저자: Nathan · 외국인
요약 보기
시장 강세 지속 중이나 SPY·QQQ가 지지선에서 멀리 떨어져 리스크/리워드가 불리하다고 판단, 조정(눌림목)을 기다리는 입장. SPY 576, QQQ 503 지지 이탈 시 조정 가능성. 엔비디아는 135 저항 상단 신호 시 21일 EMA 조정 가능, 5/28 실적 앞둠. 테슬라는 289 지지까지 약 16% 하락 가능성 언급하나 패닉 불필요. AMD는 슈팅스타 등 천장 신호 출현, 1시간 21EMA 지지 여부가 관건. 팔란티어는 125 지지 유지 시 강세, 이탈 시 21일 EMA까지 눌림 가능. 기술적 분석의 미래 예측 무용성도 언급.
다듬은 글
All right, so the bullish sentiment persists and that this insane rally seems to be unstoppable. Now you may be asking, is now a good time to buy or is it crazy to buy right now that we are going up a lot far away from our support levels? I mean, what if it corrects? Well, in today's video, we are going to study the market calmly and serenally as we always do here on this channel.
My name is Nathan. Welcome to another daily study. And uh yes, guys, I have been traveling for the past few days, for the last few days, but uh now the channel is back in full force. It's a pleasure to be here again. Thank you very much for waiting for me, for giving me for allowing me to take this vacation.
Okay, so thank you very much. Now, let's get back to our analysis because right now we see SPY going up nicely. We are clearly bullish. We are making higher highs, higher lows above the 21day EMA, which is right now pointing upwards by the way, acting as a possible support level in the future. And that's how I see the situation.
Any pullback to this 21-day EMA area could be just another buying opportunity if we see a good meaningful bottom signal near this support level. All right. So, answering the questions I made in the beginning in the right right in the beginning of this video, is it a good time to buy right now to buy stocks in general?
Well, not right now. In general, not right now because we see SPY QQQ above our support levels. Okay. If we see any pullback, any pullback, then yes. Then if we see a clear bottom signal near our support levels then okay then it is going to be a very nice buying opportunity. But uh right now we are far away from our support levels.
We are maintaining an insanely bullish rally over here. So the riskreward relationship is not that attractive anymore. At least not to me. Okay? not according to my personal style. I prefer to buy stocks near support levels because the riskreward relationship is uh is more often than not very very good near support levels.
Okay, so if I'm wrong, okay, I'm going to lose a little money. Okay, however, if I'm right, fantastic. I can capture the next nice rally over here. And this is it. Okay. Always mitigating losses and maximizing profits. That's how we work here on this channel. So I prefer buying near support levels, not right now.
But well, if you want to buy, well, you are totally correct. As long as you have a clear risk management strategy, as long as you know where to set your stop-loss, where your targets is going to be, then all right, then you are totally correct in this context. But for me, I prefer to see a pullback.
Now, what could trigger a nice pullback on SPY over here? Well, if we lose this key point over here, 576. I mean we have been watching this key point for the past few weeks right now and uh this week we broke it. Okay, we broke the 576 and this Monday we retested this key point as a support level again.
Okay, so it is clearly the most important support level mediumterm speaking on the daily chart. If we see spy losing momentum, losing the 576 then okay then I see a sharper correction ahead. For now we are maintaining the bullish bias. No major movements uh no major surprises over here. TheQ shares a very similar reading.
We see the 503 area as our main key point. It was a previous resistance level here. support here, support here, support here. Now, a support level again, if we lose this key point, then all right, a a pullback to the 21-day EMA is totally possible, plausible, expected, and even desirable because again, we may see more buying opportunities near our support levels.
All right. Now Nvidia just like spy just like theq is flying a lot all right simply a lot and right now for some reason I do not have the data on trading view on our stocks over here so I don't know how they are performing in the post market but uh guys Nvidia will Nvidia will report earnings let me see May 28th all right in more than 10 days.
All right. So the volatility will increase after earnings. All right. Certainly it will increase. But for now we got to pay attention to a few key resistance levels like the 135 area, a previous stop level which is right now acting as a resistance level. Again Nvidia is struggling a lot to break this key point.
Clearly it is struggling to break this resistance level over here. So if we see Nvidia losing momentum, making a bottom bottom signal, so sorry, a top signal near this resistance level, then okay, then we may see a sharper correction ahead possibly to the 21day EMA. Nathan, what's a top signal to you?
Could be any any bearish reaction strong enough to materialize a bearish candle. preferably preferably breaking the 130s support level again. All right, if we close below it, then okay, it will only reinforce the idea that Nvidia is going to make a sharper correction on the daily chart. And guys, remember when when I say that uh we could see a pullback over here, remember pullbacks are not reversals, okay?
A reversal means well a reversal of the trend. All right. As far as I know, a any pullback over here is not going to technically reverse the uptrend. We are still maintaining the bullish bias. And that this is why I'm telling you guys, any pullback could be another buying opportunity. Okay? Because that's why pullbacks are for, okay?
We use these corrections to our advantage to buy near support levels with good riskreward relationship. So if we see any top signal on Nvidia near the 135 resistance level, okay, let's see. Let's commonly wait for a correction back to this 21day EMA. And guys, Nvidia and and by the way, only then we may buy Nvidia again.
