저자: Nathan · 외국인
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SPY는 586 지지 붕괴 시 563까지 하락 가능한 헤드앤숄더 위험. QQQ는 515 이탈 시 500 부근 조정 가능, 장기 상승추세는 유효. 엔비디아는 130선 이탈 시 115 조정 가능. 테슬라는 주봉 슈팅스타와 저점 하락 전환으로 358 부근 조정 예상. AMD는 118-117 이탈 시 약세 전환, 파레트(팔란티어)는 71달러 지지 확인 중으로 상대적으로 강세. 발언 대부분은 조건부 시나리오이며 확정적 예측은 아님. 영상 말미에 유료 텔레그램/멘토링 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
once again the market has failed to make a bottom signal just when they spy the KQ and many other stocks are trading around critical support points and this is a sign that the medium-term trend is very weak and the bearish reversal is apparently imminent this is a particularly dangerous turning point for the market so in today's video the last of 2024 by the way we'll see if the market has any chance of recovery what needs to happen for a bottom signal to appear and of course what to expect next if we continue to fall this is the finance Hydra Channel where we study the market together and you get practical objective analysis without sensationalism without causing panic or fear in anyone without any bias here we just focus on technical evidence and how to react to the data we are shown my name is Nathan welcome to another daily analysis now as we can see here spy is having a very hard time a very hard time near its support level around 586 we don't see any meaningful bottom signal there is not a single bullish reaction suggesting that spy could recover that spy could make a bottom signal in this area but uh at least we are not losing this support level yet so if you ask me although the situation is very dangerous there is still time for us to see a good meaningful bullish reaction however however the Spy needs to make a nearly miraculous reaction in order to avoid a sharper correction because by losing the 586 we are going to lose a critical support level which is the neckline of this gigantic Head and Shoulders chart pattern one of the most reliable bearish reversal chart structures known in technical analysis in this case we could easily close this Gap at 576 however if you ask me the technical Target of this head and shoulders which is the size of the head projected in the direction of in the direction of the breakout is around 563 which is also by the way the previous top level as we can see here on the weekly chart multiple multiple resistance levels in July August and the September this year all right so the 563 is going to be our next major support level if we see the Spy actually triggering this head and shoulders chart pattern therefore we got to watch out okay because technically we are bearish we are below the 21 Day EMA and we are not reacting at all we got to see a miraculous reaction like tomorrow tomorrow I'm so sorry tomorrow's holiday like this Thursday or maybe maybe in the next week in order to avoid a sharper correction in order to avoid the materialization of this head and shoulders chart pattern all right so we got to be very careful regarding the KQ we are on the verge of triggering this bearish Pivot Point by losing the 515 we are going to trigger a lower high lower low and in this case we could trigger a long-term pullback possibly to the $500 area which is not only a psychological a round psychological number right remember the market has a thing for round numbers and that the 500 is a quite important support level in addition it is very close to to the 21 weekly moving average the 21-day EMA which is right now pointing upwards therefore this key point is going to be our next major support level in the world worst case scenario we could retest the support line of this ascending Channel okay and bear in mind bear in mind the K kill is going up on the weekly chart we are still making higher highs higher lows we are inside an ascending Channel and as the name suggests we are ascending right we are going up therefore the long-term uptrend would still be technically intact even if we see a pullback to the support line of of this ascending Channel as far as I know any pullback to this level could be just another buying opportunity if we see a bullish reaction all right if we see a clear bullish reaction Above This ascending channel so far so far medium-term speaking we are not reacting we are making a quite ugly bearish reaction and this is going to affect negatively our stocks because Nvidia could reject the bullish case over here Nvidia was looking quite good all right it was looking quite promising yesterday we made a nice bullish Candlestick over here but today we are rejecting yesterday's candle suggesting that yes Nvidia could easily correct to the 130s again and the 130s is our major support level because it is also the neckline of this weird head and shoulders chart pattern right it uh this one has two shoulders right it is quite weird uh but still it is a quite important support area the 130s which is also very close to the 21 weekly moving average over here making this entire area a double support level in two different time frames therefore by losing the weekly moving average by losing the 130 support level on the daily chart we are going to materialize a sharper correction possibly to the 115 again all right which is our next technical support level so we got to watch out around this critical support level just like we got to watch out for this critical support level on the spy and this critical support level on the KQ and by the way guys regarding the Spy regarding the SNP I'm so sorry let's analyze the S&P index yes we are still going up we are still above the we are still above the weekly moving average however the past couple of weeks was quite problematic and this goes against against some statistics all right let me share a few statistics with you guys over here uh from a purely statistical point of view the second half of December is very good uh this is this over here is the S&P 500 half Monon returns since 1950 all right the second half of December goes up roughly almost 80% of the time it is the best it is the best time for you to buy stocks only from a statistical point of view of course but right now we are going down okay so right now if if if you pick like 10 years 10 random years since 1950 eight times in eight years you have positive a positive performance on the second half of December all right right now what we are experiencing this year of 2024 is a negative performance