저자: 제이디드월드 · 한국인
요약 보기
테슬라 합병 가능성은 낮고 12/3 주총 안건에 합병은 없다는 점을 짚고, 테슬라 주가 상승의 핵심 동력은 로보택시 확대와 FSD v15 출시라는 주장. [스페이스X 주식 무료 분배 언급] - 머스크가 미국 아동에게 스페이스X 주식 1주씩 무상 분배를 예고한 것으로 소개. 진행자는 이를 보편적 고소득 실현 시도로 해석하며 긍정적으로 평가. - 한국 기업이 한국 아동에게 삼성전자 주식을 나눠주는 것은 현실성이 낮다는 취지의 농담성 발언. [테슬라 합병 이슈] - 시장에서는 스페이스X-테슬라 합병설이 확산되며 합병 가격으로 400달러대, 420~450달러, 480달러 등이 거론됨. - 12월 3일 정기 주주총회 안건은 이사 선임, 보수 승인, 감사 선임 3가지뿐이며 합병 안건은 없음. - 다만 테슬라가 개인투자자 의결권 참여 프로그램을 도입해 향후 합병 등 주요 안건 때 개인 표를 모을 기반을 마련했다는 해석. - 합병 여부와 양사 분리 유지 가능성은 머스크만 안다는 입장. [ARK(캐시 우드) 목표주가] - 테슬라 2031년 목표주가 4,400달러, 강세 시나리오 5,000달러, 약세 시나리오 3,300달러 제시. 이전 목표(2,600달러)보다 상향. - 합병을 가정하지 않고 테슬라 단독 사업모델로 산정했다는 점 강조. - 가치의 대부분(약 80% 이상)은 로보택시에서 나오며, 에너지 저장장치(ESS)는 매출 비중 약 11% 수준이나 기업가치 기여는 미미하고, 전기차는 매출 20% 이상이나 가치 기여는 약 3%로 평가. - 로보택시는 3개 주 7개 도시에서 운영 중이며 무감독 자율주행 100만 마일 달성(웨이모 초기 대비 약 4배 빠른 속도). 사이버캡 추가, 웨이모 대비 마일당 운영비 약 40% 낮은 것으로 추정. - 세미 트럭과 FSD 라이선스는 ARK 모델에서 제외. - 스페이스X 가치는 AI 데이터센터가 핵심이며, 테슬라 가치는 로보틱스가 견인한다는 구분. [투자 포인트 및 전망] - 연말 FSD v15 출시가 로보택시 대규모 확대의 전제 조건이며, 출시 시 주가 신고가 가능성을 낙관. - 로보택시 안전성 데이터 축적으로 규제 리스크는 점차 해소되는 중이라는 판단. - 주요 리스크: 로보택시 확대 지연·지체, 예기치 못한 규제 이벤트, 머스크 이탈, 자연재해성 악재 등. - 3분기 실적 발표 관련 개인투자자 질문: 사이버캡 확장, 무감독 FSD 고객 차량 출시 시점, 사이버캡 구매 가능 시점, 로보택시 경제성, 옵티머스 원가 및 첫 고객, 흑자전환 시점, HW3 업그레이드 가능 여부 등이 거론됨. - 결론적으로 현재 주가를 움직이는 것은 로보틱스이며, 테슬라 장기 가치는 로보택시에 달려 있다는 입장. - 기타 AI·배터리 기업 대비 테슬라 로봇택시·피지컬 AI 사업이 압도적으로 앞서 있어 쉽게 따라잡히지 않을 것이라는 주장. [출연자 전망 요약] - 테슬라: 로보택시·FSD v15 기대감을 바탕으로 중장기 강세 관점 유지, 합병은 불확실하다고 봄. - 스페이스X: 합병 이슈와 AI 데이터센터 기대감 연계.
다듬은 글
Musk said that he recommends offering shares directly to the public, and that this is exactly what I should do . And I am keeping my word . I say that next year I will give one share of my SpaceX stock to every child in the United States . There are so many things to come, but they say this will be the first start.
They say that they will give one share of SpaceX stock to every child in the U.S. This is a moment when I really envy the US. A Korean company said it would give Korean children a share of Samsung each. I will give you one week of Hynix. This won't happen . But Musk says he will give one share of SpaceX stock for free .
