저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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캐시 우드는 S&P/금 비율이 1970년대 폭락 구간과 달리 지금은 반대로 움직이고 있어 선행지표로 보며, 인플레이션 재발은 아니라고 봄. 스테이블코인 확산이 비트코인 가치를 약화시키지 않고 강화한다고 주장하며, 알트코인은 장기적으로 비트코인 대비 부진했다고 평가. 제조업 PMI는 50 미만으로 수축 중이나 서비스업은 회복 조짐, 주택담보대출금리는 하락 중. 중국 무역흑자 확대는 중국 내 디플레이션 압력의 신호로 해석. 장기 관점에서 비트코인 투자 논리는 유효하다고 강조.
다듬은 글
market and price indicators S&P to gold. Again, watching that '70s period where it was a waterfall. There are some people betting that inflation is going to be that problem again. We are not. Uh but this is in a holding pattern and um uh we think it will test and the next move will be up test well and the next move will be up.
Uh but we are monitoring it closely. Here is we think a leading indicator. You you see this uh S&P price to go oil price plummeted during the inflationary '70s. It's doing the opposite now. So, this we think is a leading indicator to the S&P uh to gold ratio. Hey guys, welcome to Everyday Finance. One of the most significant changes in the digital asset market, according to Kathy Wood, is the meteoric rise of stablecoins.
Stablecoins have quickly replaced Bitcoin as the major medium of exchange, which was formerly anticipated to be its role. They currently make up the transactional layer of the cryptocurrency ecosystem, allowing for cross-border payments, quick, and inexpensive settlements, and on-chain liquidity without the volatility of Bitcoin.
Stablecoin adoption has considerably outpaced initial projections in terms of both speed and scope, making them an essential link between blockchain networks and conventional finance. This development makes Bitcoin stronger rather than weaker. Bitcoin's function becomes clearer when common transaction use cases are transferred to stablecoins, reaffirming its status as the fundamental monetary asset of the digital economy, a payment rail, but the fundamental layer of value itself.
just a picture of the rolling recession. Manufacturing sector certainly hit. It's been below 50% below 50% means contraction. It's been there for about 3 years. It too um is I think a rubber band stretched and and uh waiting to recover in in this next year. Service services um as you can see or or the non-manufacturing sector in green is starting to show signs of life already and that's probably the first first place you see it leading leading the manufacturing sector.
Uh consumer confidence took a hit during the government shutdown. It didn't break down on this measure. Uh that's a good thing. Um uh but uh but it's important that uh it um increase and include more than just the high-income earners and we think that will be the case. Uh here's one of the reasons. Um this is a a labor shortage index and it it goes uh into the early 1900s.
You can see major labor shortages during wartime. Uh but what's interesting about this chart is recently when as everyone's been worried about the employment indicators and robots and artificial intelligence destroying jobs, we've had a tick back up in this measure. Uh and we know from the unemployment rate, which is in uh the low fours, uh that we're at a a fairly low unemployment rate uh uh at least by historical standards.
Uh so this is good news for uh employment and especially uh for those who are recent grads. Now, this is one metric uh of recent grads. It's 20 to 24 year olds um with bachelor's degrees. There's There's another measure uh that uh has new new graduates, but this one you know, is all in the 20 to 24 uh age range with bachelor's degrees, whether or not they're new graduates.
That unemployment rate is approaching 7%. The new graduate employment rate is uh is past 10%. It jumped roughly a a full percentage point in the last employment report we saw, which was the September employment report. And you can see on the next page that the duration of employment is also increasing.
It's been at a high level. Um and it it now has gone from 20 weeks to roughly 25 weeks. And I I think I said this on the last In the Know. Um if you have to be unemployed, if if that's just your lot at the moment, um uh and if you think about it as an opportunity, not only to check out what's out there, what's available out there.
I just showed you a chart saying there some labor shortages, but also to uh start thinking about controlling your own destiny and learning all you can about AI and about vibe coding that will help you, perhaps you and your friends, build a business to fulfill an unmet need that you see, uh but that hasn't been solved.
And vibe coding, you can go to chat GPT or cursor or replet uh and um and Gemini, Grok, uh and describe the kind of business you want to form and what your goal, your mission is. And prompt it along the way to get you um from one point to the next including a pitch deck uh with the idea so that you can um you can perhaps approach venture capital or angel funds uh to share your idea.
This is an ideal moment to do it. AI, the costs are so low, you know, you can uh there are some free services. Uh if you want more advanced uh services and and want to be able to use more computing power, then you pay $20 a month, max $200 a month if you're extremely sophisticated. Uh so I want to make sure that everybody seizes the moment because it is an important moment in our history and it's really important to get on the right side of change.
Uh here you can see the quits rate. This usually falls when uh when people with jobs are reluctant to change jobs because they're not sure there will be another job for them out there or that it will pay them anything higher than they're making now. So, this is another um indicator on the weak side.
Uh again, employment is a lagging indicator. Uh savings rate is uh it's it's not at its record lows, but uh it doesn't suggest there's a huge amount a huge buffer for rainy day. And that's probably because of food prices and uh other affordability issues. So, it's really important that we see uh employment pick up and strengthen here so that uh so that the um uh coffers fill for a rainy day over time.
