저자: Kevin · 외국인
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SpaceX IPO 후 주가가 상장 직후 급등 뒤 하락했다고 과거 예측이 맞았다고 주장. 로보택시 서비스는 축소되고 FSD 구독·Optimus 로봇에 집중해야 한다고 봄. 스페이스X와 테슬라 합병 시나리오를 가정해 2030년 적정가치를 계산(합병 시 약 231달러, 스페이스X 단독 약 139달러, 테슬라 단독 약 376달러). 현재 가격 대비 매수 목표가는 스페이스X 80달러, 테슬라 225달러로 제시하며 그 이하 매수를 지지.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone, this is Kevin. People ask me, "Kevin, you were right." You predicted that SpaceX could grow by 30% after the IPO, and then gradually decline in price. The taste of being right. So now people are asking, "Kevin, when is a really good time to buy SpaceX stock?" I don't guarantee I'll be right, but let's discuss the predictions.
Actually, I was, well, it's kind of incredible. So this is Port Canaveral right here. And I grew up in Florida. I mention this because we were just passing by on a Disney cruise ship—you know, "get too progressive and you'll go bankrupt." I guess I'm being a little " progressive" in this video. We drove past the landing platforms for the boosters, two next to each other.
Pretty cool. I'll put it up on Instagram if you want to watch, just in case I don't have the patience to put it in a video. You can follow me on Instagram as meet Kevin and see them. They look a lot more rusty in person, but when I saw them, I thought, "Wow, this is kind of weird, because I'm literally sitting here writing a SpaceX stock analysis , and here are these platforms, and I'm like, "Oh, this is really cool." So, I prepared an analysis for SpaceX and I have three different forecasts for the company.
I have one prediction that only involves SpaceX, and one that only involves Tesla. You'll soon understand why, because this video is about SpaceX, not Tesla, right? And my main prediction is an assumption that I've been building and that we've been talking about on the channel for many months, and now more and more people are talking about it , it's becoming more and more obvious.
You know, I made a video about 4 months ago about Elon Musk's upcoming sneaky plan—well, "sneaky" in the title, but essentially it's about how he can gain control of Tesla by forcing SpaceX to buy it. So the base case scenario that we're going to look at is the forecast, and why I think these things are reasonable for valuing SpaceX and Tesla combined.
So we'll start with some predictions for Tesla, which I think will be quite interesting. But first, something that I think is also pretty cool. This cabin has a jacuzzi. This is one of their concierge-class rooms. So, I'm going to go there because I'm feeling a little tired and I need a little rest.
Okay, now let's get started. So, first of all, I'm going to make a few assumptions about Tesla. This is quite important. Because if the companies merge, you'll want to know what the valuation is or what proportion of the valuation will be for these different components of Tesla. Because they will, in fact, be the drivers of SpaceX's valuation.
And you'll see, we'll get to that in a moment, but my guess is —and I know this is a big statement—but I really think they're going to shut down... I shouldn't have started the video with that. So if I start the video with this part, people will say, "Dude, Kevin, you're crazy." But here it is . I really think they will shut down the robotaxi service.
I think the robotaxi service will die because it remains at 99.9%. And they just realized, " Come on, we can make a lot more money just by selling these cars and FSD subscriptions." In other words, I'm saying that FSD is so cool that they realize: why do this low-margin taxi service now when we could be making money on Optimus robots and selling people Tesla cars themselves with this FSD that's running at 99.9% or a few nines after the decimal point, right?
I think Elon is saying that we want the FSD for the robotaxi to be at 99. Sell it to people with two nines. You know, 99.99—that's perfectly acceptable. Okay, let's go through some numbers. When they realize that, I think they will generate—and all of this analysis is for the next four years. I think they will receive an income of about $34,000 per car.
This will be quite stable. I think Tesla will sell about 4 million cars by the end of 2030. And I believe that this will generate revenue of about $137 billion . I will leave their margins at 18% excluding loans. We have now seen margins at 16%. I actually think it will probably stabilize at 18%. Mainly because electric vehicles are higher- margin vehicles.
