저자: Peter Schitt · 외국인
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Peter Schiff is joining me from euro pacific capital great to have you on as always Peter I want to talk everything with you not just gold today so let's start with the markets and follow on the discussion that we had with the gentleman what do you think is going on here well I think the markets are still in denial with respect to the underlying weakness of the US economy but I think the reason the markets have rallied off their februari lows is because it's now apparent and it should have been apparent earlier but that the Fed is not going to be raising interest rates many times if at all in 2016 despite comments earlier today from la card that he thought the Fed might raise rates two or three times this year I really doubt that we're going to get anything more from the Fed in the way of great hikes I still think that we're more likely to get a rate cut okay yeah I'm not going to argue with you definitely the Fed taking a position backing off here and there are a couple of key opportunities where they will have the chance to act but of course it's an election year as well so people are getting a little bit more skeptical about it you know basically do you think that 2016 are you sort of writing it off in terms of no fed action market goes higher well I think there will be some action but it might be an admission that the economy is much weaker than they originally believed and that they're going to come back with more stimulus either a rate cut a combination of a rate cut and relaunching of quantitative easing so I think that's what's happened I think absent that I don't think the market does go higher I think the only way the market goes higher is with a lot of help from the Fed okay so you think there's going to be a rate cut this year I want to be very clear on that and if so when yeah I think so but you know the problem is the Fed is trying to walk a fine line because they don't want to admit how weak the economy is when President Obama is trying to elect Hillary Clinton based on the strength of the economy and to cut rates as an admission from the Fed right so invasion don't hike they don't have to admit it right well but the problem is if the markets are so weak if the markets are really tanking I think the only way to stop the decline is going to be with some type of rate cut they're not going to be able to talk their way out of it and so they don't want the markets crashing into the election either so it all depends on where the markets are whether or not we get the rate hike for the election or after if the markets can still manage the state within a few percentage points of their highs then maybe the Fed could wait till after the election to have to do it but I think we're in a recession right now and there's a good chance that by the time we get the numbers on the second quarter because we could have a negative first quarter and the second quarter might be even weaker than the first so if we find out by July August that we're in a recession and you know the election is a few months away what is the Fed gonna do they may have to do something all right Jim Yuri oh you think we're going a little bit higher from here that's the markets telling you come back at theatre oh no Peter I actually from eighty percent of what Peter says I completely agree with I think the market could go higher just based on global liquidity not just the Fed the place I draw the line and I want to try to balance the Peters when I hear you talk to me it seems like you think it's a hundred percent absolute and that you see not any one bright spot anywhere in the economy is that the case is there any one thing you can look at that helps validate your broader argument says may be that strong whether it be the consumer you see nothing to write all about anywhere no I think I think the economy of the u.s.
is a disaster i think the Fed is one of the architects of that disaster I'm not letting the administration off the hook there's a lot of things that the President and Congress are doing to interfere with the economy but the Fed has been a principal impediment to real economic growth because it hasn't allowed a legitimate restructuring it's been blowing bubbles and preventing resources from being reallocated the way they need to be instead what you don't agree with if the Fed backed off now or backed off at any time in the last six or seven years there would have been a you know an absolute implosion that we would had to come back from that's I mean you believe that too right mean what else is the feds supposed to any time they've backed off wouldn't we have been in shambles yes but it would have been a healthy a process we have to cleanse the economy of all the problems that have been built up the feds the feds accurist will just take more drugs right so you can stay high you never have to deal with the underlying problems but they keep getting worse you mentioned a consumer earlier the consumer is a mess he's broke he has a lousy job if he's even still in the labor force maybe he has two or three part-time jobs he has no savings he has no home equity because he's probably renting now and he's buried under a pile of debt and all this is being kept together by the fed and it's just one big illusion and everybody wants to point to these low unemployment rates as if it tells the real story but it doesn't even tell a fraction of what's actually going on if anything it's yeah let me ask you this obviously you know you've been a bear for quite some time now and there are a lot of people on the street that agree with you there sort of just riding along with the market momentum what's going to be the catalyst that makes the bearish thesis