philosophies and ways of identifying opportunities investing in stocks etc specifically to tesla as a case study this is going to be really fun so let's have a look at what peter has to say but before we do hey guys if you're in the us and you like up to two free stocks check out the link in the description to weeble if you open a new account and fund it with 100 you get two free stocks one of them valued up to fourteen hundred dollars eak you have to understand the market goes down there's been 95 years this century we've had 50 declines of over 10 percent of those 50 declines 15 have been 25 percent more so about once every two years the market falls 10 about once every six years it falls 25 these are big drops you have to understand that that's the nature of the market in 1990 saddam hussein went into kuwait the banking system was in trouble we had a recession he had all his background noise lots of good companies had nothing to do with wars nothing to do with banking they all went down in 1990 the market fell from three thousand it fell over twenty percent this gave you a great opportunity to buy terrific companies at very good prices boy oh boy those words sound really familiar almost like the script to a few of my videos that i posted in march and april explaining that the world wasn't ending that some companies had been disproportionately impacted by the panic in the markets and they shouldn't have been i made an example actually that the tesla share price had fallen about the same as delta airlines did i really think that tesla's business was going to be as impacted as airlines during a global pandemic clearly not so i loaded up very heavy bought a lot and my returns reflect this i've absolutely cleaned up on those purchases made through march april may and june it's not a surprise why is that because i understood the story of the company i wasn't getting swept up in the panic i wasn't thinking oh my god the world's ending everything's over i was thinking hang on a minute tesla has way more demand than they can meet they're growing they're scaling they're very profitable they don't have to advertise they sell every vehicle they produce they sell online you can do contactless deliveries man they're going to clean up here they're going to continue to sell they don't have a dealership networks they don't need to keep these open they can keep selling vehicles online it's going to be perfect and sure enough tesla powered through the pandemic sold every vehicle it produced continued to build factories on multiple continents reported a fourth consecutive quarterly profit and is now eligible for s p 500 inclusion behind every stock is a company if the company does terrific over a long period of time the stock will do terrific if the company does lousy the stock's going to do lousy that's all you're betting on look at fannie mae from july through october 1990 the standard force 500 fell 21 fannie mae fell from about 42 a share to about 26 even though earnings were still increasing this was a terrific time to buy fannie mae the company was doing well management was still great the story was solid and they had a very good business but you got to buy the stock at a 38 discount sound familiar tesla's stock dropped about 60 during the height of the recent panic didn't make any sense i really feel like i've missed a trick here with peter lynch to be honest until recently i only had a cursory understanding of who peter lynch was i understood yes he's a great stock investor got great returns at his fund has written some books awesome but i didn't really go much deeper and it turns out that was a very poor decision on my part had i learned about peter lynch and his investment principles and philosophies i would have saved myself almost a decade coming to almost the same conclusions in the meantime remember categories are guidelines they are not hard rules some companies may not fit neatly into a category others may seem to be in two categories at once almost all companies change categories at some time throughout their lifetimes so remember that one time when people thought tesla was a car company they used to compare them to ford and gm oh wait most of them still are aren't they tesla's definitely not a tech company no no they're definitely not a solar company no no definitely don't make batteries no no no they're not an energy company hell no they're definitely not a transportation company no no no they're a car company yeah well done guys it's easier to go from 100 million in sales to 200 million in sales than it is to go from 10 billion in sales to 20 billion dollars in sales so smaller companies tend to have more upside potential than larger companies but don't dismiss all big companies out of hand some big companies defy their size and find exciting new ways to grow their earnings poignant point from peter there god damn what a tongue twister but anyway the point there he's completely right most companies are going to struggle to grow revenue from 10 to 20 million compared to 10 to 20 billion when the numbers are bigger it's a hell of a lot harder but this is a major mistake i think a lot of people are now making with tesla people are forgetting a few major things the first of which is that full self-driving the software the robo-taxi component barely touched the software component barely touched the energy component barely touched batteries barely touched solar barely touched tesla is just getting started the first course was getting some electric vehicles on the roads the second course is full self driving the third course is the world's energy needs okay auto bit of software i've gone into that if you want to watch some of my videos i'll put a link in the description point here tesla's just getting started in my opinion they have a very clear path to continue to scale revenue at staggering rates for the next decade or more when most people think about investing in stock market they dream about investing in a fast grower a company that is growing at over 25 percent a year at 25 percent a year a company's profits will double in three they quadruple in six up eight fold in nine years that's how you get a huge stock in a decade there's not a lot of these but they're very powerful and the best part is you don't have to catch them just as they're taking off the beauty of growth companies is you have plenty of time if they're going to grow for 5 10 20 30 years you don't