I think Tesla has very good manufacturing processes, and since the S and X are now consolidated on the Y and 3 assembly lines, I think that's a reasonable margin. So, that's built into my assumption. Well, I have a lease here for about seven, uh, billion, and 18% of the operating profit from that. Next are services.
I only set a 14% margin on services. So, profitable, but not too much, right? It's better to just sell cars. But they are becoming profitable in the service sector. So, by the end of 2030, in my opinion, it is quite reasonable to have 14% here. Eh, total energy revenue, I think, will grow to $50 billion , but I'll take the lower end of the operating margin for that.
Now, keep in mind: when I say "operating," it's gross profit minus operating expenses, like selling, administrative, and general expenses, and R&D. That's why I set lower margin indicators, because I calculate net operating profit . So I think, uh, for energy it would be about 22%. We have about 11 billion in energy revenue.
I only put in $200 million a year from insurance. I really think Tesla insures its own cars very well, but the problem is that getting licenses in every state is not easy. Well, the growth of this direction is not a reason to invest in stocks. I really think they will have operating income from semi-trucks within four years.
Eh, so I'm only betting on about a billion dollars in operating profit from this. This will be one of those slower-moving projects. This is probably more of a project for 2040. So this may even be too optimistic . I have set a target for operating profit growth from FSD subscriptions from 800 million to 2.5 billion.
And that's why I say we should abandon the idea of robotaxis. And I'm not saying not to sell CyberCab. I really think a CyberCab or Robovan would sell very well. Make this damn Robovan and sell it to me. I have seven children. I would really like a Robovan. And I don't care if I have to sit in the front, do it like in a semi-truck: I sit in the middle in the front, and the whole family is behind me.
Put the steering wheel down and just sell it to me. Sell it to me at a premium. I'm ready to buy it, and I think a lot of people will buy it too. So I'm really excited about that, but less optimistic about robotaxi, mainly because, you know, the launch has been really slow, and I think it will continue to be that way .
This will be a difficult fight. So I call it the icing on the cake—the robotaxi. I probably shouldn't have started the video with this, because some people will think, "What? You think robo-taxis are going to disappear? I'm closing this video." Whatever. I'm just being conservative , right? Good. Uh, Tesla bought it.
So this is Optimus the robot, right? Er, revenue from Tesla. In fact, I think that by the end of 2030—this is perhaps a bold assumption— we will be able to produce about 500,000, no, 50,000 robots at $50,000 each. That's about 25 billion in gross revenue with a margin of about 20%. We are targeting a margin of about 25%, because I believe that at the initial stage it is possible to set a higher markup.
That's about $6.2 billion in operating profit from Optimus. The reason I say $50,000 per robot, and not $25,000 as we heard before, is inflation. And I think the R&D that's going into these manipulators is going to be so serious that Elon will say, "Dude , I need to make money on this, and the stock is down, so I need to increase the margin." And honestly, I think people will be buying them in four years, you know.
So, that's all for the end of 2030. Uh, I think I was generous with the time frame, or maybe not. You know, in the last earnings call we heard, "Oh, we're already moving from Optimus 3 to Optimus 4," even though Optimus 3 was supposed to be a mass product. Now we are already saying that it is Optimus 4 that will go into mass production.
So, it will just take more time. And that suits me. Wait a minute. I'm really starting to sweat. Oh, this is so refreshing. Okay, now SpaceX. So, launch services. This is what really fascinates me. Starship will become the working vehicle of the future. It won't be a Falcon 9. We know this because they're actually no longer taking orders for Falcon 9.
No more orders for Falcon 9. So why are they stopping taking orders for Falcon 9 after 2029? Well, because the main goal is payload. You need to sell. And Falcon 9 is working today, but the reason we're focusing on Starship is not to fly to Mars. This is just a marketing ploy. This is because Starship can carry a large payload .
And I always say: the more, the better. Therefore, I believe that the price advantage of Starship will be quite significant, but it will take time to bring this device to the right path. I think there will be a lot of failures. And I believe that it is realistic to achieve stable revenues and net profit closer to 2030.
Even that may be too optimistic. But I think we could achieve an operating profit of $10-20 million per launch. And I think that initially they will probably be able to do about a hundred launches a year . And then, in the long term, that will increase to 100-200 launches, depending on demand. This is all assuming there is no major economic recession.