come true remember I haven't been a bear on the stock market I've been a bear on the economy I've been a pair on the dollar now the dollar has risen over the past few years although it just had its worst quarter in five years and gold just had its best quarter in 30 years so i think that the quarter has been turned and i think the air is coming out of this dollar bubble but i think that my bearishness on the US economy has been vindicated I mean look this is the weakest recovery if you want to call to recovery in history so we haven't had the vibrant recovery that so many people were forecasting four five six years ago so i think i'm already vindicated on the fact that this hasn't worked and the only thing that you can point to is the low unemployment rate but if you look at all the other economic data we're getting data today that has never been this bad outside of a recession and in many cases this recovery for most people has been worse than a recession because the average american is poorer today than he was when the recovery began yeah right no way to go down there's no way to quantify you know the the rate of success or failure of the economy aside from the stock market Peter and the stock market is going higher well the stock market doesn't tell you anything the stock market was going higher right up and told the 2001 recession look how great the stock market was doing right before it went over a cliff and that brings me back to my central question then what's the catalyst where the shoe drops well again I think what the big catalyst is going to be is the recognition the admission by the Fed that the economy is we again or back in recession and the Fed is going to have to cut rates they're going to have to ignore the continuing increase in the Consumer Price Index so we're going to see rising inflation a weakening economy the Fed is going to be trying to stimulate the bottom is going to drop out of the dollar then we're going to have a currency crisis and then the Fed is going to be forced to raise rates to defend the dollar and this whole house of cards are going to come tumbling down and it's going to be a worse financial crisis than 2008 that is the endgame okay let's talk about the dollar and the feds impact they're certainly boosting gold as you mentioned Gold's had a good run this year up about sixteen percent a little bit of a pullback today on some dollars strengths where's the next stop short term let's not talk 5,000 down the line let's talk about in the next month or two remember a few months back when gold was still well below 1200 I said on your program that I thought when it got above 1,200 we would trigger some buying and we would quickly run up to 1,300 we didn't quite make it there we got just above 1280 and we're now consolidating the big run from 1050 up to 1280 I think we're in a trading range right now 1200 on the low side 1280 on the high side this is normal consolidation after such a big move what's so interesting to me is that none of the gold bears have really thrown in the towel I mean look at Goldman Sachs they're just as I sure that goal is going to collapse now as they were back in December I haven't seen any major brokerage firms put any buy recommendations on any of these gold stocks despite the fact that many of doubled or tripled this year you know they still have byes on financials that have had a horrible year but nobody's recommending gold so I still think we're climbing a wall of worry i think it's early in this new bull market which is really a continuation of the big bull market that began around 1999-2000 so i think once we break out of this consolidation once we clear through 1300 i think we can have a pretty quick move up to fourteen fifteen hundred when exactly that's going to be it's hard to say but i think there's a lot of momentum of this move and you know you're you're fast money traders should be buying at the low end of this trading range Peter what do you think Oldman's missing about the commodity relative that we've been experiencing well because they're still wedded to the old narrative they still expect the Fed to raise rates three times this year they still believe in this phony recovery they still think the dollar is going to go and they're wrong and you know unfortunately it's taking a lot for them to admit that I think at some point they're gonna have to stop themselves out of these losing trades I just don't know when but I'm not in any hurry for Goldman to capitulate the longer they stay short gold the happier it's going to make me all right one quick question before I let you go obviously an election year the markets are watching very closely are you supporting anyone in particular well you know I was a Rand Paul guy he dropped out so Ted Cruz is probably the closest ideologically to me and I think if he had the nomination I think you would probably be the best candidate the Republicans have nominated since Reagan as far as believing in the Constitution and believing in limited government but i don't know i might end up voting for gary johnson he's probably going to be the Libertarian candidate again I generally like to vote for what I like not the lesser of two evils so we'll see Donald Trump you know he says a lot of good stuff as far as identifying the problems America isn't great and we need to make it great again he talks about the trade deficits but those are a symptom of the problem the problem is big government regulation taxes the Fed that's why we have these trade deficits tariffs are not going to solve them they're going to make the problem worse though Trump does a good job of pointing out a lot of the problems but he doesn't have the right solutions
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