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hey everyone meet kevin here this video is going to replace my market closing livestream as i have to hop on a plane very shortly because i'm going on vacation unfortunately i am also going on vacation right after dying my hair red and the market beginning to crash however we do have life insurance we can get in as little as five minutes by going to mkevin.com life you can get a beautiful live streaming software called stream yard by going to medkevin.com streamyard excellent platform way better than streamlabs and of course you can take advantage of the cyber monday week coupon code link down below which does expire tonight now i hate saying that because i know people like kevin it's always explained the price does go up over time so we did raise the price after black friday we're going to raise the price after this week and then we're going to be done with sales for a while so no more course pitches for a while okay but here's that last opportunity now let's talk about what the he double hockey sticks is going on in the market after i talk about what's going on the market i'm going to talk about my recommendation as hashtag not financial advice now let's get into this first we have multiple catalysts for december we know that i've been selling a lot over the past month i've been selling around i've raised about five to six million dollars in cash over the last month however here's the problem with trying to time the market i'm going to be very very transparent here okay i expected an end of the year rally i bought a bunch of options the end of the year rally came i made attendees on a lot of those not on everything but i did really well on a lot of things then i started selling and then i started selling shares at some of the peak pq4y that we had unfortunately i started buying back in and just the first signs of the dip over the last couple days that was a mistake i made a mistake i failed i took about 30 percent of the cash that i raised and started buying too early now the market is selling off more and the question is where's the bottom well folks i'm going to tell you where the bottom is and it's not beautiful i'm going to tell you that in just a moment first i want to go through the fear catalysts that we have right now and i want to specifically highlight which one i think is the most fear-inducing first we had a few catalysts that congress would not extend the budget they did the market didn't care literally nothing happened the market just did not move why because we get the game now congress sucks at their job their weenie baby pansy so cross that off the list nothing happened nothing burger okay next the jobs report came in today it actually came in in my opinion the best case scenario it proved that wages were not going up at incredibly fast paces as an aggregate average i know that wages are going up in a lot of places but as an aggregate average we're not seeing a wage price spiral this reiterates the long-term thesis that we are not in a long-term inflationary trend we went up on an average of three percent at an annualized rate now looking back a year we're up four point eight percent but at an annualized rate our inflation in the last month for jobs was only three percent that's low three percent i mean i suppose historically is still high but it was certainly well below estimates substantially below estimates and we were worried that what if jobs come in super hot what if we come in with six seven hundred thousand jobs jerome powell's gonna wake up and go oh crap let's taper more right now screw it screw waiting for the meeting we'll taper now no we missed substantially because the market is not overly hot the market is recovering but i think we are on a strong trajectory but certainly not an overheating market where we have to worry about fears of hyper activity in the market the fed's going to come out and crash the market by raising rates substantially and very very quickly if anything today's jobs report is more reminiscent of potentially what's happening in brazil in brazil you have 10 inflation you had negative gdp growth last quarter and you have flat to slightly negative gdp growth thus far this quarter two quarters in a row of negative gdp growth guess what you're in folks the r word you're in recession that's brazil it's not america we're still growing we're growing slower though but anyway jobs report if anything while it was good that we're not overheating it was potentially too far to the good side to where it became bad towards the deflationary side cpi coming out on december 10th whatever we know there's going to be some inflation right now we know that a lot of stocks have run to euphoric highs matterport and face etsy there's a reason i've been trimming some of these i trimmed some tesla i trimmed some etsy i trimmed some end face trimmed now the problem is and this is why it's so freaking hard to time the market but it's it's you see the intuition okay the pattern of intuition i sold i sold i trimmed these stocks i wish i trimmed more for example i sold a bunch of shares of etsy like 1500 1000 or 1500 or whatever of etsy i wish i just sold everything at 280 but i didn't i was diamond handling the rest you know i took a little bit of money to build up a little bit cash and i diamond hand to the rest so i don't like to trade the whole portfolio because it's difficult to re-time your buy it's kind of like yesterday i'm the numbskull who's thinking oh we've had a nice dip i'm gonna nibble and i made it very clear that this was just nibbling i'm gonna do little nibbles on like nvidia and affirm and and whatever look at today disaster look at sofi folks okay this was freaky you want to see sofi watch this folks this is insane okay i'm always talking about how important support and resistance lines are and the long-term investors are like yeah whatever look i have tweeted about sofi having a support line at 1471.
look at the minute chart today folks oh why did it go dark i have no idea why it went dark there it is look at that how weird is that that is basically a solid bounce off of the line that i've had drawn for months look at this decline that we're seeing here okay there's a lot of pain out there right now but why folks why if it's not jobs if it's not congress if it's not the debt ceiling what is it i'll tell you exactly what it is out of the entire list we have it is fear of the interest rate increase fear that jerome powell has become a hawk you want to know why there's a fear of that it's because of what happened at the end of 2018 which if you've been a loyal subscriber since the end of 2018 you already know what happened at the end of 2018 because you know i was making videos in may of 2018 saying folks the real estate market is starting to tank and it did it fell 12 in a matter of two months why because interest rates skyrocketed then after interest rates skyrocketed towards the end of the year as jerome powell stayed strong with his interest rate increases although he stopped raising rates further he stabilized stopped raising rates further he stopped and he's like okay we're going to take a pause here guess what the stock market fell but how much and this is the really important part okay listen to this the s p 500 has not had a sell-off of more than six percent since march of 2020.