Of course, this will postpone everything. Nothing in this video constitutes personalized financial advice. I am not your personal financial advisor. I don't know your situation, and I recommend avoiding debt. Don't buy things on credit, okay? Buy what you can afford, okay? For your own blood money. That's my opinion.
So, uh, there 's execution risk at every level here , right? But I believe that startup services could generate about $2 billion in operating profit. Note that this is actually smaller than Optimus the robot. For the Optimus robot, I predict around 6.2. Oh, that's really cute. Look at this baby. I hope they don't break that glass.
They are playing with the light switch. Hey . Just not very much. Good. You can break it. And you have chocolate on your face. Hmm, that's quite interesting. It's glass that can be turned on and off to see through it or not. This is really cool. But, um , it puts a voltage on the glass. And this glass is probably worth $10,000.
Actually, it's this , that, and that panel over there. So these panels cost probably $2,500 each. Maybe three thousand each. I don't want to be the one responsible for this. Try to cherish good things. Good. So, launch services— $2 billion. Hmm, that's just a fraction of what Optimus will give. So we do expect Optimus to be profitable sooner than SpaceX's launch services, but that's still a ways off.
Keep in mind that this is about 50 % of Wall Street's optimistic forecasts. My assessment of SpaceX is probably pretty pessimistic, but I think most of these Wall Street guys are paid to protect the stock, their bonuses are tied to the company's performance , and they're acting like little children, exclaiming, "Oh, that's such a discount." Why are stocks falling and likely to continue falling?
But now I've gotten to the point where I'm like, "Okay, you know, course participants are starting to ask me questions, and I'm not trying to sell you a course." Well, you know, alpha membership and our streams for course participants, but we were discussing this on a stream the other day, and people are like, "Kevin, you were right about SpaceX; what do you think the price of entry is now?" Of course, because obviously there 's an entry point where you say, "Oh, this is actually a good deal." So I think my numbers are becoming even more conservative.
Mind you, robotaxi would only add to my ratings if I were wrong, although I think there is a lot to be made by focusing on selling the best ADAS car out there . And, uh, they have the best car with ADAS, and their advantage may last for a while. Starlink operating profit. So that's 2 billion in operating profit from launch services.
Starlink's operating profit is currently around $4.4 billion. I actually expect it to grow by about 30%. Compound interest, compound interest. Well, you know, that gives you something like five, then 6 with something, and then it's closer to eight, right. So you keep moving forward. I have approximately, did I calculate the compound interest of 30 %?
Oh, I was counting on a rate of 35%. I calculate this operating profit , since the current one is already 4.4 billion. I have an operating profit of 15 billion. Wall Street bulls expect $44 billion by the end of 2030. Maybe I'm being too conservative, but I think they spent a lot of money on advertising before the IPO and tried to artificially increase the number of subscriptions to stoke interest before going public and create the illusion of high growth rates.
I think it's a bit exaggerated, and there will be competition, but , you know, whatever. I think it's a great product, but I do n't think it will grow that fast. AI infrastructure, Wall Street estimates it at 4 billion. First, I came up with my own numbers. And then he looked at Wall Street's valuations.
So, I came out with 2.5 billion. I got this amount by assuming about a 5% return on capital on $50 billion. This is essentially a 5% return on investment . Not including leverage, assuming it's pure cash. I know they borrow sometimes. So this may change the profitability indicators somewhat. But that's how I reached my operating income of 2.5 billion.
So, if you combine all of this for a combined company—and I'll explain how I see such a merger—I think that by the end of 2030, the potential combined operating income could be $67.4 billion. So what does this actually entail ? This assumes that we can double the number of cars sold. This could be a mistake.
Although I have to say, this is an important component, because if we remove this, we will soon discard some things and see how it affects the shares. But the assumption that they can double their car deliveries, or perhaps the assumption that they can do 100 Starship launches with a profit of $20 million per launch.
Maybe not. Starlink with a profitability of 35%, in my opinion , is quite reasonable. 2.5 billion for AI infrastructure, in my opinion, is also quite reasonable. The remaining points, in my opinion, are also quite acceptable. What about Optimus robots : can we reach $6.2 billion in operating revenue by then?
