저자: JonathanBoer/SteveSosnick · 외국인
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버핏·멍거의 가치투자 접근은 재현 가능하다는 견해가 있으나, 현재 밸류에이션이 높아 적정가 종목을 찾기 어렵고 경쟁도 치열해졌다는 평가가 중심이다. 두 사람의 영향: 버핏은 멍거의 조언으로 담배꽁초식 투자에서 고품질 기업을 적정가에 사는 방식으로 전환했고, 이것이 성공의 큰 요인이었다. 성장주 vs 가치주: 애플은 성장주이지만 가치주로 변해가는 과정에 있으며 여전히 성장주 가격에 거래된다. BYD는 가치 가격에 산 성장주의 예다. 핵심은 가치 가격에 거래되는 성장주를 찾는 것이다. 후계자: 두 사람 수준의 영향력을 가진 투자자는 나오기 어렵다는 의견이다. 현재 시장: 밸류에이션이 전반적으로 높아 저평가 종목이 드물고, 버크셔의 규모 때문에 작은 저평가 기업을 찾기 어렵다. 금리: 연준 금리 인하 시점에 집착하기보다 장기 보유 가능한 기업을 고르는 것이 중요하다는 주장이 나왔다. 장기 투자자는 50년 뒤에도 존속할 기업을, 단기 투자자는 더 짧은 관점이 필요하다고 언급했다. 특정 종목 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 1~3개월 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
Jonathan let me start with you a lot of focus on how Munger and Buffett invest looking for attractive valuations on stocks can their approach be replicated right now uh can their approach be replicated yeah it it can be what differentiated and is a great quote uh Buffett uh once said that if he had just listened to Ben Graham and not Charlie he'd be a lot poorer and Charlie was an important teacher to Warren in fact that he told him to invest in high quality companies at fair prices instead of doing the cigar butt type of investing that he was doing before so that was a huge influence on buffets and Brook Shear's investment success Jonathan uh has did Charlie mger change your life is that why you got into this business I mean there's a lot of different reasons why I got into business but birkar hathway was an inspiration I mean he they what they built was fantastic and it's never going to be replicated again and he was kind enough to write and publicly speak about all of his wisdom and share it with people and that's something that I'm grateful for and he inspired a whole generation of of investors at the same time I gotta say Steve bringing you bringing you into this there are a lot of value investors out there but it's not what's sort of trendy right now for sure right like growth stocks have been outperforming pretty consistently so how do you you know how should we think about that then the legacy of value investing when growth is so dominant well here's the key Julie um you know one of their biggest Investments is Apple which is a growth stock but it's actually I think actually morphing to a value stock in front of our eyes but it's still priced like a growth stock so you've got both you've got both aspects of it um you know byd was a value stock that had was a growth stock that he bought at Value prices you know I think so that's really to me in in many ways the key is finding finding the opportunities where these are where there are value price growth stocks being priced like value stocks and Munger Monger specifically uh was was terrific at that uh alongside Warren Buffett remember also you know I I I always appreciate the Mr inside guy you know somebody who spent most of his career as sort of Mr inside I like that he was Mr inside to Warren Buffett's outside um and sort of the guy who could propose things to him without uh fear of conflict or the guy who could say no to him which there were probably many people who could say no to Warren Buffett jonath let me go uh go back to you Charlie Monger of course um not here I'm passed away um but Warren Buffett once he leaves for whatever reason is there another group of investing legends that you look to the reality is these two folks have trained generations of human beings on how to invest who is who takes that mantle now no one they are in class by themselves uh they're they not only were great investors in buying pieces of paper they bought entire companies and businesses and and put them together and their legacy is going to be this company that's built to last for for Generations but there's no one investor who who's going to take the Charlie Munger or uh Warren Buffett you have have that level of influence it's it's uh you know we we lost a legend well and and it's difficult to imagine replicating buying whole companies for example because the size of companies the economy has changed particularly in the US but Steve you know both Buffett and Munger have talked about it's really hard to find those good values right now right Munger uh has has talked about things being very overpriced so what what are investors to do then even if they did want to replicate that kind of activity well you know there's a couple of ways to unpack the question first of all is valuations are High um and so when valuations in general are high there aren't a lot of values by definition um whether or not value stocks are out of favor or not even they're historically on the high side in terms of pricing secondly um they created a lot of I'm not going to say imitators but they inspired a lot of people to to play a similar game we have you know trillions of dollars allocated to PRI to private Equity or or strategies that that used sort of similar by the by the company mentality um and so there's a lot more competition for them than there was when they started you know think about even now some of their bigger yeah some of their bigger names some of their more recent large Investments these are big companies because they're investing such huge amounts of money that they they can't necessarily buy you know find these small undervalued companies they need to find big companies that the market has overlooked find something different about them that's really not easy to do especially when you're talking about such huge numbers um as the size of Berkshire hathways portfolio uh Steve La last word to you um the current debate in in the market seems to be when the FED is going to cut interest rates now if you talk to Warren Buffett and Charlie mugger both of them would probably said we don't give a crap we're holding these companies darn near forever an investor watching yaho Finance right now should they take that approach forget what is happening in the markets from day to day buy shares of a Coca-Cola American Express if they have wide Moes around their business and hold it for 50 years if your time frame is is that long sure I mean you know again the the the good and the bad thing is we're talking about you know a man who died at 99 years old God bless him he was doing what he loved for for decades and and unfortunately Warren Buffett is is not that much younger Father Time remains undefeated sadly but you know if you're a very long-term investor if you're a young investor with a longtime Horizon you should just be thinking about what companies might be around for for 50 years and and even so and it's not the hot companies all the time because if you look at what the market loved 50 years ago many of these companies are not in business these guys found the companies that would have the lasting track record so if you can find them you hold on to them for dear life um and it doesn't matter if the fed's going to cut rates in May or June or July it matters whether these companies have the staining power and the earning power and the business Acumen to be the Investments for you for the long term if you're if you're of Advan AG watching this well you have to be a bit more short-term oriented yeah thanks to you both so much it's great to see both of you Jonathan Boer president of Boer value and Steve snik interactive brokers Chief strategist thank you thank you
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