저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 피터 시프는 미국 경제가 이미 침체에 들어갔으며 2008년보다 더 깊고 길 것이라고 주장하고, 연준의 금리 인상과 양적완화 정책을 강하게 비판한다. 지난 예측 검증: 연준이 금리를 올린 뒤 자신이 말한 세 가지(미 증시 하락, 금 상승, 달러 하락)가 모두 맞았다고 주장한다. 금 가격은 약 9% 올랐고, 달러는 10월 이후 최저 수준이며, 증시는 이미 약세장이라고 설명한다. 경기 전망: 미국 경제는 현재 침체 상태이며 이번 침체는 2008~2009년 대침체보다 길고 깊을 것이라고 본다. 고용·소비 비판: 고용 증가는 전일제 제조업 일자리 감소를 서비스업 저임금 임시직·시간제로 대체한 결과이며, 자동차 판매 호조는 곧 터질 자동차 금융 거품 때문이라고 주장한다. 부채 비판: 국가부채가 오바마 행정부 기간 두 배로 늘어 19조 달러를 넘었고, 연준 대차대조표에는 부실자산이 쌓여 있으며, 기업 레버리지는 역대 최고 수준이라고 지적한다. 가계 상황: 가계 실소득은 부족하며 많은 사람이 부모와 함께 살 수밖에 없다고 설명한다. 정책 전망: 연준은 금리 인상을 하는 척하지만 결국 다시 제로 금리 이하로 내리고 QE4를 단행할 것이라고 예상한다. 금리 인상 이후 금리 인하가 이어질 것이라는 입장이다. 정책 처방: 저금리와 양적완화는 실패했으며 금리를 올리고 정부는 재정을 균형 맞춰야 한다고 주장한다. 진행자 Bob Baur의 반박: 가계 재무상태가 2008년보다 훨씬 좋고, 은행 자본이 재확충됐으며, 민간부채가 낮고, 고용과 임금 상승, 유가 하락에 따른 실질소득 증가를 들어 침체설을 부정한다. 출연자 전망 요약: 시프는 미 경기침체·증시 약세·금 상승·달러 약세·연준 금리 재인하를 전망한다.
다듬은 글
now he's completely wrong I mean if he's being honest he doesn't know what he's talking about remember when I was on your program before the Federal Reserve made the mistake of raising rates I said that three things were going to happen in the markets if the Fed raised rates that the US stock market would go way down that gold would go up and that the dollar would go down and now all three of those forecasts have come true in fact both is now about nine percent higher than it was the day after the Fed raised rates you reported earlier the dollars at the lowest has been since October and the stock market i believe is already in a bear market and in fact i think the US economy is in a recession right now and I think this recession is going to last longer and it's going to be even deeper than the Great Recession of 2008 2009 so we're going to have to rename that recession because this one is going to be greater a bobb degree well it's hard to see why it could be a greater household balance sheets which was really the problem before and all of the mortgage-backed securities that were based on poor household balance sheets households are in much better shape banks have been recapitalised debt house private debt is far lower than it was before job growth is fantastic we had a record car sales last year housing activity is still really good consumer average wages are going to hit three percent this year they're already rising at the fastest rate of the cycle and the real incomes with the drop in food and energy prices are soaring you know we've never had a recession from a plunging oil prices only because of a spike that's not happening now yeah you know that's yep that's that's all pure fantasy you know the only reason that jobs are being created is because so many Americans now have two or three part-time jobs we're destroying real jobs goods-producing full-time jobs and we're replacing them with service sector jobs low-paying temporary part-time work that's the real story yes we have a car sales going up because there's an auto bubble you know we have a bubble in auto finance that's going to burst so this this recovery is a fantasy and we have a lot more debt the national debt has doubled the Obama administration a national jet just went through 19 trillion we have a lot more debt now than we had eight years ago the Federal Reserve has a huge balance sheet full of toxic debt it's got what afford a half trillion dollar balance sheet corporations are levered up like like never before and you know households they don't have the real income I mean that's why you have so many people living with their parents because they can't afford to move out this has been a decimation in the US economy and people are just looking at some of these superficial numbers and not looking beneath the surface to support a disaster the Fed has made of this economy they took all the problems that we had in 2008 and made them much worse okay so so Peter here's the thing right I mean how do we get ourselves out of this old rut that we've dug ourselves in you've got that Davos consensus or the elite they just wrapped up a little while ago saying the look the way forward is for central banks to continue stepping on the pedal goes even deeper and further into this whole QE experiment everybody I mean they're leaving on everybody to do that the ECB boj except for the Fed because they're going the other way how hard is it going to be the better the Fed defenders only track the Fed is only yep the Fed is only pretending to go the other way I said this on your program that if the Fed actually raised rates the next thing they would do is cut them you know everybody wants to pretend the Fed is going to raise rates because the US is supposedly the only example that quantitative easing actually works but it didn't work it was a complete failure but everybody wants a percent pretend it was a success so they want to pretend that we're going to be raising rates we're not we're going to go back to zero in fact we're going to go negative we're probably going to be lower than Europe or Japan and we're going to back up the truck with QE 4 which is going to be bigger than qe3 at but none of it works all of this is counterproductive it's all like throwing gasoline on a fire it's all this cheap money that is the biggest problem in the global economy the answer is not more cheap money the answer is to reverse course we need higher interest rates not lower interest rates and governments need to balance their budgets not keep spending more money and expecting central banks to monetize it
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