I hope so, because I want to see robotics develop. But maybe that's too optimistic, right? Maybe all this needs more time. But I'm assuming that there will be some form of bear market and Tesla will eventually be acquired by SpaceX—people will get mad at me for saying that, but I'm going to say it. I calculated these figures based on the assumption that if for some terrible reason Tesla stock drops to $100, that's when SpaceX will come in and take it over.
It's like a trigger point. I'm not saying they will necessarily fall to $100 a share . I'm just saying that at $100 a share, this is a $ 300 billion company . You can just use SpaceX to buy Tesla. In that case, the number of SpaceX shares outstanding would increase from about 7.5 billion to about 11 billion.
This is, of course, very important because we need to calculate earnings per share. So if I take 21% for interest and taxes, that's a very rough estimate, considering that Tesla's corporate taxes due to incentives in the space and energy industries along with depreciation are likely to be much lower.
But I also take certain percentages into account. So I'm just simplifying it, even oversimplifying it , by taking 21%. That leaves me with after- tax income, net income of about $53 billion , divided by 11 billion shares outstanding, giving me earnings per share of about $4.84. In my opinion, the value of the combined company at that time would be $327.
So, if you buy this company for $80 per share, and at the end of 2030 its future value is $327, you will have a rate of return of 42.2% as your annual return on investment over the next four years. The only thing I think would be better than this is investing in a house hack or reinvesting. This is not a call for investment.
We are not accepting investors at this time. Of course, this is biased. I should n't even have said that. We do not make any predictions. I don't...well, you know, don't judge me, bro. But I mean, how can you not be optimistic about your own company? We are a nine-figure company . We have almost $100 million in unencumbered real estate at market value.
Especially after completing our developments, we will exceed this figure. This is simply incredible. So anyway, focusing on SpaceX here, what if I separate the companies and Tesla doesn't get acquired? So if Tesla doesn't exist, I believe that at an acquisition price of $80, with $2 billion in launch services, $15 billion in Starlink operating income, and $2.5 billion in AI infrastructure operating income, EPS would be $2.
This is based on 7.4 billion shares outstanding, effectively giving a fair market share price of $139. In other words, my forecast doesn't really give SpaceX much upside above its IPO price until the end of 2030. The only way to grow significantly is to buy a Tesla at $100, which would be a very good discount.
If you buy SpaceX at $80 and it's worth $140 by the end of 2030, you'll have a 14.8% annual return, which is still great. This is still very good, but there are also risks. And that's why it's worth setting a high bar, in case of errors in execution or if everything takes longer than we expected. Well, you know, sometimes things go faster than we expect, but often they drag on for a longer period of time.
And for such cases, it is worth establishing some form of reasonable discount. So , again, let me simplify this. Let me...someone in the comments, I read them all the time. Maybe not, but someone wrote, "Yeah, every time you do that, you're distracting yourself." I don't think they actually sound like that, but that's how it sounded when I read it, because I thought, " You're being rude to me." But I'm going to do it anyway because other people in the comments are saying, " Kevin, I really appreciate these pointers and summaries." Okay, I'm not done yet, because we still need to...I'll wrap up the "no Tesla" conversation, and then move on to the Tesla-only evaluation.
But let me make a quick comparison between a beginner and a professional. Good. OK. The newbie looks at SpaceX and doesn't make any predictions about what their future revenues might be. They listen to Wall Street guys who are paid millions of dollars to push Elon, you know, play along with him so he can get loans and whatever he wants, because they make commissions and they want to go to every potential IPO and say, "Yo, I want to go to an IPO with you." " Hey, we'll take a good commission for this and give you good institutional research." The newbie listens to these businessmen and says, "Oh, this is underrated today." Professionals look and say, " Let's be sensible with some of these numbers." If we actually launch Starship and get about $2 billion in operating income in the future, and Starlink grows at a rate of 35% per year for the next four years, then this stock could be worth $140.
By the end of 2030, that's 4 years away, which means if you invest $80, you'll have a compound annual return of around 14-15%. Now, this is based on you being patient at the $80 price point . And maybe we won't achieve that . Anything you buy or pay for this stock over $80 is because you either believe in the stock and its prospects much more than I do, or you are willing to accept a lower rate of return.