have to be there the first year the second year you could have bought walmart 10 years after they went public and made 30 times your money apple amazon google anyone what makes a company grow earnings so quickly either it is a rapidly growing industry or it's a rapidly growing company in a slow growth industry rapid revenue growth and rapid earnings growth are the hallmarks of a fast grower we just can't buy any stock with hot earnings and hot sales you have to check the balance sheet make sure the company can keep growing one way you can look at growth companies is think of baseball a normal baseball game has nine innings you should look at a growth company and say i don't want to buy it when they're in the first inning i want to buy it when they're in the second or third inning they've got the formula right they get lots of room to go so you want to say to yourself this is a company that's very early in its cycle like a mcdonald's when they're only in a few stores or limited when they're only in 100 stores and they had lots of malls to go to two really important points here from peter the first was that a company can grow its sales and revenue if it's in an industry that itself is growing hint hint electric vehicles solar batteries need i go on but it can also be growing revenue sales if it's actually growing within a static or declining industry tesla has a double whammy okay they're gaining market share growing sales and the industries that they're touching are exploding and we're still like day one okay global ev sales just a few percent of total vehicle flight solar sales battery sales and absolutely dropping the water compared to what they'll be in five 10 20 years time so we're really at the very beginning so what are hidden assets many companies particularly old line companies companies been around 20 40 50 100 years or more have real estate holdings whose true market value is not reflected on the balance sheet in the annual report in many cases the hidden asset is the company's name and its reputation the concepts of hidden assets is fantastic and really applies to tesla so they've got over 1 million teslas on roads at the moment each of these is collecting data and sending it back and training their full self-driving ai to improve so this is a hidden asset the fact that they've got this fleet of vehicles is actually out there collecting data for a very important problem solving full self driving that is a hidden asset another hidden asset is more of the in-store base but viewed through a different lens what about over-the-air software updates like performance improvements or infotainment sales in the future again tesla can press a button launch and upside and suddenly the financial floodgates will open with software revenue that million plus fleet of teslas press a button suddenly ride hailing network turns on and tesla can take a cut of all of that revenue all of the solar and batteries that they've installed on houses around the world press a button turn on order bit of software suddenly you're printing money and helping supply energy to grids and taking a cut of all of the energy the price of a stock will follow the direction of earnings in almost every case you can generally state if companies earnings go up sharply the stock's going to go up if earnings go from very poor to mediocre the stock's probably going to rise if they go from mediocre to good it's probably gonna have another rise if it goes from good to excellent it's probably going to have another rise or if a company's earnings grow dramatically over a long period of time the stock's probably going to go up dramatically i read all your comments people ask all the time what do you think tesla stock's going to do what's going to happen next week next month should i buy before i have no idea what the stock's going to do in the short term but my answer is always the same over the long term i believe tesla is going to continue to increase earnings therefore the trend for the stock price most likely the trend not what it's going to do tomorrow next week or next month the trend is likely to be up as long as earnings are also trending up i hope by now you've been convinced that your story should always include an explanation of how the company plans to improve its earnings or to sustain its growth rate over time there are only two ways for companies to increase earnings they can increase sales or reduce costs we're seeing both of these things happening with tesla they're continuing to grow sales at a staggering rate and more importantly grow production capacity for future sales at a ridiculous rate i mean they're going to be selling millions of vehicles per year in a couple of years time literally gigafactory shanghai expanding gigafactory berlin under construction gigafactory texas under construction you get the point right and tesla continues to drive costs down as well and pass those onto consumers while maintaining healthy margins we've seen this in everything from the cost to produce say a model y which is far cheaper than a model 3 it has a higher selling price thus a much larger margin to the capital expenditure to actually build a new factory which again we're literally seeing this trend down from a few billion dollars to now around one billion dollars it's insane reducing costs not only pushes up the earnings number it makes a company more competitive if two companies both produce competitive products of similar quality then the one who can build it more cheaply has the advantage they can choose to charge less for the product and sell more than their competitor or can sell it for the same price and make much more money than their competitor this is a similar situation to the one that tesla faces although there is a key difference unlike the scenario peter talked about tesla doesn't have a similar product to its competitors it has a far superior product and their costs are far lower so not only does tesla have the luxury of either maintaining margins and increasing profits as their costs come down but they also have the luxury of undercutting competitors with a superior product which is exactly what they are doing the details of a company's plan will vary by industry and by individual company just make sure you understand that plan and include it in your story once you've built the story for your company you have a powerful tool for judging the stock but like any powerful instrument you must