Upon seeing this, Trump also calls Musk a legendary friend and says that it will give a piece of the American dream to many American children. I am conveying my thanks to Musk . Upon seeing this, Musk says that the very solution is to directly distribute stocks, which represent equity in the future economy, to people .
We usually try to maintain a positive image when we donate. Musk does not need that kind of image. We give you stocks directly. Because what is it that Musk wants? I want universal high income for all of humanity. That is why they are giving SpaceX stock for free to young children, who are the future of America .
Isn't it really amazing? This deserves applause . And right now, when it comes to Tesla news, what many people are concerned about is the merger, and RBC Capital will acquire Tesla at $480 per share. Well, there is talk of $420 and $450, but the $400 range is being mentioned the most . However, people are puzzled as the date for the general shareholders' meeting was announced today .
Because many people expected the merger to be on the agenda at the general shareholders' meeting . But the predicted price is completely the opposite. The Tesla shareholder count is on December 3rd. However, there is no merger on the agenda . It is just a very ordinary general shareholders' meeting where directors are elected, remuneration is approved, and auditors are appointed .
However, if you look a little closer at this, it is said that Tesla has created a new voting program for individual investors . It is said that it takes effect after the general meeting of shareholders ends . Tesla has introduced a new voting rights exercise system, referred to as a voluntary somein voting program .
After the general shareholders' meeting voting ends on December 3, individual investors will be able to vote through other platforms . In the case of Tesla, it is a stock with a high proportion of individual investors . However, in the case of general shareholders' meetings, it is said that the participation rate of individual investors is higher than that of period investors .
Musk and the Tesla board of directors say that they systematized this program because they need the votes of their support base, individual investors. So, to check the exact facts, there are only three items on the agenda for the general shareholders' meeting on December 3rd: the re-election of directors, approval of remuneration, and the appointment of an auditor .
There is no merger. However, Tesla has established a permanent proxy voting program, which will be available starting from the general shareholders' meeting in December . So, it is also said that it is true that Tesla has laid the groundwork to win votes from individual investors when future mergers or major proposals are put forward .
So now that the general shareholders' meeting is over, only Musk knows whether a vote on the merger will take place or if Tesla and SpaceX will go their separate ways. And ALC is releasing a new target price for Tesla . I had been saying that Tesla would reach $2,600, but the new target price is much higher.
We are looking at a target price of $4,400 for Tesla in 2031, and if things go better, it could reach $5,000 . They are forecasting that if things don't go well, it could go up to $3,300. What is important to note here is that when ALC releases its target price for Tesla, it is not assuming a merger between SpaceX and Tesla.
They are valuing Tesla's business model exclusively and are talking about $5,000 per share in a Tesla bull scenario. And there is only one thing Cathie Wood says . They say that all of Tesla's value and all of its revenue comes from robot taxis . They say that other things are not important . For one thing, Ark, which knows Tesla better than anyone, is not presenting a business model that combines Tesla and SpaceX .
Tesla is establishing its business model exclusively. Currently, many people are saying that a merger will happen, but there is also a possibility of a twist where Musk simply keeps Tesla and SpaceX separate . So, how can Tesla reach $4,000 or $5,000? We currently expect robot taxis to account for half of our revenue .
Robo-taxis are everything. Although robot taxis account for half of the revenue, if we look at it from the perspective of memory value, it is considered to be over 80% robot taxis. Ultimately, an expansion for robot taxis needs to be released . It is expected that Tesla's stock price will rise significantly as the number of robot taxis increases and profits are generated from them .
Cathie Wood views this energy storage system as very low . They estimate sales at around 11%, and in contrast, they view the value of the memory that became Evida as very low. In fact, they do not believe it will have a significant impact on the stock price . Electric vehicles also account for more than 20% of sales, but in terms of corporate value, they account for 3%.
So, all the grounds for saying it will go up to $4,400 or $5,000 lie in robot taxis . Tesla's stock price can only rise if robot expansion is released. And Cathiewood is more certain than ever . It is said that robot taxis have now expanded to seven cities across three states and completed over one million miles of unsupervised autonomous driving in seven months, at a speed about four times faster than Waymo's first one million miles.
