저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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트럼프 독트린 하 단극·국가안보 중심 경제 재편 주장. 구리는 2040년 공급 70% 부족 전망으로 강세 예상. 기업 M&A는 막혀 IP 라이선스 딜이 늘고 SaaS 유지·이관 매출이 축소될 것으로 봄. 비트코인은 리스크 자산으로 장기 상승 기대, 단기 변동성 존재. 미국 GDP·고용은 이민 축소로 재조정되나 실질 성장·감세로 2026년 성장 가속, 주택은 금리 인하로 반등 가능. 석유는 전기화·에너지저장 확산으로 장기 하락, 원전(SMR)은 경제성 부족 비관. 중앙은행이 금·비트코인 한계를 느껴 새로운 암호화 자산을 찾을 것이라 주장.
다듬은 글
that there are limitations to gold and limitations to Bitcoin and will as a result seek out a completely new cryptographic paradigm that they can control on their balance sheet that is fungeable that is tradable and that is completely secure and private. And I think the reason why that privacy needs to exist is that for the sovereignty of a country, you need to be in a position where you have assets that are not easily disclosed to anybody else, friends or enemies alike.
And then separately cryptographically, if you're going to own a currency, you need to hedge against the eventual risk in the next 5 to 10 years that there's a quantum chip that can challenge the existing cryptographic schemes that are used. Hey guys, welcome to Everyday Finance. Chimath, a billionaire investor and CEO, provides an explanation for the current upheaval in the market and explains why he believes that recent political developments, particularly those involving Donald Trump, have changed the picture.
However, he anticipates a significant market rise taking place in the near future. He cites tariffs and worries of a recession as main sources of volatility. To this day, Chimath maintains his bullish stance on Bitcoin, claiming that as a risk asset, it will grow in tandem with a rebound in the market as a whole.
On the other hand, he highlights the fact that persistent uncertainty may exert pressure on Bitcoin in the short run. Chimath believes that there is the potential for a sharp rebound in the weeks ahead as markets prepare for a significant shift. Bitcoin is currently trading at just under $92,000 and has still increased by nearly 5% over the course of the previous year.
We are still completely underestimating how short we are in terms of the global demand supply dynamics of a handful of critical elements that we need. Again, in the Trump doctrine view of the world, that is no longer as multilateral as it was. And we need to have unilateral national security. And if you look through that lens, the asset that is set up to go absolutely parabolic is copper.
And the reason is that it is, at least as it stands today, the most useful, cheap, amendable, conductive material that we have. That material manifests in everything from our data centers to our chips to our weapon systems. It's just everywhere, everywhere, everywhere. And right now, Jason, we are on a path by 2040 where we will be short about 70% of the global supply at current course and speed.
And uh I will pick copper. I will pick the software industrial complex. So these are the companies that sell licensed SAS to the corporations of America. It's about a3 to4 trillion dollar a year economy that is separated into three buckets. Bucket one which is the smallest is the initial licensing. That's probably 5 to 10%.
buckets two and three where all the money is made is what's called maintenance and migration which is how do I just maintain this big bulky license that I just bought for $300 million as an example or how do I migrate it from product A to product B. Those last two buckets represent 90% of all the dollars in revenue that's generated in software.
And because of the advancement of these models and the advancement of these technological techniques that we are all uncovering, building agents, building systems, I think you're going to see that total economic opportunity shrink and contract aggressively. The companies will still be able to do their business.
It'll just be at a much much lower incremental revenue. the customers will be able to do their business. They'll have a lot more flexibility and a lot of upstarts I think will have opportunity. I'm speaking my book obviously, but I'm seeing it on the ground of a company building software. Our entire business 8090s business has basically migrated to disrupting maintenance and migration patterns.
I cannot describe how much opportunity there is. It's very tactical, mundane, not very sexy work, but it's incredibly lucrative. And so I expect that that thing is going to shrink. It's going to impact SAS companies, public SAS companies particularly quite severely. It's not a specific deal, but it's an approach.
I think that M&A cannot happen. And so it's the IP license M&A workaround. And I think you're going to see hundreds of billions of dollars of these kinds of deals. So this is the deal that Google did with Character AI. It's the same thing that they did. Microsoft did it. Yeah, Microsoft did it. It's obviously what Nvidia did with Grock.
Why are these deals happening? Well, if you just look at what Facebook tried to do, they tried to buy Manis for $2 and a half billion dollars. Manis was a Chinese company that then left China and essentially rebuilt itself as a Singaporean business. The Chinese have now said, "We're going to look at this." They are going to actively import export controls.
They're going to actively look at which technologies and even which researchers are working on things that are critical enough that it just can't go abroad in this existential fight that they believe they're in with the United States. The United States is an equivalent such position. All of this leads me to believe that traditional M&A is effectively dead.
I think it's going to be impossible to get a large transaction done. So how will you do it? You'll do what Sundar did. You'll do what Satya did. You'll do what Jensen did. You'll do what we did with Scale AI. These huge licensing deals that basically replace M&A. And I think that that as a deal type
will get better and more refined and tighter and better executed. We were the third or fourth of these kinds of deals and even the third or fourth iteration was quite good. By the time that you're into the middle part of next year and you've done 15 or 20 of these things, I think the lawyers that work on these things and the accountants will just be I started where you were, but this is why I went to this deal type as the biggest business winner because if any of those companies tried to buy, let's just say anthropic, I think it's three years of antitrust minimum.
It's worse than when Microsoft tried to buy Activision because that was a niche product and even that took almost two years and like three or four months if I'm getting it right. It or about two years. It's a huge slog because it's a it's about global coordination of multiple regulators. Yeah. And you have to get through the EU
and eventually one of them takes the lead pole position. But in the Microsoft case it wasn't just one. You had to navigate China. you had to navigate Europe. So, I I agree with you because I think there's companies with so much cash on their balance sheets that are effectively getting debased every day, the markets will start to punish these companies.
