저자: Mo · 외국인
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TSMC(TSM)는 매출·이익 감소를 2019~2020 코로나 특수 정상화 관점에서 봤으나 현 주가 기준 안전마진이 낮아 패스. 존슨앤드존슨(JNJ)은 실적 호조에도 M&A 성장 의존과 현금흐름 악화를 지적, 기대수익률 약 7.5% 수준의 중간 가정에서도 매력이 낮다고 평가. 전반적으로 기업 분석 프로세스 설명 중심.
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Taiwan semiconductor Johnson Johnson just reported taiwan's semiconductor beat on revenue and profit a dollar twelve dollar 13 per share versus a dollar seven expected 15.47 billion in Revenue versus 15.44 Johnson Johnson also beat on both 2.80 versus 2.62 cents expected 25.53 billion versus 24.63 both crushed it Taiwan semiconductor though is down five percent right now and J J is up five percent I believe is that accurate let's double check real quick so guys before we go any further if you're new to the channel we like doing earnings releases it gets a lot of traction it gets a lot of people thinking but remember if you have a long-term outlook on stock you should not focus on Beats or misses on the short term the quarter to quarter basis you should just worry about think about is fundamentally the business better is it fundamentally everything going to be on track if you buy a business today if you own a business out there your business doesn't do the same thing every single quarter doesn't always grow at the same rate so give a little latitude for both of these companies the question should be if I want to own these companies for 10 or 20 years do I think they'll pay they'll make more money and more Revenue 10 or 20 years from now versus today and the answer is yes the question is can I pay a reasonable price today that gives me a good return on my money and that's why we use our stock analyzer tool later on because it allows us then to go sit there and figure out is it are we paying a reasonable price today for that future cash flow so mo why don't you pull up some oh you have this Taiwan semiconductor so these are some of the some of the metrics that compare this quarter to the previous quarter 2022.
so net sales down uh 10 year over year we had gross profit down 17 and a half percent year over year income from operations down 23 percent income before tax down 19.3 percent net income down 23 percent earnings per share down 23 so it was bad compared to the same quarter of 2022. yeah I mean everything in the in the semiconductor business is pretty far down the thing is I mean when you compare it to the highs that we came off of covid are these yes they're big numbers but are they just normalizing you know what I mean that's that's a very valid question to be answered now there are reports out there that the the component annual growth rate for chips will be 10 to 12 for the next 10 years okay but we saw a huge surge in the demand for chips after covid with everything being done the question is was that sustainable we said in many videos we didn't think it was sustainable and now it's showing that like here I'll go annual and we can go quarter to quarter but if you look at 2019 Revenue 32 billion up to 37 billion in 2020 then it jumped to 45.55 and 73 and a half billion so I look at that and say okay even though those numbers that I just said are coming down it's just coming down to normal it looks really bad but it looks bad because we have that big spike that's kind of the thesis that I'm yeah and they're down from last year's from second quarter and okay right so guys should be there and that's the hard part about doing using our stock analyzer tool because when you have declining Revenue which might be which is definitely temporary but the question is where's that bottom where does it stabilize yeah where does it stabilize at for revenue for the company like this they were in 2019 they did net income of 10.4 billion they did 32.1 billion the last year that's massive that's massive you know what I love about these companies look at the number of shares outstanding oh stayed the same that's the thing about Chinese and foreign companies they tend to like not even buy back shares they definitely don't issue shares a lot which is wonderful uh because we don't want our investors to be diluted we don't want to buy a new company and then them say oh we need cash let's bring some more investors in and now I'm sharing more of sharing the revenue profit with more investors than I first signed up for all right so let's look at the eight pillars for Taiwan semiconductor oh wow okay and guys if you have our software you can do customized pillars up to 12 of them four quadrillion different variations but this is our um oh wow but look at this MO big difference between earnings and cash flow if I'm not mistaken does Buffett own this was it this one it might be this one I think he sold it sold it but guys okay I want to explain this this is our five year PE ratio this is our five year price of free cash flow we want them to be very similar when the p e ratio is low it means they're showing more earnings than cash flow when the p e ratio is lower than cash flow that might sound counter-intuitive but for the ratio to be lower that's reporting more earnings we want the exact opposite of anything we want more cash flow than earnings this is a big difference this means they're reporting about double the earnings that they are the cash flow that's always a red flag for me and it shows right there on our main metrics um oh yeah look at this net income of 32 billion free cash flow 16 billion and I'm sure we did hey um hey Tim do you mind doing me a favor can we add five-year net income to our um under underneath here just like we have five year free cash flow so you guys we're making changes here on the spot on the on the fly on the Fly we make changes here for our software to make the user experience better but boy it's a good return on invested Capital this shows guys they get when they invest money in their business they get high returns and it's getting