we have been on a straight path of nothing but cheap money free money debt galore people going nuts into margin we are at the highest levels ever right now of finra margin literally the highest levels of finra margin debt just google that one funeral margin net this data just came out like a week ago we are at the highest level let's look at that we are nearly 1 trillion dollars in margin debt we have never been at these high of levels in march of 2020 or i should say right before march of 2020 so january of 2020 we're at 561 billion dollars now we're almost twice that you gotta be kidding me this is a lot of freaking debt people are gonna be losing their minds if they haven't been listening to this channel for the past month and and if you're not just a title reader like if you actually watch the videos you will nod your head when i say i have been nervous i have been feeling too much euphoria in this market i have said a million times get out of freaking margin okay hopefully you did hopefully you have and we're going to talk about strategies in just a moment in case you haven't but how bad can it get and and look i don't want to be like fear-mongery or whatever here the market could literally just rebound on monday we could have a massive big buy the dip and everything rebounds on monday but i just these are the times that we want to remember when we're going to talk strategy again as to what to do but these are the times to remember how bad things can get okay let's just look at how bad things can get so what we're going to do is we're going to go all the way back to the end of 2018 we're going to look at the 2018 dip which was right over here there it is this is the end of 2018 dip we hit a high of 293.
and we fell to 233 that's just over 20 percent and look at this for us to recover from december it took until about february to march to fully recover so it took a good three to four months to recover depending on where you measure from some folks say the dip really started in october and the october dip didn't actually end until april which is a six month decline on the s p 500 or or six month process for where half of it declined and the other half it recovered right so there are serious uh beliefs that and i think this is the biggest fear that jerome powell becoming hawkish which i think is totally bullcrap i think joe biden pushed him to be hawkish so joe biden could in my opinion and this doesn't matter if you're a democrat or republican i'd say it either way uh in my opinion selfishly is telling jerome powell you need to sound like a hawk because i need to get my build back better plan done and by doing that he has encouraged jerome powell to well a john paul was able to keep his job but b jerome powell is able now to say all right we're going to retire the word transitory uh yeah we're gonna consider tapering a little faster okay look folks let's be real i think i've been very crystal clear on this channel i believe that inflection or inflation would inflict down at the end of this year i was wrong about that i did not say inflation would disappear but i did say that inflation would inflict down that has not happened yet but it will it will inflation will go away in my opinion within with two years we'll have another two years probably of inflation by by 2024 we're going to see lower rates and we're going to see potentially falling prices that's deflationary right but between now and then we're we have this market where i think the market is going to be very excessively fearful of the fed and they're going to look back at 2018 they're going to go dang i need to be a little bit more protective maybe i need to short the market maybe i need to take some profits and profit taking i think is going to happen on steroids in this kind of market why because stock valuations are at record highs and it makes no sense for people not to look at their portfolio and go well dang if i could get out with a double why not get out with the double now and then maybe just buy the diplock later and if it doesn't if i don't get a continued dip later who cares i made a lot of money i think that's what's happening in this market so i think we have a lot of profit or loss taking to avert further loss because of the interest rate fear the interest rate fear is strengthening such that ironically the 10-year treasury these are long-dated bonds are actually falling and this is something that happens when when the market thinks that long-term inflation is going to be very very low which is defined by 10 to 30 years you see these bonds falling let's see what the two year is doing okay i have not looked this up yet i'm doing a little bit of a guess here together uh let's see what the trend is of the two okay so it's tiny little bit down right now but look at the trend over the last month folks you see that two-year trend oh no you can't no now you can look at that two-year trend it's straight up the two-year is straight up that's because we expect higher rates in the short term but we actually expect deflation or maybe not necessarily deflation but we expect lower rates in the long term that's the 10 year from britain we don't want that we want the united states 10-year there we go and over the last month you'll see the decline so we're going to go to a month look at that decline right here this is where we had some fear that maybe jerome powell was going to be uh more dovish right this is where we thought that we were actually going to get brainerd who is more dovish than powell so rates actually went up when powell turned into a hawk they plummeted it makes sense it all makes sense the problem now is what's the strategy how do you invest now and what do you do first of all i revealed a lot of things to course members this morning i revealed a substantial move in my portfolio a huge move in my portfolio i revealed new business opportunities that i have coming up and some massive new plans and purchases that i'm making huge ones and i'm going to keep those in fairness a secret to my loyal course members they will always be uh first uh to to take advantage of any kind of information that i have that's just the way it works you pay once and you are forever a meet kevin supporter and course member i highly encourage you check that out use the cyber monday code it's not going to get cheaper like there will never be a point it will be cheaper in the future so check that out link below and also make sure to go to meckkevin.com streamyard because it's a really good streaming platform so if you want a youtube if you want to make a youtube channel