It just seems like, you're right, there's going to be a hundred billion dollar transaction. I just suspect it'll end up as an IP license. Gosh, I have two. Well, I'll give you them both and [clears throat] you can just see. My contrarian belief number one is I don't think SpaceX will IPO. I think that it will reverse merge into Tesla and I think Elon will use it as a moment to consolidate control and power of his two seminal assets into one cap tablet take.
There will be no IPO for SpaceX. I think it will just be it specifically will be a reverse merger. There you go. The second contrarian take is that I think the central banks will realize that there are limitations to gold and limitations to Bitcoin. and will as a result seek out a completely new cryptographic paradigm that they can control on their balance sheet that is fungeable, that is tradable and that is completely secure and private.
And I think the reason why that privacy needs to exist is that for the sovereignty of a country, you need to be in a position where you have assets that are not easily disclosed to anybody else, friends or enemies alike. And then separately cryptographically, if you're going to own a currency, you need to hedge against the eventual risk in the next 5 to 10 years that there's a quantum chip that can challenge the existing cryptographic schemes that are used.
Over the course of several months, he has been informing investors that the factors necessary for a significant market move are coming together. and he has predicted that there will be a period of strong and exponential price increases. On the other hand, he cautions that the market can first experience a shock due to the fact that rising fears about tariffs and increased investor reluctance create uncertainty.
Taking this into consideration, he asserts that Bitcoin may experience cyclical oscillations even within the context of a more general long-term downward trend. He thinks that the general picture still points toward large increases in the future despite the fact that there has been some difficulty in the short term.
Remember that there's going to be 150 basis point correction in Q4 GDP because of the government furlow. Okay. So let's say that GDP was probably call it four. You're going to see a print of two and a half. So you need to readjust that because now all the government workers are back. They're recounted in GDP.
If you look through 2026, there's a handful of things that I think people do not understand. Well, number one, all of non-farm payrolls has been completely reset and rebased. And the reason why is because of immigration. So, what used to be 100 to 150 number print is now a 40 to 50 number print. Why is that important?
Because when you look through earnings and you look at the lower 25% cortiles of earnings growth, they're off the charts, there's all of these anecdotal examples now of earnings just exceeding expectations. There was an article in the front page of the Wall Street Journal yesterday about Ford trying to pay mechanics $160,000 a year and having 5,000 openings.
So to Sax's point, we are a coiled spring. Closing the border plus adding productivity lifts through AI and other things have created a growth dynamic in the United States that will really start to show itself in 26. So I think that you should be not short the US economy here in there too. I guess by the way the correlary to what we just talked about if you see 5 and a half and 6 and 1/2 prints and these employment numbers a lot of this affordability stuff may be not as accurate as we think it is.
Everybody right now is trying to figure out, okay, well, where are the pockets of unaffordability? And there are clearly some, but those are narrow and they can be fixed. But on a broad-based basis, what Sax says is right. You have this combination of earnings growth, productivity growth, and now this overlay where you have these tax cuts that are going to hit in 26.
My gosh, I mean, asset prices in general, I think, will do well. Now you'll also see potentially home prices correct because if the president is successful in making sure Blackstone can't buy houses but on the other side people are earning more and they can enter with interest rates that are now 100 to 150 basis points lower you'll see a boom in housing.
I won't say the worst performing but I think a very poor performing asset will be hydrocarbons. I just think that the trend in oil is inexurable and it's down and the reason it's down is irrespective of your thoughts on climate change the trends on electrification and energy storage are just unstoppable.
And so what that does is it shrinks the surface area of where oil is useful. It's not like a cataclysmic thing, but it's sort of a melting iceberg where does it see $65 or $45? And I would say on on a per barrel basis, I think it's more likely to see. Can I tell you why I'm shortly clear? I think that we're in the very delicate part of the cycle where they've missed the window.
So by the time that they deliver working SMRs at scale, the problem is that the marginal cost of electricity will effectively be zero and it'll have gone to zero because of a combination of solar and storage as well as coal and oil. And so it's just in a very delicate place where the large form factor nuclear reactors make zero economic sense by 2032 or 2035, which is when through the Byzantine permitting and building they get it done.
And then the SMRs by the time that they get it done they may not be able to meet the market either. So I think it's a very complicated moment for nuclear actually not scientifically economically just does not hang together mathematically. I have a correlary to freebergs which is I think it's the expansion of this Trump doctrine independent of your politics.
If you are an economic actor, you own a business, you invest in the stock market, whatever it is, you speculate cryptocurrencies, you must understand the movements on the chessboard in 2026. The best framework that I have used to organize myself is this idea of unilateralism, economic resilience. It's just a ginormous trend and I think the output of it is going to be massive GDP prints on top of everything else.
with Chimamath saying that Bitcoin is still greatly undervalued and is drawing both long-term investors and short-term speculators. The cryptocurrency sector is in a position to experience a strong price spike. He is of the opinion that the increasing widespread adoption of Bitcoin presents a unique opportunity as the cryptocurrency is currently racing toward a price goal of six figures and is following past patterns of huge multiplefold gains.
Chimath is critical of central banks for their excessive creation of money and their failure to fulfill their promises. He also warns that the recent inflation represents an irreversible rupture from the previous economic order in light of the everinccreasing debt of the United States. He describes two dreadful outcomes, hyperinflation and a deflationary depression, both of which will result in a decline in living standards.
In addition to this, he draws attention to a change in the political discourse by pointing out that Bitcoin is increasingly being considered as a potential component of a future financial solution, which indicates a shift toward a system that is more focused on Bitcoin.
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