use it wisely and carefully or you'll get burned when i pick stocks i think of risk as a measure of my confidence in the story i've built when i feel that my story is optimistic solid and well researched then i've got a low risk investment this is such a brilliant way of describing things i previously didn't really have the words for there's been many occasions when people have been in my ears oh my god you're taking so much risk oh my god that's a terrible because i had a clear story there was a few dark areas i'd had some gaps in my knowledge so i shine a light in those dark areas okay cool i know it's there now not a big thing not a problem nothing to worry about okay cool whereas people who didn't really have the same understanding of the story because they hadn't looked in those dark areas and lit them up with the torch to actually see what's there they hadn't thought their way through everything they were projecting their risk because for them the same investment would be very risky because of much more uncertainty i'd gone a lot deeper very difficult for me to convey to people sometimes the same thing with tesla people say i'm a there's been youtubers who've made other videos saying you should never invest like this or you shouldn't invest like this or don't invest like this and i totally get it that general advice for general people generally applies but i've done my homework this is why i was all in on real estate in a few markets in australia at a period of time and absolutely cleaned up 10x my capital within seven years this is why i put a huge amount of my current net worth into tesla stock made this channel literally to tell everybody hey guys i think this stock's undervalued i've published over 100 videos trying to explain my thesis my story around tesla because i have this clarity when i see the market decline recently i'm like this is a huge buying opportunity i'm not panicking i'm not worrying because i understand the company this is a really important concept from peter the idea of understanding the stock story and that actually being a way to reduce your investment risk again the same person investing in the same asset might have a much higher risk not because the company is any different the outcome would be the same but because they haven't done the same homework they don't have the same understanding that's unnecessary risk that i try to eliminate so sometimes people see something as an extremely risky investment when in fact from the shoes or the person who's made the investment it may actually be the lowest risk thing they could possibly be doing with their money and yes you can get this story wrong you can be wrong or there can be an unexpected chapter a big surprise that can totally happen i acknowledge that however for me personally when i'm investing in stocks i'd much rather be investing from a place of understanding not uncertainty i'd much rather feel confident that i understand the story and that i've massively reduced my investment risk than just blindly hoping not having a strategy not really having a clear idea how's this company going to grow revenues what's the thing look like in 10 years no idea not for me i really need to understand but once i do i make very confident and big investment decisions because i'm not worried about up because i've looked everywhere i can i've done everything i can to reduce risk and i'm comfortable to move forward with that investment if a startup company sounds exciting keep an eye on it perhaps a year or two later you'll be over the hump the story will be solid and there's a good time to consider investing if you believe strongly in your company's story then you shouldn't waste your time waiting for the ultimate buying opportunity this is just truly uncanny second or third video i made for the channel was called waiting for tesla stock to dip parentheses good luck and the whole point was if you think that stock's going to trend up over time they keep growing revenue etc waiting is a really dumb idea turned out to be a really dumb idea didn't it if a story is good you probably want to own it later if a buying opportunity comes along the stock falls well below its growth rate and the story hasn't changed you can buy even more therefore you can take advantage of market declines brilliant stock investing advice there from peter lynch my only regret is that i didn't discover his principles earlier i mean i kind of came to the same conclusions myself but over years of trial and error and trying to learn and figure out and fumble my way through investing there's a reason that i didn't read lots of stock investing books when i began investing in stocks i saw a lot of the advice to value investing stuff and just went come on guys this is not going to apply to a tech company that's disrupting the planet garbage so i was very dismissive of a lot of old stock investing wisdom so on that note guys if you've got any books to recommend leave them in the comments i'm happy to check them out ideally if they're on audible better late than never i guess i read peter lynch's book one up on wall street a few weeks ago and have since been absolutely blown away by how similar we are in our thinking about investing in stocks and other assets there's a link in the description to the book if you'd like to check it out if you're not already a member of audible you can listen for free with a new trial so i hope you guys have found these stock investment tips from peter lynch insightful useful and most importantly applicable let me know in the comments below guys were you familiar with peter lynch and his stock investing principles and wisdom before this video i know many of you will be and you'll be there with pitchfork stephen how did you not know about this before like i know guys i messed up my bad i hope that in using tesla stock as a kind of case study for some of these principles you've really gained some insight into how well they can apply i only wish i'd discovered peter lynch earlier and made this video earlier i'm steph of course don't forget your free stocks with weeble if you're in the us you can start a new account with weevil using my link below deposit a hundred dollars you'll get two free stocks one of them valued up to fourteen hundred dollars and if you're in australia new zealand or the uk you can get a free stock using the link in description to stake
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