It is said that if Tesla releases FSD version 15 at the end of this year, the speed of expansion will accelerate, and ultimately, FSD version 15 must be released. It is believed that the number of robot taxis will increase significantly once this is released . Musk also said that it was real starting from version 15.
Large-scale robot taxis are possible starting from version 15 . Ultimately, as version 15 is released at the end of this year and the number of robots increases, Tesla's stock price will rise significantly. Tesla has added the CyberCab to its robot taxi fleet. And he says that Tesla's operating cost per mile over the same distance appears to be about 40% lower than Waymo's next-generation robot taxi .
There is no company that can beat Tesla's price war. With Tesla's victory, we can be confident . And at ALC, when feeding this business model, they excluded the Tesla Semi Truck and also excluded the FSD license . Does removing the SD license mean they believe other legacy companies will ultimately choose Tesla ?
This is quite ambiguous. The moment you choose FSD, the car's brand power completely disappears. Ultimately, the view is that Tesla expanding its Robotics Service is far more important to its value and will account for the majority of it, rather than other automakers licensing FSD . So, Tesla's stock price of $4,400 does not include SpaceX.
Electric vehicle robot taxis , car sharing, energy storage devices, and even Optimus sales have been calculated. However, if Tesla and SpaceX were to merge, they are projecting that AI would account for half of their total revenue . We are expecting very significant revenue from AI data centers . The second is Robot City and the third is Starlink.
So, the view is that currently, the only thing driving up Tesla's stock price is robotics, while raising SpaceX's stock price depends entirely on AI data centers . It is said that Tesla's current risks include slowing or delaying the expansion of its Rover Taxi service, unexpected regulatory events, Musk suddenly leaving Tesla, or the possibility of a natural pandemic .
However, the most important thing to look at right now is that robot taxis are becoming much safer than humans, and since such data is emerging, the risks in the regulatory sector are gradually disappearing . So, ALC is projecting a target price of $4,400 for Tesla in 2031. It is the belief that Tesla, RoboTexia, and Optimus will bring unbelievable returns to shareholders over the next 10 years .
It is Thursday morning in Korea time. What are the questions from retail investors regarding the Q3 earnings announcement ? The way CyberCabi expands beyond the large-scale Austin location is ultimately what we want. This is Robotaxy. When is unsupervised FSD available for customer vehicles ? When can we purchase CyberCap?
What is the economic feasibility of a robotaxi? It's the price. What is the cost per unit of Optimus, and what will the first Euro customer look like? When can we expect Optimus to become profitable? Tesla Hardware 3 admitted that unsupervised FSD is not available. In that case, Tesla owners are wondering if hardware upgrades are possible for free .
Ultimately, the question from individual investors is also about CyberCap, Robotics, and Optimus. However, we need to look at the case of Optimus later, and there is only one thing that can raise Tesla's stock price right now. With the release of FSD version 15 at the end of the year, the expansion of Robot City will begin.
The number of RoboTaxi Model Y CyberCabs needs to be significantly increased and deployed in large numbers. So, I believe it is fully capable of creating a new all-time high, and what is the entirety of Tesla's value right now? It is a robotaxi. And for this to be possible, FST version 15 needs to be released .
I expect that to happen at the end of the year, and Cathiewood also anticipates it will be at the end of this year. Once this is done, the robot will expand. Then the stock price goes up. The fact that SpaceX has its Earth headquarters in 2049 means that Musk has expanded to other planets as well . So, to summarize, what many people are most curious about right now is the merger, and Wall Street most expects the premium to be in the $400 range if a merger happens .
However, there is no agenda item regarding the merger at the general shareholders' meeting on December 3 . However, since a program has been created allowing individual investors to vote after the general shareholders' meeting, future agenda items may be introduced. And Cathie Wood has brought a new target price for Tesla at $4,400.
The case is $5,000. And they view robot taxis as accounting for more than 80% of Tesla's value, and believe that energy storage devices have virtually no impact on Tesla's stock price . There are also many AI companies currently. There are companies that make needles, and there are many companies that make batteries .
However, I believe that Tesla's robot taxi business and physical AI business are unrivaledly far ahead . It is believed that other companies cannot catch up. That is why I am calmly waiting for FSD version 15 again today . Who do you think is the winner laughing in the end? Ultimately, the point is that they will create it as a Tesla robot taxi .
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