Uh here is from an affordability point of view something that is going right. The mortgage rate is coming down. Uh 80 basis points, we're not a full 1 percentage point yet. Um but it's moving in the right direction. Uh and yet uh this is what buying conditions for houses um seem to be like for uh consumers who felt who are part of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
While there's been a bottom bottoming out, to me it is really striking to see this metric as low as it was in the early '80s when interest rates were in the double digits and some mortgages were 20% at a 20% rate. Um again, as interest rates come down uh and perhaps new home sale prices come down, uh this number will go up as people uh are more and more people are able to move.
Additionally, Cathie Wood highlights how altcoins have underperformed over the long run in comparison to Bitcoin. A crucial lesson for investors is reinforced by the fact that numerous altcoins have gradually lost value in comparison to Bitcoin over time. Greater complexity does not equate to higher returns.
Bitcoin remains the benchmark and monetary foundation of the whole ecosystem despite continuous innovation in the cryptocurrency space. According to the data, owning Bitcoin has continuously fared better than following speculative altcoin rotations. This aligns with Wood's overarching principle of own the platforms, not the noise.
She adds that historically some of the most potent asymmetric opportunities for long-term patient investors have come during times of general skepticism, weak narratives, and stagnating pricing. Uh and here, I'm sure this is quite um quite annoying to uh President Trump and the administration, but China's trade balance is a hundred billion dollars per month.
Per month. Uh and what that's saying, we think, is the uh domestic economy in China is very weak. Uh and uh the rest of the world, starting with China, is sustaining the Chinese economy. What does that mean? Probably means they're exporting deflation, which is another deflationary undercurrent that I don't think people appreciate.
Uh even President Xi Jinping is saying, "Hey, wait a minute. You know, great, we're commoditizing everything and lowering the prices, but we're also killing our own industries. Let's be a little more thoughtful about it." That's kind of good news uh uh from a profit incentive point of view. And um an invitation for more investment.
Here's the dollar just uh reassuring people it's not falling apart, although one of the big surprises is that the uh Chinese yuan is appreciating. Um or I I I should say I should reframe that. The the Chinese Yes, it is appreciating. And it would probably be appreciating even more if uh if the Chinese were not uh trying to manage it.
Uh because they do have a huge trade surplus. Um, that and appreciation is actually adding to the de- deflationary forces um, in inside China. And so, that's why they're trying to manage it. They do not want a deflationary bust. Uh, here you can see the S&P 500 and I think the latest kick up is consistent with this idea that uh, capital spending is starting to take off.
These companies have managed through a difficult time, COVID, its aftermath, and so forth. They're using AI tools, uh, increasing their productivity, and uh, and so earnings are taking off and they are freer now to uh, increase capital spending. Here is just on market indicators now. Commodity prices are firming a bit here.
You see, uh, on the Bloomberg Commodity Index. Um, and so we'll we'll see what's happening. This could be uh, this could be in response to early signs of strengthening activity and maybe a washout of inventories, that being over. So, um, we are not looking at this right now as an inflation indicator, but more uh, an indicator of supply relative to to demand as we as we move into a rolling recovery and ultimately into a strong one.
This one still puzzles me. Uh, this is the metals to gold ratio, lower than '08-'09, lower than COVID. Uh, something's not right out there. That's the purple line. And we think it's China. And we are seeing a lot of deflationary signs in China. Um, the long bond yield, however, is sticky and has not been correlated with this metric the way it has been in the past.
Uh and it's a bit of a puzzle. I guess the the biggest explanation is many people think that government spending is out of control and they want to be paid for the risk they're taking. Maybe that's as simple as it gets. Um and we'll put it in the context of history. Copper going up, I would do not think that's an inflation indicator.
Uh a lot of the electrification of the world including transportation um is uh very uh copper intensive. So, this is supply demand at work. And here again market and price indicators S&P to gold again watching that uh 70s period where it was a waterfall. There are some people betting that inflation is going to be that problem again.
We are not. Uh but this is in a holding pattern and um uh we think it will test and the next move will be up, test well and the next move will be up. Uh but we are monitoring it closely. Here is we think a leading indicator. You you see this uh S&P price to go oil price plummeted during the inflationary 70s.
It's doing the opposite now. So, this we think is a leading indicator to the S&P uh to gold ratio. Investors who maintain patience in the face of uncertainty rather than those who chase momentum at the high stand to gain the most in bull markets. According to Cathie Wood the greatest chances arise from uncertainty and doubt.
According to her, Bitcoin is maturing rather than failing since it fell short of speculative price objectives. In a shifting financial environment where gold is reclaiming its position as a store of value and stable coins are revolutionizing payments, its function is becoming more apparent. At the intersection of these changes, Bitcoin is now firmly established as a key financial instrument for the digital age.
Wood thinks the long-term thesis is still very much in place for those who are prepared to look at things in years rather than months. Even while there is still short-term volatility, policy pressure, and uncertainty.
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