저자: Kevin · 외국인
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연말 익절·손절 매물, 고용지표(예상 55만명), 임금 상승률(월 0.4%, 연 4.8%), 예산·정부 셧다운 등 다가오는 촉매를 점검. 고용지표가 예상보다 크게 상회하면 금리인상 우려로 하락 가능, 하회하면 긴축 완화로 호재. 셧다운은 회피 가능성이 커 보이며 이를 긍정적으로 봄. 소프트웨어 밸류에이션 압축을 경고하며 도큐사인(DOCU) 하락을 매수 기회로 언급, 고마진 하드웨어·빅테크(엔비디아, 테슬라, 애플, 구글) 선호.
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at cyber monday week coupon code expires tomorrow night check it out in wo catalysts that we have to be aware of that are unfolding tomorrow that's friday december 3rd this catalyst shift tomorrow will be an indicator as to whether or not we should continue to buy the dip or we need to hold on with buying the dip stick to cash a little bit longer because things are going to get worse before they get better remember i've been selling stocks for the last three weeks waiting for this dip and catalyst opportunity i did not know exactly what kind of catalyst we were going to be running up against but now we've got a pretty good idea of the catalyst we're running up against we know that we've got end of the year profit taking and a loss taking we know that we've got the big ones jobs and the uh budget deficit government shutdown potential which we're going to be talking about expectations for that in just a moment we know that we've got the fomc meeting coming up in the middle of this month we know we've got inflation data coming up on the 10th of this month and we know that we've got some some euphoria in specific sectors that has been expected to cool we've seen software evaluations start getting compressed potentially under the fear that when rates go higher software valuations will compress now i will say i've been cheering for docusign to fall under 200.
i was not expecting it to fall to 169 where it is right now so i did a little bit of buy the dipping and i might do a little bit more by the different but tomorrow might be a tell for me am i buying the dip too early or are that is are things going to get worse before they get better or am i performing just right where i've spent about maybe 30 35 40 of the cash that i have and i'm buying the dip and i'm waiting for some of the other catalysts over the next week to play out which honestly expect a lot of them to be nothing burgers but let me tell you exactly what to pay attention to for tomorrow keep in mind the biggest goal that i have in this dip here is to buy more high growth high margin companies my favorite most high conviction stocks for high growth and high margin which i do think i have the potential of selling down more are etsy roblox so fine end phase apple google tesla although their net margin isn't super high yet nvidia chip play metaverse play uh and then outside of those i'm also looking at disney paypal matterport and potentially a trade on some of the recovery stocks like carnival cruise lines although i'll be in that very uh briefly uh also looking for a recovery or some sort of rotation on uh financial services like coinbase robin hood which i do expect that we'll see so with that said what are we gonna what do we need to pay attention to for tomorrow well there are a couple things the very first thing you should write this down the very first thing that you're going to be looking for tomorrow are payroll numbers if we get a big beat here well there are a few ways we can cut let me give you the numbers first and then let's try to break this down so first things first payroll expectations right now are that we will see 550 000 jobs so write that number down 550 000 jobs if that number comes in way higher than expected at say 789 hundred thousand a million that could potentially lead the market to sell down as individuals believe maybe the economy is indeed overheating and jerome powell does need to lower uh or raise interest rates to combat inflation but it's not just going to be that top line number because the bigger that top line number is the more part one of the federal reserve's mandate is achieved maximum employment right but then we also have price stability and we also get a price stability till tomorrow we're expecting an annualized month over month rate so you take the month of a month rate you multiply it by 12 not compounded i've explained that before already on the channel we just want to know what speed are we going at right now not the distance we're traveling we're expecting a speed of 0.4 that is an inflation rate of about 4.8 annualized for wage growth so the two big numbers you're going to look at tomorrow top line number if it's a lot higher than 550 could be a problem if it's a miss if it's anything below 550 that could actually be good because it might slow down the taper lead more kind of cheap money to flow into the economy so anything over 550 not so ideal anything over 0.4 on that wage calculation is going to be something that could potentially make the market a little bit more nervous especially if we got a number like let's say 0.7 because 0.7 times 12 is an annualized inflation rate of 8.4 percent in wage growth that's going to start creating nervousness and discussions for the next month about a wage price spiral this would be a negative catalyst so tomorrow i think is a really big potential inflection point for the market where we're either going to see the market go okay all right you know things things are good things aren't overheating but things are good and as long as things are good then hey you know what buy the dip that i think is what we're looking for otherwise if we get bad news the dip will keep dipping like docusign's now at 166.