which makes us uh our around around the 20% when we actually go down all right so it is quite dramatic to see the Spy dropping that much roughly 3% in the last in the last half of December this year all right so it is quite dramatic and of course guys this data uh one of my clients who's part of my mentoring program gave me this information all right I got to tell you and the next year Pro probably in February I'm going to open another mentoring class but uh I will have less fewer places available as some of the current Maines have become my permanent clients in any case I will bring more news next year all right so this is my quick message for you guys now okay we are still maintaining the long-term bullish bias however medium-term speaking we could see a sharper correction ahead to our next support level regarding Tesla this one over here is is losing a double support level made by the 21-day EMA made by the 414 the previous alltime high from November 2021 whats more we are triggering a top signal on the weekly chart we are triggering this shooting star Candlestick pattern which from a statistical point of view is a bearish Candlestick pattern roughly uh 79% of the time as far as I remember it is a quite reliable bearish candle structure and all of this suggests more correction ahead for Tesla what's more we see a lower high lower low on the daily chart reversing the trend re breaking the pattern of higher highs higher lows right so that's quite problematic this suggests this suggests more correction in Tesla probably to the $358 next all right which is our next technical support support level I don't see any meaningful bullish reaction if we see one fantastic pro pro most likely Tesla is going to recover and the S the alltime high next however so far there is not a single meaningful bullish reaction on the weekly chart suggesting a bottom signal if we see one great Tesla will be a buy again and in this case guys it is very important for you to join our telegram channel to participate the 5% project because there I off for you crystal clear trading strategies in Tesla Nvidia spy CQ and many other stocks that are outside of most people's Raiders all right so it is very it is going to be very good for you to join us because there you get Crystal Clear signals Crystal Clear trading strategies with entry point exit points targets stop losses Etc there I'm going to I'm going to teach you how to trade the most important inflection point points the most important reversal candle structures reversal chart structures and of course to use a good risk management and it is free to join okay you you can join for seven days for free absolutely free I'm not going to charge you because as I always say as I always say our philosophy is to show quality service first and once you have seen the value of the service it is up to you to decide whether or not to join us we have traded hundreds of times together this year and our track record is very impressive just check out our website for more details for more information see if you like it all right remember it is free to try there you can you can download my exclusive ebook on technical analysis where I teach you the most important patterns in technical analysis therefore just join our educational project the 5% project is here for you the link is in this video's description all right now AMD bearish a possible bearish Pivot Point by losing the 118 117 area over here we are still very bearish we are still in a bare Trend making lower highs lower lows there is not a single higher high higher low there's not a single bullish reversal chart structure but Nathan what if AMD reacts and what if we see Amed breaking the previous top level around 127 along with the 21-day EMA okay in this case yes we are going to reverse technically reverse the bearish bias but so far there is no technical evidence suggesting that this scenario is going to materialize period remember my friends but we can react to the data we are showing right now not a single bullish reaction and by the way if you're still if you are still watching this video and you're are not a subscriber consider subscribing because you are watching a video on technical analysis for roughly 12 13 minutes right now my dear friend this channel is for you I never ask you guys to subscribe in the beginning of the video right I always wait for 10 15 minutes to ask you because only if you are really really interested in learning in understanding the technical patterns in trading in investing only if you have a real interest you are going to watch this video for more than 10 minutes all right most people can't stand watching so if you are still watching this channel is for you my dear friend so again subscribe and click the like button every single like means a lot really it means a lot to this channel to this small channel so click the like button to show some support always I always appreciate your audience your friendship all right now regarding paler guys paler is right now back to its congestion we are above the we are surprisingly surprisingly the 21 Day EMA is acting as a support level for us today all right I was not counting on that I was expecting that uh the $71 was going to be more important support area but uh here we are trying to bounce above the 21 Day EMA this is actually very good it is a very good bullish signal and uh if you ask me in my humble opinion only by losing the $71 we are going to technically trigger a meaningful bearish reversal suggesting a weekly pullback on the weekly chart possibly retesting the 21 weekly moving average all right so far we are still above both support levels so we are still in a in a Rel atively safe situation all right so either way paler is looking quite bullish there is no technical bearish reversal chart structure triggered yet but let's watch the $71 very very closely from here I'm going to keep you guys updated in this channel every single day every single day daily unbiased analysis for you join the 5% project or educational project if you want to learn more about trading if you want to trade with me if you want to take advantage of our signals of our strategies just take a look at my website the link is in this video's description thank you very much for audience my dear friends see you guys Next Year stay safe bye-bye
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