저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 피터 시프는 달러 강세는 일시적이며 달러가 곧 붕괴하고 금은 크게 오를 것이라고 주장한다. 달러 전망: 연준 금리인상 기대로 달러가 9개월 연속 상승해 12년 고점이라는 내러티브는 잘못됐다고 본다. 경상수지 적자가 14% 급증한 점 등 펀더멘털은 약하며, 달러는 붕괴할 것이라고 예상한다. 달러 붕괴 시나리오: 투자자들이 달러 숏/롱 포지션을 청산하면서 달러가 급락하고, 레버리지로 달러 베팅한 금융기관은 큰 손실을 볼 수 있다고 서브프라임 사례를 들어 경고한다. 포지션: 본인은 레버리지 없이 해외 주식(뉴질랜드, 싱가포르, 홍콩, 스위스, 노르웨이, 캐나다 등)에 투자하며 외환 익스포저를 간접 보유하고 있다. 최근 몇 년간 달러 강세로 환 손실이 났지만 일시적이라고 본다. 금: 연준의 무제한 QE와 중앙은행의 의도적 인플레이션 유도로 금 가격이 훨씬 오를 것이라고 본다. 목표가로 2,000~5,000달러를 언급했으며 현재 약 1,150달러 수준이라고 한다. 상한선은 없다고 주장한다. 리스크/조건: 레버리지나 옵션 등 시간 제약이 있는 투자자에게는 위험하다고 경고하며, 현금으로 보유하고 배당을 받으며 기다리는 전략을 권한다. 출연자 전망: 기간을 특정하지 않고 달러 붕괴와 금 상승을 장기적으로 확신하며, 주택 사례를 들어 시간이 걸려도 결국 실현될 것이라고 말한다.
다듬은 글
I'm talking with Peter Schiff. He's CEO of Europe Pacific Capital. And you just mentioned something about the dollar. And I wanted to ask you, so the the dollar index has been up nine months in a row at a 12-year high versus the euro. Janet Yellen talked about the economic effects of the strong dollar.
I do have to ask you, have you been surprised by the strength of the dollar in recent months? Well, I'm surprised that it rallied this much, but you know, it doesn't mean that it's permanent because you have everybody speculating, right? The conventional narrative is that the Fed is going to be raising rates and the rest of the world is going to be easing.
And it's based on that that speculators have bid up the dollar. But look, we got the current account deficit that came out today. It jumped by 14%. It's the biggest increase in two years. This would normally be negative for a currency. And of course that current account would be even higher if the Fed raised rates because we'd have to pay more interest to our overseas creditors.
So the fundamentals are weak, but the fundamentals don't matter right now when you've got this false narrative and the traders are, you know, running with it like a horse with a bit in its mouth. But look, we got a small taste yesterday of what could happen. The dollar had its biggest one-day decline since 2009.
Now they reversed it overnight. It was a strange chart that one day chart of the euro. It's like a spike and it came right back. Yeah. It's like a reflexive action right now to to buy the dollar on the dip. But when traders wake up to reality and realize how wrong these bets are, they're going to unwind these trades and the dollar is going to implode very quickly.
And I think the people who have been betting on the dollar and who have made a lot of paper profits, if they're caught in this when it reverses, they're going to end up losing a lot of money. Right. But on the flip side, the people who've been short the dollar and betting against it have have lost a lot of money.
Oh, yeah. I mean, if you're especially if you're leveraged and you're betting against the dollar, but look, people were losing money, betting against subprime for several years until the bubble burst. Uh, you know, and the people who were buying those mortgages and paying above par for them on leverage, thought they were so smart until the market collapsed.
And if the government didn't bail all these banks out, they all would have failed based on these bad bets. The question is, how many banks are going to fail when the dollar collapses? I wonder how many of our lending institutions are levered up, you know, short long the dollar and we'll see what happens when they get caught on that trade.
If that happens, you're absolutely right. But h how have you been positioned and how are you positioned now visa v the dollar? Well, I've been positioned the same way for a long time. I mean, we're not leveraged. What we do with our clients is we invest in overseas stocks and we get our exposure to foreign currencies through the foreign stocks that we own.
So we own stocks in places like New Zealand, Singapore, Hong Kong, Switzerland, Norway, Canada, you know, various places around the world. And so far over the last couple years, the currency exposure in the short run has worked against us. Even as the foreign stocks that we own have generally risen, they haven't risen enough to offset the the strength of the dollar.
But I think that's all temporary. I think when the dollar finally implodes, when people figure out the real state of our economy and what the Fed is really going to do, then I think all those gains are going to, you know, be revealed because they're being obscured right now by the overvaluation of the dollar.
But I think the real move in the dollar is going to be a crash. Okay. And presumably you're still bullish on gold based on that. Absolutely. It's the same scenario, right? traders are bearish on gold because they're bullish on the dollar and they're and and they believe the Fed's going to raise rates when they realize that they're not and they have to rush to unwind these short trades and get back out of the dollar.
I mean, if you thought gold went up a lot when the Fed did QE1 and two, right? Where do you see what's going to happen when they do QE4, right? Well, but but it again, it it rallied end of last year and people thought, okay, gold's back. It's come back down to like around 1150 as we're talking here today.
Where where do you see it going from here? I think it's going a lot higher. I mean, I've thrown out numbers 2,000 5,000. Ultimately, I can't tell because there's no real ceiling on gold because there's no floor on the dollar. When people realize that we can never raise rates and it's permanent QE, right, and the Fed can never shrink its balance sheet and it has no ability to control inflation.
Ultimately, it has to let it run rampant. Uh, then there's no place to hide. And you've got even the soundest central banks around the world deliberately creating inflation with negative interest rates, promising to debase their currency. In fact, the new mantra is that price stability is bad. We need rising consumer prices.
If we don't force consumers to pay more money for the things that they need and that they want, all hell's going to break loose. So, all central banks are now creating inflation. It's like, you know, your house is on, you know, firemen come to your house to set fires, not put them out. That's what we've got now with the central bank.
So, with all these central banks promising to destroy the value of money over time, right? What are you going to do to preserve your wealth? People are going to turn to gold in a big way all around the world. Look, I I know you believe this, but you know, as a wise man once said, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
So, you're you're just gonna you're going to stay long gold and bet and expect this dollar decline to come forever, no matter how long it takes. Well, it's not going to take forever. I mean, people said the same thing to me about the housing market. I mean, how long are you going to rent your home? You know, and I rented for years and I eventually bought a house and I paid less than half of what the guy who sold it to me paid, but I rented for a long time uh waiting for that to happen.
And you know, so I don't think it's going to take decades. I'm, you know, I'm surprised it's taken this long. But I do believe that the fact that it we've had to wait so long, it's an even bigger payday because all the problems, right, have gotten bigger because we've been able to delay the day of reckoning.
But I can stay solvent if I'm not on leverage. Th applies to traders who have levered up. If you're in options and you have like a time limit or you borrowed a lot of money, that's a problem. But if you just own positions for cash and especially if you own foreign stocks, you're collecting dividends, time is your friend.
You can wait it out and eventually you're going to get paid. All right, time is not our friend for this segment, but we do have to have leave it there, Peter. Thanks very much. Hey, anytime. Let us know what you think in the comments section below or send us a tweet at Yahoo Finance.
Comments 0