저자: ThomasHayes,GregoryWarren · 외국인
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버크셔 해서웨이의 경영 승계와 가치 전망을 다룬 토론이다. 결론: 버크셔는 버핏·멍거 이후에도 분권형 구조 덕분에 운영이 유지될 것이며, 주가는 상당 부분 승계 리스크를 이미 반영한 상태다. 경영 승계 전망: Hayes는 버크셔의 미래에 완전한 신뢰를 표명했다. 자회사들이 스스로 운영되고 본사 직원은 26명 수준이며, 고객들은 여전히 Dairy Queen, iPhone, GEICO 등을 이용할 것이라고 봤다. 그는 멍거가 버핏의 오른팔이 아니라 독자적 투자자였다는 점을 강조했다. 사례로 2001년 멍거가 테노(Teno)에 약 1,000만 달러를 투자해 3~4년 만에 약 8,000만 달러를 회수하고, 이를 리로(Lelu)에 투입해 약 5억 달러로 불렸다는 일화를 소개했다. 밸류에이션: Morningstar의 Gregory Warren은 적정가치 대비 주가가 약 10~12% 저평가되어 있다고 봤다. 지난 10년 정도 투자자들이 버핏 부재를 이미 밸류에이션에 반영해 왔다고 평가했다. 버핏의 역할 변화: 버핏은 최근 20년간 일상 운영보다 자본 배분 결정과 재무제표 검토에 집중해 왔으며, 본사 기능이 작아 승계 후에도 운영 공백은 크지 않다는 논리다. 리스크·프리미엄: 버핏·멍거 체제가 만든 '신뢰 프리미엄'(금융위기 때 자금 조달 기업이 10~11%의 높은 대가를 지불한 사례)은 축소될 가능성이 크며, 멍거도 1~2%p 감소를 예상했다고 언급했다. 출연자 전망: Hayes는 버크셔의 장기 신뢰를 긍정했고, Warren은 밸류에이션 저평가와 프리미엄 축소를 함께 봤다.
다듬은 글
simply put Berkshire hathway would not be the same without Charlie Munger it's a tall ask for someone to follow in the footsteps of someone so instrumental to berkshire's success but Munger himself noted in 2021 he believed Vice chair Greg AEL would keep the culture at the investment conglomerate and in a letter last week Buffett acknowledged that at 93 his own time May soon come to a close but assured shareholders Berkshire was built to last with more on the future now let's talk about Thomas let's talk about more on the future Thomas Hayes is joined as great Hill Capital chairman and managing member alongside Gregory Warren Morning Star senior stock analyst Tom let's start with you um are you confident in this you know upcoming generation of Brookshire as we've been talking about throughout the hour we don't know nearly as much or at least have not heard nearly as much a from the likes of a Greg AEL as we have from Buffett and Munger well there's no question uh there's going to be full confidence in the future of Berkshire pathway the businesses run themselves you know people are going to continue to get their ice cream at Dairy Queen they're going to continue to use their iPhones they're going to continue to save money on their insurance at Geico you know the the home office right now the whole concept of a decentralized business they have 26 employees at the home office and tens of thousands of employees throughout the operating subsidiaries but I did want to say one quick thing about Warren Buffett you know a lot of people look at about Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett they look at Charlie Munger as Warren's right-hand man but I think people forget that Charlie was his own man sometimes referenced as the Oracle of Pasadena and I want to give you one key example that he did in 2001 which really inspired me and uh hasn't been talked about a lot in the last 24 hours he bought a little company himself uh stock in a company called Teno and Teno was actually kind of a Ben Graham net net he always talks about buying uh wonderful businesses at a fair price this was a fair business at a wonderful price the stock had fallen 80% from 200000 to 2001 he read about this company in Barons he said I've been reading Barons for 50 years and uh I got one investment idea here's what he did the stock was at $1.50 $150 to $2 down from $10 he bought $10 million worth within three four years the stock was up to he made about $80 million between the stock and the debt that he bought he took that $80 million and he gave it to lelu in the early 2000s when China was out of favor and lelu turned the 80 million into a half a billion so two chess moves the Oracle of Pasadena turned $10 million of his own money into half a billion dollars and I think people always forget that and you know Munger always said I didn't intend to get rich I just wanted to become independent I guess I overshot it's a good it's a good I wish I can replicate that track record Greg let me get over to you and and you watching burshire hathway shares all day follow me here do you think Burkshire Shares are overvalued that investors are underpricing the risk when Warren Buffett uh is no longer leading this company there seems to be a lot of belief that the culture will live on uh but that is a wildly untested thesis yeah I think if it's it's kind of difficult to look at from that perspective I mean relative to our Fair Value Estimate right now the stock is about you know 10 12% undervalued um but I think it over the past I mean I've been covering Berkshire now for 15 plus years and i' say probably over the last 10 years or so I think investors have sort of discounted the fact that you know buff is not going to be there forever um and I think that that's been sort of baked into um how the valuation is sort of evolved over that time frame and if you look at it you know from from Buffett's perspective he's really made a concerted effort over the past two decades to really sort of focus investors the shareholders on the businesses on what they have sort of built here this decentralized conglomerate that really takes care of itself I mean the fact that there are so few people at corporate and the buffit day-to-day duties have really just involved looking at potential Capital allocation decisions he spends far more time reading through K's and q's and than he does sort of worrying about you know how one plant is running or how another operation is running he's really sort of left that down to the managers um down the line and that's kind of the beauty of the business model right now is that it's sort of self-running and there's not a whole lot that the the corporate is going to need to do going forward even without Buffet at the helm now I brought this up a few years ago at one of the annual meetings that you know having mon ER having Buffet both there always gave Burkshire sort of an edge and we saw that during the financial crisis we saw during other periods of time where people that were in need of capital and need of Buffett seal of approval would come to Berkshire and be willing to pay 10 11% on the amount of capital they were getting from from from Buffett and Company just to have that seal of approval attached to them and I think that Burkshire will continue to sort of play that role in the future because they're always going to have a lot of capital A lot of excess capital on the books but I think that that premium that they they've been able to Garner you know with Buffett at the helm is probably going to be less than it was you know in the past and when I asked that question actually at the meeting Charlie actually agreed with me and said that you know that's that's probably likely to be the case that he could see a one or two percent percentage reduction Leave It to Charlie I guess to be sort of realistic even if it was not in his favor thanks to you both really appreciate respective got to leave it there Thomas Hayes great Hill Capital chairman and managing member good to see you and Gregory Warren Morning Star senior stock analyst thanks for your perspective
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