It's simple. Okay, now that we're done with the little discussion, let's move on . Good. So, only Tesla, only Tesla with these numbers. OK. So, that's based on 4 million cars or four million. Yes. 4 million cars delivered at $34,000 apiece. We have energy worth 50 billion. Semi-truck revenue, or more accurately, operating profit, in the billions.
Income from Tesla robot. Let me make sure that's correct. Oh, wait. OK. Yes. Here it is. Income from Tesla robot. Okay, great. So, the future value of Tesla , in my opinion, and I calculate all of these future values assuming a 30% growth after the end of 2030. And I assume a PEG ratio of 2.25. It's not as high as in pure service companies, given the large share of manufacturing at Tesla, but there's also a lot of technology there.
This gives me a price of $639 per Tesla share with approximately 4 billion shares outstanding. I'll round it up a bit , since we have about 3.9. If I buy the stock now at $310, I have a future value of $639. If all of this really happens, it would give me about a 19% return. If we don't sell more cars and stay at 2 million per year, the forecast for Tesla drops to $459.
$459 only gives a 10% return. And if we remove the Optimus robot from the calculations, which I think is very interesting. So, let's move on here. Let's rule out the Tesla robot completely. So, we have 2 million cars. We completely exclude the Tesla robot. This is how we calculate whether we have a safety margin here ?
Isn't that right? And if I do that, I get a valuation of $376, which if I buy it, or if the future value is $376, oh, I get...oops. Future value, I ruined everything. Wait a second. I think this is useful. 376 dollars. This is not easy. I only get a 5% return. If I buy it for 310 and it costs 376 without Optimus and with only 2 million cars, that's not the best profitability.
Better to buy Treasury bonds, right? This is why Tesla is under pressure. It's just a Tesla. If I take SpaceX, without Tesla. We already calculated this, and the fair value was about $139. I really think that if all of this happens, the merger of the companies at a very low price for Tesla will be very beneficial for SpaceX shareholders.
Now, if I were to be a little more cautious about Tesla, I would lower the number of cars to two million and include the revenue from the Tesla bot, assuming the companies merged. So, half of the revenue is from Tesla bot. Operating income is 3.1 billion, income from bots is 12.5 billion. And the number of cars is 2 million.
It might even be a little more conservative for SpaceX. This gives me a combined valuation of SpaceX and Tesla of $231 per share by the end of 2030. If I buy it for $80, that gives me...let me make sure I did it right. Wait. Yes. From 80 to 231. Yes. Good. Perfectly. Instead of 42% of total annual income, this gives me 30% of total annual income.
So, at $80, SpaceX is a better deal. Now, what about Tesla? How low does Tesla have to go to match this? Without Tesla. We have about 14% profitability. If we take a conservative option for Tesla, let's take 225. 225. The present value, I'm buying at 225. And then the future conservative value is 376.
So the present value is 225. That would give me about 14%. Yes. So, the target prices for purchasing independently: Tesla—$225. Independently SpaceX—80 dollars. These are the target prices for these two companies. These are very attractive numbers. This is where, in my opinion, conservatism comes in, and you become part of future growth.
Until then, wait. If a recession begins, these stocks will fall well below these levels, as all of these deadlines will be postponed. That's it. Now let me do a little summary for beginners vs. pros and then, yes, people will come out. This is normal. OK. Resume for beginners and professionals. Good.
So, let's think about this. 225 and 80. The newbie buys SpaceX regardless of the price. In reality, they probably paid $220 per share and are now probably at a loss of almost 50% on their investment. We warned against getting carried away by the post-IPO euphoria, and we were right that the stock would start to fall after a potential 30% increase, which is exactly what happened.
What are my predictions now? My prediction is this: if you buy SpaceX for less than $80 a share, I support it. This is not personalized financial advice. And if you buy Tesla for less than $225 a share, I approve of that too . This means we still have some way to go . But these are numbers you should write down.
These are the things, a little fundamental analysis. I hope you enjoyed it. Thank you very much for watching. I will enjoy this. And .
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