it started filming this at 169 and that is a dip that keeps on dipping right now in the after hours it's not good it is after hours so who knows it could it could end up recovering tomorrow or it won't remember uh we've been talking about valuation compression for software companies on this channel for almost three weeks now i've been warning that software companies are likely to see uh compressed uh earnings and that's why i've been encouraging hardware companies with high margin the end phase the apple the tesla the nvidia but anyway not financial advice i'm just the stock doctor all right so then we've got the next catalyst the budget all right we need to talk about this mitch mcconnell right now at the time of this recording is actually meeting with joe manchin this is very very rare i expect that joe manchin and mitch mcconnell are talking about their strategy for whether or not that build back better plan is ever actually going to get taken up in the senate but as they strategize on whether or not they're going to take up the buildback better plan which i do expect they'll pay take up the buildback better plan at some point next year because joe manchin could just roll and go hey that's fine i'm fine with the buildback better plan i expect that mitch mcconnell is republican joe manchin's a democrat he's that key vote in the middle right i would expect that mitch mcconnell is asking joe manchin hey look we're thinking about uh kicking the can down the road on the government shutdown we're thinking about kicking the can down the road until february are you cool basically just holding out with us until february before dealing with the buildback better plan mitch mcconnell would want that to happen because mitch mcconnell will then have his base and democrats nervous about the election coming up in november campaigning season is spring in the summer right before the fall election and campaigning season starts right when that can's going to be getting kicked down the road for the 2022 election which is going to make things probably tougher for getting the buildback better plan done so i think mitch mcconnell is kind of looking for like hey we'll get you the vote i'll kick in the can down the road till february we'll get democrats to vote for this the house is voting to pass the extension right now we expect it to pass the house we expect it to pass the senate but i believe that's what's happening here background negotiations about hey let's let's kick the can down the road let's just pick up build back better in the budget in the springtime let's get through the holidays let's get through the vacation in my opinion that is actually going to if this ends up happening in the next 24 hours here 24 to 36 hours and we end up averting a shutdown that's gonna be good news for the market so you've kind of got this potential for double good news bad news or mix uh and cnbc will not stop talking about docusign plummeting which please fine keep talking about docusign plummeting it's fine with me i want i've been wanting to buy that company under 200 for a very long time i'm kind of happy that it's on sale i think uh we'll we'll see where it bottoms out but uh i might be adding to this one a little bit more uh okay so here's the thing what's very very important right now is how these two things are going to play out again if jobs numbers come out in our favor buy the dip if jobs numbers do not come in in our favor we could be in for more pain a lot more pain then flipping the script if we end up getting a budget or government shutdown that's going to lead to more uncertainty and nervousness and that's not good uh oh yeah look at this as we move through q3 and into the next quarter and they just put the screen away basically docusign saying they're seeing people's urgency to buy subscriptions for docusign waning and those docusign subscriptions definitely slowing down so at a slower pace and that's why they're slowing guide i think documents still a great company you've gotta you've got a um a covert play inside there though right as cove it goes away the whole stay-at-home thing goes away we're gonna expect more coved uh stay-at-home traders to actually get out of docusign and into other stocks so that's what i expect to be happening here but again uh even at uh at 160 uh it's still an expensive company you're still paying probably somewhere around 40 times forward let me actually just look at the financial analysis again here 40 to 50 times might be closer to 50 times so we're kind of combining this stream with or this video here with multiple different updates but that's fine i think that's what you all appreciate anyway so we're looking at uh eps of about 355 in 2025 nice compounded annual growth between 43 25 to 43 expected we are expecting profitability this year which would be great so that'll be a very big rotation for docusign and a 355 on a 160 valuation for the stock that's about a 45 forward pe with the growth rate they have it's not terrible not terrible at all it's certainly between a one and a two depending on which year you're comparing to for growth if you're comparing to uh 2025 compounded annual growth about 24 25 let's go with 24.
that's going to put you at a peg ratio of about 1.8 definitely on the expensive side but uh boy oh boy that one that seems like a potential oversell right there down to 166 right now uh wouldn't be surprised if he keeps selling off the more cnbc keeps bagging on it but that's okay you buy the dip when there is blood in the streets so again it might make sense to wait though until tomorrow morning to go crazy on docusign specifically because of the uh the catalyst that we have expiring tomorrow so pay attention to those catalysts tomorrow they're going to be big we're going to get the jobs numbers coming in at 5 30 a.m pacific time and that's 8 30 a.m eastern time and the budget regarding whether or not we'll have a government shutdown or not we should know within the next 36 hours on that one i expect the senate will pass something last minute tomorrow then we'll get the headlines you know budget uh government shutdown averted blah blah blah blah anyway uh bullish a i'm glad i raised a lot of cash because we're seeing a lot of pain and i like shopping when there's pain we'll see in the next one check out the program's link down below with that cyber monday week coupon code expiring tomorrow all right folks thanks so much bye
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