and you want to stream or whatever check that out but for right now we got to talk strategy okay so the strategy right now is that we've got to talk about what to do in this sort of market all right so here's the thing this is the kind of market where you should look at your portfolio and you don't want to become a paper-handed weenie baby right nobody wants to do that crazy market here's what you want to do you got to look at your portfolio and you got to ask yourself what do you need over the next three to six months and what do you need compared to uh or what do you have compared to your portfolio so for example uh we talked about this in the course member live stream if you are buying a house in the next three months and you've got some profitable options or some things you can close out maybe maybe take that cash and preserve it so you don't miss out on your opportunity you don't want to miss out on buying a home just because the market shifted right if you are in a situation where you do not need the cash for the next six months and maybe you even have cash available because you started selling this is in my opinion a time to buy the dip maybe not necessarily on all things and and potentially you want to wait for a bounce which i will be buying the dip as well at some point here the volatility index has already declined a little bit intraday we were as high as 24 we've come down we're sitting at 18 right now so things are calming down a little bit probably means the spy is rotating slightly up again a little bit if we go to the minute chart probably see a little bit of a hockey stick here yep a little bit of a hockey stick so things are calming down a little bit again but that doesn't mean we can't continue to go up look at the volatility in mixed folks the volatility index is the highest that we have been since february of 2021 uh and and really a lot of this was because of the game stop crisis so you should really be going back to the volatility of right before the election of 2020.
that was a great time to buy if you could just go back and buy stocks solely when these peaks are it's a great time to do it the question is how long is this going to last because we could get this kind of peak up here and then you could continue to peek up pick up pick up and the volatility can just keep going now i don't think so i don't want to come across as like a fear-monger but that's literally kind of what we've been doing here is we've been peaking up up up up up up so uh but again right now it does feel we seem to be falling at the very moment that i'm recording this about about 17 so the way i would approach this market is if i need cash i would raise that cash right now if i and it's not financial advice of course if i do not need the cash and i have the opportunity to buy the dip let me tell you what i'll be buying the dip at all right let's go so first of all first recommendation not financial advice i'm looking at sofi close to 1471.
i like this okay i like end phase under 200. i've regularly said that i like end face under 200 you're not paying that much of a premium on in phase right now to get it at 218. i like etsy under 225 you're not paying that much of a premium on etsy at 229 right now i would stay away from the chinese stocks especially with the ddd listing let's see what else we've got here hood i really believe that hood is primed for a massive u-turn but it's going to fall with the market for now especially software stocks understand this docusign does not have on a three and a half percent miss on billings or two and a half percent miss on guidance you guidance you do not have your stock because of that docusign falling like this is the pure definition of the market finally realizing that bloomberg which i reported three weeks ago was right software evaluations will compress valuations across the board will compress we are going to see valuation compression and it's probably because of interest rate fears now hopefully we buy the dip we go back to the moon next week but that doesn't mean you shouldn't raise the cash that you might need over the next six months for a real estate purchase a business opportunity some other opportunity once you have that clear use the rest of your money available divided it that's my belief and i like the prices where a lot of these things are right now i like that we're getting matterport under 25 again i like that i think that's actually healthy i like adobe falling 10 let me look at cloudflare that's another one that i've been trying to get in on uh cloudflare look at that 161.
it's only 161 i thought it was going gonna fall more than that uh snowflakes down about four percent what else do we have here look at the upside what's up volatility marvel uh take two big deal costco big deal there's like virtually nothing up uh let's see fully here very few things are up look at this flight to safety folks fedex and att this is a flight to safety alma cro kron is certainly having an impact here as well uh you know home depot hello fresh starbucks these these guys are all barely down but uh i i would be hunting and right now anything with a higher valuation whether it's crispr therapeutics whether it's momentum whether it's a spec is getting whacked that's the way it is right now even tesla down six percent bitcoin down at 53 000 breaking the lower supports a firm down at 107.
these are really great prices but i just want to be crystal clear they can continue to go down and so i highly encourage raising capital that you might need solely for necessities but if you have no necessities you've listened to this channel over the last two months and you've raised cash you've taken profits on things and you've raised cash take the extra money and look for ops buying up buying up buying up buying not buying up that's the way i'd be acting right now so with that said i wish you sincerely the best i love all of you i will never be leaving youtube i'm not effin leaving the business opportunities that i have if you want to be involved in those go to medkevin.com cashflow if you want first dibs at them make sure you are part of the courses use uh the coupon code down below for cyber monday week the code cyber monday and with that said thank you so much for being a serious supporter of the channel i honestly hate the fact that i'm going on vacation right now uh because i feel like this is the time that i'm most needed so i know i might have to do some iphone videos we'll see but folks i'll see you in the next one thank you so much goodbye
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