better because I just went over to stock analyzer control which we'll go to in a second but 16 for the 10-year 16 and a half for the five year and 20 for the one year yeah so right we like to see it getting better so the hardest part about this company will be determining what are the assumptions we make by the future because since we don't know the future we have to make assumptions that's the hard part that is the hard part why don't we just jump well actually let's see what analysts are saying okay analysts are expecting a dollar six in earnings this year which is down 17 from the previous year and then they're expect I mean this is expensive though it's a hundred dollar stock yeah and they're expecting a dollar fifty in two years and the thing I don't like I mean we're seeing declining revenues and they have increasing revenues going for the next two years significant increases but they're having a decline for this year still true only two and a half percent though but then a huge jump yeah so yeah I don't know how useful the analyst expectations will be for me with this one all right let's just jump the stock analyzer tool all right and let's do a 10-year analysis and mo I want you guys this is gonna be a hard one but this is why if you have the software for a dollar a day you can sit here and do your own assumptions and multiple different assumptions to figure out what makes the most sense to you we always recommend don't make the numbers work put your numbers in Low Middle and High go to extremes I don't care if they're extremes like you put negative five which we want to do here but negative five five and fifteen I don't care the point is to get a range of where you're at and if the stock is at 100 bucks and the middle prices you need to pay 50 you're just avoided and that's what we're trying to teach you here we're trying to get you to save your time don't go spending a lot of time on something that doesn't make sense all right so MO I was thinking this is gonna be low one five and nine one five you know what I actually think I'm fine with that I think one is way too low it is but it's an extreme and I'm okay with that yeah I mean what if like I'm looking at it saying you know what let's do this one seven okay and fifteen okay one seven and thirteen sorry because I'm just thinking what if they decline for the next five years to get back to that stable level and then and then grow and I look at 13 if if the chip industry is really going to grow at 10 a year 10 12 a year for the next 10 years okay maybe they could do 13.
all right profit margin which has been increasing yeah it has oh boy do I really hate this difference between profit and free cash flow all right give me give me something Mo um what about 35 38 and 41. perfect what about free cash flow oh geez um we I think we should keep it almost half so maybe 17 and a half 17 okay I was gonna say 18 and a half 20 and 22 and a half sure how about that sure all right PE Mo now remember guys when it comes to PE a lot of people look at the recent p and price of free cash flow we just put them up here you shouldn't base it on where it's at today you should start at 15 because that's the market average you should go up based on moat based on growth rate based on return on invested Capital that's how you put that up here the higher all of those are the more PE should be willing to pay as you remember Warren Buffett started buying Coke at a 30p back in 1987 because his thought was they raised their price five percent next year it doesn't matter people are still going to buy it same with the free cash flow so Mo how about 16 18 and 20.
okay and I'll do the same thing for the price of free cash flow now desired return this is a company that's in Taiwan that has a little element of risk and for desire return the more the higher our return the higher our growth rates the higher all these things we want a larger margin of safety 11 13 15.
I was actually gonna go 12 14 16. fine with that now guys remember we're going to still going to do uh Johnson Johnson next but this is just an idea of where we stand here so I look at this right now thinking of myself low price of 30 to 55 a high price of 75 and 135 a middle price of 45 and 90. if you paid today's price and our lowest assumptions occur you're going to lose four and a half percent if the middle assumptions occur paying today's price you're going to make 3.76 if the highest assumptions occur on today's price you make about 12 percent it's just math guys this is just math now obviously things can fluctuate PES Etc but I look at this thing to myself there's so many unknowns about this thing I'm just going for me it's just too hard piled but doesn't mean it's too hard for you we're trying to teach a process here we're not just trying to say to you go buy this don't buy that teaching a process now what we say we like this of course when we say we don't like something of course for me this is too hard I'm out all right so let's go to Johnson Johnson and start looking at some of the metrics on Johnson and Johnson and again to repeat they reported 280 and earnings per share versus 262 and 25.53 billion in Revenue versus 24.6 to be expected and they are up five percent currently so Mo what are you seeing right there so there's sales uh this quarter compared to the quarter of last year 2022 increased 6.3 percent net earnings increased 6.9 percent earnings per share increased 8.9 percent so it seems like everything is getting better for Johnson and Johnson let's see it is currently the second biggest gainer on the S P right now by the way random discover financials down 15 today uh this is their segments consumer health increased 5.4 percent their Pharmaceuticals Department increased and pharmacy closes are number one yeah and what's important Pharmaceuticals is pipeline pipeline so everything got better for them for them wow now let's this is