All right. And guys, Nvidia, Tesla, AMD, right? Palanteer all these stocks they are they are very similar okay they are slightly different but they look very similar they are all far away from their support levels they are all flying a lot and this is because they are high beta stocks okay they will follow the market they are more vulnerable to the broad markets sentiment and this is why they will perform like this okay and Nvidia Tesla AMD Palanteer etc.
Uh we do not see clear clear amazing fantastic buy signals on these stocks yet on these stocks yet because because they they are just following the market. Okay. And this is why I'm telling you if we see SPY and theQ correcting all these stocks they may trigger very nice buying opportunities soon. Okay.
Very very soon. So, if you ask me, in my personal opinion, I would love to see a pullback. All right? I would love to see a pullback, to see these stocks correcting back to their support levels, a healthy pullback. All right? Then we'll see if they will offer us another buying opportunity or not. If they do, fantastic.
We're going to catch it. If they don't, okay, let's trade another other stocks, right? We always have plenty of opportunities over here. So, life continues. Okay, we got to always move on. And guys, although our channel was although I was far, okay, because I was traveling, although this channel wasn't uh I I didn't record any video over here, but uh our telegram channel was still active during this entire time and several of of the recommendations we have given over there are performing very well.
Thank you very much. So, but uh as I told our members there over there, it is very difficult to find new opportunities in these stocks over here right now precisely because of the correlation they have with the market. So, if a correction occurs, wonderful. Possibly we'll have more buy signals. Otherwise, we will keep a close eye on these stocks and you can join our channel as well, okay?
And have access to our trade signals and and strategies in real time. Of course, of course, we are is king in the gaming community. So, we have a very practical focus, okay? practical focus to help you to trade commonly using risk management, maximizing your profits while mitigating your losses, trading professionally.
We are the 5% project, a community of over 200 traders learning to trade the market consistently and uh yes, you are invited to join us over there. It is totally free to test. Okay, our service is free to try. So, you can get to you can get to know us for free and see if you like it. The link is in this video's description right here below in the description for more information.
Okay, come on, join us over there. Trade with us now guys. Tesla, like Nvidia, if you ask me, deserves a pullback. This one deserves a correction back to our 21day EMA or maybe to retest this area over here around the 289 as a support level because as far as I know since we closed this gap over here, right 218, we have been trading inside a congestion.
All right. So, it is totally normal to see Tesla making a medium-term correction back to this support level. Absolutely normal. Not a reason to panic. I know. I know. Because if we see a correction over here to this support level, we are talking about a 16% drop. Okay? So, that's a lot. But uh still not a reason to panic because again any pullback could be another buying opportunity as long as the bullish bias remains intact.
Now we are insanely bullish. AMD is making a top signal. Okay. Uh if you ask me Nathan what is a top signal? Guys, we see a bearish reaction. This bearish reaction has a name. It is a shooting star candle pattern. Okay, shooting star. A statistically reliable bearish candle. And right now, today we are closing below yesterday's low.
Closing below this resistance level around 114. I'm so sorry, 115. Okay, we are clearly closing below this key point over here. So we are losing support levels triggering a classic top signal over here on the daily chart. So if you ask me AMD is supposed to seek our next resistance levels like this blue line over here around the 104 or maybe even the 21day EMA.
However, on the 1 hour chart, I understand that uh right now we are just making another pullback to this 21 to this 21hour EMA and uh and we are stabilizing over here. Okay. So, okay, that's interesting. All right. So, uh we are maintaining the shortterm bullish bias. But guys, it is a very dangerous position for AMD.
If MED fails in holding its price above the 21-hour EMA, it's over. Okay, it is going to confirm the idea of a top signal and the 21-day EMA is going to be our next technical target. Now, Palanteer is well still fantastic, very bullish, maintaining the price above this resistance level. Okay, which is right now a support level 125.
So this is a very good very technical movement on Palunteer and this is not only good but u it is technically acceptable. Okay, I do like situations like this. It is very clear. Of course I don't like as much as your like and your subscription because if you're still watching this video over here, it's because you do like technical analysis.
So consider so consider subscribing and click the like button to support this channel as well. All right. I thank you very much for your audience my dear friends. Now what's the key inflection point on Palunteer 125? Okay. If we lose the 125 a pullback to this 21day EMA is totally plausible, desirable, not a reason to panic at all.
Okay. possibly another buying opportunity. Nathan, what if we lose this 21day MA? Then all right, then we may see a reversal. But remember, the future does not exist. Okay, we can't predict the future. We can only react properly to what we see. That's why we use technical analysis to react properly because TA is not here to help us in predicting the future.
TA is useless for that. All right. Just like fundamental analysis, tape reading, algo trading, etc. These are all useless for predicting the future. We only use technical analysis in conjunction with risk management to react properly to what we see. So 125, if we see Palanteer losing 125, then okay, a pullback is possible.
Then we'll see. As long as we stay above 125, incredibly bullish. All right, these are my humble insights for our stocks for today. My dear friends, thank you so much for your audience. See you guys tomorrow. Stay safe. Bye-bye.
Comments 0