probably a dividend paying company it might guess yeah look at this guys so they have a dividend yield of 2.7 which pays out 11.8 billion their five-year average free cash flow is 19 billion we want their dividends to be less than 50 percent of their five year free cash flow but for a company like this they're probably not growing a ton right so what are they going to do with their cash if the stock is really cheap I want them buying shares back but I'm I'm hoping this this dividends is probably pretty safe it's probably a pretty safe dividend because of how how big this company is 435 billion with 100 almost 100 billion dollars in Revenue how is the revenue growth been in the last 10 years let's check it out um they went from 72 billion to 96 billion over the 10-year period with um but here's what I don't like Mo look at this wow big jumps but look at this this is their cash flow statement there's a part of this called the Acquisitions and dispositions line oh boy look at the Acquisitions 2.4 billion 9.4 30.5 2.55 6.417 are they buying growth that's the question I don't like in the last 10 years they've had what is that seven years of multi-billion dollar Acquisitions now this is a big company I don't really know where they would get growth from otherwise what do you think about this type of company buying growth I to me it's a little misleading on so they shouldn't be well when we make our growth assumptions here's the problem oh because we don't know correct because they're having to spend the cash flow to go buy that growth and what if they just say hey we're not going to make any more Acquisitions does growth just stop I mean look all those Acquisitions and they still only grew Revenue 3.3 a year for the last 10 years how are their shares let's go look at the eight pillars how are their shares outstanding okay they're buying back a few shares very few high PE but here this is where the free cash flow multiple is actually lower than the earnings multiple so the five-year P um free cash flow is 22.9 The Five-Year PE is 27.3 net income has dropped cash flow has dropped bigger than net income oh let's see here about 100 billion dollars in debt could return on invested Capital 12.8 percent is it weird that I'm almost like I don't I don't want to own this I don't think that's weird let's do a stock Channel let's see what analyst estimates are saying first okay oh wow not much growth three percent earnings growth three percent Revenue growth yeah I'm just going to jump the stock analyzer real quick and see if it's even so because of what Mo said I think he's right with so much here the growth coming from Acquisitions that really really bothers me so think about this way let's say let's say you had a of a small business a um a gas station and you ran the gas station really well and you grew 10 per year in revenue and your neighbor has a gas station but they don't do as well they grow three percent a year but they go buy another gas station so it looks like the revenue doubled and everybody said to them oh my god look how great they are they double their revenue and you only went up 10 but really you made your one gas station a lot more efficient and got generated higher Revenue growth than they did they just bought their way into growth and that's what we want to avoid that's not natural that's the reason we sit there and say wait a second they're buying they've spent in the last 10 years how much oh man I mean so let's see here call it 18 24 29 32 62 72 73 74 75 75 billion dollars 75 billion dollars in acquisitions that's a lot that is a lot and they're cash flow in the last uh yeah I mean they've generated a lot of cash flow but it's it's it's ah all right let's do our stock analyzer tool here Mo you give me the numbers here bro um one two and three I don't think they could do more than three percent well if inflation's up and they have to raise their prices because that thing's okay profit margin um uh oh it's decreasing too well it just had one year of decrease do 13 I don't think 13 is reasonable well it's only one year I was gonna go I was gonna do a big spread oh okay yeah I was gonna go 13 16 19.
see but but 16's even low for the middle area like to me what about 14 17 and 20 okay okay free cash flow I would do the same thing but even no I say I don't agree Mo really no look at there look at their look at their last 10 years they did 21.6 and now in the middle area you're gonna put the highest area you're gonna put 20.
I don't think that's fair like to me I'd sit here and put 20 21.5 okay and 23. wow because even though because remember it's only one year of this big drop in the last 10 years they've generated literally consistent free cash flow that's the reason I say that okay let's do 1920 1 and 23. how about that sure okay PE um I would almost 15 17 and 19.
okay same for the price to free cash flow and desire day no return 11 13 and 15. okay hit the analyze button not even close 60 to 80. high side of a hundred high high side middle price and this is our with our with our margin of safety in here if you paid today's price on the low assumptions you're gonna make one percent of the middle assumptions you make four and a half on a high assumption seven and a half now remember that includes dividends because you can't Double Cup dividends you know some people sit there and say well they also pay two and a half percent dividends you add that no this is a cash flow analysis and an earnings analysis what they do with that is completely up to them and has not counted as extra because then you're double counting the cash flow so guys if you like this I have one favorite ask him two favors ask of you one uh like And subscribe to this channel like this video subscribe to the channel and two share this video with somebody who might find it interesting thank you very much for your time
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